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Country-by-country growth rates (%) of GDP per capita (A), with the coefficients of determination (R²) between national growth rates of GDP per capita and wheat (B) and maize yields (C) in the European countries in the period 1993–2017. Direction and significance of mean temperature trends in the European countries between 1993 and 2017. Calculations performed for 0.1° × 0.1° grid cells. N: negative direction; P: positive direction; S: significant; NS: non-significant. Data source: FAOSTAT³, World Bank⁶¹ and CRU TS 4.04⁶², blank map source: Eurostat GISCO⁶³, software: QGIS 3.10⁶⁴.
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Charting the long-term trends in European wheat and maize yields and harvested areas and the relation of yields to climatic and economic drivers, two profound spatial processes become apparent. One consequence of the relatively late modernization of Eastern Europe has been to shift the focus of grain production from West to East. The warming trend...
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... While our understanding of metabolic mechanisms for heat tolerance remains incomplete, hindering the discovery of vital biomarkers and traits, multiomics studies hold promise in unravelling these crucial components (Elbashir et al., 2017;Ullah et al., 2018). Despite advancements in high-throughput phenotyping and knowledge about genotype-environment interactions, achieving consistent genetic progress in essential wheat varieties has shown signs of stagnation (Pinke et al., 2022;Slafer et al., 2021). ...
Durum wheat (Triticum turgidum ssp. durum) is globally cultivated for pasta, couscous, and bulgur production. With the changing climate and growing world population, the need to significantly increase durum production to meet the anticipated demand is paramount. This review summarizes recent advancements in durum research, encompassing the exploitation of existing and novel genetic diversity, exploration of potential new diversity sources, breeding for climate‐resilient varieties, enhancements in production and management practices, and the utilization of modern technologies in breeding and cultivar development. In comparison to bread wheat (T. aestivum), the durum wheat community and production area are considerably smaller, often comprising many small‐family farmers, notably in African and Asian countries. Public breeding programs such as the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and the International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA) play a pivotal role in providing new and adapted cultivars for these small‐scale growers. We spotlight the contributions of these and others in this review. Additionally, we offer our recommendations on key areas for the durum research community to explore in addressing the challenges posed by climate change while striving to enhance durum production and sustainability. As part of the Wheat Initiative, the Expert Working Group on Durum Wheat Genomics and Breeding recognizes the significance of collaborative efforts in advancing toward a shared objective. We hope the insights presented in this review stimulate future research and deliberations on the trajectory for durum wheat genomics and breeding.
... Furthermore, redefinition has expanded to reflect its potential impacts on carbon sequestration, and climate change mitigation, and is an important resource for the generation of bioenergy and the establishment of a circular economy [2][3][4]. Northern Europe, including Nordic countries, the UK, Ireland, and Baltic states plays a significant role in cereal grain production encompassing wheat, barley, maize, oats, and rye within the European Union [5,6]. ...
The global escalation in cereal production, essential to meet growing population demands, simultaneously augments the generation of cereal crop residues, estimated annually at approximately 3107 × 10 6 Mg/year. Among different crop residue management approaches, returning them to the soil can be essential for various ecological benefits, including nutrient recycling and soil carbon sequestration. However, the recalcitrant characteristics of cereal crop residues pose significant challenges in their management, particularly in the decomposition rate. Therefore, in this review, we aim to summarize the influence of different agricultural practices on enhancing soil microbial decomposer communities, thereby effectively managing cereal crop residues. Moreover, this manuscript provides indirect estimates of cereal crop residue production in Northern Europe and Lithuania, and highlights the diverse roles of lignocellulolytic microorganisms in the decomposition process, with a particular focus on enzymatic activities. This review bridges the knowledge gap and indicates future research directions concerning the influence of agricultural practices on cereal crop residue-associated microbial consortia.
