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Drought is one of the most widespread and devastating extreme climate events when water availability is significantly below normal levels for a long period. In recent years, the Haihe River Basin has been threatened by intensified droughts. Therefore, characterization of droughts in the basin is of great importance for sustainable water resources m...
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... program provided by National Drought Mitigation Center was used to calculate SPI in the study area. Table 1 demonstrates the standards for categorizing the SPI-based dryness/wetness levels and the corresponding cumulative probabilities. ...Context 2
... detailed information on SPEI, please refer to Vicente- . The drought and wetness classification standard for SPEI is as same as that for SPI (Table 1). ...Context 3
... reveals that the drought condition is mainly dominated by the large seasonal precipitation variations. According to the drought severity classification standard shown in Table 1, drought events at different severity levels were identified. In the Haihe River Basin, the long-term moderate drought events occurred in the periods of 1965−1966, 1968−1969, 1972−1973, 1997−1998, 1999−2000, and 2001−2003. ...Context 4
... agreed with the spatial distribution pattern of geopotential height in summer. To further analyze the association between wet/dry conditions and atmospheric circulations, the summer wet/dry conditions were classified into four categories according to the standards shown in Table 1. In the past 57 years, two severe wetness events, eight moderate wetness events, two moderate drought events, and 45 near-normal events occurred. ...Similar publications
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Understanding and exploring hydrological (H) or soil moisture (SM) drought due to meteorological (M) drought under changing climate is crucial for drought early warning. Previously, different methods were used to calculate drought propagation from one state (M to another [H or SM]). However, each method has its pros and cons and thus cannot describ...
Drought is a naturally occurring event caused due to deficiency in precipitation over an
extended period of time. It is a slow-onset, creeping natural hazard that affects continuously all parts of
the world. It occurs in all climatic zones such as high as well as low precipitation areas and causes high
economic and social losses around the world. D...
Citations
... The records indicate mean yearly PPT of 545 mm and a yearly temperature of 10.4°C . Despite the drought resistance of crop types and irrigation technology that affect water use and crop management (Liu et al. 2010;Sun, Wang, and Hao 2017), the area has suffered from recurring droughts and water shortages in HRB in recent decades (Wei et al. 2021;Yang et al. 2016). Over the past 50 years, 41 severe drought events have occurred in the HRB, affecting areas greater than 20,000 km 2 (Qin et al. 2015). ...
There has been increasing attention paid to the effects of drought, especially extreme drought, on vegetation productivity under climate change. However, there are still challenges in quantifying the variations and the adverse effect of extreme drought on vegetation productivity at a regional scale within the context of historical climate change. This study quantified changes in the characteristics of extreme droughts and their effects on vegetation productivity in the Hai River Basin (HRB) of China, using factual climate (with climate trends) and counterfactual climate (detrended) data from the ISIMIP3a project. Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Run theory were utilised to determine characteristic factors (drought frequency, duration, severity, intensity and peak) under climate change. By comparing factual and counterfactual forcing simulations, the detected changes in characteristic factors were attributed to climatic trends. The negative effects of extreme droughts on gross primary productivity (GPP) were quantified. Results showed that there were more serious extreme drought events that occurred in HRB from 1901 to 2019 under factual climate than those under counterfactual climate. The difference was exacerbated in the late stages (1980–2019) over most of the basin. A deceleration was found in the rising pattern of GPP over the last four decades, exacerbating the adverse effects of extreme droughts on GPP under climate change. Compared to those during 1982–2000, GPP experienced further losses related to extreme droughts during 2000–2018 at a rate of 2°gC°m⁻²°day⁻¹. Furthermore, extreme drought‐related GPP losses were most pronounced in summer, indicating that vegetation was more sensitive to extreme droughts during this season. These findings enhance our understanding of historically observed trends of extreme drought and suggest that more strategies should be implemented to protect vegetation from the increasing trends of extreme drought.
... Africa, with its vast drylands and arid and semi-arid climates, is highly susceptible to droughts and land degradation, threatening economic growth, food security, and political stability [21,22]. The Horn of Africa (HOA), characterized by arid and semi-arid conditions, frequently experiences droughts, leading to food and water shortages that severely compromise food security, especially in rapidly growing and less developed regions [23][24][25][26]. ...
