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Over the past 10 years, the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) has conducted over 150 detailed multi-hazard, multi-infrastructure scenario analyses of a wide range of man-made and natural disasters. Using a model-based implementation of the Department of Homeland Security risk management framework, NISAC analyzes scenari...
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... et al (2001) and Brown (2009) suggest four types of connection or interdependency: (i) geographic connections or dependencies, where two or more infrastructure systems are co-located within the disruption zone; (ii) physical connections or dependencies, where one system is directly connected to the other (a Communications system connected to an Energy system); (iii) cyber dependencies, where one infrastructure uses information from another via information technologies; and (iv) logical dependencies, where an infrastructure system takes actions based on non- proximal, non-physical, non-cyber dependencies (a firm buying foreign goods based on the availability of one or more ports of entry). Notionally, these infrastructure interdependencies can be viewed as the graph, as suggested by Figure 3 (DHS [2009]). 7 This contrasts slightly with the formal albeit less readable definition from the DHS National Infrastructure Protection Plan (DHS 2011), "The multi-or bi-directional reliance of an asset, system, network, or collection thereof, within or across sectors, on input, interaction, or other requirement from other sources in order to function properly." ...
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To reduce the negative impacts of indirect losses after an extreme event, typically caused by long-lasting reduced functionality of critical structures and infrastructure systems, disaster managers need to plan the disaster relief activities considering the post-event resilience as one of the main determining factors.
However, this requires better...
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Recently, extreme events have highlighted their potentially tragic effects on structural and infrastructure systems. Resilience of the Community to these extreme vents is an important issue of increasing more concern for developing design methods. Such extreme events scenarios involve many uncertainties, such as the intensity, location, and period....
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... Scenarios are plausible, consistent, and coherent descriptions of the different possible future developments in the situation [60]. The concept was first used in military strategic planning and has been successfully applied in numerous fields including environment [61][62][63] and economics [64,65]. In recent years, scenario analysis has been applied to evaluate emergency strategies and disaster risk [66,67]. ...
An emergency platform is an informatization support platform for disaster information perception, disaster situational awareness, and emergency decision command. This is a key tool for ensuring the efficiency and effectiveness of emergency responses. Numerous large countries have conducted in-depth research on the key technologies of emergency platforms. Over the past 20 years, with the reform of emergency management mechanisms, China has developed two generations of emergency platform systems. This paper reviews the two generations of emergency platforms and summarizes their key technologies including multi-source-based monitoring and early warning, multi-hazard risk assessment, “scenario-response”-based decision support, synthetical forecasting based on incident chain, and emergency common operational picture (COP) for command and dispatch. Future research directions for the next generation emergency platforms are also proposed.
... Scenario analysis was first applied to military and has now been successfully applied in various areas, for example, environment [35][36][37][38][39][40], conomics [41,42], emerging technology [43], infrastructure [44] and construction project [45,46]. In recent years, scenario analysis has also been widely used in disaster risk and emergency management. ...
Water environmental emergency (WEE) in expressway region is a special kind of risk event with several characteristics, such as rarity, unconventionality, and harmfulness. The emergency decision-making (EDM) features, procedures, and methods are considerably different from the general decision-making problems. EDM quality is directly related to the timely implementation of a reasonable emergency plan. Therefore, methods should be developed to respond to emergencies immediately and scientifically and minimize the damage to water environment. This work introduces risk source identification and emergency classification and develops an emergency decision model based on scenario retrieval and case-based reasoning, according to the existing EDM model and characteristics of WEE in expressway region. The proposed method is validated through case analysis of Daguang expressway in China. This method provides an effective solution for EDM of WEEs in expressway region. The emergency measures can be implemented quickly and effectively after the occurrence of water environmental emergencies to control pollution events, provide scientific and feasible action guides for emergency processes, and enrich the case base of decision-making systems.
... The interlinkages of the critical infrastructure[28]. ...
Odisha is multi-hazard-prone state in the eastern part of India. Among the various disasters, the frequency and severity of cyclones have increased at an alarming rate in the last two decades, which is attributed to climatic change. The state government of Odisha has made great strides in reducing the lives lost in the state, but an increase in economic losses and damage to critical infrastructure has become a point of worry. Considering the power sector as the most crucial of all critical infrastructures, this paper explores the impact that cyclones have had on the sector in the last two decades in Odisha. The 4R concept of robustness, redundancy, rapidity and resourcefulness is applied to the power sector, and how this is supported by governance is studied. The study points towards need for the master planning of critical infrastructure, based on the risk assessment, establishment of funding mechanisms for mitigation measures and the standardization and quality checking of power sector equipment to withstand the wind speeds of category 4 and above. There needs to be a good coordination between the power sector and the disaster management sector with proper legislative provision. Knowledge management, training and capacity building is another important issue which needs to be focused on.
