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Coastal area of Pakistan, which comprises of mountainous Makran region, plains of southern Sind and axial fold belts lying in between. Main active faults are also shown 1.1 The Makran coastal area The Makran region of Pakistan forms a part of the Baluchistan basin south of the Kharan desert. The Makran continental margin displays the best exposed arch-trench gap forming the seaward part of folded and faulted accretionary sediment prism and fore-arc basin resulted from active northward subduction of oceanic portion of the Arabian plate beneath the Lut and Afghan blocks of southern margins of Eurasia (Figure 1, 2). It extends several hundred kilometers inland across the onshore Makran (Hunting Survey Corporation, 1961; Raza, Bannert, 1995). 1.2 Axial fold belts The north-south trending fold belts lie between the mostly east-west trending mountains of the Makran region in the west and alluvial plains of the Sind in the east. These were formed during the collision process when the Indian plate underwent basement segmentation. It is a mountainous region with altitude exceeding 3 000 m. It constitutes mainly the left-lateral strike-slip faults of Omach-Nal-Pub fault system extending up to Chaman, north of Quetta. 1.3 The alluvial plains of Sindh The southern Sindh, east of the north-south divider comprises mainly plains formed by delta of river Indus. The plains are devoid of any major relief and are essentially a broad, shallow basin bordered on the east by the low hills of peninsular India and on the west by the ranges of Baluchis
Source publication
Estimation of seismic hazard for the fast developing coastal area of Pakistan is carried out using deterministic and probabilistic
approaches. On the basis of seismotectonics and geology, eleven faults are recognized in five seismic provinces as potential
hazard sources. Maximum magnitude potential for each of these sources is calculated. Peak grou...
Contexts in source publication
Context 1
... area of Pakistan ( Figure 1) comprises mountainous Makran region in the west and plains of southern Sindh in the east. In between, as a divider, lies the north-south trending axial fold belt. ...
Context 2
... geology of the area (Bakr, Jackson, 1964) shows that the rocks exposed in the region are generally of sedimentary origin with the exception of Lasbela ophiolite belt in eastern Baluchistan and Pre-Cambrian granites outcrop- ping in eastern Sindh in Nagar Parkar area. The three regions are shown in Figure 1 and briefly described below. The Makran region of Pakistan forms a part of the Baluchistan basin south of the Kharan de- sert. ...
Context 3
... Makran region of Pakistan forms a part of the Baluchistan basin south of the Kharan de- sert. The Makran continental margin displays the best exposed arch-trench gap forming the sea- ward part of folded and faulted accretionary sediment prism and fore-arc basin resulted from ac- tive northward subduction of oceanic portion of the Arabian plate beneath the Lut and Afghan blocks of southern margins of Eurasia (Figure 1, 2). It extends several hundred kilometers inland across the onshore Makran (Hunting Survey Corporation, 1961;Raza, Bannert, 1995). ...
Context 4
... Rann of Kutch basin is the extreme southeastern coast of Pakistan bordering India, which is a region of salt impregnated silt almost at the sea level with many deep intruding creeks from Arabian Sea (Figure 1). ...
Context 5
... areas of Pakistan, as mentioned above, contain a number of fast developing urban centers (Figure 1). To establish design criteria for the construction of massive structures in the area and to mitigate the threat to already constructed non-engineered structures that can cause hu- man and monetary losses in case of a large earthquake, it is important to evaluate the earthquake hazard potential of the region. ...
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... The recent one was the 6.3 MW Pasni Earthquake on 7th February 2017, followed by a 5.2 MW aftershock on 8th February 2017. This location is Pakistan's high seismic risk area, with an acceleration value of 0.12 g [47]. ...
... The recent one was the 6.3 MW Pasni Earthquake on 7th February 2017, followed by a 5.2 MW aftershock on 8th February 2017. This location is Pakistan's high seismic risk area, with an acceleration value of 0.12 g [47]. ...
... The recent one was the 6.3 MW Pasni Earthquake on 7th February 2017, followed by a 5.2 MW aftershock on 8th February 2017. This location is Pakistan's high seismic risk area, with an acceleration value of 0.12 g [47]. ...
