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![Distribution of occurrence pixels (5 arc minutes, red dots).
The brown colors indicate producer groups by area of arabica coffee harvested in each country [27].](profile/Christian-Bunn/publication/283270432/figure/fig8/AS:341844023103509@1458513374613/Distribution-of-occurrence-pixels-5-arc-minutes-red-dots-The-brown-colors-indicate.png){kind=tracking}
Distribution of occurrence pixels (5 arc minutes, red dots). The brown colors indicate producer groups by area of arabica coffee harvested in each country [27].
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Cultivation of Coffea arabica is highly sensitive to and has been shown to be negatively impacted by progressive climatic changes. Previous research contributed little to support forward-looking adaptation. Agro-ecological zoning is a common tool to identify homolo-gous environments and prioritize research. We demonstrate here a pragmatic approach...
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We developed models for simulating trends over time as functions of the thermal index and models for estimating the levels of infestation of the coffee leaf miner and coffee berry borer and the severity of disease for coffee leaf rust and cercospora, the main phytosanitary problems in coffee crops around the world. We used historical series of clim...
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... assamica adapted and thrived well in the area [8]. Climate change is a major factor influencing the productivity of perennial cash crops in the region because tea and coffee are more sensitive to climate change [9,10,11] . ...
The tea plant is widely cultivated in southwest Ethiopia. But the impact of seasonal variation on monthly yield, leaf quality, and the long-term yield response potential of clones has not been studied. The objective of the study is to determine the impact of seasonal change and climate variables on the yield and leaf quality of tea plants in southwest Ethiopia. The experiment consisted of five clones and four seasons under a split-plot design and was replicated three times. The results indicated that the yield and leaf quality showed significant variation in the different seasons at P < 0.05. The highest peak yields of 12.68, 12.59, and 11.3 kg plot−1 were recorded in May, June, and April, respectively, and the yield suddenly dropped by 5.1% in July. Then the soft banjhi increased by 5–10% in July. The yield response potential of clones is highly affected by monthly climate variation at P < 0.05. Clone BB-35 recorded the highest (18.8 kg plot−1) yield in June, followed by clones 11/4 (18.3) in May, 11/56 (14.7) in November, 6/8 (11.7) in December, and 12/38 (5.78 kg plot−1) in June. The lowest mean green leaf and a longer shoot replacement cycle were created due to a decrease in rainfall to 760 mm/month and rising temperatures above 26.35 °C in winter. The leaf phenological response of tea clones is strongly governed by the monthly temperature and suitable precipitation pattern of a season. The highlands have two harvesting seasons, i.e., a dry and a wet harvesting season. The dry harvesting season, which exists between the middle of December and March, accounts for 18.3–24.3% of the total annual yield. The wet harvesting season is subdivided further into two peak harvesting seasons. The first harvest is characterized by a short plucking round, and the highest peak yield occurs in April, May, and June, accounting for 40.22–42.2% of the total annual yield. The second wet harvesting season begins in September and ends in the middle of December, contributing to 35.5–40% of the annual yield. Seasonal variation has a direct impact on leaf quality and clone yielding potential. Clones show higher yield and shorter plucking rounds at maximum temperatures above 23.03 °C and below 26.35 °C, but temperatures above 28.34 °C and below 10.38 °C have a negative effect on leaf quality and yield. Over the last two decades, rainfall, maximum, and mean temperatures all increased by 16.09 mm y-1, 0.127 °C, and 0.0566 °C y−1, respectively, and the tea plant showed a strong correlation with maximum temperature (76%), whereas mean temperature (44.6%) and annual rainfall (32.8%) correlated weakly. Green leaf production is well explained by around 85.4% of the observed climate variance, with an increase of 1287.18 tonnes y−1, and highland tea production will exhibit a positive net benefit from expected climate change in the future.
... Changes in the suitability of coffee species accompany the relocation of producing regions. Other regions will become less climatically suitable for growing Arabica coffee (in South and Central America, Africa, and Asia) but more suitable for growing robusta coffee [66]. At least 83% of the total future coffee-growing area meets the requirements for robusta cultivation, but only 17% (±6%) meets requirements for Arabica [63]. ...
