Table 6 - uploaded by Ramachandran Kannan
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Citations
... We enhanced STEM's [77][78][79] passenger transportation module [75,76,80,81] to enable endogenous modal shift (Section 3.1). Fig. 2 visualizes the updated demand structure of STEM's passenger transport sector and its multi-objective optimization approach. ...
... The STEM model framework belongs to the TIMES family of models [134]. In its conventional variant (prior this publication), STEM simulates potential cost-optimal future pathways in terms of technology investments and usage, energy consumption, and CO 2 emissions [77][78][79]. While having a long-term time horizon until 2050, it reflects intraday timeslices at an hourly resolution [77][78][79]. ...
... In its conventional variant (prior this publication), STEM simulates potential cost-optimal future pathways in terms of technology investments and usage, energy consumption, and CO 2 emissions [77][78][79]. While having a long-term time horizon until 2050, it reflects intraday timeslices at an hourly resolution [77][78][79]. Being a technology-rich bottom-up ESOM, STEM contains a detailed techno-economic technology characterization of the entire Swiss energy system (see Fig. 1) [77][78][79]. For more detailed specifications of STEM we refer to previous publications [75,[77][78][79][80][81]137]. ...
... This paper presents a framework able to represent in detail both socio-economic structures and energy systems implications connected to ICT applications. The framework couples the Swiss TIMES Energy Systems Model (STEM) [12], based on the TIMES energy systems modelling framework of IEA-ETSAP [13], with a new socio-technical-economic agent-based model, the so-called Socio-Economic Energy model for Digitalization -SEED, which has been specifically designed to interact with it. The SEED model is a first-of-its-kind because it adopts a social practice approach to analyze the impact of new lifestyles enabled by ICTs (e.g., teleworking, e-learning, e-services) on energy consumption patterns by accounting for agents' heterogeneity. ...
... In the context of Switzerland, in the Swiss TIMES Energy Systems Model (STEM) [12,35,36], the consumers' investment in new technologies results from the cost optimization analysis, where consumer energy behavior and social acceptance are represented by side constraints approximating the deployment level of these technologies in society [36]. ...
... The Swiss TIMES Energy Systems Model (STEM) is a well-established energy system model in Switzerland, widely used to assess net-zero carbon dioxide emissions scenarios ( [12,35,36]). ...
... Considering the interest of policymakers and investors and the reviewed literature in section 1. In answering these questions, we apply a technology-rich, cost-optimization model-the Swiss TIMES Energy systems Model (STEM) [43]-in an explorative scenario framework. The novelty of our work lies in the methodological advancements that represent EV charging options with various CIs based on their location type 8 at an hourly intraday temporal resolution [44,45]. ...
... STEM is a technology-rich bottom-up cost-optimization model that applies the TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) modeling framework [43,46]. STEM has an hourly intraday resolution of three typical days in four seasons [43]. ...
... STEM is a technology-rich bottom-up cost-optimization model that applies the TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) modeling framework [43,46]. STEM has an hourly intraday resolution of three typical days in four seasons [43]. STEM's techno-economic richness allows making endogenous investment decisions to provide possible cost-optimal future pathways until 2050, considering technical and policy constraints. ...
A coordinated Charging Infrastructure (CI) strategy could accelerate the adoption of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs). Policymakers need to understand the tradeoffs between several types of CI developments. To support decision-makers, we apply the Swiss TIMES Energy system Model, which we extended with heterogeneous consumer segments with four trip types and several CI options. The novelty of this work lies in the interplay of such method advancements, representing BEV charging options with various CI types that can be accessed based on their location type at an hourly intraday temporal resolution. In explorative scenario analyses, we evaluate the effects of CI on car fleet deployment and their energy system implications in achieving net-zero CO2 emissions in Switzerland by 2050. Our analysis shows that the BEV share makes up 39-77% of the fleet by 2050, and each BEV needs about 5 kW total charging capacity, split into 1.6-2.6 BEVs per private charger and 18-25 BEVs per public charger. Providing overnight charging access through private home chargers or public chargers in residential areas facilitates a 12-20% increased BEV penetration compared to the reference scenario. For consumers without private home charging, improved public CI in non-residential areas increases BEV uptake by 24%. While low-power slow CI is cost-effective at home, high-power fast CI in commercial areas supports integration of solar PV. We highlight the need for coordinated CI policies and provide a variety of policy options based on our analysis and international insights.
... Identifying these solutions requires frameworks that reflect societal, political and technical realities and not overly abstract models 19 . Such a framework is the Swiss TIMES Energy systems Model (STEM) 20 , with rich techno-economic details and sectoral interdependencies supported by state-of-the-art technology assessment 21 . While TIMES-based frameworks are widely used for assessing decarbonisation pathways [22][23][24] , STEM includes unique features identified as important in literature when assessing the energy transition 19 : long-time horizon, high temporal resolution, consumer segmentation, grids topology, unit commitment, energy and ancillary services markets, demand shifts, variability of renewables representation, age structures of assets, endogenous load and demand curves. ...