... Globally, one of the areas where wheat and maize production has grown most dynamically over recent decades is Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) (FAO 2023;Tikhomirova 2023), and a major part of the European yield gap, i.e. growing potential, has been identified as being located in these regions (Schils et al. 2018). While the CEE group of countries is a pillar of global food security, it is in the southern part of this region that the zone of greatest sensitivity of cereal production to the warming climate and shrinking freshwater resources in Europe has been identified (Olesen et al. 2011;Pinke et al. 2022). Other studies also underline the high degree of climatic sensitivity of CEE countries with continental climate, where decreasing soil moisture and changing atmospheric circulation (Seneviratne et al. 2014) induce extremes of heat and severe droughts (Fischer et al. 2007;Bastos et al. 2021). ...
Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is a pillar of global wheat and maize production. However, certain areas within the CEE region have become climate change hotspots, experiencing intensifying water deficits and drought pressure, rising mean and maximum temperatures. This study focuses on the long-term statistical relationships between climatic factors and rain-fed wheat and maize yields for different landscape types in Hungary over 30-year time windows between 1921 and 2010. The relationship between the variances of the detrended climatic parameters and crop yields was tested employing both simple and multifactorial linear models according to landscape types and periods. The sensitivity of wheat yields to spring-summer mean temperature shifted dynamically from the western part of the country to east (from cooler and wetter hilly landscapes to plains) between the periods 1921-1950 and 1981-2010. The cooling observed in summer temperature between the periods 1921-1950 and 1951-1980 supported an increase in wheat yields by an estimated 0.11-0.43 t ha −1 year −1 , while the 0.9-1.2 °C warming of May-July temperature may have cut wheat yields by an estimated 0.44-0.56 t ha −1 year −1 in various regions over 1981-2010. That being said, the regional sensitivity of wheat yields to May-July mean temperature did not display substantial differences between the periods 1921-1950 and 1981-2010. Besides negative effects, climate change had a positive impact on wheat yields, since increasing January-March mean temperatures mitigated the negative impact of warming summer temperatures on wheat yields by an estimated 16-34% over 1981-2010. In this 30-year period, increasing mean temperature together with decreasing precipitation explained 46-75% of the variances in maize yields reducing annual maize harvests by an estimated 11.1-12.4% year −1 .
... Agriculture is facing profound challenges in many parts of Europe. The need for technological change to address these challenges has often been highlighted (Cuadros-Casanova et al., 2023;MacPherson et al., 2022;Mizik, 2023;Pinke et al., 2022). For example, negative environmental impacts could be minimized through more precise management of arable fields, or Global Positioning System (GPS) guidance technologies could help farmers carry out cultivation measures and minimize environmental stress (Batte & Ehsani, 2006;Chivenge et al., 2021;Robertson et al., 2012;Tey & Brindal, 2022). ...
The digitization of agriculture is widely discussed today. But despite proven benefits, its acceptance in agricultural practice remains low. In small-structured areas, this trend is even more pronounced. There are even known cases where farmers initially purchased and used technology, but then stopped using it due to lack of profitability or other reasons. Interestingly, despite extensive research on precision agriculture technologies (PATs), the processes of adoption and phase-out with their associated economic impacts have never been studied. This paper provides a methodological framework for evaluating the economics of PAT deployment, taking into account changes during the period of use; the framework provides decision rules for determining the appropriate time to phase out technology. Using a selected PAT, a farm model, and defined entry and exit scenarios, it was shown that farms with outdated technology and farms with retrofittable technology are at a significant economic disadvantage during implementation compared to farms already using technology suitable for site-specific fertilization or farms relying on the use of a contractor. And even in the event of a phase-out, the two disadvantaged starting conditions face significantly greater uncertainties and costs. Moreover, the decision to phase out in time is difficult, as making an informed and fact-based decision is not possible after the first year of use. Therefore, it is advisable that farmers are not only accompanied before and during phase-in, but also receive professional support during use.
