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Concept of vulnerability (to extreme weather). Socio-economic factors are important drivers of vulnerability. Source: own representation.
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Impacts of extreme weather events are relevant for regional (in the sense of subnational) economies and in particular cities in many aspects. Cities are the cores of economic activity and the amount of people and assets endangered by extreme weather events is large, even under the current climate. A changing climate with changing extreme weather pa...
Contexts in source publication
Context 1
... and''social vulnerability' or''- inherent vulnerability' when not. In the context of extreme weather events, the likelihood of impacts is also related to in- herent properties of the system, e.g., because of the anthropogenic contribution to climate change. Therefore, it makes sense to use the broader concept of biophysical vulnerability. In Fig. 1, the connection between different terms explaining vulnerability is ...
Context 2
... the following, an attempt is made to combine the regional, temporal and sectoral dimension of losses from extreme weather events, focusing on European conditions. Frei and Kowalewski (2013) have developed a climate change vulnerability index with a regional and sectoral scope. The sensitivity (cf. Fig. 1) for different sectors is measured by the respective water intensity, energy in- tensity, diversity of inputs and dependence on the traffic infra- structure. The regional scale is implemented via regionalized in- put-output tables which will be mentioned again in Section 4. The exposition to climate change is quantified by the regional ...
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... Several studies have revealed the drawback of heatwaves worldwide, particularly in Asia [9], in the Middle East [10], in America [11,12], in Europe [13][14][15] in France [16,17], in Russia [13,18], in Africa [19,20], and in West Africa [21][22][23]. These investigations have shed light on important damage, losses of life, and downturns in economies, as highlighted by [24]. ...
... In fact, CORDEX simulations were mainly used in many studies conducted over West Africa for a validation of the mean climate state, its variability, and extreme events [35][36][37][38][39][40], as well as to better understand relevant regional/local climate phenomena and their variability and changes through downscaling [41]. This study aims to provide information about the future climate changes under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and global warming levels [23,[42][43][44][45][46][47]. The RCPs are a set of scenarios containing emission, concentration, and land use trajectories based on radiative forcing in w/m 2 [48,49]. ...
This study analyzes the potential response of the seasonal cycle of heatwaves (HWDI) and dry (CDD) and wet (CWD) spell indices over West Africa for the near- (2031–2060) and the far-future periods (2071–2100) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios using Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) simulations. Despite the fact that some relative biases (an underestimation of 30% for CDD, an overestimation of about 60% for CWD, and an overestimation of about 50% for HWDI) exist, during the historical period (1976–2005) in general, the CORDEX simulations and their ensemble mean outperform the seasonal variability in the above-mentioned indices over three defined subregions of West Africa (i.e., the Gulf of Guinea and Western and Eastern Sahel). They show high correlation coefficients (0.9 in general) and less RMSE. They project an increase (about 10 and 20 days) in heatwave days for both the near- and far-future periods over the whole West African region under both RCP scenarios. In addition, projections indicate that the Sahel regions will experience a decrease (about 5 days) in wet spell days from March to November, while in the Gulf of Guinea, a decrease (about 3 days) is projected throughout the year, except in the CCCLM simulation, which indicates an increase (about 5 days) during the retreat phase of the monsoon (October to December). Our results also highlight an increase (about 80%) in dry spells over the Sahel regions that are more pronounced during the March–November period, while over the Gulf of Guinea, an increase (about 40%) is projected over the entire year. Moreover, the months of increasing dry spells and decreasing wet spells coincide, suggesting that countries in these regions could be simultaneously exposed to dry seasons associated with a high risk of drought and heatwaves under future climate conditions.
... Precipitation patterns can impact water availability (Rahmani & Fattahi, 2023;Todaro et al., 2022), agricultural output, and ecosystems. Additionally, extreme weather events such as storms, droughts, floods, and heatwaves can cause harm to people's health, damage infrastructure, and disrupt economic activities (Jahn, 2015;Madhukar et al., 2021). ...
