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Changes in average annual sea surface temperature (°C) by the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, with respect to the model-simulated 1961-90 average. UKCIP02 Climate Change Scenarios (funded by DEFRA, produced by Tyndall and Hadley Centres for UKCIP).  

Changes in average annual sea surface temperature (°C) by the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, with respect to the model-simulated 1961-90 average. UKCIP02 Climate Change Scenarios (funded by DEFRA, produced by Tyndall and Hadley Centres for UKCIP).  

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... Même si l'on détecte ces différences, la transition vers les assemblages coralligènes reste graduelle comme l'atteste un mélange d'espèces infralittorales et circalittorales à 25 -35 m, que l'on pourrait donc qualifier d'assemblage pré-coralligène. Il est intéressant de noter que la plupart des sites profonds (25 -35 m) sont fortement colonisés par Caulerpa cylindracea (Fig. 6), une espèce non indigène endémique du Sud-Ouest de l'Australie avec des affinités tempérées-chaudes à pan-tropicales (Verlaque et al. 2003) et signalée comme l'envahisseur le plus impactant pour les récifs méditerranéens (Piazzi et al. 2005 ;Montefalcone et al. 2015). Depuis son premier rapport en Libye en 1990 (Nizamuddin, 1991) et d'après sa cinétique de propagation (Verlaque et al. 2000 ;Piazzi et al. 2005), C. cylindracea a probablement un impact sur toutes les côtes méditerranéennes et sur tous les types de substrats et communautés de 0 à 50 m de profondeur, attestant d'une large niche écologique (Verlaque et al. 2000 ;Piazzi et al. 2005). ...
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... OICHA survey sites are located throughout the Orkney Islands archipelago representing a range of environmental conditions along gradients of exposure, salinity, and pollution, as well as including different substrates (Table 1; Figure 2). Since 2014, rocky shore monitoring by the OICHA has adopted the MarClim survey protocol described by Mieszkowska et al. (2005) and utilised as part of long-term monitoring on Scottish shores (Burrows et al., 2017). MarClim-style surveys are conducted by a team of two, with one person assigned to take photos and replicate counts of barnacles and limpets while the second person with the aid of survey form identifies and allocates species to a SACFOR abundance scale (Hiscock, 1981). ...
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... Therefore, limpets are keystone species and shape the structure of rocky the intertidal zone (Hawkins et al., 2009). Despite their capacity to tolerate environmental challenges, seawater temperature is the main driver of their recruitment process and overall distribution (Mieszkowska et al., 2005;Hawkins et al., 2008Hawkins et al., , 2009. Like other organisms, they have been proposed as suitable indicators to help monitor and predict future climate changes for species living in the intertidal zone (Mieszkowska et al., 2005Hawkins et al., 2009), and in the ocean water column, such as plankton or even fishes (Southward et al., 1995). ...
... Despite their capacity to tolerate environmental challenges, seawater temperature is the main driver of their recruitment process and overall distribution (Mieszkowska et al., 2005;Hawkins et al., 2008Hawkins et al., , 2009. Like other organisms, they have been proposed as suitable indicators to help monitor and predict future climate changes for species living in the intertidal zone (Mieszkowska et al., 2005Hawkins et al., 2009), and in the ocean water column, such as plankton or even fishes (Southward et al., 1995). ...
Article
Mapping species' geographical distribution is fundamental for understanding current patterns and forecasting future changes. Living on rocky shores along the intertidal zone, limpets are vulnerable to climate change, as their range limits are controlled by seawater temperature. Many works have been studying limpets' potential responses to climate change at local and regional scales. Focusing on four Patella species living on the rocky shores of the Portuguese continental coast, this study aims to predict climate change impacts on their global distribution, while exploring the role of the Portuguese intertidal as potential climate refugia. Ecological niche models combine occurrences and environmental data to identify the drivers of these species' distributions, define their current range, and project to future climate scenarios. The distribution of these limpets was mostly defined by low bathymetry (intertidal) and the seawater temperature. Independent of the climate scenario, all species will gain suitable conditions at the northern distribution edge while losing in the south, yet only the extent of occurrence of P. rustica is expected to contract. Apart from the southern coast, maintenance of suitable conditions for these limpets' occurrence was predicted for the western coast of Portugal. The predicted northward range shift follows the observed pattern observed for many intertidal species. Given the ecosystem role of this species, attention should be given to their southern range limits. Under the current upwelling effect, the Portuguese western coast might constitute thermal refugia for limpets in the future.
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... While limited observations of kelp forest loss in Scotland are reported, it may be necessary to prepare for future scenarios that project widespread loss (Eger et al., 2020). While no reported cases of kelp forest loss in Scotland, there is little active monitoring or regular surveying of sites beyond the rocky shore littoral zones (Mieszkowska et al., 2005), with the exception of a few research groups which regularly dive the west coast Public perception of kelp forests is currently positive; people of Norway have shown willingness to pay for kelp forest restoration in places where the ecosystems are degraded . Efforts to protect and restore BC ecosystems will have societal and economic benefits which, will have a positive effect on local communities (Pörtner, et al., 2019). ...