Coffee production is fragile, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports indicate that climate change (CC) will reduce worldwide yields on average and decrease coffee-suitable land by 2050. This article adopted the systematic review approach to provide an update of the literature available on the impacts of climate change on coffee production and other ecosystem services following the framework proposed by the Millenium Ecosystem Assessment. The review identified 148 records from literature considering the effects of climate change and climate variability on coffee production, covering countries mostly from three continents (America, Africa, and Asia). The current literature evaluates and analyses various climate change impacts on single services using qualitative and quantitative methodologies. Impacts have been classified and described according to different impact groups. However, available research products lacked important analytical functions on the precise relationships between the potential risks of CC on coffee farming systems and associated ecosystem services. Consequently, the manuscript recommends further work on ecosystem services and their interrelation to assess the impacts of climate change on coffee following the ecosystem services framework.
... Intergroup crosses between "New-Yemen" or "Harrar" with "Typica/Bourbon" might be worth evaluating. Exploring new F1 hybrids in C. arabica with genetic clusters such as "Harrar" or "New-Yemen", both thriving in marginal dry and hot coffee areas (Hararghe and Yemen) is a promising opportunity in the context of climate change in coffee growing areas around the world [63] for which resilient and climate smart varieties are needed [64]. This highlights the importance of the exchange of genetic materials in the framework of collaborative research with equitable benefit sharing. ...
The coffee species Coffea arabica is facing numerous challenges regarding climate change, pests and disease pressure. Improved varieties will be part of the solution. Making optimal use of the scarce genetic diversity of the species is hence essential. In this paper, we present the first study of C. arabica genetic diversity covering its complete native habitat in Ethiopia together with its main domestication centers: Yemen and Hararghe region in Ethiopia. All in all, 555 samples were analyzed with a set of Single Sequence Repeat markers. Through admixture genetic analysis, six clusters were identified. A total of two “Core Ethiopian” clusters did not participate in the domestication of the species. There were four clusters that were part of the “Domestication Pathway” of C. arabica. The first one was named “Ethiopian Legacy” as it represents the genetic link between “Core Ethiopia” and the “Domestication Pathway” in Yemen and Hararghe. The geographic origin of this cluster in Ethiopia was the south of Ethiopia, namely Gedio, Guji and Sidama, which hence appears as the source of coffee seeds that led to the domestication of C. arabica. In Yemen, in addition to the “Ethiopian Legacy” cluster, we confirmed the “Typica/Bourbon” and “New-Yemen” clusters. In Hararghe, the “Harrar” cluster, never described before, likely originates from a re-introduction of domesticated coffee from Yemen into this region of Ethiopia. Cultivated varieties around the world today originate from the “Ethiopian Legacy” and “Typica/Bourbon” clusters and but none are related to the “new-Yemen” and “Harrar” clusters. Implications for breeding strategies are discussed.
... Se increased the content of catalase Introduction Coffee is one of the most important commodities worldwide with a significant economic impact on over 25 million mostly smallholder farmers in more than 60 countries throughout the tropics (Jayakumar et al., 2017). Coffee plants are highly sensitive to the growing environment and are generally restricted to the "Coffee Belt"-between 25 degrees North and 30 degrees South with an average temperature between 18 and 22 • C for Coffea arabica and 22 and 28 • C for Coffea canephora (DaMatta and Ramalho, 2006;Descroix and Snoeck, 2004;Bunn et al., 2015;Bliss, 2017). Among the 104 Coffea species described (Davis and Rakotonasolo, 2008), the two most economically important species are C. arabica (Arabica) and C. canephora (Robusta). ...