Land subsidence is considered a threat to developing cities and is triggered by several natural (geological and seismic) and human (mining, groundwater withdrawal, oil and gas extraction, constructions) factors. This research has gathered datasets consisting of 80 Sentinel-1A ascending and descending SLC images from July 2017 to July 2019. This dataset, concerning InSAR and PS-InSAR, is processed with SARPROZ software to determine the land subsidence in Gwadar City, Balochistan, Pakistan. Later, the maps were created with ArcGIS 10.8. Due to InSAR's limitations in measuring millimeter-scale surface deformation, Multi-Temporal InSAR techniques, like PS-InSAR, are introduced to provide better accuracy, consistency, and fewer errors of deformation analysis. This remote-based SAR technique is helpful in the Gwadar area; for researchers, city mobility is constrained and has become more restricted post-Covid-19. This technique requires multiple images acquired of the same place at different times for estimating surface deformation per year, along with surface uplifting and subsidence. The InSAR results showed maximum deformation in the Koh-i-Mehdi Mountain from 2017 to 2019. The PS-InSAR results showed subsidence up to -92 mm/year in ascending track and -66 mm/year in descending track in the area of Koh-i-Mehdi Mountain, and up to -48 mm/year in ascending track and -32 mm/year in descending track in the area of the deep seaport. From our experimental results, a high subsidence rate has been found in the newly evolving Gwadar City. This city is very beneficial to the country's economic development because of its deep-sea port, developed by the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The research is associated with a detailed analysis of Gwadar City, identifying the areas with significant subsidence, and enlisting the possible causes that are needed to be resolved before further developments. Our findings are helpful to urban development and disaster monitoring as the city is being promoted as the next significant deep seaport with the start of CPEC.
... Most of the studies interpret this fault as an extension of the Chaman Fault because of its resemblance in several ways i.e. both faults mark the boundary (between Indian and Eurasian plates) and cut across the trend of fold axes in adjacent terrains (Frohling & Szeliga, 2016). Recurrence timespan of 500 years along the ONF zone for a magnitude 7.8 earthquake was proposed on the basis of similarity and continuity with Chaman Fault Zone (Frohling & Szeliga, 2016;Khan et al., 2003). High value of seismic hazard has been proposed for this fault zone due to alluvial deposits in the vicinity (Bilham et al., 2007;Waseem et al., 2019). ...
Moment tensor inversion was performed for earthquake of moderate magnitude occurring in May 2022 near Khuzdar, Pakistan. According to local news agencies, the event caused damages to engineered structures and collapse of several mud houses. Faulting style depicted from inversion implies that the event may be associated with Ornach-Nal strike-slip fault which is part of western boundary of Indian plate. To understand the tectonic setting of the area, the present study was augmented by inclusion of results from similar studies. Principal stress axis (SHmax) was determined by performing stress inversion. Based on 38 events focal mechanism solutions from the global Harvard Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) of the Khuzdar region depict NW–SE orientation of SHmax direction. On the basis of their stress homogeneity, reduced stress tensors obtained from formal stress inversion have been divided into two subsets resulting in thrust and strike-slip faulting. The present-day stress state conforms to the oblique convergence of Indian and Arabian plates beneath Eurasian. Shear strain produced by strike-slip movement of plate boundary (Chaman fault system) is being accommodated in Kirthar range within the Indian plate. Before this event, a lower b-value (0.7) and accelerated earthquake sequence were observed in the Khuzdar region, which is (in our view evidence of presence of stress loaded asperities along this fault system) representation of stress loaded asperities exist. The spatial distribution of b-value depicts the lowest value in this region before the occurrence of Awaran earthquake of 2013 that took place about 70 km west of the recent event.
... The recent one was the 6.3 MW Pasni Earthquake on 7th February 2017, followed by a 5.2 MW aftershock on 8th February 2017. This location is Pakistan's high seismic risk area, with an acceleration value of 0.12 g [47]. ...