Understanding the dynamics of temperature
trends is vital for assessing the impacts of climate
change on a regional scale. In this context, the present
study focuses on Madhya Pradesh state in Central
Indian region to explore the spatial-temporal distribution
patterns of temperature changes from 1951
to 2021. Gridded temperature data obtained from the
Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) in 1° × 1°
across the state are utilised to analyse long-term trends
and variations in temperature. The Mann-Kendall
(MK) test and Sen’s slope (SS) estimator were used
to detect the trends, and Pettitt’s test was utilised for
change point detection. The analysis reveals significant
warming trends in Madhya Pradesh during the
study period during specific time frames. The temperature
variables, such as the annual mean temperature
(Tmean), maximum temperature (Tmax), and minimum temperature (Tmin), consistently increase, with the
most pronounced warming observed during winter.
The trend analysis reveals that the rate of warming
has increased in the past few years, particularly since
the 1990s. However, Pettitt’s test points out significant
changes in the temperature, with Tmean rising from
25.46 °C in 1951–2004 to 25.78 °C in 2005–2021
(+0.33 °C), Tmax shifting from 45.77 °C in 1951–2010
to 46.24 °C in 2011–2021 (+0.47°C), and Tmin increasing
from 2.65 °C in 1951–1999 to 3.19 °C in 2000–
2021 (+0.46 °C). These results, along with spatialtemporal
distribution maps, shed important light on the
alterations and variations in monthly Tmean, Tmax, and
Tmin across the area, underlining the dynamic character
of climate change and highlighting the demand for
methods for adaptation and mitigation.
... While more recent literature has underscored the necessary focus on cities to analyse the impact of cold waves and extreme snowfall (Jahn, 2015), empirical analysis based on newly available data sources have kept a citywide approach (Freeman, 2011;Wang and Taylor, 2015). In turn, other researchers have analysed the impact of snowfall events at larger or smaller scales of analysis, like the regional scale (Schmidlin, 1990;Squires et al., 2014), that of key locations like airports (Cerruti and Decker, 2011), or that of specific urban systems like the road network (Jenelius and Mattsson, 2012). ...
Understanding the impact of climate change on cities is fundamental to address the increasing occurrence of extreme weather events. This research aims to raise awareness and emphasise the need and potential of proactive measures to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change. To do so, this article conducts a case study for a huge snowfall that occurred in the city of Madrid (Spain) in January 2021, blocking the city for several days. The analysis is based on geolocated big data sourced from Google Popular Times (GPT), which captures the occupancy of establishments throughout the city over the entire study period. An exploratory spatial-temporal analysis has been conducted to examine the impact of the snowfall on the daily activities of the city, taking into consideration the demographic characteristics. The findings reveal a distinction in the impact of the snowfall on activities. Essential activities experience less impact compared to leisure activities. Furthermore, at the socio-economic level, the impact on low-income neighbourhoods is observed to be less affected than on high-income neighbourhoods. The implications of this research contribute to the body of knowledge on climate change resilience and adaptation, providing valuable insights for urban management strategies and informing future research in this field.
... In the case of lower temperatures, the opposite can occur, i.e. a decrease in precipitation. In extreme cases, such as prolonged droughts or floods, changes in temperature and precipitation can lead to catastrophic consequences, such as crop loss or property damage [54], [1], [45]. Proper monitoring of precipitation and temperature is crucial to understanding climate change and assessing the polarization of climate phenomena [55]. ...
This article presents an analysis of monthly precipitation totals based on the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre database and monthly mean temperatures based on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data for 377 catchments located around the world. Data sequences covering 110 years from 1901 to 2010 were analysed. The long-term sequences of precipitation and temperature were used to assess the variability of climate extremes, referred to here as polarisation. Measures of polarisation used in the natural sciences are discussed. A simple measure of polarisation was presented and applied to long-term sequences of monthly precipitation totals and monthly mean temperatures. Due to the nature of the proposed polarisation measure, other characteristics of precipitation and temperature sequences are also presented as a background for the discussion of the polarisation index. The study showed the existence of trends related to the polarisation of temperature and precipitation phenomena. As a result of the analysis, trends of polarisation factors in the area of precipitation and temperature were identified in 11 catchments out of the 377 analysed catchments. The trend analysis used Mann-Kendall tests at a level of significance of 5%. The Pettitt test was used to determine the point of trend change for precipitation and temperature data. The whole investigation is supported by rich graphical analyses, and the results are presented in tabular form.