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The ecological and biological importance as well as economic, and cultural value of macroalgae is becoming more prominent. Introduction of the term ‘blue carbon’ (BC) has drawn attention to natural coastal ecosystems, the habitats they provide, and their capacity to fix CO2. The overall aim of this thesis was to place the importance of carbon sequestration within the already essential services that macroalgae provide to the biosphere. This thesis focused on: 1) Quantifying the amount of detritus produced by species in Scottish macroalgae habitats and providing annual figures of total carbon leaving kelp forests in fluxes, 2) understanding the processes of degradation of detritus from three dominant kelp species and estimating the pathways of carbon loss of the detritus, and 3) identifying the sources of sediment carbon using biomarkers and environmental DNA primers specific to the class Phaeophyceae. Macroalgae in the North-East Atlantic: 1) fix significant amounts of CO2 through photosynthesis thus removing it from the atmosphere, 2) release the carbon fixed through photosynthesis as detritus which accumulates and is buried, broken down by bacteria, and contributes to food webs, and 3) contributes carbon to sediment stores in Scotland and the wider North-East Atlantic shelf. These three criteria are fundamental blue carbon habitat characteristics. It is thereby recommended that macroalgae are henceforth included in blue carbon frameworks and directives, particularly in Scotland, where the contribution to long-term carbon stores in fjord and shelf systems is potentially greater than any other BC habitat in the region. It is estimated that 0.2 Mt C yr-1 is transferred to sediments from macroalgae in Scotland, the equivalent of 0.04 g C m-2 of kelp forest.
... The distributions of marine invertebrates tend to conform to their thermal tolerance limits (Sunday et al., 2012); therefore in line with warming waters, species are shifting their distributions to higher latitudes (Helmuth et al., 2006;Mieszkowska et al., 2006;Cheung et al., 2009). Range shifts have already been observed in the marine environment and have occurred much faster than in terrestrial systems, with reported poleward shifts of over to 50 km per decade (Mieszkowska et al., 2005;Sorte et al., 2010;Poloczanska et al., 2013). ...
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Contemporary climate change (CCC) and non-indigenous species (NIS) are two of the biggest threats to global biodiversity and together are expected to drive a rapid global redistribution of species by the end of the century. Although understanding the interaction between NIS and CCC is crucial for the management of native ecosystems, forecasting future changes remains a significant challenge. It is thus recognised that understanding the physiological mechanisms that shape distributions and promote NIS spread is necessary to make robust forecasts under CCC. In this thesis, novel experimental and ecological niche modelling (ENM) techniques were combined to explore how the highly successful NIS, the Pacific oyster Magallana gigas, may be affected by end-of-the-century environmental conditions. The present research has shown during long-term exposure that M. gigas individuals were physiologically tolerant to CCC conditions predicted for the end of the century. It was evident that M. gigas has a broad environmental tolerance and have undergone rapid niche shifts during introduction that have likely facilitated its current rapid global spread. In addition, both correlative and mechanistic ENMs predicted that M. gigas will undergo a poleward range expansion by the end of the century. Modelling with inter-individual variability showed complex geographical changes in life-history traits in response to CCC. It was apparent that both correlative and mechanistic ENMs can complement each other and provide a unique insight into the predicted changes in species' niches under environmental change. This thesis presented the first long-term, multi-factor mesocosm study of M. gigas, tested the differences between popular niche shift frameworks and presented the first bioenergetic model combining inter-individual variability and environmental variability to predict species responses to CCC across large geographical areas. Taken together, a combination of techniques has produced robust predictions forecasting the continued survival and spread of M. gigas under end-of-the-century CCC.
... Adjustments in species distributions, abundance and community compositions have been globally reported and associated with these climate-related changes (eg. García Molinos et al., 2015;Hawkins et al., 2009;Mieszkowska, 2015;Mieszkowska et al., 2005;Mieszkowska & Sugden, 2016;Poloczanska et al., 2016;Smale et al., 2019). Studies focussing on temporal and spatial variations in the composition of communities (expressed as beta-diversity) have shown an increasing homogenization (Dornelas et al., 2014;Magurran et al., 2015;Piazzi & Ceccherelli, 2020). ...