Land subsidence is considered a threat to developing cities and is triggered by several natural (geological and seismic) and human (mining, groundwater withdrawal, oil and gas extraction, constructions) factors. This research has gathered datasets consisting of 80 Sentinel-1A ascending and descending SLC images from July 2017 to July 2019. This dataset, concerning InSAR and PS-InSAR, is processed with SARPROZ software to determine the land subsidence in Gwadar City, Balochistan, Pakistan. Later, the maps were created with ArcGIS 10.8. Due to InSAR's limitations in measuring millimeter-scale surface deformation, Multi-Temporal InSAR techniques, like PS-InSAR, are introduced to provide better accuracy, consistency, and fewer errors of deformation analysis. This remote-based SAR technique is helpful in the Gwadar area; for researchers, city mobility is constrained and has become more restricted post-Covid-19. This technique requires multiple images acquired of the same place at different times for estimating surface deformation per year, along with surface uplifting and subsidence. The InSAR results showed maximum deformation in the Koh-i-Mehdi Mountain from 2017 to 2019. The PS-InSAR results showed subsidence up to −92 mm/year in ascending track and −66 mm/year in descending track in the area of Koh-i-Mehdi Mountain, and up to −48 mm/year in ascending track and −32 mm/year in descending track in the area of the deep seaport. From our experimental results , a high subsidence rate has been found in the newly evolving Gwadar City. This city is very beneficial to the country's economic development because of its deep-sea port, developed by the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The research is associated with a detailed analysis of Gwadar City, identifying the areas with significant subsidence, and enlisting the possible causes that are needed to be resolved before further developments. Our findings are helpful to urban development and disaster monitoring as the city is being promoted as the next significant deep seaport with the start of CPEC.
... Multidisciplinary and multiproxy approaches improve hazard and risk assessment (Koshimura et al., 2014;De Martini et al., 2021;Röbke et al., 2015Röbke et al., , 2016Röbke et al., , 2018. Regarding integrated analysis, the Makran Coast probabilistic and deterministic approaches are integrated for hazard and risk assessment by (Khan et al., 2003a(Khan et al., , 2003bSalmanidou et al., 2019;Rashidi et al., 2020;Yang et al., 2022). Here, we compiled and integrated five different approaches (geophysical, sedimentological-geomorphic, probabilistic modelling, numerical modelling and historical record), which we called a synergic approach for hazard assessment. ...
... Multidisciplinary and multiproxy approaches improve hazard and risk assessment (Koshimura et al., 2014;De Martini et al., 2021;Röbke et al., 2013, Röbke et al., 2015. At the Makran Coast, PTHA and DTHA are used together by (Khan et al., 2003a(Khan et al., , 2003bEl-Hussain et al., 2018;Salmanidou et al., 2019;Yang et al., 2022;Zafarani et al., 2022). We compiled and integrated five different approaches (geophysical, PTHA, DTHA, sedimentary tsunami deposits, and historical record), which we called a synergic approach for hazard and risk assessment. ...
... The probable PGA value of 1.0 with a return period of 2500 years capable of generating a Mw 8.0 earthquake (Ahmed et al., 2019;Waseem et al., 2019Waseem et al., , 2020 is in close agreement with the Zafarani et al. (2022) model. The results of Khan et al. (2003aKhan et al. ( , 2003b are entirely different as they calculated the recurrence interval for this much intensity as 70 years, as the well-known historical record of the last 300 years does not account for such an interval. ...
Tsunamis and cyclones are sea-borne hazards capable of inundating vast coastal areas. This study aims at an
extreme wave hazard assessment with a preliminary inundation analysis along the Makran Coast, Pakistan. The
coastal hazard, particularly tsunamis, is evaluated by integrating five approaches: (i) probabilistic tsunami
hazard assessment (PTHA); (ii) deterministic tsunami hazard assessment (DTHA); (iii) geophysical-seismic (2-D
thermal modelling), (iv) sedimentary tsunami deposits (tsunamis); and (v) the historical record. The recurrence
interval for a mega-tsunami event (≥12 m) is between 500 and 1000 years in the Arabian Sea. Of these megatsunamis, about 60% are generated by seismic sources, while the remaining 40% are attributed to secondary (coseismic submarine landslides) and other non-seismic sources. Based on the above five approaches, the hazard
analysis helped to shortlist four wave scenarios (3, 7, 10, and 15 m). Which were further used to demarcate risk
areas through static inundation analysis. The results indicated that the damage potential at the coast is minor to
negligible with 3 m waves and moderate with 7 m waves. Whereas the 10 m and 15 m waves will severely disrupt
the study area. In addition to tsunami risk, cyclone risk is assessed by interpolating storm tracks dating back to
1842 CE. In the last 64 years, cyclone frequency has jumped from 1 cyclone per 10 years to 20 cyclones per 10
years, and the intensity has increased by two levels from Tropical Storm (TS) to Category-3.
