Contexts in source publication

Context 1
... growth in advanced economies is slowing, life expectancy is rising, and dependency ratios are increasing steeply (Figures 1 and 2). 1 Population aging weighs on participation rates and hence potential growth, and could undermine the sustainability of social insurance systems. 2 However, while aging weighs on participation in most advanced economies, the United States stands out with a stark decline in participation since the late-1990s (Figure 3). ...
Context 2
... national averages conceal significant heterogeneity across states and metropolitan areas, as well as differences between urban and rural areas, or more generally between prospering hubs of innovation and progress on the one hand, and increasingly distressed and disconnected communities on the other (see e.g. Economic Innovation Group 1 Dependency ratios have been rising at least since the 1960s, and the pace of the increases accelerated in the early 2000s when the post-World War II 'baby boomer' generation started transitioning into retirement (Figure 1, panel 1). Dependency ratios are projected to increase further and reach a striking 50-60 percent in most advanced economies by the 2050s. ...
Context 3
... ratios are projected to increase further and reach a striking 50-60 percent in most advanced economies by the 2050s. These changes are driven both by a slowdown in population growth rates ( Figure 1, panel 2) and dramatic increases in (healthy) life expectancy ( Figure 2). Calculations based on United Nations population projections show that population growth rates will turn negative in 25 percent of advanced economies in the 2020s and that the median advanced economy will confront negative population growth by the late 2050s. ...
Context 4
... expectancy at birth increased significantly between 1960 and 2016; as has healthy life expectancy for both men and women ( Figure 2, panel 2). 2 The labor force participation rate is defined in this paper as the total labor force as a percentage of total population ages 15 or older. 3 The dependency ratio increased less in the United States than in 75 percent of countries and is projected to increase much less in the future as well, expected to stay more than 12 points below the median advanced economy in 2050 and more than 8 points in 2100 ( Figure 1, panel 1). Life expectancy decoupled from the trend in other advanced economies starting in the mid-1980s. ...
Context 5
... expectancy decoupled from the trend in other advanced economies starting in the mid-1980s. Life expectancy at birth was more than 2 years lower in the United States in 2012 compared to the median advanced economy (Figure 2, panel 1). The United States has also fallen behind in terms of healthy life expectancy: while it has risen for both men and women between 1990 and 2016, the United States has moved from the 75 th percentile to the 25 th percentile in the case of women and from the middle of the distribution to the 25 th percentile in the case of men. ...
Context 6
... evolution of labor force participation rates in US states shows marked breaks in 2000 and especially after the global financial crisis, with increases among a majority of states before 2000, declines in most states in the 2000-08 period and near-universal declines after 2008. Labor force participation rates rose in 32 out of 51 states between 1990 and 2000 ( Figure 4, panel 1). In the period from 2000 to 2016, participation rates declined in almost all states, with the exception of the District of Columbia and North Dakota (Figure 4, panel 2). ...
Context 7
... dependent variable is change in labor force participation rate. Figure 10 illustrates the fit of these regressions, and Figure 11 shows the relative contributions of each of these factors to 2000-2016 changes in participation rates (the decompositions are based on columns 4 and 5 respectively). 12 The decompositions point to significant contributions from aging: even at the metropolitan area level, the rise in dependency ratios can account for about half of the observed decline in participation rates (in line with the findings of Balakrishnan and others 2015; Council of Economic Advisers 2014; Hall 2014). ...
Context 8
... dependent variable is change in labor force participation rate. Figure 10 illustrates the fit of these regressions, and Figure 11 shows the relative contributions of each of these factors to 2000-2016 changes in participation rates (the decompositions are based on columns 4 and 5 respectively). 12 The decompositions point to significant contributions from aging: even at the metropolitan area level, the rise in dependency ratios can account for about half of the observed decline in participation rates (in line with the findings of Balakrishnan and others 2015; Council of Economic Advisers 2014; Hall 2014). ...
Context 9
... th percentile of the distribution of initial routinization scores), including many of those known for having experienced economic distress (such as Grand Rapids, MI and Buffalo, NY) but also booming metropolitan areas (such as Los Angeles, CA and Miami, FL), experienced larger subsequent declines in participation, in line with larger negative contributions from routinizability ( Figure 12, panel 1). ...
Context 10
... similar picture emerges for exposure to offshoring. Highly exposed areas (above the 75 th percentile) saw declines again roughly double those in areas less exposed to offshoring ( Figure 12, panel 2), with exposure to offshoring even overpredicting declines in participation. Highly exposed metropolitan areas, again, include many that have experienced economic distress, such as Detroit, MI, Cleveland, OH, and Akron, OH. ...
Context 11
... point decline in labor force participation and exposure to offshoring for a 1.6-percentage point decline. Other examples include: Grand Rapids, MI (1.5, 1.9), Fort Wayne, IN (1.5, 1.9), Lancaster, PA (1.5, 1.6), Akron, OH (1.4, 1.4), Cleveland, OH (1.3, 1.4), Dayton, OH (1.3, 1.5), Youngstown, OH (1.3, 1.2), Toledo, OH (1.3, 1.2), and Allentown, PA (1.3, ...
