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Distribution of fatalities, injuries and homelessness by region. Pie chart size represents the relative magnitude of the 3 combined impacts (regions with null or very low values are shown as triangles). 

Distribution of fatalities, injuries and homelessness by region. Pie chart size represents the relative magnitude of the 3 combined impacts (regions with null or very low values are shown as triangles). 

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A new database on human mortality and morbidity, and civil evacuations arising from volcanic activity is presented. The aim is to quantify the human impacts of volcanic phenomena during the 20th Century. Data include numbers of deaths, injuries, evacuees and people made homeless, and the nature of the associated volcanic phenomena. The database has...

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... Caribbean and South America are the two regions where the most people were killed in the 20th Century, with 30,584 and 23,912 deaths, respec- tively (Table 11). These results are almost entirely accounted for by just two eruptions, the 1902 eruption of Mt Pelée in the Caribbean (29,000 dead) and the 1985 eruption of Nevado del Ruiz in South America (23,080 dead), which rank as the two most fatal eruptions in the century (see above). South-east Asia (here containing only Indonesia and the Philippines) ranks highest in all other categories and accounts for the greatest number of events. Fig. 4 shows that in most of the regions not experiencing large fatal erup- tions, more people were made homeless than killed or ...

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... In the succeeding years, the flows repeatedly descended by the stream valleys of the southern slope, and their length varied between 8 and 28 km [44]. Pyroclastic flows are known, however, to be as long as 100 km [1,34]. ...
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The river valleys located in volcanic regions are prone to various catastrophic processes, including those catalyzed by eruptions. First, to be mentioned among them are volcanic mudflows known as lahars. They commonly result from melting of ice, snow on the mountaintop, and rainfalls immediately following the eruption. This sequence of catastrophic events—“eruption-volcanic mudflow”—is quite common and has been well studied. When viewed closely the mud and debris flow in the volcanic regions appears to be brought on by various causes, with many factors and agents involved. Quite commonly, an eruption triggers not a single endo- or exogenic event, but a sequence of interrelated catastrophes following one after another. The studied cases allow identifying and describing up to two tens of probable scenarios—successions of catastrophic events in river valleys of the volcanic regions. The specific chain in any particular case depends on volcanic activities and accompanying events, such as seismic shocks, changes in local topography, hydrothermal activity, and erosion. The river valleys and adjoining areas are the most hazardous and vulnerable areas within as much as a few kilometers from the eruption center as the erupted material tends to accumulate in valleys and rapidly transported downstream.
... Lava flows are one of the most frequent volcanic hazards in the world, yet they are considered to rarely pose a risk to people [Witham 2005;Harris 2015]. Indeed, at most sites, lava flows are slow enough to allow populations to be evacuated [e.g. ...
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Since 1979, Piton de la Fournaise (La Réunion) has erupted on average two times per year, with 95 % of these eruptions occurring within an uninhabited caldera. However, lava flows have occasionally impacted populated regions on the island, as in 1977 and 1986. Since 2014, an integrated satellite data–driven multinational response to effusive crises has been developed to rapidly assess lava inundation area and flow runout distance. In 2018, this protocol was implemented as a standalone software to provide a lava flow hazard map showing the probability of flow coverage and runouts as a function of discharge rate. Since 2019, the produced short-term hazard map is shared with local civil protection in the first few hours following the start of an eruption to aid in mitigation actions. Multiple exchanges between scientists, the observatory, and civil protection has improved the delivered hazard map, ensuring a common understanding, a product which is of use and usable, and helping to build effective mitigation strategies at Piton de la Fournaise. In this work we illustrate this effective near real-time protocol with case studies and document how the produced short-term hazard map has been tailored to meet the needs of civil protection.
... The level of uncertainty cannot be explicitly quantified using expert interpretation alone, and issues of subjectivity, cognitive bias, and stress-related errors may overpower the advantages of method flexibility and adaptability. Additionally, while it is arguably the only eruption forecasting method with any success rate worldwide (e.g., Auker et al., 2013), it is also arguably the only eruption forecasting method with any failure rate (e.g., Witham, 2005), as it is effectively the only method widely deployed. Expert elicitation is the practical reality at most volcano observatories where forecasts may be used to inform emergency management decisions (i.e., at population proximal volcanoes - Pallister et al., 2019), with some expansions of this expert judgement through structured event trees, such as by the USGS Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP - Lowenstern and Ramsey, 2017), which aims to openly document the judgements made. ...
