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Comparison of the Bern Model (Green Graph) with the Mauna Loa data (Blue Diamonds). A simulation with reduced emission eA(t) -0.18 ppm/yr is displayed as Green Crosses. Also shown are the original data of anthropogenic emissions eA(t) (Red Squares).

Comparison of the Bern Model (Green Graph) with the Mauna Loa data (Blue Diamonds). A simulation with reduced emission eA(t) -0.18 ppm/yr is displayed as Green Crosses. Also shown are the original data of anthropogenic emissions eA(t) (Red Squares).

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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assumes that the inclining atmospheric CO2 concentration over recent years was almost exclusively determined by anthropogenic emissions, and this increase is made responsible for the rising temperature over the Industrial Era. Due to the far reaching consequences of this assertion, in this contribution...

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Context 1
... compare respective simulations of these approaches with actual observations at Mauna Loa (Keeling et al. [5]; AR5 [1] Chap.6- Fig.6.3, p. 476), and we contrast them with our alternative description of the atmospheric carbon cycle (Harde [6]), which is based on a first order absorption process for the full cycle with only one time scale, the residence time, and additionally including temperature dependent natural variations of the emission and uptake of CO 2 . ...
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... a closer look already reveals some systematic discrepancies, particularly between 1940 and 1970, where the emissions are further increasing, while the temperature stagnates or even slightly decreases. This has to be considered in some more detail, in particular by directly comparing model calculations of the CO 2 increase, based on the fossil fuel emissions and land use change, with the actual observations at Mauna Loa since 1958 (Keeling et al. [5]; AR5 [1] Chap.6- Fig.6.3, p. 476). ...
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... approach also presupposes an equilibrium CO 2 concentration C eq in 1750 of C eq = 280 ppm, and it excludes any further variations in the natural emission rate over the Industrial Era. The calculated atmospheric CO 2 concentration as given by (16) is displayed in Figure 6 (Solid Green). The Bern Model shows the same tendency of too large calculated concentrations as this was already found for the much simpler model of constant airborne fraction (AF Model). ...
Context 4
... to now we were only considering the seasonally averaged CO 2 measurements, but it is also worthwhile to look closer to the monthly data at Mauna Loa (see Keeling et al. [5]; AR5 [1] Chap.6- Fig.6.3, p. 476) as displayed in Figure 9 (Magenta Diamonds). ...
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... the last term in (15) is similar to the decay described by the residence time τ R , the others shall represent the limited uptake by different extraneous reservoirs with different time constants, one also infinite. A simulation with this response function, which is equivalent with a time dependent airborne fraction, reproduces quite well the general trend of the increasing concentration (see Figure 6), but in direct analogy to 3.1 and 3.3 satisfactory agreement with the free-air measurements at Mauna Loa is only obtained when reducing the official anthropogenic emissions and neglecting any additional natural emissions. ...
Context 6
... The observed decrease in atmospheric O 2 content over past two decades and the lower O 2 content in the northern compared to the SH are consistent with the burning of fossil fuels (see Figure 6.3 and Section 6.1.3.2; Keeling et al., 1996;Manning and Keeling, 2006)" . ...
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... this is no supporting argument for a dominantly man-made CO 2 increase, as with our approach we are also expecting such declining 13 CO 2 concentration. The 13 C/ 12 C ratio in the atmosphere or its normalized ‰-difference (δ 13 C) atm is measured at Mauna Loa and at the South Pole atmospheric station (see AR5 [1], Figure 6.3). At Mauna Loa, e.g., it shows an average decrease of 0.7‰ from -7.6‰ in 1980 to -8.3‰ in 2010. ...
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... increase is driven by respiration and decomposition mainly on the Northern Hemisphere (NH) as well as the temperature on the Southern Hemisphere (SH) and also local temperature effects. The (δ 13 C) atm value is just anti-cyclic to the total CO 2 concentration (AR5 [1], Figure 6.3) with a minimum at maximum CO 2 concentration and with seasonal variations of 0.3 -0.4‰, the same order of magnitude as the fossil fuel effect. ...
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... "Most of the fossil fuel CO 2 emissions take place in the industrialised countries north of the equator. Consistent with this, on annual average, atmospheric CO 2 measurement stations in the NH record increasingly higher CO 2 concentrations than stations in the SH, as witnessed by the observations from Mauna Loa, Hawaii, and the South Pole (see Figure 6.3). The annually averaged concentration difference between the two stations has increased in proportion of the estimated increasing difference in fossil fuel combustion emissions between the hemispheres (Figure 6.13;Keeling et al., 1989;Tans et al., 1989;Fan et al., 1999)". ...
