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The development and dissemination of weather and climate information is crucial to improve people’s resilience and adaptability to climate variability and change. The impacts of climate variability and change are generally stronger for disadvantaged population groups due to their limited adaptive and coping capacities. For instance,
smallholder fa...
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... training courses to the South American region through the Regional Training Center (RTC). Further, the awareness of the specific climate related problems and possible adaptation strategies in the Andean region was raised through sharing lessons learnt and key results of the Climandes project with selected key stakeholders at the regional scale (Fig. 2). This is particularly important, as there is a lack of adequate communication on experiences in the codesign and co-production of climate services outside the WMO community: "Many users and implementers seek more success stories and lessons learned that help provide the proper rationale and guidance for climate service activities. ...
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Unprecedented global climate change caused by human actions is becoming a challenge to agricultural systems’ ability to meet and sustain production demands for food and raw materials for the increasing world population. Climate change has not spared the district, resulting in extreme weather events such as droughts, erratic rainfalls and increasing...
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... It evaluated and relocated existing stations and identified new suitable sites, selecting 100 polygons in 11 distributions [23]. Developing and disseminating climate information is vital to improve climate change adaptability, especially for Peruvian Andes farmers [24]. Therefore, in the present case, after comparing different agricultural locations in the city of Lima, it could be deduced that a good place to test the prototype to be created would be in the area of Carabayllo. ...
In the agricultural sector, monitoring environmental variables such as temperature, humidity, and atmospheric pressure is crucial for efficient and sustainable agriculture. However, conventional monitoring systems are expensive and need more autonomy, making their implementation difficult in small- and medium-scale agricultural operations. This study presents the design, implementation, and evaluation Internet of things (IoT)-based autonomous for watch remote critical climate variables in the Carabayllo region, Peru. The system uses a data acquisition, processing, and transmission architecture based on the ESP32 microcontroller, DHT22 sensors for measure climatic aspects, BMP180 for detection barometric, and the ThingSpeak cloud platform for data storage and visualization. Results show that the proposed system achieves accuracy comparable to commercial weather stations, making it accessible to small farmers. The implementation demonstrated the system’s ability to detect feasible local microclimates to monitor and predict weather patterns for proper crop growth. This approach enables farmers to monitor conditions in real time, receive early alerts on adverse weather events, and optimize agricultural practices such as irrigation and fertilization. The study concludes that the proposed IoT weather station represents a viable and cost-effective solution to improve agricultural decision-making in developing regions, potentially contributing to increasing crops.
... Evaluating climate data for Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia is difficult because of different interpolation methods, different periods for baselines, the selection of different global circulation models for climate change studies, and the lack of meteorological stations in their territories. The National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia have few meteorological and hydrological stations in high-altitude areas as well as in Amazonian areas [25][26][27]. ...
Climate change is a global concern, and its impact on environmental variables such as temperature and annual precipitation is unknown spatially in the desert, andes, and rainforest ecoregions of Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia. In this study, we conducted a general review of climate drivers for South America (SA) and explored climate data using the GCM compareR package (General Circulation Models) and average ensembles for temperature and precipitation. Our results showed that all GCMs demonstrated increases in the annual mean temperature (BIO1) and in the mean temperature of the driest quarter (BIO9) for Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia for 2050 in three RCPs (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5). Also, most of the GCMs showed increases in the annual precipitation (BIO12) and the precipitation in the driest quarter (BIO17). We conducted non-parametric tests (Kruskal-Wallis Test) to assess if the medians of temperature and precipitation in the three ecoregions are equal for both the baseline and the climate change scenarios. We rejected the null hypothesis that the medians are equal for both temperatures and precipitation in the baseline vs. 2050 RCPs (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5). A spatial analysis was conducted to visualize the variations in temperature and precipitation between the RCPs versus the baseline, and the spatial variation at the country or ecoregion level can be observed. The annual mean temperature (°C) or annual precipitation (mm) divided by its standard deviation for each ecoregion (M metric) was analyzed to see how much the average temperature or the annual precipitation is relatively large compared to the variability or dispersion of temperatures or precipitation respectively; the average temperature and the annual precipitation for the baseline and the three RCPs are relatively large and associated with the variability or dispersion of their temperatures in the Napo moist forest compared to the other ecoregions. Our study provides important insights into the potential impacts of climate change on these ecosystems. Prospects in the Napo moist forest ecoregion, where significant changes in temperature and humidity have already occurred, and new species have invaded or evolved in the western Amazon rainforest, are particularly highlighted and reflected in terms of risk mitigation, ecosystem restoration, surveillance, and monitoring.