Article
Understanding future volcanic eruptions and their potential impact is a critical component of disaster risk reduction, and necessitates the production of salient, robust hazard information for decision-makers and end-users. Volcanic eruptions are inherently multi-phase, multi-hazard events, and the uncertainty and complexity surrounding potential future hazard behaviour is exceedingly hard to communicate to decision-makers. Volcanic eruption scenarios are recognised to be an effective knowledge-sharing mechanism between scientists and practitioners, and recent hybrid scenario suites partially address the limitations surrounding the traditional deterministic scenario approach. Despite advances in scenario suite development, there is still a gap in the international knowledge base concerning the synthesis of multi-phase, multi-hazard volcano science and end-user needs. In this study we present a new modular framework for the development of complex, long-duration, multi-phase, multi-hazard volcanic eruption scenario suites. The framework was developed in collaboration with volcanic risk management agencies and researchers in Aotearoa-New Zealand, and is applied to Taranaki Mounga volcano, an area of high volcanic risk. This collaborative process aimed to meet end-user requirements, as well as the need for scientific rigour. This new scenario framework development process could be applied at other volcanic settings to produce robust, credible and relevant scenario suites that are demonstrative of the complex, varying-duration and multi-hazard nature of volcanic eruptions. In addressing this gap, the value of volcanic scenario development is enhanced by advancing multi-hazard assessment capabilities and cross-sector collaboration between scientists and practitioners for disaster risk reduction planning.
... Large volcanic eruptions of a few active volcanoes such as Pinatubo, Taal, and Mayon caused an impact on human mortality, morbidity, displacement, and livelihood, among others. For instance, the eruption of Pinatubo in 1991 and its subsequent impact on the region due to lahar was responsible for at least 26% of the region's population becoming homeless and 33% who were affected have evacuated (Witham 2005). ...
... Advance-notice events received much attention in the literature while no-notice events have not received nearly as much attention, because of a lack of data. During the Taal Volcano's unrest in 1994, the difficulty to predict people's movement and behavior during a volcanic crisis was highlighted (Witham 2005). There is a considerable gap in the literature addressing the behavioral analysis of individuals' evacuation decision-making for no-notice emergency events (Golshani et al. 2020). ...
Article
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Emergency evacuation is the immediate escape of people away from a place of an imminent threat to a place of safety. The ability of the households to evacuate is a crucial component in reducing disaster risks. Logistical issues such as a lack of resources during and after the evacuation, as well as road congestion, might arise, especially in short and no-notice calamities such as a volcanic eruption. This study examines the relationship of variables of evacuation logistics of Barangay Banga, Talisay, Batangas, in the context of the 2020 Taal Volcanic eruption. A survey was conducted based on the evacuation experience of the households at the onset of the eruption. First, a descriptive statistical analysis was performed for all the variables on household evacuation logistics to understand the evacuation behavior of households. These variables include the type of evacuation, departure timing, evacuation mode, and destination type choice. Additionally, a pairwise correlaton analysis was employed to identify the influential factors related to household evacuation logistics such as socio-demographic and household characteristics, their experience with Taal Volcano’s recurring activities and relationship with other evacuation-related decisions. The results of this study aim to provide insights into a better understanding of the evacuation behavior of households in the context of a volcanic eruption and be useful in the evacuation logistics planning of the country.
... This focus has been strongly merited considering it is estimated that between 8% and 14.5% of the world's population is currently exposed to a volcanic hazard, such as lava flows, gases, lahars 1 , and pyroclastic fall deposits and co-ignimbrite ash-fall (clouds) 2 (Freire et al., 2019). Globally, volcanic events are estimated to have killed approximately 98,000 people, affecting the livelihoods of about 5.6 million people over the course of the twentieth century (Witham, 2005). ...
Article
Volcanic ecosystem services (ES) is a subject that has been overlooked by the vast ecosystem services literature, where the spotlight has been focused on the many ecosystem disservices (ED) of volcanic hazards. This study conducts a literature review using the Search, Appraisal, Synthesis and Analysis (SALSA) framework, identifying the main ES common to volcanic environments. The Common International Classification for Ecosystem Services typology is utilised to provide a classification of volcanic ES. A diverse array of 18 ES are identified, categorised as follows: provisioning (8), regulation and maintenance (2), and cultural (8). Resilience is a key property underpinning the ecological processes, functions and productivity of Andosols, which are often some of the most fertile soils on the planet. However, careful management of Andosols, volcano-themed national parks and geothermal energy resources remains necessary to ensure that the flow of related ES is sustainable. Through sustainable soil and geothermal energy resource management, volcanic ES can make a long-term contribution to the tackling of climate change, including the partial offsetting of greenhouse gas emissions released via volcanic degassing during eruptions. Sustainable tourism management can ensure the protection, conservation and economic development of volcanic sites of high geo-heritage value, including national parks and geoparks, where the distinct aesthetics of such environments underpin the recreational and tourist experience.