... The dynamic growth in the global average of grain production per capita over the past two decades recalls the glory days of the Green Revolution, leading to an exceeding figure of more than 0.4 tonnes per capita annually, a never-before-seen quantity of staple food (Pinke et al., 2022). Although humankind produces a sufficient quantity of food, rapid food price rises fuelled by post-COVID-inflation and Russia's aggression in Ukraine have caused and continue to cause serious uncertainties in global food security ('Food insecurity', 2022;Carriquiry, Dumortier and Elobeid, 2022;Mozaffarian et al., 2022). ...
... Taken country-by-country, surveying, and mapping data considerable differences in the regional patterns of yields appear in 2022. This year has obviously confirmed that increasing sensitivity to climate change has been pulling the focus of agricultural production from south to north in the northern hemisphere (Pinke et al., 2022). While farmers in the Baltic Sea Region, such as Denmark and Lithuania harvested previously unheard-of high yields of cereals and rapeseed, south of latitude 50° (the line between Belgium and Czechia), yields were reduced by drought. ...
2022 will be remembered as a year of severe drought in Europe. Production losses on account of the drought from the six crops representing the most extensive harvested area may even have run to an estimated 13 billion euros in the EU27. Considering the ratio of the six crops in all croplands, the total revenue loss to cropland farming may have reached twice as much (25–30 billion euros). This figure indicates the magnitude of the challenge represented by climate change to the continent. While most of Europe suffered from severe drought in the spring and summer of 2022, the agricultural losses were region-specific and concentrated in the Western Mediterranean and Carpathian-Balkan regions. Maize and sunflower suffered the highest losses, while data for wheat, barley, rapeseed, and rye showed an ambivalent picture. Losses in production of cropland farming associated with extremely high market prices have even reached 1–2% of GDP in some countries of the Carpathian-Balkan region. The paradox of last year was that despite drought hitting cropland farming severely, agriculture in the European Union created a very high gross added value due to skyrocketing food prices.
... The question of the plausibility of anticipated technology changes can be discussed in numerous ways, as demonstrated in the literature: (i) in the light of technology changes observed in the past (Ewert et al., 2005;Ray et al., 2019;Pinke et al., 2022), (ii) physiological principles, limits to increased resource use efficiencies (Monteith and Moss, 1977), and/or related studies applying model-based crop ideotyping . Recent years have seen a surge in studies on model-aided design of future climate-resilient cereal cultivars Hammer et al., 2016;Tao et al., 2017;Messina et al., 2018), including the crops considered in this study: wheat (Rehman et al., 2021;Senapati et al., 2022;Stella et al., 2023) and maize Messina et al., 2015). ...
... Recently, Pinke et al. (2022), studying long-term trends in European wheat and maize yields and harvested areas, analysed the relationship between yields and climatic and economic drivers. They observed a shift in grain production from West to East due to economic growth, including access to advanced technology, and a shift and expansion of harvested area from South to North due to the warming trends. ...