... Heatwave events pose a substantial risk to ecosystems (Stillman, 2019) and the economy (Jahn, 2015), but specifically to human health and wellbeing (Vicedo-Cabrera et al., 2021), especially in combination with compound perils: increased air pollution (Fischer et al., 2004;Shaposhnikov et al., 2014) or fire risk (Parente et al., 2018;Deb et al., 2020) and heatdrought-induced crop failure (Ribeiro et al., 2020;Beillouin et al., 2020). The adverse effects of temperature extremes, which are especially destructive for developing countries (Akhtar, 2020), should be expected to worsen as anthropogenic climate change affects hot extremes almost globally today already (IPCC, 2021). ...
Recent heatwaves such as the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave have shattered temperature records across the globe. The likelihood of experiencing extreme temperature events today is already strongly increased by anthropogenic climate change, but it remains challenging to determine to what degree prevalent atmospheric and land surface conditions aggravated the intensity of a specific heatwave event. Quantifying the respective contributions is therefore paramount for process understanding but also for attribution and future projection statements conditional on the state of atmospheric circulation or land surface conditions. We here propose and evaluate a statistical framework based on extreme value theory, which enables us to learn the respective statistical relationship between extreme temperature and process variables in initial-condition large ensemble climate model simulations. Elements of statistical learning theory are implemented in order to integrate the effect of the governing regional circulation pattern. The learned statistical models can be applied to reanalysis data to quantify the relevance of physical process variables in observed heatwave events. The method also allows us to make conditional attribution statements and answer “what if” questions. For instance, how much would a heatwave intensify given the same dynamic conditions but at a different warming level? How much additional warming is needed for the same heatwave intensity to occur under average circulation conditions? Changes in the exceedance probability under varying large- and regional-scale conditions can also be assessed. We show that each additional degree of global warming increases the 7 d maximum temperature for the Pacific Northwest area by almost 2 ∘C, and likewise, we quantify the direct effect of anti-cyclonic conditions on heatwave intensity. Based on this, we find that the combined global warming and circulation effect of at least 2.9 ∘C accounts for 60 %–80 % of the 2021 excess event intensity relative to average pre-industrial heatwave conditions.
... However, few studies explore extreme cold events as stated by the AR4, AR5 and AR6 of the Intergovernmental Panel of Experts on Climate Change (IPCC 2007(IPCC , 2021IPCC et al. 2013) despite their huge economic and social impacts (such as health issues, energy supply, agriculture, snow tourism or meteo-sensitive industry). Even in a global warming context, extreme cold events in Europe thus deserve much attention: in case of fuel and gas shortages (as the ones in winter 2023 due to the Russian-Ukrainian war began in 2022 (Abnett and Sharafedin 2022)), the negative consequences on the European economy, energy market and public health to cold waves can be magnified (Jahn 2013;Añel et al. 2017). In consequence, the assessment of the extreme cold waves in Europe as simulated by global climate models (GCM) remains critical to consistently model CW in the future. ...
Few studies explore extreme wintertime European cold waves (CW) despite their huge economic, and social impacts and a recent decade punctuated by CW (February 2012, January 2017 or March 2018), while Europe bets on mild winter to avoid an energy crisis in 2023. Here, we investigate potential early CW warning signals and model biases over the winters (November-to-March) of the 1950–2005 period, calculating the atmospheric and surface conditions of key climate variables (e.g. snow, incoming radiation, cloudiness, pressure, winds and sea surface temperatures variables) both in reanalyses and climate models, before and during CW events. We show that global coupled climate models systematically overestimate the number of CW in the present-day period. Until 30 days before CW, some robust and significant early patterns emerge, both in models and reanalyses: weak atmospheric blocking, anomalously negative North Sea surface temperatures (SST) and a deficit of incoming longwave radiation. Downward shortwave radiation is anomalously positive during and before CW which weakens arguments for direct negative solar forcing on winter extreme cold events in Europe. Climate models share in their great majority (> 80%) these patterns (for dynamical and radiative-related variables, spatial correlation r > 0.7) and can correctly simulate the sign of climate variables anomalies during and at least 7 days before CW. We find that excess of European snow cover and snow depth are unlikely to cause occurrences of CW, but the advection of cold air masses (North-East) emerges as a potential precursor signal of a majority of CW. In a context of climate change, fossil fuels scarcity and increased uncertainty due to geopolitical events, it is crucial to study the sensitivity of the energy, health and agriculture sectors to compound extreme weather, including cold waves.