The effects of selenium (Se) on plant metabolism have been reported in several studies triggering plant tolerance to abiotic stresses, yet, the effects of Se on coffee plants under chilling stress are unclear. This study aimed to evaluate the effects of foliar Se application on coffee seedlings submitted to chilling stress and subsequent plant recovery. Two Coffea species, Coffea arabica cv. Arara, and Coffea canephora clone 31, were submitted to foliar application of sodium selenate solution (0.4 mg plant–1) or a control foliar solution, then on day 2 plants were submitted to low temperature (10°C day/4°C night) for 2 days. After that, the temperature was restored to optimal (25°C day/20°C night) for 2 days. Leaf samples were collected three times (before, during, and after the chilling stress) to perform analyses. After the chilling stress, visual leaf injury was observed in both species; however, the damage was twofold higher in C. canephora. The lower effect of cold on C. arabica was correlated to the increase in ascorbate peroxidase and higher content of starch, sucrose, and total soluble sugars compared with C. canephora, as well as a reduction in reducing sugars and proline content during the stress and rewarming. Se increased the nitrogen and sulfur content before stress but reduced their content during low temperature. The reduced content of nitrogen and sulfur during stress indicates that they were remobilized to stem and roots. Se supply reduced the damage in C. canephora leaves by 24% compared with the control. However, there was no evidence of the Se effects on antioxidant enzymatic pathways or ROS activity during stress as previously reported in the literature. Se increased the content of catalase during the rewarming. Se foliar supply also increased starch, amino acids, and proline, which may have reduced symptom expression in C. canephora in response to low temperature. In conclusion, Se foliar application can be used as a strategy to improve coffee tolerance under low-temperature changing nutrient remobilization, carbohydrate metabolism, and catalase activity in response to rewarming stress, but C. arabica and C. canephora respond differently to chilling stress and Se supply.
... Increasing knowledge of coffee cultivated in Yemen is of great significance for the coffee community around the world, including the 12.5 million households that rely on coffee growing for their incomes [15]. Due to climate change, the world is projected to lose 50% of suitable coffee-growing land by 2050 [16]. The climate in the coffee-growing regions of Yemen is one of the driest in the world, with an annual rainfall below 400 mm per year, while the minimum annual rainfall from more than 62,000 points representing arabica coffee-growing area around the world was almost double that, at 754 mm per year [17]. ...
... A central and statistically rigorous description and phenotypical evaluation of the different coffee genetic types in Yemen will pave the way for a sound genetic improvement program in the country and prevent genetic erosion. Furthermore, the resultant knowledge may benefit the wider coffee community facing challenges related to climate change [16]. ...
While Ethiopia and South Sudan are the native habitats for Coffea arabica, Yemen is considered an important domestication center for this coffee species as most Arabica coffee grown around the world can be traced back to Yemen. Furthermore, climatic conditions in Yemen are hot and extremely dry. As such, Yemeni coffee trees likely have genetic merits with respect to climate resilience. However, until recently, very little was known about the genetic landscape of Yemeni coffee. The Yemeni coffee sector identifies coffee trees according to numerous vernacular names such as Udaini, Tufahi or Dawairi. However, the geographical landscape of these names and their correlation with the genetic background of the coffee trees have never been explored. In this study, we investigated the geographic occurrence of vernacular names in 148 coffee farms across the main coffee areas of Yemen. Then, we used microsatellite markers to genotype 88 coffee trees whose vernacular name was ascertained by farmers. We find a clear geographical pattern for the use of vernacular coffee names. However, the vernacular names showed no significant association with genetics. Our results support the need for a robust description of different coffee types in Yemen based on their genetic background for the benefit of Yemeni farmers.
... These activities and their consequences in terms of global warming result in increasing the vulnerability of agricultural and food systems [2]. In the particular case of Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica), the forecasted consequences of climate change (CC), and more specifically changes in rainfall patterns, elevated temperatures, more frequent drought periods, and a shift in geographical coffee-growing regions can boost environmental and socioeconomic threats in the near future [3]. C. arabica currently only grows in world regions where the differences in photoperiods do not exceed 2 h, suggesting that this species might not be adapted to large changes in seasonal photoperiods. ...
