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A new method to project the impacts of global trade scenarios on international freight flows is presented. The model uses international trade scenarios developed by the Economics Department of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development for the period 2004-2060 with alternative liberalization scenarios. A global freight network model...
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This report makes a concerted effort to draw attention to a trade agenda that remained largely ignored during the China-LAC trade boom. Mesmerized by epic export gains, both sides of the relationship largely looked the other way when it came to tariffs and non-tariff barriers and, as a result, have essentially failed to document, measure their impa...
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... A possible way to approach this is to set up a multi-model transport model, as has been done on a national (e.g. for the USA, Australia, Vietnam) and continental scale (e.g. Europe) (Jones et al. 2011;Park et al. 2011;Martínez et al. 2015;de Jong et al. 2017;Berli et al. 2018;Oh et al. 2019), and model disruptions to hinterland transport networks and the changes in freight flows to ports. Hence, by aggregating all possible hinterland disruption scenarios for each port, and by quantifying the potential freight losses or extra rerouting costs of the events, a port-hinterland risk metric could be constructed which can complement the risk analysis framework of the local critical port assets as described above. ...
... technical), is highly desirable for maritime disruption analysis. Such models do exist (Tavasszy et al. 2011;Martínez et al. 2015), but have, to the best of our knowledge, not yet been utilised for systemic risk analysis. ...
Ports are embedded in different networks, including the local critical infrastructure network, the regional hinterland transport network and the global maritime transport network. These networks are exposed to a variety of natural hazards, which cause disruptions that can propagate to other network components, resulting in wider supply chain losses. However, the risks of such indirect network disruptions, or systemic risks, are often not considered in risk analyses of ports. We propose a systemic risk framework for different networks interconnected through ports, and describe the state-of-the-art risk modelling approaches to quantify systemic risks. In addition, we present a port risk layering framework that can help identify how resilience against systemic risks can be improved. As climate change will likely increase the occurrence of natural hazards to ports and transport networks, efforts to enhance system-wide resilience should be considered, alongside port adaptation, to prevent exacerbation of supply chain losses in the future.
... distance, island state), the presence of alternative (fast and cheaper) modes, the value to weight ratio of the commodities, and the standard of living of the importing country (e.g. quality of logistics services) 41 . ...
... To the best of our knowledge, the OxMarTrans is the most detailed global maritime transport model available. It builds upon previously developed maritime transport flow models, either specifically for container flows 5,68 or multiple vessel types 41 , that are used to allocate trade between countries on the maritime transport network. ...
We quantify the criticality of the world’s 1300 most important ports for global supply chains by predicting the allocation of trade flows on the global maritime transport network, which we link to a global supply-chain database to evaluate the importance of ports for the economy. We find that 50% of global trade in value terms is maritime, with low-income countries and small islands being 1.5 and 2.0 times more reliant on their ports compared to the global average. The five largest ports globally handle goods that embody >1.4% of global output, while 40 ports add >10% of domestic output of the economies they serve, predominantly small islands. We identify critical cross-border infrastructure dependencies for some landlocked and island countries that rely on specific ports outside their jurisdiction. Our results pave the way for developing new strategies to enhance the resilience and sustainability of port infrastructure and maritime trade. A new study presents a new global modeling framework to explore the links between ports, maritime transport and global supply-chains, and identifies critical links and dependencies between 1300 ports and the economies that depend on them.
... Recently, a few macroeconomic studies have investigated the shipping emissions characteristics linked with international trade 19,[24][25][26][27][28] , indicative of a growing focus on the trade-driven analysis of shipping emissions. However, these evaluations were conducted based on empirical parameters of shipping energy efficiency, which have poor linkage with actual ship activities. ...
... In contrast, a lower TEEI-W is observed on routes in the Southern Hemisphere due to the frequent traffic of energy-efficient vessels such as bulk carriers. Although the total average TEEI-W for global fleets has generally shown a decreasing trend for the past few years and is expected to continuously decrease, the heterogeneous performance on different shipping routes has been ignored in past estimations of shipping emissions as well as in long-term shipping forecasts 2, 26 . ...
The ambitious targets for shipping emissions reduction and challenges for mechanism design call for new approaches to encourage decarbonization. Here we build a compound model chain to deconstruct global international shipping emissions to fine-scale trade flows and propose trade-linked indicators to measure shipping emissions efficiency. International maritime trade in 2018 contributes 746.2 Tg to shipping emissions of CO2, of which 17.2% is contributed from ten out of thousands of trade flows at the country level. We argue that potential unfairness exists if allocating shipping emissions responsibility to bilateral traders due to external beneficiaries. However, a huge shipping emissions-reduction potential could be expected by optimizing international trade patterns, with a maximum reaching 38% of the current total. Our comprehensive modelling system can serve as a benchmark tool to support the construction of a systematic solution and joint effort from the shipping industry and global trade network to address climate change.
... distance, island state), the presence of alternative (fast and cheaper) modes, the value to weight ratio of the commodities, and the income of the importing country (i.e. ability to afford air transport) 34 . For instance, low-income countries mainly export low value bulk goods, for which maritime transport is the only viable option, and relatively few high valued goods that are typically transported by aeroplane 35 . ...
... We assume that every country pair can be connected using one transhipment, which add 18h hours to the transit time 60 . We add a dwell time (time goods spend at an airport) to the airports are set in line with previous research 34 , and summarized in Supplementary Table 3. ...
... We can create shortest paths between all country pairs using Dijkstra's shortest path algorithm 62 , which is set to zero if no connection is found. The transit time between countries is based on different speed per road type, which are taken from Martínez et al. 34 , and summarized in Supplementary Table 3. We run the same shortest path algorithm again, but now using the time (speed times distance) as the weight. ...