To address the rising global food demand in a changing climate, yield gaps (Y G), the difference between potential yields under irrigated (Y P) or rainfed conditions (Y WL) and actual farmers' yields (Y a), must be significantly narrowed whilst raising potential yields. Here, we examined the likely impacts of climate change (including changes in climatic variability) and improvements in agricultural technologies on crop yields and yield gaps. Eight rigorously tested crop simulation models were calibrated for wheat and maize and run at 10 different sites around the world. Simulations were performed to estimate Y P , Y WL and yields achievable under three locally defined technology packages: TP 0 represents average farmer's practice, while TP 1 and TP 2 are increasingly advanced technologies. Simulations were run for the baseline (1981-2010) and twelve future climate scenarios for 2050, representing changes in the means of climate variables and in the variability of daily temperature and dry/wet spell durations. Our basic hypotheses were that (H1) mean climate changes combined with increased weather variability lead to more negative yield impacts than mean climate changes alone, and (H2) advanced technologies would serve as effective adaptations under future climatic conditions. We found that crop responses were dependent on site characteristics, climate scenarios and adopted technologies. Our findings did not support H1. As for H2, the improved technology packages increased wheat and maize yields at all sites, but yield gap reduction varied substantially among sites. Future studies should consider a broader range of climate scenarios and methods for analysing potential shifts in climate variability. Moreover, it is recommended to co-create and evaluate climate zone-specific climate-smart crop production technologies in interaction with a wide range of local stakeholders. Abbreviations Y P = Potential yield as simulated for irrigated conditions (kg ha −1) Y WL = Water-limited potential yield as simulated for rain-fed conditions (kg ha −1) Y a = Actual farmers' yield under current average farm-ers' management practices (kg ha −1) Y a-future = Future actual farmers' yield under assumed average farmers' practices in 2050 (kg ha −1) Y G = Yield gap (Y P-Y a or Y WL-Y a , in kg ha −1, 100*(Y P-Y a)/Y P or 100*(Y WL-Y a)/Y WL , in%) RY = Relative yield(100*(Y a /Y WL) or 100*(Y a /Y P), in%) TP 0 = Current technology (current average farmer's practice regarding cultivar choice, sowing date, water and nutrient management) TP 1 = Conservative change in technology (cultivar, sowing date, water and nutrient management) TP 2 = Advanced, eco-efficient technology improvement (cultivar, sowing date, water and nutrient management)
... a magyar mezőgazdaság két korábbi nagy modernizációs hullámát vizsgálva a tanulmány egy másfél évszázada ismétlődő mintázatot azonosít: a modernizációs törekvések alacsony innovációs igényű termékek előállítását biztosító agrárstruktúrát eredményeztek. beVezetÉs A globális gabonatermelés egy főre vetített átlaga a mezőgazdasági forradalom dicsőséges napjait felidézve dinamikusan növekedett az utóbbi évtizedek során, és 2020-ra meghaladta a 0,4 tonna/fő mennyiséget, korábban sosem tapasztalt bőségét a megtermelt gabonának (Pinke et al., 2022). Bár az emberiség gabonaigényét lényegesen meghaladó mennyiség áll rendelkezésre (Hic et al., 2016) és az élelmiszer-túltermelés komoly zavarok-hoz vezet az EU-ban (Bourden, 2024), a Covid-világjárvány során a kereskedelmi rendszerben mutatkozó zavarok, a post-Covid infláció és Oroszország Ukrajna elleni agressziója, különösen az ukrán élelmiszerexport orosz blokkolása átmeneti bizonytalanságot okoztak egyes régiók élelmezésbiztonságában (Food insecurity, 2022; Mozaffarian et al., 2022). ...
... ábra) elgondolkoztató mintázatú területi különbségeket találunk. Egyrészt ennek az évnek az adatai is illeszkednek abba a hosszú távon megfigyelt átalakulási folyamatba, amely során a klímaváltozás az agrártermelés súlypontját délről északi irányba tolja Európában (Pinke et al., 2022). A Benelux államokban és a Balti térség országainak többségében (Németországot és Svédországot is beleértve) kiváló terméseredményeknek örvendezhettek a gazdálkodók. ...
... A folyamat eredményeként a kelet-európai országokból származó gabona már évekkel ezelőtt letarolta a magyar gabonaexport korábbi felvevőpiacának számító Földközi-tenger térségét. Ezzel párhuzamosan a klímaváltozás következtében a búza és a kukorica betakarítási területében egy dél-észak irányú eltolódást figyelhetünk meg (Pinke et al., 2022). A klímaváltozás eredményeként a magyar kukorica hagyományos felvevőpiacának számító Lengyelország kukoricaexportőrré vált. ...
