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Directed acyclic graph of an integrated population model (IPM) for American alligators in Georgetown County, SC, USA. Parameters for which we computed posterior distributions are represented by circles, whereas observed data and extrinsic variables (nonupdated; shaded gray) are rectangular, with indexing for size class (j), site (survey route; i), temporal survey replicate (k), and year (t). The growth formula represents an alligator growth dataset (g; Wilkinson et al., 2016) that was used to derive transition probabilities for sex‐specific growth (ψjSex) outside of the IPM framework (Appendix S3). The large, dashed box represents the multistate mark–recapture–recovery model that used a mark–recapture dataset with dead recoveries (m), ψjSex, and a capture effort covariate (CEj,t) to estimate probabilities of recovery (r), detection (p.mj,t), and apparent survival (φj)—a shared parameter within the integrated likelihood for the state‐space abundance model. Input to the fecundity formula included the proportion of females in each size class (FPj; Rhodes & Lang, 1996; Woodward, 1996), the proportion of breeding females (BR; Wilkinson, 1983), and nest success (NS) and average annual clutch size (CLt) at the Tom Yawkey Wildlife Center (Wilkinson, 1983). The bottom row of boxes within the state‐space model reflect different types of nightlight survey data: Sized (cj,i,k,t), Aged (immatures: age.imi,k,t, adults: age.adi,k,t), or Unknown age (unki,k,t). These data were used to estimate two latent quantities specific to size class, the number of individuals encountered of known or unknown size (Detections; dj,i,k,t) and those encountered with size determined to at least immature/adult specificity (Aggregated; aj,i,k,t), with their associated detection probabilities (p.dj,i,k,t) and (p.a). Detection probability p.c was conditioned on the size‐classified counts. We modeled the effects of water level (WLi,k,t) and temperature (WTi,k,t) as survey replicate‐level covariates on p.dj,i,k,t. The true number of individuals in each size class (Nj,i,t) was estimated in the process component of the state‐space model by fecundity (fj,i,t), ψjSex, and φj, as well as the previous year's true number of individuals (Nj,i,t−1) and harvest (hj,i,t−1). We note that the true number of individuals in the first timestep (Nj,i,1) is not part of the state‐space model, so the dashed arrow between Nj,i,1 and Nj,i,t−1 reflects these collapsed dynamics.
Source publication
Population models often require detailed information on sex-, age-, or size-specific abundances, but population monitoring programs cannot always acquire data at the desired resolution. Thus, state uncertainty in monitoring data can potentially limit the demographic resolution of management decisions, which may be particularly problematic for stage...
Citations
... The resulting male bias is then maintained through the juvenile-to-adult transition, resulting in broadly observed male skews in adult populations. A long-term mark recapture study in the same alligator population from which hatchlings in the 2020 and 2021 experiments originated suggest apparent survival rapidly increases in juveniles and small adults relative to hatchlings, but not in a way that differs by sex (Lawson et al., 2022). When taken together, available evidence suggests strong influences of incubation temperature on early-life fitness are likely sufficient to drive differences in survival to maturity, even if these temperature effects wane over time. ...
Many ectotherms rely on temperature cues experienced during development to determine offspring sex. The first descriptions of temperature‐dependent sex determination (TSD) were made over 50 years ago, yet an understanding of its adaptive significance remains elusive, especially in long‐lived taxa.
One novel hypothesis predicts that TSD should be evolutionarily favoured when two criteria are met—(a) incubation temperature influences annual juvenile survival and (b) sexes mature at different ages. Under these conditions, a sex‐dependent effect of incubation temperature on offspring fitness arises through differences in age at sexual maturity, with the sex that matures later benefiting disproportionately from temperatures that promote juvenile survival.
The American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis) serves as an insightful model in which to test this hypothesis, as males begin reproducing nearly a decade after females. Here, through a combination of artificial incubation experiments and mark‐recapture approaches, we test the specific predictions of the survival‐to‐maturity hypothesis for the adaptive value of TSD by disentangling the effects of incubation temperature and sex on annual survival of alligator hatchlings across two geographically distinct sites.
Hatchlings incubated at male‐promoting temperatures (MPTs) consistently exhibited higher survival compared to those incubated at female‐promoting temperatures. This pattern appears independent of hatchling sex, as females produced from hormone manipulation at MPT exhibit similar survival to their male counterparts.
Additional experiments show that incubation temperature may affect early‐life survival primarily by affecting the efficiency with which maternally transferred energy resources are used during development.
Results from this study provide the first explicit empirical support for the adaptive value of TSD in a crocodilian and point to developmental energetics as a potential unifying mechanism underlying persistent survival consequences of incubation temperature.
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