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Example of getAffordances function used by spammer agent to explore the value of new capabilities (e.g. image spam) to avoid detection 

Example of getAffordances function used by spammer agent to explore the value of new capabilities (e.g. image spam) to avoid detection 

Source publication
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Information security is often called an 'arms race', but little is known about the co-evolutionary dynamics of innovation. To facilitate such research, we define two formal methods that can be executed by computational agents in a multi-agent system. First, we formalize the definition of capabilities and business models as a 'viable system'. We gen...

Contexts in source publication

Context 1
... an inventive problem solving technique, the spammer could use this pattern to evaluate specific alternative capabilities that would fit. Among the alternatives is the capability to convert text to images. Because text-only spam filters ignore the content of images, this method almost completely bypasses the filter. This can be described in the following pattern language syntax: We would expect that both d and r would significantly increase, dramatically increasing spammer profit π . In a simulation, the spammer agent would discover these implications by invoking the getAffordance and evaluateAffordance functions described previously in section 2. The following is a description of the inputs, outputs and relationships of getAffordance, shown in Figure 5 for this example. The performance dimension is d , the ratio of emails delivered to emails sent. The capability being queried is ‘evade filters’ which provide the affordance ‘avoid detection’. (These names refer back to the formal ontology used in this model. Computationally, they are simply object names that encapsulate the specifics of the contextual affordance algorithms.) The spammer agent provides a list of inputs, α , that describe the specific context of this capability. This includes the set of functions E , which are used to evade filters. These include combinations of email formats (e.g. plain text, HTML, CSS, image, JavaScript, etc.) and evasion methods (e.g. bad word obfuscation, good word insertion, tokenization avoidance, etc.). The other agent inputs describe the sophistication of the capability relative to other capabilities (i.e. ‘novelty’, ‘effectiveness’, ‘automation’) or describe the learning required to master the capability (i.e. ‘accumulated experience’, ‘testing resources’) ...
Context 2
... other input, describes from the defensive capability of spam filters, again specified in term of the email formats and evasion methods they cover, and their relative effectiveness for each combination. There are two outputs: the performance range function R and the learning function L , which are portrayed graphically in Figure 5. The performance range function can take one of two shapes, labeled by the shape parameter φ . Both function variations have a minimum d  , representing the entry-level performance with no experience, and a  maximum d , representing the highest level of performance when the capability is fully mastered by tuning and learning-by-doing. In this example, d is simply the mean of a Gaussian probability distribution, but it could include other parameters. The first function shape applies to all combinations of filter capabilities. The second function shape applies only to specific filter capabilities, as in the case of image spam. The whole idea behind the innovation of image spam is that it introduces a format not previously covered by spam filters, or not covered well. The learning function L is a function of time and has two shapes specified by λ – inverse negative exponential and sigmoid. The learning function specifies the rate that performance will improve from minimum to maximum given a constant investment in learning. Finally, the arrows show how the inputs influence the outputs. E influences the domain of the performance range function. ‘Novelty’, ...

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Citations

... Another major opportunity for future research would be to incorporate the capabilities and strategies of threat agents in order to estimate the frequency of breach episode types, and also to estimate the likely harm that different threat agents might cause. Along these lines, another important extension would be to model the dynamics of adversarial innovation in a way that accounts for the unfolding co-evolutionary landscape of attack and defense capabilities (e.g. Thomas (2011b)). Finally, it would be very valuable to perform research that can shed light on the social processes of risk management to see if the proposed methods actually improve individual, organization, and social decision processes. ...
Article
This paper proposes an analysis framework and model for estimating the impact of information security breach episodes. Previous methods either lack empirical grounding or are not sufficiently rigorous, general or flexible. There has also been no consistent model that serves theoretical and empirical research, and also professional practice. The proposed framework adopts an ex ante decision frame consistent with rational economic decision-making, and measures breach consequences via the anticipated costs of recovery and restoration by all affected stakeholders. The proposed branching activity model is an event tree whose structure and branching conditions can be estimated using probabilistic inference from evidence – 'Indicators of Impact'. This approach can facilitate reliable model estimation when evidence is imperfect, incomplete, ambiguous, or contradictory. The proposed method should be especially useful for modeling consequences that extend beyond the breached organization, including cascading consequences in critical infrastructures. Monte Carlo methods can be used to estimate the distribution of aggregate measures of impact such as total cost. Non-economic aggregate measures of impact can also be estimated. The feasibility of the proposed framework and model is demonstrated through case studies of several publicly disclosed breach episodes.