... Multidisciplinary and multiproxy approaches improve hazard and risk assessment (Koshimura et al., 2014;De Martini et al., 2021;Röbke et al., 2015Röbke et al., , 2016Röbke et al., , 2018. Regarding integrated analysis, the Makran Coast probabilistic and deterministic approaches are integrated for hazard and risk assessment by (Khan et al., 2003a(Khan et al., , 2003bSalmanidou et al., 2019;Rashidi et al., 2020;Yang et al., 2022). Here, we compiled and integrated five different approaches (geophysical, sedimentological-geomorphic, probabilistic modelling, numerical modelling and historical record), which we called a synergic approach for hazard assessment. ...
... Multidisciplinary and multiproxy approaches improve hazard and risk assessment (Koshimura et al., 2014;De Martini et al., 2021;Röbke et al., 2013, Röbke et al., 2015. At the Makran Coast, PTHA and DTHA are used together by (Khan et al., 2003a(Khan et al., , 2003bEl-Hussain et al., 2018;Salmanidou et al., 2019;Yang et al., 2022;Zafarani et al., 2022). We compiled and integrated five different approaches (geophysical, PTHA, DTHA, sedimentary tsunami deposits, and historical record), which we called a synergic approach for hazard and risk assessment. ...
... The probable PGA value of 1.0 with a return period of 2500 years capable of generating a Mw 8.0 earthquake (Ahmed et al., 2019;Waseem et al., 2019Waseem et al., , 2020 is in close agreement with the Zafarani et al. (2022) model. The results of Khan et al. (2003aKhan et al. ( , 2003b are entirely different as they calculated the recurrence interval for this much intensity as 70 years, as the well-known historical record of the last 300 years does not account for such an interval. ...
The well-known 1755 CE Lisbon tsunami caused widespread destruction along the Iberian and northern Moroccan
coastlines. Being affected by the powerful 1755 CE Lisbon tsunami, the southwestern Algarve shelf provides environments for detecting offshore tsunami imprints. Our multidisciplinary investigations (hydroacoustics, sedimentology,
geochemistry, radiocarbon dating) of the Holocene sediments have revealed tsunami deposits linked to this tsunami
and a ca. 3600 cal yr BP event. The latter event is until now unidentified in Portugal. Both event deposits contrast with
the background shelf sedimentation by their coarser grain size, element composition, internal structure, and erosive
base, making them discernible in the sub-bottom data and cores. Especially the ca. 3600 cal yr BP deposit is exceptionally well-preserved at one of the coring sites. The clear differentiation into several sections enables further insights into offshore tsunami transport and depositional processes. This study demonstrates that the record and
preservation of tsunami deposits were possible on the Algarve shelf in specific locations sheltered from possible alterations. Our findings extend the tsunami catalogs of Portugal with a previously unknown tsunami dated to ca. 3600
cal yr BP.
© 2023 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
... Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) reports that in the past 50 years, 58 earthquakes of considerable magnitude struck Pakistan and caused serious damages to assets and lives [23]. However, six dangerous earthquakes to have struck in the region (Pakistan) are Kangra earthquake in 1905, Quetta earthquake in 1935, Makran earthquake in 1945, Kashmir earthquake in 2005, Southern Pakistan earthquake in 2011, and Awaran earthquake in 2013 [23][24][25][26][27]. On average, Pakistan may experience a damaging earthquake every 10 years, which can result in huge socioeconomic losses, and cause devastation to cultural heritage sites [28]. ...
Earthquakes have caused huge infrastructural damages along with loss of lives in the recent past. Continuous subduction of the Indian plate beneath the Eurasian plate has made Pakistan a seismically active region in the world. Malakand, located in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province of Pakistan, is declared at high earthquake risk by the National Disaster Management Authority of Pakistan, warranting a seismic vulnerability assessment study for its existing building stock. Vulnerability assessment of a representative sample of different building use-types was carried out using the rapid visual screening (RVS) procedure of FEMA P-154. The sample size was calculated based on Yamane formula. RVS sheets are used to calculate structural scores, and likely seismogenic damage is depicted as a function of damage grades of European Macro Seismic Scale. Of the building stock inspected, it was observed that almost half of the buildings fall in damage grade 4 and 5, implying a strong probability of heavy structural and non-structural damages in the case of future earthquake occurrence. Government school buildings were found to be less vulnerable than private counterparts. Most of the commercial buildings were not constructed according to building code, making them highly susceptible to damage. Based on the results of vulnerability assessment of building structures, the article recommends implementation of building codes which can lead to a decrease in infrastructural damages and economic losses in the wake of a future seismic event.