Climate change (CC) is already impacting Arabica coffee cultivation in the intertropical zone. To deal with this situation, it is no longer possible to manage this crop using industrial agriculture techniques, which has been the main strategy implemented since the Green Revolution. Developing a more sustainable agriculture system that respects people and the environment is essential to guarantee future generations’ access to natural resources. In the case of Arabica coffee, the solution has been found. Agroforestry is proposed as an ecosystem-based strategy to mitigate and adapt to CC. At least 60% of Arabica coffee is produced in agroforestry systems (AFSs), which are the most sustainable way to produce coffee. Nevertheless, AFS coffee cultivation is currently uncompetitive partly because all modern varieties, selected for full-sun intensive cropping systems, have low yields in shaded environments. Here we review the reasons why agroforestry is part of the solution to CC, and why no breeding work has been undertaken for this cropping system. Based on the literature data, for breeding purposes we also define for the first time one possible coffee ideotype required for AFS coffee cultivation. The four main traits are: (1) productivity based on F1 hybrid vigor, tree volume and flowering intensity under shade; (2) beverage quality by using wild Ethiopian accessions as female progenitors and selecting for this criterion using specific biochemical and molecular predictors; (3) plant health to ensure good tolerance to stress, especially biotic; and (4) low fertilization to promote sustainable production. For each of these traits, numerous criteria with threshold values to be achieved per trait were identified. Through this research, an ecosystem-based breeding strategy was defined to help create new F1 hybrid varieties within the next 10 years.
... This is relevant as coffee is highly susceptible to changes in climatic conditions. Increases in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns will affect coffee yields and quality and be particularly severe in regions less suitable for coffee production (Bunn et al., 2015a). ...
Coffee production is an important source of export revenue for producing countries, especially for small, agriculture-dependent economies like Rwanda. Coffee production is a key driver in the development and improvement of rural livelihoods, serving as a source of cash income for the many coffee-producing households. The coffee value chain in Rwanda changed visibly since the early 2000s. Since then, the number of Coffee Washing Stations increased considerably, as did the share of fully washed coffee production. Rwanda’s coffee sector is a now well-established player in the international speciality coffee market. Despite considerable improvements, productivity remains low, as farmers struggle with pests and diseases, poor soil fertility and insufficient access to fertilisers. These challenges faced by coffee producers call for suitable and sustainable solutions. With coffee farmers also facing the repercussions of progressing climate change, the present dissertation aims to identify ways to support smallholder coffee producers in their efforts to respond to the challenges they face. Therefore, the thesis taps into two important fields of research on coffee producers – climate change adaptation and sustainability certification. First, the thesis evaluates the role of certification in improving farmers’ economic and environmental performance. Secondly, it addresses the question of how farmers respond to climate change, and how they can be supported in their efforts. The dissertation consists of two case studies from Rwanda and one chapter reviewing the literature on climate change adaptation. The data for the empirical research was collected from September to December 2019 in three climatic regions in Rwanda.
... This is relevant as coffee is highly susceptible to changes in climatic conditions. Increases in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns will affect coffee yields and quality and be particularly severe in regions less suitable for coffee production (Bunn, Läderach, Jimenez, Montagnon, & Schilling, 2015). ...
Sustainability certification has become an important tool for promoting sustainable agricultural value chains. Nevertheless, its economic and environmental effects on the producer level remain unclear. We investigate the relationship of Rainforest Alliance Certification with socio‐economic and environmental outcomes in Rwanda and consider potential tradeoffs between dimensions. To reduce potential selection bias in the econometric estimation, we use inverse probability weighted regression adjustment. We find no significant association between certification and socio‐economic indicators but a significant correlation between certification and good agricultural practices and biodiversity‐related practices. Effects on economic outcomes and biodiversity‐related practices are linked; their relationship differs across climatic regions.
... Aggregated data on different administrative levels are publicly available from several countries; yet again, most countries have a limited time record and/or report yields only for large spatial areas. Thus, the few studies that assessed weather impact on coffee yield have used yield datasets over some specific locations (e.g., few Brazilian municipalities or farm-level data) with limited time series (the maximum of 10 years) (de Oliveira Aparecido et al., 2017;Valeriano et al., 2018;Kath et al., 2020); while previous global studies made use of indirect coffee information such as the occurrence of coffee-production without yield data (Bunn et al., 2015a, Bunn et al., 2015b. This study focuses on robusta coffee of the Central Highlands of Vietnam, the biggest robusta coffee producing country, using 19 years of data. ...