... Their findings highlight the importance of government collaboration with stakeholders to account for external factors and stakeholder preferences in developing resilient policies. Gubler et al. [26] provided an example of successful governance and institutional participation through the Climandes project in Peru. This initiative demonstrated how collaboration between national meteorological services and international entities can improve climate services for smallholder farmers, illustrating the critical role of government agencies in strengthening institutional capacity and delivering actionable solutions. ...
The purpose of this research is to develop an advanced model to serve as a strategic tool for the Thailand government in managing the country and to propose ways for the government to exercise state power through proactive measures to address governance gaps and ensure long-term sustainability. This research employs a mixed-methods approach. The research methodology involved the following stages: (1) Quantitative research was conducted by creating the best model, which involved conducting path analysis based on an autoregressive integrated moving average with an exogenous variable model (PAARIMAX (1,1,1)). (2) The results of the quantitative research were optimized to facilitate additional qualitative research in order to identify appropriate ways of using state power for long-term sustainability in country management. The study’s findings suggest that the government will need to exercise its state power in the governance of the country through the development of a long-term national management plan (2024–2043). This plan involves the establishment of a new scenario policy wherein a minimum of 35% clean technology and green materials must be utilized within the economic sector. This is primarily due to their significant impact on environmental change. Furthermore, the government should exercise its state power to mandate an immediate reduction in energy consumption of 50%, achieved through the immediate adoption of renewable energy sources. This research utilized the results derived from the PAARIMAX model to conduct further qualitative analysis to fill the gaps, enhance the value of the quantitative research, and align it more effectively with the context of practical application. The study found that the proactive measures suggested by stakeholders must be implemented alongside the urgent establishment of new scenario policies, including for charges and taxes, subsidies and concession taxes, deposit refund systems, and property rights and market creation.
... Wang et al., 2022;Zhao et al., 2021). There are solid reasons to provide farmers with timely and effective climate information under climate-changing conditions to ensure their adaptative response (Gubler et al., 2020) in the Mantaro Valley against drought events. Location, where farmers still practice rain-fed cropping systems and are already affected by poverty (Sanabria et al., 2014). ...
Agricultural drought is a serious threat for those locations where one of the most important economic activities is crop production, which occurrence has been rising due to climate change. In addition, different kinds of phenomena could exacerbate agricultural drought frequency, duration, and severity. For example, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which mostly occurs in the tropical western and central pacific, directly affects the Peruvian territory. This study aims to understand ENSO's influence on agricultural drought in the Mantaro Valley, Peru since it is one of the most important agricultural lands in the country without clear scientific information linked to drought and ENSO events. For drought assessment using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration (SPEI) index and for ENSO events through a documentary and numerical analysis under Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) with information from several scientific recent papers to integrate information and formulate a clear event influence understanding. The results show that within Mantaro Valley along its four provinces and their six meteorological stations, 70% of agricultural drought events occurred when ENSO was present between 1990-2021. Also, the severity straight correlation percentage between both, ENSO and SPEI events is quite variable between 9.09%-70%. It is important to keep analyzing those stations with few data since it can provide a new scenario deportment and track new ENSO forecasting methods to rise adaptive capacity and guarantee national and international food security which has as an important supplier to the Mantaro Valley, Peru.
... For calculation of the indices and their trends, the ClimIndVis R package is used. This package has been designed for the calculation and visualization of different climate indices within the CLIMANDES project (Gubler, Rossa, et al., 2020) and is freely available on GitHub (www.github.com/Climandes/ClimIndVis). ...
The rainy season is of high importance for livelihoods in the Southern Peruvian Andes (SPA), especially for agriculture, which is mainly rain fed and one of the main income sources in the region. Therefore, knowledge and predictions of the rainy season such as its onset and ending are crucial for planning purposes. However, such information is currently not readily available for the local population. Moreover, an evaluation of existing rainy season indices shows that they are not optimally suited for the SPA and may not be directly applicable in a forecasting context. Therefore, we develop a new index, named Climandes index, which is tailored to the SPA and designed to be of use for operational monitoring and forecasting purposes. Using this index, we analyse the climatology and trends of the rainy season in the SPA. We find that the rainy season starts roughly between September and January with durations between 3 and 8 months. Both onset and duration show a pronounced northeast‐southwest gradient, regions closer to the Amazon Basin have a considerably longer rainy season. The inter‐annual variability of the onset is very high, that is, 2–5 months depending on the station, while the end of the rainy season shows a much lower variability (i.e., 1.5–3 months). The spatial patterns of total precipitation amount and dry spells within the rainy season are only weakly related to its timing. Trends in rainy season characteristics since 1965 are mostly weak and not significant, but generally indicate a tendency towards a shortening of the rainy season in the whole study area due to a later onset and an increase in precipitation sums during the rainy season in the northwestern study area.