Context 10
... there is no doubt that industrial emissions endow their fingerprints in the atmosphere and biosphere (Suess effect). The influence and size of these emissions has already been discussed above, and their different impact on the two hemispheres can be estimated from Figure 6.3c of AR5 [1] indicating a slightly faster decline of (δ 13 C) atm for the NH in agreement with predominantly located industrial emissions in this hemisphere. Even more distinctly this is illustrated by Figure 6.13 of AR5 [1] for the difference in the emission rates between the northern and SH with 8 PgC/yr, which can be observed as a concentration difference between the hemispheres of 3.8 ppm. ...
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... influence and size of these emissions has already been discussed above, and their different impact on the two hemispheres can be estimated from Figure 6.3c of AR5 [1] indicating a slightly faster decline of (δ 13 C) atm for the NH in agreement with predominantly located industrial emissions in this hemisphere. Even more distinctly this is illustrated by Figure 6.13 of AR5 [1] for the difference in the emission rates between the northern and SH with 8 PgC/yr, which can be observed as a concentration difference between the hemispheres of 3.8 ppm. But this is absolutely in no dissent to our result in Section 4 that from globally 4.7 ppm/yr FFE and LUC (average emission over 10 yr) 17 ppm or 4.3 % contribute to the actual CO 2 concentration of 393 ppm (average). ...
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... answer this question we compare the original ∆ 14 CO 2 data of Vermunt and Schauinsland shown in Figure 5, with a hypothetical ∆ 14 CO 2 -distribution, which is found for a fixed δ 13 C-value over the full observation period, thus, assuming no further dilution. This requires first to recalculate the sampling activity A S from (35) and (36) with the known δ 13 C-record, e.g., from Mauna Loa (AR5 [1], Chap6, Figure 6.3c, missing data from 1964-1976 can be extrapolated from this record), and then to simulate the decay curve with new A S activities, which are derived for a constant δ 13 C(1964) = -7.4‰. ...
Context 13
... compare respective simulations of these approaches with actual observations at Mauna Loa (Keeling et al. [5]; AR5 [1] Chap.6- Fig.6.3, p. 476), and we contrast them with our alternative description of the atmospheric carbon cycle (Harde [6]), which is based on a first order absorption process for the full cycle with only one time scale, the residence time, and additionally including temperature dependent natural variations of the emission and uptake of CO 2 . ...
Context 14
... calculated atmospheric CO 2 concentration as given by (16) is displayed in Figure 6 (Solid Green). The Bern Model shows the same tendency of too large calculated concentrations as this was already found for the much simpler model of constant airborne fraction (AF Model). ...
Context 15
... to now we were only considering the seasonally averaged CO 2 measurements, but it is also worthwhile to look closer to the monthly data at Mauna Loa (see Keeling et al. [5]; AR5 [1] Chap.6- Fig.6.3, p. 476) as displayed in Figure 9 (Magenta Diamonds). ...
Context 16
... also this fraction further decreases. So, with an absorption time of τ R0 = 1 yr and a total emission rate of e T = 298 ppm/yr the anthropogenic emissions of 4.7 ppm/yr do not contribute more than 1.6% or 6 ppm to the atmospheric CO 2 . However, for a more conservative assessment and in agreement with the IPCC's estimates (AR5 [1], Chap.6- Fig. 6.1) we further emanate from conditions as derived from the simulations of Figures 8 and 10 with τ R0 = 3 ...
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... the last term in (15) is similar to the decay described by the residence time τ R , the others shall represent the limited uptake by different extraneous reservoirs with different time constants, one also infinite. A simulation with this response function, which is equivalent with a time dependent airborne fraction, reproduces quite well the general trend of the increasing concentration (see Figure 6), but in direct analogy to 3.1 and 3.3 satisfactory agreement with the free-air measurements at Mauna Loa is only obtained when reducing the official anthropogenic emissions and neglecting any additional natural emissions. ...
Context 18
... observed decrease in atmospheric O 2 content over past two decades and the lower O 2 content in the northern compared to the SH are consistent with the burning of fossil fuels (see Figure 6.3 and Section 6.1.3.2; Keeling et al., 1996;Manning and Keeling, 2006)". ...