Switzerland has one of the lowest carbon intensities among industrialised countries. However, its transition to net-zero carbon dioxide emissions is complicated by limited domestic mitigation options, which tend to increase costs, raise energy security concerns, and trigger socio-economic barriers in policy implementation. Research on these issues is relevant to the societal and political debates on energy transition worldwide. Here we apply a well-established techno-economic energy systems model and highlight the challenges of the Swiss energy transition under different technical, socio-economic, and geopolitical contexts. We suggest feasible technical solutions based on low-carbon technologies, efficiency, and flexibility. We find that import independency and net-zero emissions by 2050 require an additional cumulative discounted investment, compared to a business-as-usual scenario, of 300 billion CHF2019 in energy efficiency, negative emissions and renewable technologies. The average per capita costs of net-zero emissions are 320–1390 CHF2019/yr. from 2020 to 2050, depending on exploited domestic mitigation options, integration into international energy markets, and energy security ambition.
... The model was developed in the integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) modeling framework developed in the International Energy Agency (IEA)'s Energy Technology System Analysis Program (ETSAP) (Loulou et al., 2016). The model has a one-way coupling regarding scenarios and fuel prices to the Swiss TIMES Energy system Model (STEM) (Kannan and Turton, 2014); (Panos et al., 2021) which was developed at the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) (Fig. 3). Besides the expansion of the scope of the established model (Obrist et al., 2022) with the food and beverage sector, the new methodology improvements are described in sections 3.1 to 3.3: ...
... The Swiss TIMES 4 Energy Systems Model -STEM [42] is based on the TIMES modelling framework of the International Energy Agency's Technology Collaboration Programme -Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program (ETSAP) [43]. STEM is a bottom-up cost optimisation framework suitable to assess the long-term transformation of the entire Swiss energy system. ...
The urgency to achieve net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 2050, as first presented by the IPCC special report on 1.5°C Global Warming, has spurred renewed interest in hydrogen, to complement electrification, for widespread decarbonization of the economy. We present reflections on estimates of future hydrogen demand, optimization of infrastructure for hydrogen production, transport and storage, development of viable business cases, and environmental impact evaluations using life cycle assessments. We highlight challenges and opportunities that are common across studies of the business cases for hydrogen in Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Norway. The use of hydrogen in the industrial sector is an important driver and could incentivise large-scale hydrogen value chains. In the long-term hydrogen becomes important also for the transport sector. Hydrogen production from natural gas with capture and permanent storage of the produced CO2 (CCS) enables large-scale hydrogen production in the intermediate future and is complementary to hydrogen from renewable power. Furthermore, timely establishment of hydrogen and CO2 infrastructures serves as an anchor to support the deployment of carbon dioxide removal technologies, such as direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) and biohydrogen production with CCS. Significant public support is needed to ensure coordinated planning, governance, and the establishment of supportive regulatory frameworks which foster the growth of hydrogen markets.
... Similarly, in technology potential assessments [27,28,29,30,31,32], an in-depth analysis of their impact on the pulp and paper sector is lacking. Additionally, when looking at holistic energy system models on a national scale, the pulp and paper sector is often not treated in detail, although it is an energy-intensive industry [2,33,34]. The present study tries to combine the advantages of a national energy system model (STEM) [3,34] with a detailed technological analysis of the pulp and paper sector. ...
... Additionally, when looking at holistic energy system models on a national scale, the pulp and paper sector is often not treated in detail, although it is an energy-intensive industry [2,33,34]. The present study tries to combine the advantages of a national energy system model (STEM) [3,34] with a detailed technological analysis of the pulp and paper sector. ...
The contribution of the industrial sector is essential to realize long-term energy and climate policy goals. The present research paper explores trajectories improving energy efficiency and reaching net-zero emissions in the Swiss pulp and paper industry by 2050. A techno-economic bottom-up cost optimization model is developed based on the Swiss TIMES Energy system Model (STEM) and applied for a scenario analysis. Establishing an advanced modeling methodology including material and product flows in addition to energy flows, allowed us to assess explicit process improvements and the impact of specific innovative production technologies. Furthermore, this paper demonstrates the value of dividing industrial heat demand into different temperature levels which enables a detailed assessment of high-temperature heat pumps and waste heat recovery as important decarbonization options in industry. The results of the scenario analysis performed with this advanced model show that an energy reduction of 23% and a reduction in the annual CO2 emissions of 71% until 2050 would result from a cost-optimal technology deployment even without major policy intervention, given the assumptions made on technology progress and costs. These improvements are achieved by fuel switching, improvements in the production processes and deployment of efficient technologies, in particular high-temperature heat pumps and efficient motors. Achieving a net-zero goal in the pulp and paper industry by 2050 requires increased amounts of biomass in the short term and additionally high-temperature heat pumps up to 200 °C in the long-term in case of biomass scarcity. On the other hand, this leads to 49% higher energy related costs compared to the baseline development, if all other sectors decarbonize simultaneously to reach net-zero CO2 emissions in Switzerland.
... The Swiss TIMES 3 Energy Systems Model -STEM [41] is based on the TIMES modelling framework of the International Energy Agency's Technology Collaboration Programme -Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program (ETSAP) [42]. STEM is a bottom-up cost optimisation framework suitable to assess the long-term transformation of the entire Swiss energy system. ...
