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This article illustrates the potential of the telecoupling framework to improve causal attribution in land system science (LSS). We shed light on the distinct analytical approaches that have characterized telecoupling research to date, how these can contribute to LSS with new insights, and whether such insights can improve causal attribution. By re...
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... The framework draws particular attention to spillover effects, something which is often hidden from most standard approaches to assessing the impacts of conflict ( Figure 3). This would enable better acknowledgement and thus exploration of the full dynamics of the impacts of conflict [83] similar to some of the impact assessment approaches advocated for climate change [84]. ...
... Systems are also defined depending on the directional movement of the flow considered and so are sending, receiving, or spillover systems. Investigation of flows between agents reveals drivers of change and the connections between causes and effects at different scales and locations, often meaning that causes can be discovered that are not obvious [82,83,106]. Spillover effects A spillover effect occurs when a system either 'sends' or 'receives', or is indirectly impacted by material or immaterial flows (e.g., money, commodities, information, etc) from other systems [81]. ...
Trajectories of human conflict have direct and indirect impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem function. These occur across terrestrial, marine and freshwater systems via the well-established drivers of biodiversity loss; land and sea-use change, climate change, overexploitation, pollution and invasive species. However, the mechanisms underlying the nature of some of these connections are still poorly explored, as is the compilation of existing evidence. Furthermore, indirect drivers, spillover effects and synergistic relationships between drivers are additional knowledge gaps. Building a full picture requires exploring the magnitude and directionality of impacts within the wider context of socioeconomic change and geopolitics with which conflict is associated. As this knowledge advances, conflict in its diverse forms is likely to emerge as the most overlooked and significant indirect driver of biodiversity loss internationally. Additionally, as being our greatest challenge in achieving sustainable development, specifically due to the primacy of its influence on all other sustainability challenges.