... Entre los peligros volcánicos, la caída de tefra -término genérico que hace referencia a cualquier fragmento volcánico emitido durante una erupción explosiva, sin distinción de su tamaño, forma y composición (Thorarinsson 1944)-es el más frecuente (Newhall y Hoblitt 2002). En particular, la fracción de la tefra con diámetro < 2 mm, denominada ceniza volcáni-ca, tiene una gran capacidad de dispersión y permanencia en la atmósfera, pudiendo afectar áreas localizadas incluso a miles de kilómetros de distancia del centro de emisión (Witham 2005). Si bien los impactos causados por la caída de ceniza en la superficie terrestre dependen de la cantidad de material depositado, otros factores como la duración y tipo de erupción, las características físico-químicas de las partículas (i.e. ...
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(English version below)>> El volcán Peteroa se emplaza en el sur de la provincia de Mendoza, en el límite argentino-chileno, y es uno de los sistemas volcánicos más activos de los Andes del Sur. A pesar de su recurrente actividad eruptiva, existe escasa documentación sobre las consecuencias de estos eventos en las personas y el medioambiente. Un nuevo ciclo eruptivo, que inició en octubre de 2018 y duró aproximadamente 6 meses, ofreció una renovada oportunidad para indagar sobre este tópico postergado. A partir de una estrategia metodológica mixta, que combina herramientas de las ciencias sociales (i.e. entrevistas y cuestionarios) y naturales (i.e. análisis de lixiviados y aguas, datos meteorológicos, observaciones de campo e imágenes satelitales), caracterizamos el ciclo eruptivo y evaluamos el impacto de la caída de ceniza en el ambiente, en las comunidades que habitan en las cercanías del volcán y en sus actividades. Complementariamente, analizamos la gestión de la crisis volcánica desde el propio testimonio de los afectados. Los resultados demuestran que, a pesar del poco espesor de ceniza depositada, los impactos asociados no fueron nulos. A su vez, existieron falencias durante la gestión de la crisis, especialmente vinculadas a la comunicación, el manejo de la información y la asistencia. A raíz de esto, realizamos un análisis cualitativo con el objetivo de proyectar y discutir potenciales escenarios y una serie de recomendaciones que, esperamos, contribuyan a guiar futuros estudios y planes de gestión del riesgo volcánico. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Peteroa volcano is located in the south of Mendoza province, on the Argentine-Chilean border, and is one of the most active volcanic systems in the Southern Andes. Despite its recurrent eruptive activity, there is little documentation on the consequences of these events on the people and the environment. A new eruptive cycle, which began in October 2018 and lasted approximately 6 months, offered a renewed opportunity to investigate this postponed topic. By developing a mixed methodological strategy, which combines tools from social sciences (i.e. in-person interviews and questionnaires) and natural sciences (i.e. leachate and water analysis, meteorological data, field observations and satellite images), we characterize the eruptive cycle and evaluate the impact of ash fallout on the environment, the communities that live in the vicinity of the volcano as well as in their activities. In addition, we analyse the management of the volcanic crisis by recovering the testimony of those affected. Our findings show that, despite the low thickness of ash deposits, the associated impacts were not negligible and there were shortcomings during the crisis management, especially related to communication, information management and assistance. Consequently, we carry out a qualitative analysis to project and discuss potential scenarios and provide a series of recommendations that, hopefully, will help guide future studies and volcanic risk management strategies.
... Figure 9 displays the change in R s during the last 5 decades, while Fig. 10 shows the variation in observed clouds over Japan. The sharp decrease in R s in 1963 caused by the volcanic eruption of Mount Agung in Indonesia (Witham, 2005) can be clearly found. The sharp decreases in R s in 1991 and 1993 are due to the combined effect of the volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991 (Robock, 2000) and the simultaneous significant increases in clouds (Fig. 8 in Tsutsumi and Murakami, 2012). ...