The recognised urgency to achieve net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 2050, as first presented by the IPCC special report on 1.5 °C Global Warming, has spurred a renewed interest in hydrogen as a companion to electricity for widespread decarbonization of the economy. We present reflections on the estimation of future hydrogen demand, optimization of infrastructure for production, transport and storage, development of viable business cases, and environmental impact evaluations using life cycle assessments. We highlight challenges and opportunities that are common across studies of the business cases for hydrogen in Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Norway. The use of hydrogen in the industry sector is an important driver and could incentivise large-scale hydrogen value chains. In the long-term hydrogen becomes important also for the transport sector. Hydrogen production from
natural gas with capture and permanent storage of the produced CO2 (CCS) enables large-scale hydrogen production in the mid-term future and can be seen as a companion to hydrogen from renewable power. Furthermore, a timely establishment of hydrogen and CO2 infrastructures serves as an anchor to support the deployment of carbon dioxide removal technologies such as direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) and biohydrogen production with CCS. Significant public support is needed to ensure coordinated planning, governance, and the establishment of supportive regulatory frameworks which foster the growth of hydrogen markets
... Secondly, previous studies did not consider the combination of various flexibility options to best evaluate their interplay and their respective roles. Among the models in Table 1, only the model STEM developed by the Paul Scherrer Institute (Switzerland) [32] covers most flexibility options with a certain granularity (corresponding to 15 nodes for Switzerland) but with only 288 representative hourly time slots for a year (also heating profiles from Germany were adapted to Switzerland) [44]. Moreover, energy efficiency has so far only been modelled as an overall decrease of the electricity demand. ...
This paper compares various flexibility options to support renewable energy integration across the energy transition using energy system modelling. We analyse new flexibility assets such as electricity storage, heat pumps, demand-side response with existing wet appliances, electric boilers for domestic hot water and distribution grid expansion, along with energy efficiency measures in electrical appliances and building retrofitting. We propose an open-source sector coupling model (GRIMSEL-FLEX) to minimise, from a social planner perspective, the total cost of the energy system for electricity and residential heating supply in Switzerland, including various types of consumers and urban settings. We find relevant feedback mechanisms among various flexibility options. Firstly, electric boilers have a larger flexibility potential than demand-side response with wet appliances since they reduce storage investments by more than 26% by 2050 (only 12% for demand-side response). Secondly, 34% more electricity storage is needed if heat pumps replace all fossil-based heating and 80% to replace all heating systems entirely. Thirdly, we find a shift in the operation of heat pumps, electric boilers and wet appliances from night to midday, resulting in larger photovoltaic deployment (22%-66% for the residential sector). Finally, electricity storage capacity induced by heat pump deployment is highly dependent on the retrofitting rate. With 1% per annum, 86% of storage investments can be avoided and it can be counterbalanced with a high retrofitting rate of 2% per annum.
... A Switzerland-specific study with an intra-annual hourly time resolution has been conducted by Kannan and Hirschberg [37]. They used the Swiss TIMES energy system model (STEM) [38] to investigate the interactions between the Swiss mobility (including BEV, H 2 -FCEV, yet not SNG-V) and the electricity system in a technology-rich, costoptimal modeling framework with a time horizon 2010 till 2100 for a conservative and a more ambitious decarbonization scenario. They also accounted for cross border electricity trading with neighboring countries and associated GHG contents of imported electricity by employing the CROSSTEM model [39]. ...
Electricity-based mobility (EBM) refers to vehicles that use electricity as their primary energy source either directly such as Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) or indirectly such as hydrogen (H2) driven Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEV) or Synthetic Natural Gas Vehicles (SNG-V). If low-carbon electricity is used, EBM has the potential to be more sustainable than conventional fossil-fuel based vehicles. While BEV feature the highest tank-to-wheel efficiency, electricity can only be stored for short durations in the energy system (e.g. via pumped-hydro storage or batteries), whereas H2-FCEV and SNG-V have a lower tank-to-wheel efficiency due to additional conversion losses, H2 and SNG can be stored longer in pressurized tanks or the natural gas grid. Thus, they feature more flexibility with regard to exploiting renewable electricity via seasonal storage. In this study, we examine whether and under what circumstances this additional flexibility of H2 and SNG can be used to offset additional losses in the powertrain and conversion with respect to greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation of EBM from a life-cycle point of view in a Swiss scenario setting. To this end, a supply chain model for EBM fuels is established in the context of an evolving Swiss and European electricity system along with an approach to estimate the penetration of EBM in a legislation compliant future passenger cars fleet. We show that EBM results in significantly lower life-cycle GHG emissions than a corresponding fossil fuels driven fleet. BEV generally entail the lowest GHG emissions if flexibility options can be offered through sector coupling, short-term and seasonal energy storage or demand side management. Otherwise, in particular with a large expansion of photovoltaics (PV) and curtailment of excess electricity, H2-FCEV and SNG-V feature equal or – in case of high-carbon electricity imports – even lower GHG emissions than BEV.