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Aim To understand spatial‐temporal changes (beta‐diversity) in coastal communities and their drivers in the context of climate change. Coastal ecosystems are extremely exposed and dynamic, where changes in seaweed assemblages have been associated with changing water temperatures. However, at local scale, the effects of changes in the upwelling events and related stressors seek further exploration. Location Galicia rías, North West of the Iberian Peninsula. Methods Using data collected in 42 sampling localities in Galicia rias and over two time periods (1998 and 2014), we analysed changes in the seaweed community's composition through time and space. We calculated the temporal beta‐diversity index and spatial beta‐diversity as the pairwise composition differences between sampling localities. We use generalized dissimilarity models, to identify local environmental drivers of spatial and temporal beta‐diversity. Results We found a significant change in seaweed communities of Galicia rias, between 1998 and 2014 (temporal beta‐diversity). They were mostly related to species loss rather than to species replacement. The dissimilarity among localities (spatial beta‐diversity) was significantly higher in 2014 than in 1998. Nitrate concentration was consistently predicted as the main driver of both temporal and spatial beta‐diversity patterns. Main conclusions Unlike other studies in marine ecosystems, our results suggest that observed changes in the structure of perennial seaweed assemblages in Galicia Rias might lead to a local biotic heterogenization, indirectly linked to climate change through changes in nutrients availability and the upwelling intensity. Changes in Galicia seaweed communities call scientific attention to the importance of local stressors in climate change studies.
... Global sea surface temperature (SST) has been warming at approximately 0.13 • C per decade since the 1980's (IPCC, 2007), this is evident off the coast of Plymouth (England), which experienced a 1 • C increase between 1980 and 2000 (Hawkins et al., 2003). Coastal marine species can be effectively used to measure and track the influence of such climate change upon species distributions (Mieszkowska et al., 2005. However, abiotic factors affecting limpet body temperature and its consequences for physiological and behavioural responses can be multifaceted, complex, and difficult to distinguish (Gilman et al., 2006;Helmuth et al., 2006). ...
Article
Poleward migrations of coastal marine species are occurring due to anthropogenic climate change. Temperature is a known driver of species distributions, however, the specific influence of temperature responsible for ecological disruption are diverse and often species-specific. If we are to predict future impacts of climate change it is imperative we have a comprehensive understanding of the influences of temperature at the scale of individual organisms, especially for ecosystem engineer species. In this study, manipulative mesocosm experiments were conducted to explore how temperature affects limpet feeding and activity rates, and duration of tenacity ability of the foot was used to assess the impact of water temperature on biological function. Mesocosm trials and biological function analysis indicated that P. vulgata may be more eurythermal, whilst P. depressa has a higher thermal tolerance while performing simple biological functions at higher temperatures. These investigations supplement the established body of research aimed at improving the predictive power of species distribution models (SDM) used to forecast the impact of climate change by pointing to potential importance of sub-lethal effects upon behaviour and performance.
... The rocky intertidal ecosystem is one of the most vulnerable ecosystems on Earth to climate change (Helmuth et al., 2006). In response to the extreme thermal stress on the shore, intertidal organisms have developed adaptive responses in terms of behavior, physiology and protein evolution, and have become a 'model' system for exploring thermal adaptive mechanisms and for studying the impacts of climate change on different levels of biological organization, from the cellular to the biogeographic scale (Helmuth et al., 2006;Kuo and Sanford, 2009;Menge et al., 2008;Mieszkowska et al., 2005;Ng et al., 2017;Somero et al., 2017). ...
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... The ACFOR scale was subsequently used for other studies of vertical and horizontal patterns (Nelson-Smith, 1967) and biologicallyderived wave exposure scales (Ballantine, 1961) on rocky shores. More recently, the ACFOR scale was again adopted to resurvey sites assessed in the 1950s using ACFOR under the MARCLIM (Herbert et al., 2003(Herbert et al., , 2007Simkanin et al., 2005; and specifically Mieszkowska et al., 2006aMieszkowska et al., , 2006b. Hawkins and Jones (1992) provide a table that illustrates the relationship between ACFOR and abundance scales with as many as eight categories. ...
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Background: the context and purpose of the study Semi-quantitative scales are often used for the rapid assessment of species composition and abundance during time-limited surveys. The semi-quantitative SACFOR abundance scale was developed to support the observation of marine habitats, communities and species and is widely used in the UK. As such, there is now a vast accumulation of SACFOR data. However, there several acknowledged limitations associated with its format that prevent re-analysis. Methods: how the study was performed and statistical tests used A conversion process is proposed here that allows: (i) the merging of taxa within counts or cover data sub-sets; (ii) observations, based on either counts and cover, to be unified into one matrix; (iii) counts and cover data to have an equal weighting in the final matrix; and (iv) the removal of the influence of body size and growth form from the final values. To achieve this, it is only possible to preserve the ordinal structure of the data set. Results: the main findings Simulations verified that the SACFOR conversion process (i) converted random cover and counts data whilst maintaining the majority of the ordinal structure and (ii) aligned abundance values regardless of whether it was recorded as a cover or count. A case study is presented, that uses real SACFOR observations, to demonstrate the conversion process and the application of statistical analyses routinely used in ecological assessments. Conclusions: brief summary and potential implications It is hoped that the SACFOR conversion process proposed here facilitates: (i) the quantitative re-analysis of the burgeoning SACFOR data repository; and (ii) initiates a debate on alternative methods for the conversion of SACFOR data into analysable end products.