Context 12
... point decline in labor force participation and exposure to offshoring for a 1.6-percentage point decline. Other examples include: Grand Rapids, MI (1.5, 1.9), Fort Wayne, IN (1.5, 1.9), Lancaster, PA (1.5, 1.6), Akron, OH (1.4, 1.4), Cleveland, OH (1.3, 1.4), Dayton, OH (1.3, 1.5), Youngstown, OH (1.3, 1.2), Toledo, OH (1.3, 1.2), and Allentown, PA (1.3, ...
Context 13
... sample sizes are unfortunately too small to examine similar regressions at the state level, Figure 13 suggests that this link can hold at the state level as well: exposures to routinization and offshoring were especially high in the Southeast and Midwest, which also exhibited the largest declines in participation as jobs became automated or offshored. Indeed, states with higher exposures to routinization and offshoring in 2000 experienced larger subsequent declines in these exposures than states that were less exposed (Figure 14, Figure 15, panels 1 and 2). ...
Context 14
... sample sizes are unfortunately too small to examine similar regressions at the state level, Figure 13 suggests that this link can hold at the state level as well: exposures to routinization and offshoring were especially high in the Southeast and Midwest, which also exhibited the largest declines in participation as jobs became automated or offshored. Indeed, states with higher exposures to routinization and offshoring in 2000 experienced larger subsequent declines in these exposures than states that were less exposed (Figure 14, Figure 15, panels 1 and 2). This correlation between initial exposure and subsequent change holds at the metropolitan area level as well (Figure 15, panels 3 and 4). ...
Context 15
... sample sizes are unfortunately too small to examine similar regressions at the state level, Figure 13 suggests that this link can hold at the state level as well: exposures to routinization and offshoring were especially high in the Southeast and Midwest, which also exhibited the largest declines in participation as jobs became automated or offshored. Indeed, states with higher exposures to routinization and offshoring in 2000 experienced larger subsequent declines in these exposures than states that were less exposed (Figure 14, Figure 15, panels 1 and 2). This correlation between initial exposure and subsequent change holds at the metropolitan area level as well (Figure 15, panels 3 and 4). ...
Context 16
... states with higher exposures to routinization and offshoring in 2000 experienced larger subsequent declines in these exposures than states that were less exposed (Figure 14, Figure 15, panels 1 and 2). This correlation between initial exposure and subsequent change holds at the metropolitan area level as well (Figure 15, panels 3 and 4). 14 The measures of routinization and offshorability are composite measures that proxy the initial occupational mix of a metropolitan area, hence the vulnerability to, rather than the actual number of jobs lost to the global forces of technology and trade. ...
Context 17
... The measures of routinization and offshorability are composite measures that proxy the initial occupational mix of a metropolitan area, hence the vulnerability to, rather than the actual number of jobs lost to the global forces of technology and trade. However, the strong link between changes in employment shares across different occupations and changes in participation at the metropolitan areas confirms the importance of the occupational structure of the local labor market in shaping participation trends (Figure 16). Rising Exposure, 2000 (index) shares of 'old economy' occupations such as construction and production (despite the vulnerability of such occupations to automation) are associated with larger increases in participation rates (this could be picking up areas where such jobs have not been routinized yet), though so are some of the new/ booming occupations such as computer/mathematical, science or legal services (which may be proxying for more diverse labor markets). ...

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... Conversely, while technological change can benefit the economy as a whole, and create new opportunities in other sectors, it may not be fully benign from the point of view of some workers. A decline in the relative price of investment is associated with lower participation rates in countries where the initial occupation mix is tilted toward routine-task occupations, highlighting the difficulties of workers displaced by automation in finding alternative employment (see also Hilgenstock, 2018a, andHilgenstock, 2018b for sub-national evidence on the United States and Europe). This finding is consistent with the role of technological progress, along with varying exposure to routine occupations, in the decline in the labor share in AEs documented in IMF (2017b) and Dao et al. (2017), and the sizable employment losses in the United States' local labor markets with greater exposure to robots as documented in Acemoglu and Restrepo (2017). ...
... 28 Evidence from sub-national data presented in Koczan and Hilgenstock (2018a), and Koczan and Hilgenstock (2018b) also suggests that the adverse effects of technological progress on participation may have been significantly more pronounced and longer-lasting in the United States than in Europe. ...
Article
Technological advances raise productivity and growth, but are also likely to reshape labor markets. We examine the impact of automation on aggregate labor force participation rates and individuals’ attachment to the workforce in advanced economies. Cross-country analysis, which leverages the variation in the routinizability of occupations and occupational composition, points to significant negative effects of automation on the participation rates of prime-age men and women. Individual-level analysis confirms that workers previously employed in routinizable occupations are more likely to drop out of the labor force. Encouragingly, higher spending on active labor market programs and education are, however, associated with smaller negative effects of technological change on participation.