Context 19
... increase is driven by respiration and decomposition mainly on the Northern Hemisphere (NH) as well as the temperature on the Southern Hemisphere (SH) and also local temperature effects. The (δ 13 C) atm value is just anti-cyclic to the total CO 2 concentration (AR5 [1], Figure 6.3) with a minimum at maximum CO 2 concentration and with seasonal variations of 0.3 -0.4‰, the same order of magnitude as the fossil fuel effect. ...
Context 20
... of the fossil fuel CO 2 emissions take place in the industrialised countries north of the equator. Consistent with this, on annual average, atmospheric CO 2 measurement stations in the NH record increasingly higher CO 2 concentrations than stations in the SH, as witnessed by the observations from Mauna Loa, Hawaii, and the South Pole (see Figure 6.3). The annually averaged concentration difference between the two stations has increased in proportion of the estimated increasing difference in fossil fuel combustion emissions between the hemispheres (Figure 6.13;Keeling et al., 1989;Tans et al., 1989;Fan et al., 1999)". ...
Context 21
... there is no doubt that industrial emissions endow their fingerprints in the atmosphere and biosphere (Suess effect). The influence and size of these emissions has already been discussed above, and their different impact on the two hemispheres can be estimated from Figure 6.3c of AR5 [1] indicating a slightly faster decline of (δ 13 C) atm for the NH in agreement with predominantly located industrial emissions in this hemisphere. Even more distinctly this is illustrated by Figure 6.13 of AR5 [1] for the difference in the emission rates between the northern and SH with 8 PgC/yr, which can be observed as a concentration difference between the hemispheres of 3.8 ppm. ...
Context 22
... influence and size of these emissions has already been discussed above, and their different impact on the two hemispheres can be estimated from Figure 6.3c of AR5 [1] indicating a slightly faster decline of (δ 13 C) atm for the NH in agreement with predominantly located industrial emissions in this hemisphere. Even more distinctly this is illustrated by Figure 6.13 of AR5 [1] for the difference in the emission rates between the northern and SH with 8 PgC/yr, which can be observed as a concentration difference between the hemispheres of 3.8 ppm. But this is absolutely in no dissent to our result in Section 4 that from globally 4.7 ppm/yr FFE and LUC (average emission over 10 yr) 17 ppm or 4.3 % contribute to the actual CO 2 concentration of 393 ppm (average). ...
Context 23
... answer this question we compare the original ∆ 14 CO 2 data of Vermunt and Schauinsland shown in Figure 5, with a hypothetical ∆ 14 CO 2 -distribution, which is found for a fixed δ 13 C-value over the full observation period, thus, assuming no further dilution. This requires first to recalculate the sampling activity A S from (35) and (36) with the known δ 13 C-record, e.g., from Mauna Loa (AR5 [1], Chap6, Figure 6.3c, missing data from 1964-1976 can be extrapolated from this record), and then to simulate the decay curve with new A S activities, which are derived for a constant δ 13 C(1964) = -7.4‰. ...

Citations

... Notably, the more research explores the past, the more the anthropogenic thesis is weakened. Davis (2017) and Harde (2019) found that changes in the atmospheric CO2 concentration did not cause changes in ancient climate temperature. They also found that climate change was not related to the carbon cycle but to native impacts. ...
Article
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This paper projects a climate change scenario using a stochastic paleotemperature time series model and compares it to the prevailing consensus using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Process Model (ARIMA). The parameter estimates of the model were below that established by the anthropogenic experts and governmental organs, such as the IPCC (UN) over a 100-year scenario. Results from the ARIMA model suggest a current period of temperature reduction and a probable cooling. The results from this study add a statistical element of paleoclimate to the debate that contradicts the current scientific consensus.
... What is noticeable is that the more research explores the past, the more the anthropogenic thesis is weakened, as demonstrated by Davis (2017) and Harde (2019) by finding that changes in the atmospheric CO2 concentration did not cause changes in ancient climate temperature and climate change is not related to the carbon cycle, but rather to native impacts. Easterbrook (2016), in his evidence-based book brought data opposing CO2 emissions as the primary source of global warming, the thesis of which has been captured by politics and dubious computer modeling. ...
