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The Philippines was among the most infected countries in East Asia at the onset of the COVID-19 outbreak. This study analyzes how international trade on various margins was affected by the country's own lockdown policies and those of trading partners. Using a monthly series of product-by-country data for the period from January 2019 to December 202...
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Citations
... In the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, the 'stringency index' variable is an aggregate score ranging from 0 to 100, measuring containment and closure policy indicators and public information campaigns. Based on this information and following the methodology of Socrates and Lashitew (2021) and Arenas et al. (2022), we identify an event of 'strict lockdown' (SLD) in the first month when a country's stringency index surpasses the global median for the respective year. Thus in 2020, an SLD was indicated by a score of over 64.35 and in 2021, over 58.8. ...
... In this estimation, the regressors of interest are a set of nonparametric event indicators defined relative to the event (Schmidheiny & Siegloch, 2020). Following Socrates and Adisu (2021) and Arenas et al. (2022), the event-study design is estimated as follows: ...
... In addition to, outside the Philippines, Mutreja et al. (2018) reported that importation allows developing countries to gain more comparative advantage and improve resource allocation. The COVID-19 lockdown has also been reported to affect the trade behavior of the Philippines -the domestic lockdown had no impact yet external lockdown had, affecting both imports and exports (Arenas et al., 2022). ...
This thesis aims to determine if the Marshall-Lerner (ML) Condition is satisfied within the Philippine economy. This is primarily motivated by the continuous fluctuations in the Philippine Peso (PHP) to US Dollar (USD) exchange rate and decreasing trade balance; given that the ML condition emphasizes the possibility of economic growth with currency devaluation, this study aims to assess whether the strategic depreciation of the PHP contra USD is beneficial for the Philippine economy. A Canonical Cointegrating Regression was conducted to estimate long-run trade balance, export, and import price elasticities. The ML condition was analyzed in three aspects: trade balance elasticity, summation of export and import price elasticities, and the use of the Generalized ML Condition model. All three long-run analyses indicate that the ML condition is unsatisfied within the Philippine Economy, implying that strategic PHP depreciation does not necessarily indicate improvement in the trade balance.
... They also concluded that the import side of the service trade was more negatively affected by Covid-19, which resulted from the travel restrictions that reduce human mobility. Arenas, et al. (2022), in their study where they analyzed the impact of quarantine measures on the Philippines' foreign trade, indicated that the quarantine measures implemented by the Philippines' trading partners had a negative impact on the Philippines' imports. On the other hand, no significant result was found that the measures implemented by the Philippines affected the imports of the Philippines. ...
... Accordingly, even though the cessation of economic activity due to the shock decisions adopted worldwide significantly reduced the demand for imports, the results show that this effect will disappear in the long turm. Considering the long-term impact of Covid-19, the studies carried out by Mukunoki (2021), Caporale, et al. (2022) and Arenas et al. (2022) are in line with the results of this study. Indeed, Liu et al. (2021) emphasized that imports did not actually stop during the Covid-19 period, but were only postponed. ...
The Covid-19 pandemic, which deeply affected world trade, had a negative impact on Turkey’s foreign trade, as well. However, whether the adverse effect of the Covid-19 on imports is lasting or not is an important subject worth studying. Employing quarterly data for the period 2013: q1-2022q1, this paper aims to analyze the long-term effects of the Covid-19 on Turkey’s imports via the ARDL bound test approach. No long-term significant relationship was found between Covid-19 and imports in the paper in which the dummy variable, cumulative number of cases and deaths, number of new cases and deaths, number of stay at home requirements, and the average number of days off work were applied. The results show that, although imports showed a significant breakdown due to the measures taken at the beginning of Covid-19, the long-term effect became insignificant with the relaxation of the measures in the later stages of the pandemic, the end of the panic atmosphere, the reversal of pessimistic expectations and the shift to remote work. In addition, it is concluded that the demand postponed at the beginning of the pandemic, combined with high inflation in the following periods, turned to panic purchases, breaking the connection between Covid-19 and imports.
... They also concluded that the import side of the service trade was more negatively affected by Covid-19, which resulted from the travel restrictions that reduce human mobility. Arenas, et al. (2022), in their study where they analyzed the impact of quarantine measures on the Philippines' foreign trade, indicated that the quarantine measures implemented by the Philippines' trading partners had a negative impact on the Philippines' imports. On the other hand, no significant result was found that the measures implemented by the Philippines affected the imports of the Philippines. ...