This study uses remote sensing data from 2005 to 2023 to analyze the spatiotemporal pattern of agricultural drought severity and hotspots in Somaliland. The Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), derived from MODIS satellite imagery, was employed to assess drought conditions, while CHIRPS rainfall data provided insights into precipitation patterns. Results revealed significant temporal and spatial variability in drought severity across Somaliland. VCI trends indicated cyclical patterns of vegetation health, with severe stress observed from 2015 to 2018,
followed by recovery from 2019 to 2021. A strong positive correlation between VCI and rainfall was observed, with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.5638 in Saaxil to 0.7701 in Togdheer. Drought severity classification identified Sool and Togdheer as the most critically affected regions, with 90% and 85% of their areas under extreme drought conditions, respectively. Saaxil exhibited the lowest percentage of extreme drought at 35%. Temporal analysis of NDVI deviations confirmed prolonged vegetation stress from 2015 to 2018, with notable improvement in 2020 and 2021. The findings underscore Somaliland's vulnerability to recurrent droughts, emphasizing the urgent need for targeted interventions and adaptive management strategies to enhance resilience in this semi-arid region.
... Méndez y Magaña, (2010) reportan que existe influencia del a combinación de ENSO, la Oscilación Decadal del Pacífico (PDO) y la Osci lación Multidecadal del Atlántico (AMO) en un dipolo geográfico (Norte Sur) del país. Otros autores reportan estudios similares en otras partes del mundo (Abiy et al. 2019;Jia et al. 2021). La figura 15 muestra el comportamiento del índice oceánico del Niño (oni; NOAA, 2023) indicando los episodios Niño (>0.5 C) y Niña (<0.5 C). ...
El presente trabajo versa en un análisis de la precipitación histórica en el periodo de 1972 2012 de las estaciones FELIPE CARRILLO PUERTO (DGE) – QROO, X PICHIL QROO y SEÑOR QROO del Servicio Meteorológico Nacional en el Estado de Quintana Roo para determinar los even tos secos y húmedos del poblado Felipe Carrillo Puerto. Se definieron áreas de polígonos circun dantes a las estaciones mediante diagramas de Voronoi y se calculó el índice estandarizado de precipitación (SPI) para la precipitación reportada por cada estación. Se encontró que hay cambios de los patrones de precipitación entre las estaciones que pueden responder a factores geográficos de la zona. Se propuso el cálculo del SPI mediante un factor areal en la zona de estudio. Los re sultados muestran que el factor areal no cambia los eventos húmedos y secos de la zona, lo cual nos permite contar con una distribución de la precipitación en el área cercana a la estación. Los patrones de precipitación muestran para la zona de estudio mayores eventos secos para los últimos años del registro, es decir eventos de sequía en la zona.
... The Haihe River Basin is situated in the semi-arid region of north China, which is a critical area for water supply to the densely populated Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei city cluster and covering approximately 11% of the country's arable land (Wei et al., 2021). Due to the uneven distribution of precipitation attributed to the Asian monsoon climate, this region has frequently experienced severe droughts of recent decades (Bao et al., 2012;T. ...
... Currently, the exploration of dynamic reasons often requires the use of mesoscale meteorological models. However, due to computational resource limitations, the diagnosis of future drought has primarily relied on individual case analyses instead of comprehensively considering the meteorological commonalities during drought events (Jong et al., 2022;Wei et al., 2021). Hence, apart from exploring the spatio-temporal evolution of rainfall and drought under the backdrop of future climate change from a statistical standpoint, it is imperative to employ effective methodologies for examination of the associations between these patterns and overall anomalies in the future climate. ...
... The Haihe River Basin spans an area of approximately 318,000 km 2 , situated between 112°-120°E and 35°-43°N, and borders the Bohai Sea to the east (as illustrated in Figure 1). It houses a dense population of approximately 10% of China's total population and encompasses 25 major cities, including a super-large urban agglomeration of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei city cluster (Wei et al., 2021). The terrain of the Haihe River Basin gradually declines from the northwest to the southeast. ...
Climate change modifies monsoon rainfall patterns, leading to significant impacts on future meteorological droughts. This study investigated the spatiotemporal pattern of future precipitation, drought features, and the dynamic mechanisms governing their evolution induced by teleconnected atmospheric circulation in the Haihe River Basin, situated in the north China monsoon region. The investigation was conducted under SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios of CMIP6, utilizing the Standardized Precipitation Index and an improved run theory at seasonal and annual scales. The findings revealed that high‐emission scenarios cause a wetter climate trend, particularly in autumn and winter, related to the attenuation of the East Asian Trough from climate warming. The uneven intra‐annual precipitation patterns within the basin, induced by the Asian monsoon climate, are expected to improve in the far future, particularly under the SSP2‐4.5 scenarios. The drought frequency, intensity, and duration of future meteorological drought are expected to improve compared to historical conditions under all three scenarios. SSP2‐4.5 shows the shortest duration and lightest intensity of annual droughts. Extreme droughts are primarily driven by strong subsidence with low‐level moisture divergence. However, in the far future, the eastward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high results in reducing moisture transport from the western Pacific, leading to increasing contribution of advection term to atmospheric drying, particularly under the SSP1‐2.6. In winter, the increase in radiative forcing leads to enhanced evapotranspiration from the Eurasian continent, providing additional moisture and alleviating drought, especially in the far future under the SSP1‐2.6 and SSP2‐4.5 scenarios.