... Many studies have also used gridded weather data as major inputs for regional yield forecasting (Zhang and Huang, 2012;Valeriano et al., 2018). Bioclimatic variables based on climatology from WorldClim (Hijmans et al., 2005) have widely been used with species distribution models (O'Donnell and Ignizio, 2012;Bunn et al., 2015a;Bunn et al., 2015b;Läderach et al., 2017;Gomes et al., 2020;Davis et al., 2021). ...
... Here, we only studied the current climate situation (i.e., in the last 20 years). As shown in other studies, (Davis et al., 2012;Bunn et al., 2015a;Bunn et al., 2015b), it is also of interest to look at the future climate, for instance, the 2040-2069 timeslide. Along with the development of the model, in future studies, our model can be applied to the common climate simulations (from several greenhouse gas emission scenarios, i.e., CMIP6), thus we can analyze the impact of climate change on coffee yield (assuming that management practices stay the same). ...
Weather and climate strongly impact coffee; however, few studies have measured this impact on robusta coffee yield. This is because the yield record is not long enough, and/or the data are only available at a local farm level. A data-driven approach is developed here to 1) identify how sensitive Vietnamese robusta coffee is to weather on district and provincial levels, 2) during which key moments weather is most influential for yield, and 3) how long before harvest, yield could potentially be forecasted. Robusta coffee yield time series were available from 2000 to 2018 for the Central Highlands, where 40% of global robusta coffee is produced. Multiple linear regression has been used to assess the effect of weather on coffee yield, with regularization techniques such as PCA and leave-one-out to avoid over-fitting the regression models. The data suggest that robusta coffee in Vietnam is most sensitive to two key moments: a prolonged rainy season of the previous year favoring vegetative growth, thereby increasing the potential yield (i.e., number of fruiting nodes), while low rainfall during bean formation decreases yield. Depending on location, these moments could be used to forecast the yield anomaly with 3–6 months’ anticipation. The sensitivity of yield anomalies to weather varied substantially between provinces and even districts. In Dak Lak and some Lam Dong districts, weather explained up to 36% of the robusta coffee yield anomalies variation, while low sensitivities were identified in Dak Nong and Gia Lai districts. Our statistical model can be used as a seasonal forecasting tool for the management of coffee production. It can also be applied to climate change studies, i.e., using this statistical model in climate simulations to see the tendency of coffee in the following decades.
... Craparo et al. (2015) reported that coffee yield in Tanzanian highlands was reduced by increased average night temperatures. Nearly 80% of the land in hot, dry regions, such as northern Minas Gerais State in Brazil, parts of India, and Nicaragua, are the areas that currently give some of the highest yields of Arabica coffee, but they are in danger of becoming unsuitable for coffee production by 2050 (Bunn et al., 2015). Thus, studies aiming at breeding coffee strains with heat stress tolerance properties are needed. ...
Coffea arabica, an economically important crop, accounts for most of the coffee consumed globally. Increasing temperature due to climate change can cause a decrease in productivity in many crops, including coffee plants. The maximum temperature at which damage is induced has been reported for many crops, but it remains unclear in coffee plants. Here, we investigated the effect of different temperatures and the physiological damage induced by heat stress using both leaf disks and intact plants of Coffea arabica ‘Typica’. In the experiment using intact plants, we observed leaf damage by a decrease in soil plant analysis development value, and an increase in electrolyte leakage after exposure to 45°C for 96 h, whereas no leaf damage was observed for 72 h. The leaf surface temperatures after exposure to 45°C for 72 and 96 h were 44.0 and 46.3°C, respectively. Thus, a tolerance threshold in leaves of C. arabica ‘Typica’ under heat stress are likely between 44.0 and 46.3°C. The activities of catalase (CAT) and superoxide dismutase (SOD) decreased at 45°C in both leaf disks and intact plants. The decrease in the activities of SOD and CAT under heat stress may be responsible for the increased levels of reactive oxygen species, such as O2⁻ and H2O2, and the resulting cellular damage. Our findings provide valuable insights into the physiological responses of Coffea arabica ‘Typica’ to heat stress, which may contribute to the breeding and screening of tolerant cultivars in the future.