A dolgozat a 2022. évi aszálynak az Európai Unió (EU) tagállamaiban legnagyobb területen termesztett gabonák és olajos magvak terméshozamaira gyakorolt hatását vizsgálja, azt feltételezve, hogy a meteorológiai esemény az EU nagy részén komoly nyomot hagyott a termésátlagokban. Ezzel szemben jelentősebb terméskiesés a Kárpát-Balkán és a mediterrán régiók országaiban mutatkozott, amely csak Magyarországon, Romániában és Bulgáriában okozhatott látványos kiesést az országos GDP-ben (1,5%, 1,4% és 0,7%). Magyarországra fókuszálva a növénytermesztési ágazatot több alkalommal is sújtotta a 2022. évihez hasonló mértékű aszálykár. Feltűnő azonban, hogy a klímaváltozásnak leginkább kitett és az utóbbi években kibontakozó globális mezőgazdasági alapanyag-túltermelési válságban érintett haszonnövények korábban is magas részaránya a rendszerváltás óta tovább növekedett az agrárium kibocsátásában és az agrárterületekben. A magyar mezőgazdaság két korábbi nagy modernizációs hullámát vizsgálva a tanulmány egy másfél évszázada ismétlődő mintázatot azonosít: a modernizációs törekvések alacsony innovációs igényű termékek előállítását biztosító agrárstruktúrát eredményeztek.
... The question of the plausibility of anticipated technology changes can be discussed in numerous ways, as demonstrated in the literature: (i) in the light of technology changes observed in the past (Ewert et al., 2005;Ray et al., 2019;Pinke et al., 2022), (ii) physiological principles, limits to increased resource use efficiencies (Monteith and Moss, 1977), and/or related studies applying model-based crop ideotyping . Recent years have seen a surge in studies on model-aided design of future climate-resilient cereal cultivars Hammer et al., 2016;Tao et al., 2017;Messina et al., 2018), including the crops considered in this study: wheat (Rehman et al., 2021;Senapati et al., 2022;Stella et al., 2023) and maize Messina et al., 2015). ...
... Recently, Pinke et al. (2022), studying long-term trends in European wheat and maize yields and harvested areas, analysed the relationship between yields and climatic and economic drivers. They observed a shift in grain production from West to East due to economic growth, including access to advanced technology, and a shift and expansion of harvested area from South to North due to the warming trends. ...
... It is known that the formation of the crop yield is connected with a complex of abiotic factors, among which natural and climatic conditions occupy an important place [Maidanovych, 2020;Zahra et al., 2023]. A necessary condition for the effective development of grain production is the scientific substantiation of the rational placement of grain crops, taking into account the climatic conditions that have changed significantly over the past decades [Bönecke et al., 2020;Pinke et al., 2022]. It is also necessary to note the occurrence of adverse weather phenomena, in particular, long periods without precipitation, low amounts of precipitation, as well as abnormally high rates of precipitation in very short periods. ...
... The conversion of resources via economic production requires energy consumption. This proclivity is a major contributor to global and local environmental change (Pinke et al. 2022). Due to the adverse effect of such business operations on ecosystems and communities, businesses across sectors are required to develop new goods, strategies, and processes to solve issues, Responsible Editor: Arshian Sharif including resource exploitation and excessive pollution (Shultz 2022). ...
Despite a spike in publications on business strategies focused on environmental awareness subjects in recent years, business-environment nexus research has recently been criticized for failing to address urgent issues like climate change. Therefore, we endeavored to do a trend analysis to find knowledge gaps in business studies related to the interaction between businesses, the environment, and society using bibliometric. Our study reveals that the area of business sustainability has evolved over the past decade from an internal conquest to include external indices like the environment, such as the debate over the relative merits of social and economic performance and the greening of management. Our findings point to three (3) main conclusions. (1) Many corporations see the urgency of green practices and have distinctive organizational sustainability and business strategies for environmental crises. (2) Business strategy and environment research are concentrated within developed countries to the neglect of developing countries. (3).The literature on business sustainability has not yet given much attention to the managerial implications and effects of climate change. Therefore, scholars must test and develop business-environmental nexuses to aid in sustainable production and consumption improvement.