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Global warming has divided the scientific community worldwide with predominance for anthropogenic alarmism. This article aims to project a climate change scenario using a stochastic model of paleotemperature time series and compare it with the dominant thesis. The ARIMA model, an integrated autoregressive process of moving averages, popularly known as Box-Jenkins, was used for this purpose. The results showed that the estimates of the model parameters were below 1 degree Celsius for a scenario of 100 years which suggests a period of temperature reduction and a probable cooling, contrary to the prediction of the IPCC and the anthropogenic current of an increase in 1,50 degree to 2,0 degree Celsius by the end of this century. Thus, we hope with this study to contribute to the discussion by adding a statistical element of paleoclimate in counterpoint to the current consensus and to placing the debate in a long term historical dimension, in line with other research already present in the scientific literature.
... The annual changes in atmospheric concentrations show quite a lot of variability from year-toyear, which is not apparent from the annual anthropogenic emissions, and the airborne fraction actually varies quite a bit from year-to-year, as has been noted by others (e.g., refs. [74][75][76][77][78][79][80][81][82]). This suggests that natural variability actually plays quite a substantial role in atmospheric CO2 concentration trends. ...
... Moreover, if it were to transpire that all (or even most) of the recent increase in atmospheric CO2 were a natural phenomenon, then this would completely undermine the entire basis for claiming that society's CO2 emissions are causing "human-caused global warming". Therefore, whenever a researcher publishes an analysis suggesting that some or all of the recent increase could be natural in origin, such as the references cited above [76,[78][79][80][81][82] and also refs. [74,75,77,[83][84][85][86][87][88][89], their arguments are attacked with a particular vehemence, e.g., [90][91][92][93][94][95][96][97][98][99]. ...
... For this reason, several researchers have argued that some component of the observed increase in atmospheric CO2 since 1959 could be a result of a natural global warming trend (i.e., the opposite of the human-caused global warming theory), e.g., refs. [16,17,74,75,77,[79][80][81]85,113]. Importantly, this paradigm does not rule out a contribution from anthropogenic emissions in the recent increase-rather, anthropogenic emissions are treated as an additional source that needs to be taken into account. ...
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In order to assess the merits of national climate change mitigation policies, it is important to have a reasonable benchmark for how much human-caused global warming would occur over the coming century with "Business-As-Usual" (BAU) conditions. However, currently, policymakers are limited to making assessments by comparing the Global Climate Model (GCM) projections of future climate change under various different "scenarios", none of which are explicitly defined as BAU. Moreover, all of these estimates are ab initio computer model projections, and policymakers do not currently have equivalent empirically derived estimates for comparison. Therefore, estimates of the total future human-caused global warming from the three main greenhouse gases of concern (CO2, CH4, and N2O) up to 2100 are here derived for BAU conditions. A semi-empirical approach is used that allows direct comparisons between GCM-based estimates and empirically derived estimates. If the climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases implies a Transient Climate Response (TCR) of ≥ 2.5 °C or an Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) of ≥ 5.0 °C then the 2015 Paris Agreement's target of keeping human-caused global warming below 2.0 °C will have been broken by the middle of the century under BAU. However, for a TCR < 1.5 °C or ECS < 2.0 °C, the target would not be broken under BAU until the 22nd century or later. Therefore, the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) "likely" range estimates for TCR of 1.0 to 2.5 °C and ECS of 1.5 to 4.5 °C have not yet established if human-caused global warming is a 21st century problem.
... A broad consensus of both climate scientists and the public accepts that human activities such as burning fossil fuels are responsible for the worrisome increase in atmospheric CO 2 over the last century. Nonetheless a few continue to argue that the increase is "natural" and outside of human control [1][2][3][4]. While extensive rebuttals of these arguments have been made elsewhere [5,6], the common motivating factor for the maverick papers appears not to have been identified before now: all make the same mistake in interpreting 14 C data collected and presented by others. ...
... Essenhigh [1], Harde [2,3], and Berry [4] took the isotope ratio curve shown in Figure 1 to be the 14 C concentration curve, which is correctly shown in Figure 2. Essenhigh labels an axis " 14 C concentration" for a plot that is clearly of ∆ 14 C. Harde and Berry label their axes correctly but misinterpret the meaning and have asserted wrongly that ∆ 14 C is equivalent to concentration (personal communications). Looking at plots similar to Figure 1, the three authors erroneously concluded that after atmospheric nuclear testing ceased, the "pulse" of extra 14C introduced by the tests exponentially disappeared from the atmosphere with a time constant of approximately 16 years. ...