... Accordingly, even though the cessation of economic activity due to the shock decisions adopted worldwide significantly reduced the demand for imports, the results show that this effect will disappear in the long turm. Considering the long-term impact of Covid-19, the studies carried out by Mukunoki (2021), Caporale, et al. (2022) and Arenas et al. (2022) are in line with the results of this study. Indeed, Liu et al. (2021) emphasized that imports did not actually stop during the Covid-19 period, but were only postponed. ...
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... They also concluded that the import side of the service trade was more negatively affected by Covid-19, which resulted from the travel restrictions that reduce human mobility. Arenas, et al. (2022), in their study where they analyzed the impact of quarantine measures on the Philippines' foreign trade, indicated that the quarantine measures implemented by the Philippines' trading partners had a negative impact on the Philippines' imports. On the other hand, no significant result was found that the measures implemented by the Philippines affected the imports of the Philippines. ...
... Accordingly, even though the cessation of economic activity due to the shock decisions adopted worldwide significantly reduced the demand for imports, the results show that this effect will disappear in the long turm. Considering the long-term impact of Covid-19, the studies carried out by Mukunoki (2021), Caporale, et al. (2022) and Arenas et al. (2022) are in line with the results of this study. Indeed, Liu et al. (2021) emphasized that imports did not actually stop during the Covid-19 period, but were only postponed. ...
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... Studies providing evidence of the impact of COVID-19 on international trade have been on the increase. They have so far examined the effect of the virus on global value chains (Javorcik, 2020;Vidya and Prabheesh, 2020;Egger and Zhu, 2021;Castañeda-Navarrete et al., 2020;Espitia et al., 2021;Che et al., 2021;Hayakawa and Mukunoki, 2021a), trade policies (Baldwin and Evenett, 2020;Evenett, 2020;Mendoza, 2021;Brenton et al., 2022), export and import flows (Maliszewska et al., 2020;Büchel et al., 2020;Zhao et al., 2021;Minondo, 2021;Hayakawa and Mukunoki, 2021b;Rose et al., 2021;Fang et al., 2022) and COVID-19 lockdown measures (Majune and Addisu, 2021;Hayakawa and Mukunoki, 2021b;Pei et al., 2021;Arenas et al., 2022). These studies have mainly been cross-country aggregate analyses with few exceptions, employing various approaches in their analysis (descriptive statistics, regression model, gravity model, computable general equilibrium model, differencein-differences, propensity score matching, logistic regression and event-study methodology). ...
... Monthly data is prevalent among papers except for Majune and Addisu (2021) who applied weekly-level data. Majune and Addisu (2021) and Arenas et al. (2022) are closely related to our work because they employed an event-study methodology in their analysis. Majune and Addisu (2021) found that COVID-19 had an asymmetric effect on Kenya's international trade: exports increased by an average of 13% while imports dropped by an average of 23% between July 1, 2019, and June 30, 2020. 1 The introduction of lockdown measures by trading partners of the Philippines affected its imports more than exports, leading to 7% and 56% monthly average drops in export and import values, respectively, according to Arenas et al. (2022). ...
... Majune and Addisu (2021) and Arenas et al. (2022) are closely related to our work because they employed an event-study methodology in their analysis. Majune and Addisu (2021) found that COVID-19 had an asymmetric effect on Kenya's international trade: exports increased by an average of 13% while imports dropped by an average of 23% between July 1, 2019, and June 30, 2020. 1 The introduction of lockdown measures by trading partners of the Philippines affected its imports more than exports, leading to 7% and 56% monthly average drops in export and import values, respectively, according to Arenas et al. (2022). We closely follow the two studies with a focus on Indonesia and in turn make three contributions to this literature. ...
... The COVID-19 outbreak has caused a number of problems all over the world in a variety of fields, including education, the environment, society, health, and many more [3]. According to a research by the International Labour Organization (ILO), one of the main areas in the Philippines that has been adversely impacted by the pandemic is the labor market [4]. In addition, according to historical data from the World Bank, the Services sector significantly influences the nation's gross domestic product (GDP), accounting for a 61.42% main proportion compared to the Industry and Agricultural sectors [5]. ...