Ports form the backbone of the global economy. By combining a vast database of ship tracking data with bilateral trade data and input-output tables, we highlight the critical role of specific ports in global supply chains and economies. For some countries, we find that 43.5% of economic activity is dependent on trade going through a single port. The top ten global ports influence 9.3% of the global economy, of which the port of Shanghai alone embeds 1.7% of global output. Ports are even more critical in some sectors, such as the mining and quarrying sector, for which 82% of trade is transported by maritime transport. We estimate how changes in final demand will be routed through ports, revealing that for every US$1000 increase in final demand a country’s ports experience a US$18.3 increase in imports on average, and up to US$108 increase in low income countries and small islands.
... share-and-share alike for derived products). An increasing number of transportation studies have made use of OSM data, including measuring pedestrian accessibility (Zielstra & Hochmair, 2012), emergency evacuation (Lu, Liu, Thomas, Bhaduri, & Han, 2015), multimodal routing for people with physical disabilities (Weyrer, Hochmair, & Paulus, 2014), general multimodal transport (Perrine, Khani, & Ruiz-Juri, 2015), measuring urban growth and accessibility (Quir os & Mehndiratta, 2014), modeling freight emissions (Martinez, Kauppila, & Castaing, 2015), and modeling bicycle volumes from count data (Gosse & Clarens, 2014). Proponents of open-source software, from which OSM takes inspiration in name and approach, highlight the potential benefits of self-motivated and skilled volunteers, the ability of map users to correct errors, and adaptability to a wide range of uses (Raymond, 2005). ...
With rapid growth in bicycling, timely and spatially rich bicycling infrastructure data are essential for understanding determinants of ridership, equity of access, and potential for future developments. OpenStreetMap (OSM) is a collaborative global map that was built by volunteers and is promising for active transportation research. In this article, we use OSM to inventory bicycling infrastructure in six Canadian cities, compare it to municipal open data, and provide guidance for practitioners using OSM data. We conducted an evaluation of OSM and open data, overall and for four categories of bicycle infrastructure: cycle tracks; on-street bicycle lanes; paths (bicycle only or multiuse); and local street bikeways. We found that the concordance in terms of total length of OSM infrastructure to open data infrastructure very high in two of the six cities (< ±2%), and reasonably high in all cities (maximum difference ±30%). Concordance for infrastructure categories was highest for on-street bicycle lanes, which were the most common, and easily identifiable type of bicycle infrastructure in the OSM data, and lowest for cycle tracks and local street bikeways, both of which are new or relatively rare infrastructure types in some Canadian cities. In some cases, OSM was more detailed and timely than open data. A challenge in OSM is consistent tagging of bicycle infrastructure types. We encourage practitioners to consider OSM data for multicity studies, but to be mindful of potential inconsistencies in attribution and local definitions. We also recommend users of OSM to publish data queries for repeatability.
... Their study combined a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with approximate value to weight ratios, fixed mode splits, bilateral great-circle distances between countries, and emission factors to estimate the changes in global emissions associated with international trade as a result of various trade liberalization schemes. More recently, Martinez et al. provided a framework to predict the impacts of different global trade scenarios on international freight flows (3). Their framework is suitable for use to assess the capacity of existing global transport infrastructure to handle expected international trade flow changes or to identify the main bottlenecks that may emerge in the global transport network. ...
... The subscripts of the w i,j,k,l,m,n can be dropped when data are limited, but their presence is otherwise useful, because they capture supply-chain-specific characteristics that may affect the value to weight ratio. For example, the marinespecific weight-to-value model of Martinez et al. suggested that more expensive goods were transported farther away (less weight per value) and that exports to less developed countries were more weight intensive than exports to more developed countries (3). ...
Canada has recently made progress with several free trade agreements (FTAs), and although the government has carried out considerable analysis of their potential impact on the Canadian economy, little to no work has been done to assess the potential impact on Canada's transportation system. The objective of the research was to estimate the impacts of recent and forthcoming FTAs on Canada's domestic trade infrastructure. This study extended a typical computable general equilibrium simulation of an FTA by estimating high-level domestic supply chain characteristics (i.e., subnational region of origin or destination, subnational region of exit or entry, international transportation mode, port of clearance) and by converting the resulting trade flows to freight flows measured in tonnage. The results indicate that the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) between Canada and the European Union (EU) may have had large impacts on Canada's Continental and Atlantic Gateways, especially at the Port of Montreal, Quebec, as a result of trade creation with the EU. CETA also has had impacts on various crossings at the U.S. border as a result of trade diversion with the United States. Simulations, however, suggested that the Canada-Korea Free Trade Agreement has had relatively small impacts, mostly concentrated in the Asia-Pacific Gateway, particularly at the Port of Vancouver, British Columbia. Although the impacts were FTA-specific, this research demonstrated the need to consider FTAs in commodity forecasting and freight transportation planning, because they could make sizable changes to future freight flows on domestic transportation infrastructure.
The relatively stable economic performance of Asia and the Pacific conceals increasing downside risks to regional progress in implementing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. In an era of uncertainty, bold and wise policies are needed to make growth inclusive and sustainable, i.e., “putting people and planet first.”
A comprehensive assessment of the investment needed to reach the Sustainable Development Goals in the region by 2030 estimates an additional $1.5 trillion per year to end poverty and hunger, provide basic health care, a quality education, enabling infrastructure and clean energy for all, and for climate action and living in harmony with nature. These “ambitions beyond growth” are largely affordable for most countries in the region, given available public and private resources. Strong development partnerships and regional cooperation are essential to ensure that all countries complete this important journey.