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Surface incident solar radiation (Rs) plays a key role in climate change on Earth. Rs can be directly measured, and it shows substantial variability on decadal scales, i.e. global dimming and brightening. Rs can also be derived from the observed sunshine duration (SunDu) with reliable accuracy. The SunDu-derived Rs has been used as a reference to detect and adjust inhomogeneity in the observed Rs. However, both the observed Rs and SunDu-derived Rs may have inhomogeneity. In Japan, SunDu has been measured since 1890, and Rs has been measured since 1961 at ∼100 stations. In this study, the observed Rs and SunDu-derived Rs were first checked for inhomogeneity independently using the statistical software RHtests. If confirmed by the metadata of these observations, the detected inhomogeneity was adjusted based on the RHtests quantile-matching method. Second, the two homogenized time series were compared to detect further possible inhomogeneity. If confirmed by the independent ground-based manual observations of cloud cover fraction, the detected inhomogeneity was adjusted based on the reference dataset. As a result, a sharp decrease of more than 20 W m−2 in the observed Rs from 1961 to 1975 caused by instrument displacement was detected and adjusted. Similarly, a decline of about 20 W m−2 in SunDu-derived Rs due to steady instrument replacement from 1985 to 1990 was detected and adjusted too. After homogenization, the two estimates of Rs agree well. The homogenized SunDu-derived Rs show an increased at a rate of 0.9 W m−2 per decade (p<0.01) from 1961 to 2014, which was caused by a positive aerosol-related radiative effect (2.2 W m−2 per decade) and a negative cloud cover radiative effect (−1.4 W m−2 per decade). The brightening over Japan was the strongest in spring, likely due to a significant decline in aerosol transported from Asian dust storms. The observed raw Rs data and their homogenized time series used in this study are available at https://doi.org/10.11888/Meteoro.tpdc.271524 (Ma et al., 2021).
... A volcanic eruption is one of the most destructive and deadly natural phenomena (Bird et al. 2010;MIA-VITA 2012). During the twentieth century, Witham (2005) estimated that 91,724 people were killed, and 291,457 people lost their homes due to eruption. The effects of eruptions on small volcanic islands are no less severe, for example, the Mount Pelee eruption in Martinique that killed 29,000 people (Gaudru 2005;Witham 2005) marks the highest death toll due to volcanic eruptions in the twentieth century. ...
... During the twentieth century, Witham (2005) estimated that 91,724 people were killed, and 291,457 people lost their homes due to eruption. The effects of eruptions on small volcanic islands are no less severe, for example, the Mount Pelee eruption in Martinique that killed 29,000 people (Gaudru 2005;Witham 2005) marks the highest death toll due to volcanic eruptions in the twentieth century. Therefore, volcanic risk management, especially on small islands, is of critical importance. ...
... Several studies have documented eruptions on small islands and the corresponding responses of the community (Smith 2011;Pyle et al. 2018;Cole et al. 2019), each of which is different from what generally happens in non-island regions. According to Witham (2005), records of the impact of volcanism on humans offer essential lessons for volcanic risk management. ...
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Gamalama is an active stratovolcano on Ternate, a small volcanic island in Maluku Utara, Indonesia. Since 1510, a total of 77 eruptions have been recorded, with various impacts on the population and environment on the island and its surroundings. In July 2015, Gamalama erupted after < 24 h of precursor signs. The seismic activity continued to increase until September 2015, as marked by three sudden eruptions that were not preceded by significant volcanic and tremor earthquakes. This research was intended to understand the chronology and impact of the 2015 Gamalama eruption, which is categorically unusual, and to learn how the government conducted relevant crisis management and in what manners the community affected by ejected materials reacted to it. The former was achieved by analyzing the data provided by the Gamalama volcano observatory. As for the latter, interviews with key stakeholders in volcanic disaster management and a questionnaire-based survey involving 85 respondents in the most affected areas were conducted. The results showed that despite the relatively small Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI = 2), the 2015 eruption was rather unexpected to many parties because it began with a short-term precursor sign (less than a day). The impact included tephra deposits as thick as 2–6 mm was in the Loto, Togafo, and Takome Villages. A total of 1791 people was recorded evacuating to several locations, such as Afe Taduma village, the SMKN 2 camp, the SKB camp, and the Naval Base camp. After a rapid impact assessment and coordination with the Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation (CVGHM), the government issued a status of emergency and evacuation orders. In cases when eruptions are initiated with a short-term precursor, the large population size and geographic condition of Ternate Island create a particular challenge in the resultant evacuation. Nevertheless, with prior mitigation measures and evacuation drills in hazard zones, evacuation can be carried out effectively. Even when a large-scale Gamalama eruption requires an evacuation to neighboring islands, a properly implemented mitigation such as the establishment of sister islands can substantially facilitate volcanic crisis management activities on small islands.