... The damage that extreme events cause is not only related to the frequency, severity or magnitude of the events but also to socioeconomic factors (Botzen et al., 2010;Jahn, 2015;Frame et al., 2020;IPCC, 2021) such as land use, income, education, employment and community safety. Different economic and social structures will alter the adaptive capacity to climate change. ...
It is now certain that human-induced climate change is
increasing the incidence of extreme temperature, precipitation and drought
events globally. A critical aspect of these extremes is their potential
concurrency that can result in substantial impacts on society and
environmental systems. Therefore, quantifying concurrent extremes in current
and projected climate is necessary to take measures and adapt to future
challenges associated with such conditions. Here we investigate changes in
individual and concurrent extremes in multi-model simulations of the sixth
phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) for different
global warming levels (GWLs). We focus on the individual and simultaneous
occurrence of the extreme events, encompassing heatwaves, droughts, maximum
1 d precipitation (Rx1day), and extreme wind (wind), as well as the compound
events heatwave–drought and Rx1day–wind in the pre-industrial period
(1850–1900; reference period), for approximately present conditions
(+1 ∘C of global warming), and at three higher global warming
levels (GWLs of +1.5, +2 and +3 ∘C). We focus our analysis on 139 countries and three climatic macro-regions:
northern mid- and high-latitude countries (MHC), subtropical countries
(STC), and tropical countries (TRC). We find that, on a global scale, most
individual extremes become more frequent and affect more land area for
higher GWLs. Changes in frequency of individual heatwaves, droughts, Rx1day and extreme wind with higher GWLs cause shifts in timing and disproportionate
increases in frequency of concurrent events across different months and
different regions. As a result, concurrent occurrences of the investigated
extremes become 2.0 to 9.6 times more frequent at +3 ∘C of
global warming compared to the pre-industrial period. At +3 ∘C
the most dramatic increase is identified for concurrent heatwave–drought
events, with a 9.6-times increase for MHC, an 8.4-times increase for STC
and a 6.8-times increase for TRC compared to the pre-industrial period. By
contrast, Rx1day–wind events increased the most in TRC (5.3 times), followed
by STC (2.3 times) and MHC (2.0 times) at +3 ∘C with respect to
the pre-industrial period. Based on the 2015 population, these frequency
changes imply an increase in the number of concurrent heatwave–drought
(Rx1day–wind) events per capita for 82 % (41 %) of countries. Our
results also suggest that there are almost no time periods (on average 0
or only 1 month per year) without heatwaves, droughts, Rx1day and extreme
wind for 21 countries at +1.5 ∘C of global warming, 37 countries
at +2 ∘C and 85 countries at +3 ∘C, compared to 2
countries at +1 ∘C of global warming. This shows that a large
number of countries will shift to near-permanent extreme conditions even at
global warming levels consistent with the limits of the Paris Agreement.
Given the projected disproportionate frequency increases and decreasing
non-event months across GWLs, our results strongly emphasize the risks of
uncurbed greenhouse gas emissions.
... Climatic conditions influence almost every aspect of human life. Climatic disasters, such as storms, floods, and heat waves, occur more frequently (Jahn, 2015). These disasters cause many deaths and major economic losses (Salvato et al., 2020). ...
... For instance, Hsiang and Narita (2012) indicate that climate events cause major economic losses and reduce economic growth. Jahn (2015) finds that the number of climate events and the associated losses increased significantly worldwide between 1980 and 2012. On the other hand, climate risk and related factors have generated some positive outcomes. ...
