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Changes in discrete outcomes. Note: The top panels (a) show the percent support for each consolidation strategy in the treatment (Threat) and control (No Threat) conditions. The bottom panels (b) present the estimated change in average predicted probabilities by moving the treatment variable from zero to one based on two multinomial logit models. The dot indicates the change in predicted probability for each of the three outcomes estimated in each model. The lines indicate the 95 per cent confidence intervals around the estimate.
Source publication
The public places an important constraint on funding security in Europe, and austerity risks making the constraint tighter. Several recent studies show that curtailing military spending is a popular way to reduce debt in Europe. Yet it remains unclear if military spending aversion persists when threats are salient. We fielded an original survey exp...
Contexts in source publication
Context 1
... war in the next five years. Table 1 presents the coefficients from the multinomial logit regression. 9 Relative to the 'neither' condition, individuals are significantly less likely to support military spending cuts under the treatment condition than when no treatment was delivered. For a more intuitive display of the results, the top panels of Fig. 3 present two histograms of the choices individuals made under the pure control and threat treatment conditions for two questions regarding options to reduce sovereign ...
Context 2
... in support for military spending cuts under the different treatment conditions that correspond with Table 1's estimates. We next plot these results in the form of the effect of the threat treatment on the change in the average predicted probability our respondents will select each of the three possible outcomes in each model. The bottom panels in Fig. 3 confirm that the threat treatment has a significant and substantive effect on individuals' constrained fiscal policy choices. The bottom-left panel presents these marginal effects for a trade-off between taxes, military spending reductions, or neither. We see that respondents are 11 per cent less likely to select military spending as ...
Citations
... Italy contributed significantly to NATO missions in Eastern Europe (Ravazzolo and Marrone 2024), restructuring (and enhancing) its armed forces. Moreover, recent experimental research reveals how-under specific conditions-even the pacifist Italian public opinion is ready to change attitudes (Di Giuseppe et al. 2023). Thus, the post-2022 Italian defense, which represents a relevant case for the possible shift of defense policy paradigms in Europe, must be clarified. ...
How did the Russian invasion of Ukraine shape European security? The manuscript aims to answer this question by looking at the evolution of defense policy paradigms. Apparently, the Russian aggression has boosted a return of “territorial defense,” after decades of crisis management operations. Yet, moving along this trajectory could be more problematic than expected. Rather than a “paradigm shift,” the degree of change could more limited (e.g., “readjustment”). Relying on the case of Italy, the paper assesses the degree, and the path, of transformation. The article claims that crisis management remains vital for Italy, which is navigating muddling through in the field of defense policy. This Forum aims to disentangle how the war in Ukraine has changed the organization of European security. The paper contributes by looking at how actors perceive and assure security thought the analysis of defense policy paradigms.
This paper delves into the dynamic relationship between where the conflict takes place and public support for military intervention in the context of friendly countries facing aggression. Focusing on the recent surge of Western assistance to Ukraine and the growing concerns about China–Taiwan tensions, our experimental study, conducted in Japan and Czechia, investigates whether regional proximity influences individuals’ willingness to endorse the use of force. Findings reveal significant variations in support based on the distance from the conflict zone, with Czech respondents less inclined to support intervention in Taiwan, contrasting with Japanese respondents. These insights pose critical considerations for the future of the liberal international order and military planning, underscoring the challenges in garnering widespread public backing for interventions in geographically distant scenarios.
In recent decades, fiscal integration in Europe has manifested through restrictive rules. However, the consolidation of public finances often encounters citizens’ resistance. International obligations can raise public support for costly domestic policies that are consistent with the obligations’ terms, but can European fiscal pledges influence public opinion and boost support for austerity? I fielded an original survey experiment in Italy and manipulated information about the existence of a new fiscal rule, national or European, mandating austerity measures. In stark contrast with extant research, I find no evidence that the source of the fiscal rule matters when measuring respondents’ support for austerity. This result suggests that the effect of international pledges on garnering public support for costly domestic measures wanes if these measures directly burden citizens’ financial well-being. Moreover, relinquishing fiscal autonomy in favour of new European rules appears unlikely to aid politicians in winning public endorsement for an austerity agenda.
In the framework of activities to understand the public’s perception of artificial intelligence
(AI), it is appropriate to extend this field of research to the security and defence sector. For
this reason, the purpose of this study is to observe how a sample of the Italian public assesses
the introduction of intelligent systems in the military (in this study, the term “intelligent
systems” refers to applications/equipment that use artificial intelligence to function), what is
the state of mind generated by the possible use of these technological innovations and whether
human control is an expected condition in Italy.
An online survey, hosted by the google.it platform (https://www.google.it/intl/it/forms/about/),
was prepared and the link to the questionnaire was disseminated in Italy through social
networks (Facebook, LinkedIn e X) and the whatsApp application. The 524 participants were
able to join the initiative from 30 December 2023 to 15 January 2024 and answer
anonymously and on a voluntary basis.
At the end of the examination of the collected data, it emerged that the participants have not
yet taken a specific position with respect to the theme of AI. The use of intelligent applications
in the military sector is of interest but is also a source of concern which has led a clear majority
of the sample to prefer that human control of these emerging technologies is maintained.
Therefore, it is highly recommended to initiate interventions to keep humans at the centre of
the new digital age and to devolve to AI the task of enhancing their capabilities. An effective
communication plan describing the opportunities offered by intelligent systems to be
introduced in the defence sector could be useful in supporting or improving current levels of
public consensus.
Key words: artificial intelligence, Public opinion, Defense, Security
