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... GDP per capita growth: During the reform period, there was a dramatic increase in the GDP per capita (see Figure 1). Prior to the reforms, the per capita income grew at an annual rate of approximately 3.25%, whereas the GDP per capita growth accelerated to an average of 8.62% between 1979 and 2015 (World Bank 2017, own calculations). ...
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Citations
... 35 For such a model, see Glawe and Wagner (2017). 36 See in this context, for example, Wagner (2015Wagner ( , 2016. Figure ...
Over the last decade, a growing body of literature dealing with the phenomenon of the “middle-income trap” (MIT) has emerged. The term MIT usually refers to countries that have experienced rapid growth and thus reached the status of a middle-income country (MIC) in a very short period of time, but have not been able to further catch up with the group of high-income economies. In particular, since the beginning growth slowdown of the Chinese economy in 2011, there has been rising concern that China is, or will also be, confronted with such a trap. This paper analyzes the Chinese MIT situation taking into account both the (absolute and relative) empirical MIT definitions and MIT triggering factors identified in the literature. We not only survey the recent literature, but also make our own MIT forecasts and analyze under which conditions China could be caught in an MIT.
... Each deep growth trough (1981,1984,1990,2001) could only be reversed by comprehensive political reforms. Glawe and Wagner (2017b) describes this in detail using a neoclassical growth model based on the multi-sector modelling literature (Laitner, 2000;Kongsamut, Rebelo and Xie, 2001;Ngai and Pissarides, 2007;Acemoglu and Guerreri, 2008). Here, a market-exogenous MIT explanation is suggested, whereby Chinese growth since 1978 has been created by a series of reforms: ...
... Each deep growth trough (1981,1984,1990,2001) could only be reversed by comprehensive political reforms. Glawe and Wagner (2017b) describes this in detail using a neoclassical growth model based on the multisector modeling literature (Laitner, 2000;Kongsamut et al., 2001;Ngai and Pissarides, 2007;Acemoglu and Guerreri, 2008). Here, a market-exogenous MIT explanation is suggested, whereby Chinese growth since 1978 has been created by a series of reforms: Phase 1. ...
China is currently experiencing a structural change toward tertiarization and an implied growth slowdown associated with it. The paper investigates whether this growth slowdown is merely cyclical or a negative trend, and further what China is doing or should do to avoid falling into a “middle-income trap,” a problem many emerging economies have experienced in recent decades. The pitfalls of the current “soft” rebalancing policy in China are analyzed in the context of this development.
... Besides the growth model of Agénor and Canuto (2015) and the country specific models of Dabús et al. (2016) and Glawe and Wagner (2017b), focusing on the Argentinian and the Chinese economy, respectively, the MIT literature so far has been largely empirical. According to the meta-analysis of Glawe and Wagner (2017a), the main empirical triggering factors identified by the empirical studies are the export structure, total factor productivity, and human capital. ...
... To our knowledge, there are only three growth models, namely a two period overlapping generations model developed byAgénor and Canuto (2015) as well as the country specific models ofDabús et al. (2016) andGlawe and Wagner (2017b). ...
The so-called ‘deep determinants’ of economic growth and development (namely, geography, institutions, and integration) have been found to be decisive for the break out of stagnation and for explaining cross-country income differences by many empirical studies. However, so far, very little has been done to examine to which extent they are also crucial at more subtle stages of economic development. Our paper aims to close this gap by focusing on the phenomenon of the middle-income trap (MIT) which has reached increasing attention in the last 15 years. In particular, we test whether the results of the empirical studies conducted by Acemoglu et al. (2001), Rodrik et al. (2004), and Easterly and Levine (2016) also remain valid when analyzing the MIT. We are the first to analyze the relationship between the deep determinants and the MIT, especially regarding the causal effect of institutional quality on the probability of experiencing a growth slowdown at the middle-income range. Our analysis reveals that while, in general, the deep determinants also seem to play an important role for the middle-income transition (and the question of whether a country falls into an MIT), some differences compared to the results of the standard literature become apparent.
... The term MIT was introduced by Gill and Kharas in 2007 and usually refers to the often-observed case that a developing country's growth rate decreases significantly when the country reaches the middle-income range (Glawe and Wagner, 2016). Besides the growth model of Agénor and Canuto (2015) and the country specific models of Dabús et al. (2016) and Glawe and Wagner (2017b), focusing on the Argentinian and the Chinese economy, respectively, the MIT literature so far has been largely empirical. In particular, three main factors are considered as especially important for triggering an MIT (see meta-analysis in Glawe and Wagner, 2017a), namely the export structure, human capital, and total factor productivity (TFP). ...