By the beginning of 2020, the illness had been named as COVID-19, which had spread due to its extreme severity affecting multiple industries and sectors throughout the world. To protect the public's health and safety, the Philippine government has established a number of quarantine regulations and travel restrictions in reaction to the current COVID-19 outbreak. Nonetheless, the ILO predicted that the pandemic would initially disrupt the economy and labor markets, affecting 11 million employees, or around 25% of the workforce in the Philippines. Therefore, the government continues to urge employers of local companies and enterprises to use alternative work plans, such as a WFH – work-from-home operation in accordance with the established policies. In line with the concept of telework, several studies have already been carried out, though some were declared inconclusive and require additional study. Hence, in this research, a mobile application was created to evaluate the employee’s telework capability assessment using a Fuzzy-based model which utilizes Google AppSheet, Apps Script, and Sheets. The developed mobile application is able to provide capacity evaluation utilizing the four key input variables, which are also reasonably characterized for potential telecommuting cost evaluation.
... Majune and Addisu (2021) find that the introduction of lockdown measures by Kenya's trading partners had a negative effect on imports, which fell by 23% on average after the measures were put in place. Looking the the Philippines, Arenas et al. (2022) find that the drop in imports has been even larger (-57% compared to pre-pandemic levels). in trade partners is associated with a reduction of imports of durable goods. Also, the negative effect of lower mobility is stronger for sectors which rely more on imported inputs. ...
Despite being a critical sector, Philippine agriculture still faces challenges in achieving sustainable productivity and resilience, especially exacerbated by climate change, limited funding, and fragmented research systems. To understand the complex realities on how the government allocated funds and focus for this situation, this paper examines the policy landscape and current situations of investment prioritization in the Philippines’ farming system research and extension (FSRE). Through a review of government policies, strategic frameworks, and budget allocations in the national expenditure, this study aims to identify key drivers and barriers shaping the investment decisions within the country’s FSRE. It analyzes the effectiveness of the current policy instruments in addressing the sector’s needs, and the disconnect between research outputs and extension services. Findings reveal that the budget allocation for agricultural research and extension is mainly anchored in the country’s agricultural banner programs. The study further reveals the significant gaps in coordination between research institutions, extension networks, and policymakers. It results in suboptimal resource allocation, especially in national expenditure programming. Despite gaining government attention, investment prioritization often fails to reflect the diverse needs of the smallholder farmers, indigenous communities, and marginalized groups. This paper concludes with actionable recommendations for improving the efficiency and inclusivity of the investment strategies that advocate for a more integrated, responsive, and farmer-centric approach to FSRE in the Philippines. Moreover, research implementation and budget allocation must encourage grassroot participation, making the output people-powered research. In so doing, it aims to enhance the country’s agricultural productivity, sustainability, and food security in the face of evolving global challenges.
Purpose
This study analyses how latent variables: environmental hostility, entrepreneurial orientation and dynamic capabilities are demonstrated in practice during the COVID-19 pandemic. Coming from mixed-method research, which is an explanatory sequential research design; this paper aims to provide only the qualitative, practical manifestations and validations of the variables previously tested and analysed quantitatively.
Design/methodology/approach
A case study approach was used whereby open-ended, semi-structured series of interviews was conducted to extract narratives from two owner–managers of medium-scale manufacturer-exporter agro-processing firms in the Philippines. Thematic analysis using deductive reasoning was used to analyse the collected narratives.
Findings
The analysis showed qualitative evidence of a possible intervention of entrepreneurial orientation and dynamic capabilities between the effects of the hostile environment brought about by the pandemic on the firms’ export performance. In addition, organisational resilience was observed to possibly moderate the relationship between the firm’s entrepreneurial orientation and dynamic capabilities. Resilience takes time (years) to develop; with an entrepreneurial behaviour, a continuous enhancement and acquisition of resources, capabilities, knowledge reflects a robust and adaptive organisation during adversity.
Social implications
The role of education and research institutions was highlighted in the development of dynamic capabilities of firms. The entrepreneurial resilience, however, reflects the individual characteristic of the owner–managers that manifests in the firm’s overall posture toward the overall goal of protecting the industry from its downfall.
Originality/value
Qualitative evidences composed of direct experiences from key informants served valuable and contextual (Philippine agro-processing industry) validations to the theoretical relationships of variables being analysed.