... To be clear, our definition of CDH severity is a combination of drought and heat waves influencing factors and interactions, rather than considering drought alone. The CDH events are classified as mild (− 1.5<SPEI ≤ − 1.0), moderate (− 2.0<SPEI ≤ − 1.5), and severe (SPEI ≤ − 2.0) (Wei et al., 2021), denoted as CDHMI, CDHMO, and CDHSE, respectively. Finally, for each station, the annual occurrence of various severity compound drought and heat waves events was calculated. ...
... Okumura et al. (2017) studied effect of La-Niña events on circulation over the US and drought occurrence. Wei et al. (2021) found close connection between droughts in northeastern China and anomalies of the western Pacific subtropical high. Raziei et al. (2012) discovered that droughts in Iran were driven by certain circulation types derived from 500 hPa geopotential. ...
Flash droughts, defined as events with unusually rapid onset and intensification, are emerging into the spotlight as dangerous subseasonal climatic phenomena capable of causing substantial socioenvironmental impacts. However, research on their spatiotemporal variability and major drivers in Central Europe has been limited thus far. This study used gridded soil moisture data from the SoilClim model for the region consisting of the Czech Republic, Slovakia and northern part of Austria in the 1961-2021 period. Established methods of flash drought detection were implemented and adapted to conduct their comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis. The gridded flash drought results were divided into four clusters using the Ward's hierarchical agglomerative method. Individual flash drought episodes were delimited for each cluster, divided into three phases (onset, course, end) and investigated separately in terms of drivers, represented by three meteorological variables (precipitation, actual evapotranspiration, maximum temperature) and atmospheric circulation types based on the objective classification (derived from flow strength, direction and vorticity). The frequency of flash droughts slightly decreased in the winter half-year and slightly increased in the summer half-year, with substantial amplification in the April-June season. The increase was slower than in the case of seasonal droughts, being driven by the longer-term accumulation of water deficit. Circulation drivers exhibited much stronger and more direct influence in the summer half-year, particularly causing the onset of flash drought episodes during the predominance of anticyclonic types and absence of cyclonic types, while the course of flash drought episodes was also connected to increased temperatures and often connected to warm airflow.
... However, when La Nina occurred, the SST of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific fell, the East Asian monsoon became stronger, and the rain belt remained in northern China for an extended period of time, resulting in increased CI. Several studies in HRB have demonstrated the close linkage between summer drought and ENSO event (Wei et al., 2021). PDO was positively correlated with CI in the linear correlation analysis, which was likely due to the fact that PDO could enhance El Niño and is closely related to MEI and SOI. ...
Precipitation concentration is a key climatic factor in the hydrologic system. The purpose of this study was to explore the spatiotemporal variation in precipitation concentration and its possible relationship with large‐scale atmospheric circulation and land use types. Based on daily precipitation recorded at 254 stations during 1961–2019 throughout the Haihe River basin (HRB), linear slope and Manner–Kendall trend analysis were used to analyse the spatial variations and trends of the annual daily precipitation concentration index (CI). The Pearson correlation coefficient and cross wavelet analysis were used to evaluate potential correlations between CI and eight climatic factors. Meteorological stations were classified into three land use types: urban type (UT), farmland type (FT), and natural type (NT) using hierarchical clustering, and the impacts of land use types on CI variations and trends were investigated. Annual CI in HRB showed a significant downward trend with a linear rate of −0.0058/decade, and about 210 of the 254 stations had a downtrend, in which 42 stations were at the significance level of 0.05 but did not reach the significance level of 0.01, and 52 stations are at the 0.01 significance level. The East Asian monsoon index (EASMI), South Asian monsoon index (SASMI), South China Sea monsoon index (SCSMI), and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) were positively correlated with CI, whereas the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Multivariate ENSO index (MEI), and Western Pacific index (WP) were negatively correlated. The Sunspot index (SS) had a significant resonance period of 9–14‐year with CI. EASMI and ENSO events were the dominant factors driving CI trends. The negative CI trends of UT were more significant than those of FT and NT, with linear slope gaps of −0.0041/decade (UT versus FT) and −0.0064/decade (UT vs. NT), respectively.
... China has experienced frequent droughts events in recent years . The Hai River Basin (HRB) is the area that receives the least rainfall along the eastern coast of China and also experiences the most serious drought disasters in China (Wei et al., 2021;Yang et al., 2016). In this study, the HRB, with its frequent droughts, was selected as the study area. ...