... Both lateral collapses and their deposits have killed ∼3,500 people since 1600 AD, in at least nine catastrophic events, and their direct impacts have been documented between 1 and 20 km from the volcanic source (Auker et al., 2013;Brown et al., 2017;Siebert and Roverato, 2021). During just the twentieth century, it is estimated that 741 people were killed and 267 injured directly by collapse processes, while 4,600 became homeless and about 29,000 were evacuated (Witham, 2005) as a consequence of this phenomenon. Moreover, tsunamis directly generated by lateral collapses have killed many thousands more people (Day et al., 2015): some prominent examples include the 1741 collapse of Oshima-Oshima volcanic island (Japan; volume of 2.5 km 3 and ∼1,500 fatalities; Satake, 2007); the 1792 collapse of Unzen-Mayuyama (Japan; volume of 0.3 km 3 and 15,135 deaths; Sassa et al., 2016); and the 1888 tsunami caused by the collapse of Ritter Island (Papua New Guinea, with a volume from 2.4 to 4.2 km 3 and likely causing several thousand deaths on the coastlines of surrounding islands; Watt et al., 2019). ...
Article
Accepted paper An extreme precipitation event produced catastrophic debris flows in central Chile during 29-31 January 2021 (austral summer). Our study focuses on the triggering factors and dynamic behavior of hail-debris flows affecting the small commune of Malloa (Central Valley), which caused 200 injured and 73 damaged houses. We carried out a post-event detailed field mapping of the local geology, the erosional features on the ravines, and its related hail-debris flow deposits. In parallel, the study involved a socio-cultural analysis of vulnerability to debris flows, with a particular focus on the disaster experience of the local community. Our results indicate that these hail-debris flows were likely conditioned by extended drought, local geomorphology, bedrock weathering/alteration, and water-oversaturated soil by two antecedent precipitation pulses. Soil erosion triggered by a hailstorm during a third precipitation pulse initiated hail-debris flows from small basins (<1.2 km2). Basin concentration times were estimated in 6-8 minutes, while hail reduced flow resistance by interparticle lubrication, promoting peak flow velocities near 2.4 to 5.5 m/s. Debris flow risk management should focus on developing suitable infrastructure and installing capacities at the local level as an essential condition for implementing subsequent inter-sectoral actions (for prevention, mitigation, and design risk scenarios).
... Marulanda et al. [31] Revealing the socioeconomic impact of small disasters in Colombia using the DesInventar database 2010 This paper presents the results of the evaluation of the DesInventar database, created in 1994 by the disaster prevention social studies network in Latin American. Besides, a new version of the local disaster list was developed in 2005 as part of the US disaster risk index and management program, with support from the Inter-American development bank United Nations Development Programme [32] Risk knowledge fundamentals: Guidelines and lessons for establishing and institutionalizing disaster loss database 2009 This study documents the experiences of the UNDP regional program on capacity building for sustainable recovery and risk reduction in the implementation of disaster loss databases using the DesInventar method Witham [33] Volcanic disasters and incidents: A new database 2005 A new database on volcanic eruption, mortality, and urban evacuation has been proposed. This study aims to quantify the social effects of volcanic phenomena during the 20th century. ...
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Nowadays, disaster databases have become a valuable tool for disaster risk management and health promotion and serve various purposes. The purpose of this study is to provide a systematic review of disaster databases in the world and to identify the objectives, information sources, criteria, and variables of disaster data registration in the world's reputable databases. To conduct review, all English-language articles published without a time limit until the end of September 2020 were extracted from the databases of Web of Science, PubMed, Scopus, Cochrane Library, Science Direct, Google Scholar, and Embase. Necessary information in the papers including study time, type of disasters, related databases, dimensions and indicators of global and regional databases were extracted by using a researcher-made questionnaire. A total of 22 studies have been reviewed to identify the dimensions and indicators of disaster databases worldwide. The main focus was on global and regional databases, mostly used at the level of scientific societies and disaster experts. After explanation, researchers highlighted each of the disaster databases, along with the main differences available among the existing databases. Some databases have well-defined data collection methods. Their knowledge is high quality and they can be used to create and improve a disaster database at other levels. Disaster database limitations include risk bias, time bias, accounting bias, threshold bias, and geographical bias. To support the right decisions to reduce disaster risk, it is necessary to complement existing global, regional, and national databases. Countries need to take action to set up national databases.