... Different to the risk paradigm, which is possible to measure given its use of probabilities and the size of potential loss, the resilience paradigm focuses on increasing the essential functionality of the system to absorb, adapt and recover from a disturbance, and is thus difficult to measure (Ridley 2017). Without possibility of the quantitative assessment of resilience, it has been claimed that monitoring and measuring is only possible in a qualitative way by using scenario analyses (Ehlen and Vargas 2013). Developing a method of assessing and measuring resilience applicable across various domains is a priority for various government and academic institutions with many ongoing research projects in the European Union, United States and Australia trying to provide a solution to this complex issue. ...
Resilience has become a catchword in academic and professional discourse due to, implicit or explicit, acceptance of traditional approaches to prevention and preparation. Derived from the Latin verb “resilire” – to jump back, currently mainly signifies the ability or capacity of a system to bounce back to the equilibrium, pre-disturbance state, but also the ability of the system to face with and adapt to change. The use of the term has a long tradition in different scientific disciplines – psychology, sociology, ecology, engineering, management, whereas it entered the scope of security studies at the beginning of 21st century. In the last two decades the growing use of the concept and the various conceptualizations have been observed in both academic papers and in strategic and legislative documents. There is a vast literature in the subfields of security studies such as national security, emergency and disaster management, human and corporate security that problematizes this concept. In security studies there are broadly two strands of thought – one that observes resilience as a desired state of the system, be it a nation, a community or infrastructure, and another one that proposes resilience as a risk management strategy that can be used when dealing with events characterized with a high degree of uncertainty.
... According to Ehlen and Vargas [51], while evaluating disaster risks collectively, one should also consider social and economic aspects. As an integrated risk assessment of China, four classes of determinants, i.e. population exposed to many hazards, economic susceptibility, the coping power of management and social infrastructure and adaptation power to future natural disasters was used to create China's disaster risk index [52]. ...
... It is also important to include social and economic dimensions in multi-hazard assessment methods [29]. China's disaster risk index was calculated for 31 provinces by using four types of factors: exposure (population exposed to earthquakes, floods, droughts, low temperatures/snow, and gale/hail), susceptibility (based on public infrastructure, income health, and economic status), coping capacity (based on governance, medical care, and material security), and adaptive capacity (related to future natural events) [30]. ...
Urban areas may be affected by multiple hazards, and integrated hazard susceptibility maps are needed for suitable site selection and planning. Furthermore, geological–geotechnical parameters, construction costs, and the spatial distribution of existing infrastructure should be taken into account for this purpose. Up-to-date land-use and land-cover (LULC) maps, as well as natural hazard susceptibility maps, can be frequently obtained from high-resolution satellite sensors. In this study, an integrated hazard susceptibility assessment was performed for a developing urban settlement (Mamak District of Ankara City, Turkey) considering landslide and flood potential. The flood susceptibility map of Ankara City was produced in a previous study using modified analytical hierarchical process (M-AHP) approach. The landslide susceptibility map was produced using the logistic regression technique in this study. Sentinel-2 images were employed for generating LULC data with the random forest classification method. Topographical derivatives obtained from a high-resolution digital elevation model and lithological parameters were employed for the production of landslide susceptibility maps. For the integrated hazard susceptibility assessment, the Mamdani fuzzy algorithm was considered, and the results are discussed in the present study. The results demonstrate that multi-hazard susceptibility assessment maps for urban planning can be obtained by combining a set of expert-based and ensemble learning methods.
... A failure in a power grid demonstrates a lack of engineered and engineering resilience to one or more hazards. A failure in a power grid may result in follow-up failures in the grid and other infrastructures [2]. Bo et al. [3] mapped and summarized 23 major blackouts from 1965 to 2012, representing major failures in power grids. ...
... Usually, multiple infrastructures are utilized by social or production systems, and a hazard often affects multiple infrastructures as well-illustrated by assessment of volcanic hazards by Wilson et al. [115], which also states the importance of hazards' profile for a country. Moreover, interdependencies [1,2] between infrastructures may impact the recovery and resilience of a single infrastructure. Therefore, simulation-based search/optimization for a resilient infrastructure would benefit from a simultaneous search/optimization for multisectoral resilience; e.g., Najafi et al. [52] described resilience improvement of power-water distribution system. ...