With global climate change, frequent flash droughts have critically impacted vegetation productivity. Based on the new definition on flash drought onset and duration, the temporal and spatial evolution patterns of the flash drought over the Hai River Basin (HRB) was analysed. Among the events, the flash drought in 2019 lasted for 40 days, from the day of the year (DOY) 120 to DOY160, which was the strongest and mainly concentrated in the south-eastern part of the basin. Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) and vegetation indices were used to explore the responses of different vegetation types to this flash drought. Compared to forest and grassland, the SIF and SIFyield (SIF normalized by the absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR)) values of cropland were more sensitive to water losses and replenishment. By analysing different radiation conditions which would affect SIF and photosynthesis, low radiation was found altering the linear relationship between fluorescence and photosynthesis. The flash drought event caused gross primary productivity (GPP) losses in 40% of the basin and the maximum loss reached 0.16 kg C m⁻², indicating that the impact of this flash drought on vegetation productivity was quite serious. The results obtained in this work can be used to understand the mechanisms with which the vegetation photosynthetic capacity responds to flash droughts and to evaluate the impact of flash droughts on terrestrial ecosystems.
... According to Approach (3), multiple linear regression is also adopted for the contrast between the impacts on the MCBs from RCFs and those from LSAC. Since most of these LSAC have close relationships with geographic factors like longitude, latitude, and elevation, some of which are even linear , Wei et al 2021, it is rational to hypothetically represent LSAC with geographic factors. ...
... This finding indicates that, among all meteorological variables, precipitation may be the least sensible to LSAC, but the most susceptible to the construction of dams and related reservoirs. Such finding is slightly counterintuitive, since most prevailing studies on LSAC tend to believe that, compared to evaporation and temperature, precipitation is the most direct indicator of LSAC (Wei et al 2021. The reason is that, when it narrows down to a given area with a reservoir being the center, the impacts of LSAC on precipitation could be overwhelmed by that from the reservoir. ...
As a primary artificial project in a river basin, the role of large dams (and related reservoirs) in mitigating the hydrological and meteorological extremes has been widely recognized. Moreover, construction of additional large dams is considered as one of the best available options to meet future increases in water, food, and energy demands, although this may drastically affect the surrounding natural environment. However, the issue about the degree of such effects is still unclear, although the interactive impacts of dams (and related reservoirs) on the changes in meteorological variables is of great scientific importance. Therefore, this study aims to explore the impacts of reservoir characteristic factors (RCFs) on local climate change near the reservoir through examining the correlations between the RCFs of selected dams (and related reservoirs) and meteorological variables all over the world. The major findings are: 1) the correlations of the RCFs with evaporation are opposite with those with precipitation; 2) dams (and related reservoirs) can have completely opposite (weakening or enhancing) effects on different meteorological variables; and 3) the RCFs outperforms the geographical factors in terms of the impact on precipitation, whereas the variation of evaporation is more sensitive to geographical factors. Overall, the outcomes of this study will be useful for policymakers to have a more informed understanding of local climate change affected by large dams (and related reservoirs) in the future.
The Haihe River system, located in the East Asian monsoon climate zone, experiences uneven precipitation and significant variability, leading to frequent droughts and floods that disrupted economic and social development. While many studies have assessed the risks of droughts and floods in the Haihe River Basin, most focus on the basin as a whole, leaving a notable gap in research on the dynamics of the northern region. This study analyzed historical drought and flood data, incorporating instrument precipitation records from 1960 to 2009 to reconstruct conditions in the northern Haihe River Basin from 1470 to 2009. Using methods like the Mann–Kendall test, sliding averages, continuous wavelet technology, and spatial analysis, this study examined the trends, change points, periodicity, and spatial patterns of drought and flood variability. The findings showed that from 1470 to 2009, drought and flood variabilities occurred 73.15% of the time in the northern Haihe system, with peak disaster periods in the 17th, 19th, and 20th centuries. The region has alternated between wet and dry cycles, with a notable dry trend emerging in the 21st century. A prominent 35~50-year cycle in drought and flood occurrences was identified, along with high-frequency oscillations. Flood periods were most frequent in the eastern plains, while drought periods were more prevalent in the western areas, gradually shifting eastward since 1950. The research also revealed correlations between drought and flood variability and solar activity, with peak years coinciding with higher frequencies of these events. El Niño events were associated with drought periods, while La Niña events tended to cause flood periods. Factors such as solar activity, El Niño–Southern Oscillation, monsoon climate patterns, topography, and human influences shaped the dynamics of drought and flood variability in the northern Haihe River Basin. A comparison with other regions showed consistent wet and dry cycles over the past 500 years, particularly between the northern and southern parts of the basin. However, since the 21st century, the southern region has remained humid, while the northern region has become increasingly drier. Despite similar temperature trends, humidity changes have diverged in the modern warming period. Although the underlying factors driving drought and flood variability were not fully understood and required a further exploration of the global climate system’s interactions, these findings emphasized the need for targeted strategies to address the ongoing challenges of drought and flood management in the northern Haihe River Basin.