... The analysis predicts that ∆ 14 C ultimately will again go negative from the Suess effect, even as the 14 C concentration continues to rise. Note that the idea that 14 C is now being "pushed" from the oceans to make room for new anthropogenic 12 C is quite different from the idea that the overall increase in atmospheric CO 2 is due to ocean outgassing due to temperature increases from an unspecified cause [2,3]. In the latter hypothesis, a decrease in ocean carbon would be expected, which is not seen. ...
... Authors who support the USGCRP [1] and IPCC [2,3] include Archer et al. [4], Cawley [5], Kern and Leuenberger [6], and Kohler [7]. Authors who conclude human CO 2 increases atmospheric CO 2 as a percentage of its inflow include Revelle and Suess [8], Starr [9], Segalstad [10], Jaworoski [11,12], Beck [13], Rorsch, Courtney, and Thoenes [14], Courtney [15], Quirk [16], Essenhigh [17], Glassman [18], Salby [19][20][21][22], Humlum [23], Harde [24,25], and Berry [26,27]. ...
... Equation (12) shows the percentage of human-produced CO 2 in the atmosphere equals its percentage of its inflow, independent of e-time. Equations (9) and (10) support the key conclusions of Harde [24,25]: ...
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The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) agrees human CO 2 is only 5 percent and natural CO 2 is 95 percent of the CO 2 inflow into the atmosphere. The ratio of human to natural CO 2 in the atmosphere must equal the ratio of the inflows. Yet IPCC claims human CO 2 has caused all the rise in atmospheric CO 2 above 280 ppm, which is now 130 ppm or 32 percent of today's atmospheric CO 2. To cause the human 5 percent to become 32 percent in the atmosphere, the IPCC model treats human and natural CO 2 differently, which is impossible because the molecules are identical. IPCC's Bern model artificially traps human CO 2 in the atmosphere while it lets natural CO 2 flow freely out of the atmosphere. By contrast, a simple Physics Model treats all CO 2 molecules the same, as it should, and shows how CO 2 flows through the atmosphere and produces a balance level where outflow equals inflow. Thereafter, if inflow is constant, level remains constant. The Physics Model has only one hypothesis, that outflow is proportional to level. The Physics Model exactly replicates the 14C data from 1970 to 2014 with only two physical parameters: balance level and e-time. The 14C data trace how CO 2 flows out of the atmosphere. The Physics Model shows the 14 CO 2 e-time is a constant 16.5 years. Other data show e-time for 12CO 2 is about 4 to 5 years. IPCC claims human CO 2 reduces ocean buffer capacity. But that would increase e-time. The constant e-time proves IPCC's claim is false. IPCC argues that the human-caused reduction of 14C and 13C in the atmosphere prove human CO 2 causes all the increase in atmospheric CO 2. However, numbers show these isotope data support the Physics Model and reject the IPCC model. The Physics Model shows how inflows of human and natural CO 2 into the atmosphere set balance levels proportional to their inflows. Each balance level remains constant if its inflow remains constant. Continued constant CO 2 emissions do not add more CO 2 to the atmosphere. No CO 2 accumulates in the atmosphere. Present human CO 2 inflow produces a balance level of about 18 ppm. Present natural CO 2 inflow produces a balance level of about 392 ppm. Human CO 2 is insignificant to the increase of CO 2 in the atmosphere. Increased natural CO 2 inflow has increased the level of CO 2 in the atmosphere.
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A basic assumption of climate change made by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is natural CO2 stayed constant after 1750 and human CO2 dominated the CO2 increase. IPCC's basic assumption requires human CO2 to stay in the atmosphere longer than natural CO2. But human CO2 and natural CO2 molecules are identical. So, human CO2 and natural CO2 must flow out of the atmosphere at the same rate, or e-time. The 14 CO2 e-time, derived from δ 14 C data, is 10.0 years, making the 12 CO2 e-time less than 10 years. The IPCC says the 12 CO2 e-time is about 4 years and IPCC's carbon cycle uses 3.5 years. A new physics carbon cycle model replicates IPCC's natural carbon cycle. Then, using IPCC's natural carbon cycle data, it calculates human carbon has added only 33 [24-48] ppmv to the atmosphere as of 2020, which means natural carbon has added 100 ppmv. The physics model calculates if human CO2 emissions had stopped at the end of 2020, the human CO2 level of 33 ppmv would fall to 10 ppmv in 2100. After the bomb tests, δ 14 C returned to its original balance level of zero even as 12 CO2 increased, which suggests a natural source dominates the 12 CO2 increase.