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Distribution map of Quercus robur (adopted from Eaton et al., 2016) (inset) and predicted present distribution with occurrence points of Q. robur. The two maps were largely concordant with each other. 

Distribution map of Quercus robur (adopted from Eaton et al., 2016) (inset) and predicted present distribution with occurrence points of Q. robur. The two maps were largely concordant with each other. 

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During the Pleistocene glacial periods, the ranges of many temperate species in Europe contracted southwards to ref-ugia near the Mediterranean Basin. This study tested the 'expansion-contraction' model by applying the ecological niche modelling approach to one widespread temperate tree species, pedunculate oak, Quercus robur L., distributed across...

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Context 1
... robur is a long-lived deciduous tree species covering a wide altitudinal range from sea level up to 1200 m in Europe, Russia, the Caucasus and the Near East (Fig. 1). The species shows geographical variation, with four subspecies defined mainly based on morpho- logical features (The Plant List, 2013). Seed disper- sal mainly occurs by bird predation, especially by the European jay Garrulus glandarius (Bossema, ...
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... present bioclimatic conditions, the model prediction was highly compatible with the known distribution range of Q. robur (Fig. 1), suggesting that Q. robur is almost at equilibrium with the climate ('almost at equilibrium' because there was no prediction in the eastern part of its distribution range). Under past bioclimatic conditions (the LIG, the LGM and the HOL), Q. robur showed instability during the transitions between these periods (specifically, LIG-LGM and LGM-HOL). The LIG and the HOL predictions gave much broader distribution ranges than the LGM predictions, suggesting a contraction towards climatically favourable areas in southern Europe (including France) ( Fig. 2; see Supporting Information S3 for individual models of the HOL and LGM). Ferris et al., 1998;Bensch & Hasselquist, 1999;Hampe et al., 2003). Our results show that Q. robur also responded to climate changes through Late Pleistocene glacial-interglacial cycles, with its distribution range shrinking towards favour- able areas in southern Europe during the LGM. This pattern has also been found for many other European temperate deciduous tree species (e.g. Hampe et al., 2003;Krebs et al., 2004). Our findings are also consistent with those of Ferris et al. (1998) andPetit et al. (2002), who showed late-and post-glacial expansion of oaks from separate refugia in southern Europe. However, although our ecological niche modelling results support the glacial refugia hypothesis, they also reveal possible extra-Mediterranean refugia for deciduous oak species in northern, western and southern France. These extra- Mediterranean refugia located in France for Q. robur are characterized more by temperature than by precipi- tation according to our model predictions. In contrast to the results of Petit et al. (2002), this suggests that precipitation is not an essential element acting as a sig- nificant bioclimatic factor for Q. robur. Our ecological niche modelling prediction for the present distribution of Q. robur was largely concord- ant with its known distribution. This demonstrates the species-climate equilibrium of the ecological niche of Q. robur based on bioclimatic data (NoguésBravo, 2009), which could indicate confidence in the model. Because we used the M ∩ S area for calibra- tion, the model output did not include the eastern part of the distribution range of Q. robur. This might have affected the result slightly, as we lacked several occur- rence points in the region, and it is uncertain whether the known range of Q. robur reaches to the far eastern part of Europe and to Russia. The variables that most strongly affected the predictions were temperature seasonality and annual mean temperature, which sug- gests that temperature is the most important climatic determinant of the distribution of Q. robur, as for many plant species of the temperate region (Huntley, Bartlein & Prentice, 1989;Fang & Lechowicz, 2006;Hamann & Wang, 2006). Our results regarding predic- tive variables contradict those of Svenning, Normand & Kageyama (2008), who argued that absolute minimum temperature together with water balance and growing degree-days were the most critical predictors of the distribution of Europe temperate trees. Our results may be more realistic, at least for Q. robur, because we tried to eliminate highly correlated variables and ob- tain simpler model predictions using a relatively small climatic data set. We found that temperature-related variables were the most critical variables in projecting the distribution of Q. ...
Context 3
... robur is a long-lived deciduous tree species covering a wide altitudinal range from sea level up to 1200 m in Europe, Russia, the Caucasus and the Near East (Fig. 1). The species shows geographical variation, with four subspecies defined mainly based on morpho- logical features (The Plant List, 2013). Seed disper- sal mainly occurs by bird predation, especially by the European jay Garrulus glandarius (Bossema, ...
Context 4
... present bioclimatic conditions, the model prediction was highly compatible with the known distribution range of Q. robur (Fig. 1), suggesting that Q. robur is almost at equilibrium with the climate ('almost at equilibrium' because there was no prediction in the eastern part of its distribution range). Under past bioclimatic conditions (the LIG, the LGM and the HOL), Q. robur showed instability during the transitions between these periods (specifically, LIG-LGM ...
Context 5
... robur is a long-lived deciduous tree species covering a wide altitudinal range from sea level up to 1200 m in Europe, Russia, the Caucasus and the Near East (Fig. 1). The species shows geographical variation, with four subspecies defined mainly based on morpho- logical features (The Plant List, 2013). Seed disper- sal mainly occurs by bird predation, especially by the European jay Garrulus glandarius (Bossema, ...
Context 6
... present bioclimatic conditions, the model prediction was highly compatible with the known distribution range of Q. robur (Fig. 1), suggesting that Q. robur is almost at equilibrium with the climate ('almost at equilibrium' because there was no prediction in the eastern part of its distribution range). Under past bioclimatic conditions (the LIG, the LGM and the HOL), Q. robur showed instability during the transitions between these periods (specifically, LIG-LGM ...

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... Additionally, the genomic population structure points towards the existence of a second refugium further west. During the last glacial maximum, Anatolia retained much of its forest cover and served as a refugium for two oak species (Bagnoli et al. 2016, € Ulker et al. 2018, and the climate, especially in southern Anatolia, might have been suitable for the Middle Spotted Woodpecker (Kamp et al. 2019). Interestingly, nucleotide diversity in the island population of Lesvos was not considerably reduced compared with mainland populations. ...
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