... As such, Climandes can be considered an innovative example of how to transform the GFCS into practical solutions at the local level and hence improve the resilience of agricultural communities in the Peruvian highlands. Climandes was performed in two phases periods 2012-2015 (Rosas et al. 2016) and 2016-2019 (Gubler et al. 2020), respectively. ...
Experiences from the disastrous 2016 El Niño revealed that its forecast, although available, was not known, accessed or understood by a large part of agricultural communities living in remote rural areas. This is all the more striking since these population groups are particularly vulnerable to adverse climate events as their livelihoods heavily depend on climate-sensitive agricultural production. In the framework of Climandes, a twinning project between the meteorological services of Peru and Switzerland, we implemented and evaluated the impact of community-based climate services that were co-developed with the target smallholder communities of the semi-arid highlands of the southern Peruvian Andes, where small-scale farmers are especially exposed to adverse climate events due to high inter-annual climate variability and weak socioeconomic capacities. In this chapter we analyse the project implementation through a socioeconomic lens. Research results generated alongside the project indicate that the well-directed user engagement resulted in a strong increase of trust in the weather service SENAMHI Peru and led to improved consideration of the information provided in the respective decision-making processes. We highlight the key steps that proved to be indispensable for the implementation of meaningful and sustainable climate services. The project outcomes point to the great and widely untapped potential of community-based climate services to reduce vulnerability and strengthen resilience of smallholder farmers in the face of changing climate conditions. A. Rossa (B) · M. Flubacher
... As such, Climandes can be considered an innovative example of how to transform the GFCS into practical solutions at the local level and hence improve the resilience of agricultural communities in the Peruvian highlands. Climandes was performed in two phases periods 2012-2015 (Rosas et al. 2016) and 2016-2019 (Gubler et al. 2020), respectively. ...
This book explores climate services, including projections, descriptive information, analyses, assessments, and an overview of current trends.
Due to the pressures now being put on the world’s climate, it is vital to gather and share reliable climate observation and projection data, which may be tailored for use by different groups. In other words, it is essential to offer climate services. But despite the growth in the use of these services, there are very few specialist publications on this topic. This book addresses that need.
Apart from presenting studies and the results of research projects, the book also offers an overview of the wide range of means available for providing and using climate services. In addition, it features case studies that provide illustrative and inspiring examples of how climate services can be optimally deployed.
Case study author Del Piero R. Arana Ruedas. This paper presents a proposed study design for a Spatio-temporal drought assessment using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Adaptation over Mantaro Valley, Peru. An in-depth literature review is undertaken followed by a description of the types of data that will be used to undertake a risk assessment analysis with proposed objective to create a risk assessment at multiple time intervals for Mantaro Valley. Arana proposes that the results be analyzed and used as a source of insights and needed changes to the current Peruvian National Adaption Plan (NAP). In addition, the Regional Adaptation Plan, where the Mantaro Valley is located will be contrasted with the drought risk assessment result to understand its effectiveness to finally provide adaptation strategies evaluated throughout social, economic, and environmental criteria.
Climate change is affecting the planet due to lack of information regarding its temperatures, precipitation and decrease in the surface area of the snow-capped mountains, which causes a high impact on the melting of the snow-capped mountains, for this reason it is important to have predictive models of multivariate regressions that allow forecasting the surface area of snow-capped mountains over time. In the investigation, the multivariate regression model was used for each snowfall under study, having as regressive variables the temperature, precipitation and as a dependent variable the surface area of the snowfall with data obtained through Landsat 4–5, 7 and 8 images during the years 2010–2020. A model of the snow-capped Huaytapallana was obtained in the form y = 34.274 − 2.3197 + 0.135 with p-value = 0.034 of significance and the snow-capped Coropuna with a model of the shape y = 101.3487− 6.720 + 0.331 having p-value = 0.036 being significant for your prediction. The mean of the highest surface area was Coropuna (53.92 km2) with a SD of 14.94, and the lowest was Verónica (16.16 km2) with a SD of 37.77. The Huaytapallana mountain showed the least reduction in surface area, decreasing by 7%, while the Verónica mountain was reduced by 52%, being the most affected of the 4 snow-capped mountains, due to the melting under study during the 10 years of data analyzed.KeywordsMultiple regressionClimate variabilityGlacier retreatLandsat imagesPeruvian glaciers