The fundamental, underlying factors of development are often neglected when analyzing the question why countries experience a growth slowdown at the middle-income range. Although these so-called ‘deep determinants’ such as geography and institutions have been found to be decisive for the break out of stagnation and for explaining cross-country income differences by many empirical studies, so far, very little has been done to examine to which extent they are also crucial at more subtle stages of economic development. Our paper aims to contribute to close this gap by focusing on the phenomenon of the middle-income trap (MIT) which has reached increasing attention in the last 15 years. In particular, we are interested in whether the deep determinants have positive or negative impacts on the possibility of a country to experience a prolonged stay within the middle-income range. We focus especially on exogenous variables to avoid endogeneity/reverse causality problems. By using simple statistical hypothesis testing, we show that not all findings of the deep determinants literature can be easily transferred to the MIT phenomenon, especially regarding institutional variables. This may raise the question whether we need new deep determinants of growth for the MIT or at least a modified version taking into account the specific circumstances and characteristics of middle-income countries.
... This can be partly attributed to the fact that in the course of structural change, China is currently confronted with the beginning of deindustrialization. In the coming years, the service sector will become by far the greatest sector of the Chinese econ-omy; however, the service sector is generally characterized by slower productivity growth com-pared to the manufacturing sector that has (among others) driven China's growth in recent years (see Glawe and Wagner, 2017b). Thus, future reforms should also focus on improving produc-tivity in the service sector. ...
Since 2010–2011, China’s economy has slowed considerably, raising concerns that the country could fall into the so-called “middle-income trap” (MIT). Obviously, an MIT in China would have serious negative consequences not only for the Chinese population but also for the world economy as a whole. We examine whether China is or will be in an MIT by focusing on the empirical MIT definitions and the MIT triggering factors identified in the literature. We show that dependent on the choice of MIT definition, different MIT statements can be derived. Our triggering factor analysis reveals that while China performs quite well regarding its export structure, it must improve human capital accumulation and total factor productivity to avoid falling into an MIT.
... These operations have supported some U.S. Companies to consolidated internationally competitive and have supplied U.S. consumers with a variety of low-cost goods. China's huge-scale Glawe, L et al. (2017)developed a stylized multi-sector growth model of China's economy. Authors applied a neoclassical modeling approach and focus on the reform process under Deng Xiaoping as China's main growth driver since 1978. ...
... As the world's largest economy in PPP terms and the second largest in terms of nominal exchange rates, such a slowdown has profound implications. Glawe, L et al. (2017)developed a stylized multi-sector growth model of China's economy. Authors applied a neoclassical modeling approach and focus on the reform process under Deng Xiaoping as China's main growth driver since 1978. ...
The purpose of this paper is to apply China’s economy growth prospects and its potential drivers of future. China's fast rise and its growth model have accelerated important existing structural trends in the global economy and made them decisive characteristics of the world economy. China's role in the world economy over the coming decades, an exercise which would not be possible without an investigation of the prospects for China's continued economic rise. On the one hand, China is a large export market for the United States. A lot of U.S. firms use China as the final destination of assembly in their global supply chain networks. China’s huge holdings of U.S. Treasury securities support the federal government finance its budget failures. However, some analysts contend that China consolidates a number of distortive economic policies such as protectionist industrial policies and an undervalued currency that undermine U.S. economic interests. They warn that efforts by the Chinese government to promote indigenous innovation, often through the use of subsidies and other distortive measures, could negatively affect many leading U.S. industries
... 35 For such a model, see Glawe and Wagner (2017). 36 See in this context, for example, Wagner (2015Wagner ( , 2016. Figure ...
Over the last decade, a growing body of literature dealing with the phenomenon of the “middle-income trap” (MIT) has emerged. The term MIT usually refers to countries that have experienced rapid growth and thus reached the status of a middle-income country (MIC) in a very short period of time, but have not been able to further catch up with the group of high-income economies. In particular, since the beginning of the growth slowdown of the economy of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 2011, there has been rising concern that the PRC is, or will also be, confronted with such a trap. This paper analyzes the PRC’s MIT situation taking into account both the (absolute and relative) empirical MIT definitions and MIT triggering factors identified in the literature. We not only survey the recent literature, but also make our own MIT forecasts and analyze under which conditions the PRC could be caught in an MIT.