Plain English Summary
This study reports that climate risk positively affects EGAs, which suggests that climate risk encourages entrepreneurs to scale up their ventures and generates opportunities for them to do so. Thus, entrepreneurs should proactively leverage climate risk to boost the growth of their ventures. This study also finds that the impact of climate risk on EGAs is stronger for female entrepreneurs. While female entrepreneurs have difficulties to grow their ventures, they can exploit climate risk to realize the objectives. Third, the study finds that the effect of climate risk on EGAs is stronger for non-solo founders than for solo founders, suggesting that entrepreneurs can more effectively respond to climate risk by partnering with others.
... 2013). Aşırı sıcaklık ve kurak koşulların birleşimi tarımsal üretimi ciddi boyutlarda etkilemekte ve mahsul kıtlığı ve orman yangınları gibi sorunlara neden olmaktadır (Jahn 2015). Aşırı sıcak havalar, kurak koşullarla birleştiğinde topluluklar üzerinde ciddi etkilere yol açar. ...
... Kuraklık, bitkisel ve hayvansal üretimi olumsuz etkilemekle birlikte toprağın erozyona uğrama sürecini artırabilir. Yağışlar, özellikle uzun süreli kuru toprak koşullarıyla buluştuğu zaman erozyona bağlı olarak uzun vadede kayıplar yaşanabilir (Jahn 2015). Uzun yıllar devam eden kuraklıklar arazi bozulmasına ve çölleşmeye neden olur. ...
Antropojenik iklim değişikliğinin etkileri olarak, Dünya’nın birçok yerinde sıcak hava dalgalarının ve kuraklığın sıklığı ve şiddeti gün geçtikte artmaktadır. Kuraklık ve sıcak hava dalgaları genellikle birbiriyle bağlantılı afetlerdir. Uzun süreli sıcak hava dalgaları, genellikle kuraklığın oluşmasına ve/veya var olan kuraklığın şiddetinin artırmasına neden olur. Bu afet tipleri özellikle tarımsal üretimde büyük kayıp ve zararlara neden olmaktadır. Bu çalışmada; Dünya’nın farklı bölgelerinde yaşanmış kuraklık ve sıcak hava dalgası afetlerinden örnekler incelenerek, bu afet tiplerinin tarımsal üretime etkileri açıklanmaya çalışılmıştır. Çalışma kapsamında afet raporları, dergiler, kitaplar ve internet haberleri incelenmiştir. Elde edilen verilere göre; bitkisel üretim, hayvansal üretim, doğal kaynak, beşeri sermaye ve ekonominin olumsuz etkilendiği belirlenmiştir. Ekili ürünlerde, özellikle verim ve ürün kaybının yaşandığı görülmüştür. Mera alanlarında taze ot veriminde azalma ve mera alanlarının yok olması gibi durumların yaşandığı belirlenmiştir. Yem bitkilerine yönelik ekili ürünlerde ve mera alanlarında taze otlarda yaşanan kayıplar, yem fiyatlarında artışa ve yem tedarikinde ciddi sorunlara neden olmaktadır. Yem fiyatlarındaki artış ve yem temininde yaşan sorunlar ise hayvansal ürünlerde verim kaybı ve beslenen hayvan sayısının azalmasına neden olmaktadır. Ekonomik olarak ise, fiyat artışı, üretim maliyeti artışı, ihracatta azalma gibi etkilerin yaşandığı belirlenmiştir.
... The effect may also be limited on regional house prices, especially if only a small portion of the area is affected by a disaster. Jahn (2013) argues that there may be negative economic effects of floods and storms on the housing market in the short run but positive in the long run. Thus, the dynamic effects of the impact may be important to analyze. ...
Abstract: This paper examines the impact of natural disasters and water damages on regional housing markets in Norway by utilizing data on insurance claims and housing market indicators at the municipality level. The comprehensive and affordable insurance coverage against natural disasters and high levels of homeownership in Norway make this study especially relevant. To account for many small and large disasters over the sample, I employ local projections estimates, as well as cluster analysis and cointegration analysis, while also controlling for other regional economic indicators. Although the study generally finds limited effects on the housing market, it indicates negative short-term effects from storms and storm surges and negative long-term effects from avalanches. These findings are crucial for risk assessment, given the anticipated increase in the frequency and severity of these events in the future.