... Note that SRL (Equations 9-11) is taken as one half of fault length (MonaLisa et al. 2007;ICOLD 1989). m o calculated from (Equations 9-11) was compared with the maximum observed Mw within the fault width (W) and larger of the two was taken as m o (Khan, Shah, and Qaisar 2003). The focal depth of earthquakes associated with the fault was taken as average focal depth of earthquakes that lie within W. m max (Equation 7) is taken as half unit larger than m o (Hashash et al. 2012a) whereas m Exp (Equation 7) was calculated using Equation (12) which considers the slip predictable behaviour of the fault (Ordaz, Auguilar, and Arboleda 2007). ...
Pakistan has been a victim of earthquakes from time to time. A reliable quantification of seismic hazard is important to reduce the life and economic losses in future. This paper presents the details of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Pakistan which was conducted to determine ground motion parameters required for the design of structures. A seismicity model comprising areal sources and fault systems was employed for modelling earthquake activity. The country was divided into several areal zones considering the spatial and temporal distribution of earthquakes which was documented with the help of a catalogue. A number of faults and fault systems were also included in the analysis. Two types of Poissonian models were used to model earthquake recurrence for the areal and lines sources separately. Existing attenuation relationships in the literature were employed to relate the seismicity with the distance. The analysis was carried out using a commercial computer programme and hazard curves were determined for different return periods and spectral periods for response spectral acceleration. A seismic zonation map for Pakistan was developed for the quantification of seismic loading. Uniform hazard spectra were calculated and were compared with the design spectra in the existing code which indicated differences between the two types of spectra.
... In the recent years, seismic hazard analyses of the Karachi city are dealt with in two regional studies. Khan et al. (2003) assigned a PGA of 0.08 g to the Karachi city while Building Code of Pakistan; Seismic provisions (NESPAK 2007) assigned values of 0.20 g. Except for the NESPAK (2007), past seismic hazard analyses for Karachi are primarily based on instrumental seismicity record, with only limited considerations of the active faults in the surroundings of the Karachi city. ...
... These include both regional studies (e.g. Giardini et al. 1999;Gupta 2006;Building Code of Pakistan 2007;PMD and NOR-SOR 2007;Rafi et al. 2012;Giardini et al. 2018;Danciu et al. 2018a;Sesetyan et al. 2018) as well as local studies (Khan et al. 2003). There are considerable differences in seismic source area characterization. ...
... Recent seismic source characterizations attempted for Karachi and surrounding region are mostly based on this approach (e.g. Khan et al. 2003;NESPAK 2007). This approach warrants usage of ground motion prediction models (GMPMs) appropriate to tectonic setting for the seismic sources, which is however, lacking in Khan et al. (2003) and NESPAK (2007). ...
Karachi is Pakistan’s largest city with population exceeding 18 million and is amongst the top five most congested cities in the world. Karachi has experienced no earthquake related damage in the recorded history of past ~ 175 years. Yet, Karachi is located in a seismically active tectonic setting often compared to Los Angeles with active plate boundary faults and triple junctions within a radius of ~ 150 km. This discrepancy in earthquake history and seismotectonic setting has led to diverse seismic hazard assessments for Karachi ranging from assignment of seismic hazard zones I (least severe) to IV (most severe). Recent assessment adopted in Building Code of Pakistan (2007) assigns an intermediate seismic hazard value of 0.16–0.24 g (Zone IIB) to Karachi, which is broadly accepted but sometimes criticized to be an underestimation (e.g. Bilham et al. Seismol Res Lett 78(6):601–631, 2007). The present study based on a new active faults compilation and seismic sources definition together with incorporation of maximum possible information on historical earthquakes (up to 893AD) has led to a re-assessment of seismic hazard for Karachi using probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard assessment approaches. According to this study, Karachi is assessed to be prone to ground motions ~ 0.25 g with metropolitan areas having hazard values between 0.21 and 0.25 g for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years (475-year return period). The deterministic seismic hazard analysis suggest maximum that peak ground acceleration (PGA) varies from 0.19 to 0.99 g in Karachi and its higher values are concentrated around the Nagar Parker fault that is controlling and hazardous for Karachi.