A structured collection of tools for engineering resilience and a research approach to improve the resilience of a power grid are described in this paper. The collection is organized by a two-dimensional array formed from typologies of power grid components and business processes. These two dimensions provide physical and operational outlooks, respectively, for a power grid. The approach for resilience research is based on building a simulation model of a power grid which utilizes a resilience assessment equation to assess baseline resilience to a hazards’ profile, then iteratively selects a subset of tools from the collection, and introduces these as interventions in the power grid simulation model. Calculating the difference in resilience associated with each subset supports multicriteria decision-making to find the most convenient subset of interventions for a power grid and hazards’ profile. Resilience is an emergent quality of a power grid system, and therefore resilience research and interventions must be system-driven. This paper outlines further research required prior to the practical application of this approach.
... These interdependencies range in type (e.g., physical, managerial, geographical) and are a result of the multiple connections between infrastructures, in which the state of one infrastructure is influenced or impacted by the state of another infrastructure (Rinaldi et al. 2001;Dudenhoeffer et al. 2006;Oliva and Setola 2015). To date, the research efforts for infrastructure interdependencies have largely focused on natural disasters, terrorist/intentional attacks, response plans to major failures, or policies pertaining to infrastructure (e.g., Pederson et al. 2006;Brown et al. 2004;Wijnia and Herder 2004;McDaniels et al. 2007;Zhang and Peeta 2011;Chou and Tseng 2010;Chang et al. 2014;Ehlen and Vargas 2013;Atef and Moselhi 2014). In addition to the crisis lens typically found in the literature, there is a need to evaluate system behavior from a chronic lens, to understand how exogenous interactions over time (such as population decline considered in this study), impact the endogenous system interdependencies that dictate daily operations and long-term planning. ...
Water, wastewater, and stormwater infrastructure systems are intrinsically interdependent, impacting the performance and operations of each individual infrastructure. The demands placed on and revenues generated for these infrastructures are impacted by human interactions, such as price elasticity and population dynamics. The consequences of these human-infrastructure interactions may be seen in shrinking cities, where chronic population decline has led to underfunded and underutilized infrastructures. This paper evaluates human-water and wastewater systems sector interdependencies in shrinking cities to explore water demand, utility revenues, public support, and payoff periods for retooling alternatives. To assess the dynamic behavior of the water sector systems, a hybrid framework is used that incorporates agent-based and system dynamics modeling. Driving the approach is data gathered from published and publicly available literature, two case studies, and a survey deployed to residents of 21 U.S. shrinking cities. This study quantifies the endogenous, physical interdependencies and the exogenous, complex human interactions. The epistemic uncertainty associated with human-infrastructure interactions is explored by incorporating stochastic parameters rather than the traditional deterministic parameters. Furthermore, the framework enables the assessment of interdependencies with parameters tailored to a city's unique characteristics.
... Scenario analysis for water resources management is defined as the process of estimating the expected value of a portfolio after a given period of time, assuming specific changes in the values of the portfolio's key factors that would affect comprehensive benefits of water resources management, such as changes in meteorology, hydrology, population development and economic development (Swart et al., 2004). Moreover, the scenario analysis enables decision-makers to face the future calmly and it is selected as the uncertainty analysis method for water resources management (Pallottino et al., 2005;Lautenbach et al., 2009;Ehlen and Vargas, 2013;Thiam et al., 2015). year). ...
Climate change, rapid economic development and increase of the human population are considered as the major triggers of increasing challenges for water resources management. This proposed integrated optimal allocation model (IOAM) for complex adaptive system of water resources management is applied in Dongjiang River basin located in the Guangdong Province of China. The IOAM is calibrated and validated under baseline period 2010 year and future period 2011-2030 year, respectively. The simulation results indicate that the proposed model can make a trade-off between demand and supply for sustainable development of society, economy, ecology and environment and achieve adaptive management of water resources allocation. The optimal scheme derived by multi-objective evaluation is recommended for decision-makers in order to maximize the comprehensive benefits of water resources management.
... The often complex and closely-coupled nature of user and infrastructure systems can stand in the way of identifying these interdependencies; systems engineering techniques offer a framework for overcoming the problem. Current methods for modelling infrastructure interdependencies rely on information elicited from domain experts, which brings with it risks of information subjectivity and model variability [Ehlen & Vargas, 2013]. A more repeatable and objective methodology is required to increase confidence in the validity of the models produced. ...
