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Change in mean annual flow levels over time for the five monitoring points within the Corrente River Basin. A-Rio Arrojado, B-Rio Correntina, C-Rio Formoso, D-Rio do Meio, and E-Rio Corrente
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Water is one of the most important natural resources and it is essential for human supply, industrial use, and agricultural production. Non-stationarity in historical flow series can indicate the approach of a water crisis or the occurrence of extreme events, which calls for measures to prevent worse scenarios. The objective of this study was to ex...
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Context 1
... annual flows in the analyzed period are shown in Fig. 2. There is a sharp decline in their values over time. This behavior indicates that the series may not be stationary due to the sudden changes in their levels. The results of the Mann-Kendall, Sen's slope, and Spearman's rho tests are shown in Table 3. For all seasons, all the p-values of the Mann-Kendall test applied to the flow series ...
Context 2
... annual flows in the analyzed period are shown in Fig. 2. There is a sharp decline in their values over time. This behavior indicates that the series may not be stationary due to the sudden changes in their levels. The results of the Mann-Kendall, Sen's slope, and Spearman's rho tests are shown in Table 3. For all seasons, all the p-values of the Mann-Kendall test applied to the flow series ...
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... Six works performed searches in the INPE database, three of them for the Atlantic Forest area and three for the Cerrado biome. The basins varied in size, with the smallest having an area of 105 km 2 [84], 1980 km 2 [59], and 3852 km 2 [32]. ...
Hydrological models are used to assess natural and man-made changes in watersheds worldwide. Proper input data collection and handling are essential to reduce simulation uncertainty. Thus, this study reviews the sources of physical and hydroclimatic data, used in the last 5 years, from 55 articles that applied the SWAT model in Brazil. Most studies took place in the Atlantic Forest biome (20), followed by Cerrado (14), Amazon (11), and Caatinga (10). Worth noting that there are no studies published in the Pantanal and Pampa biomes. National databases (INPE, INMET, EMPRAPA, and ANA) are the most used in data acquisition process, followed by regional databases, more applied in smaller basins. Global databases are more sought after in studies of large basins due to their low spatial resolution. National climate data have low spatial density and are only available in five states at the regional level, so satellite data and reanalysis are viable alternatives in regions with little climate monitoring. Future research directions include (1) evaluating and comparing available data, (2) using high-resolution imagery to map land use in small catchments, (3) expanding the model’s database of vegetation parameters to cover all classes identified in high-resolution images, (4) create a database at regional level in the states, (5) develop software to manage hydroclimatic information, and (6) continuously monitor the quality of water bodies.
... These transformations, observed in various Brazilian regions, result from the interaction with climate variability (Amorim et al. 2022;Chagas et al. 2022;Collischonn et al. 2001;Ferreira et al. 2023), changes in land cover (Batistella and Valladares 2009;Chagas and Chaffe 2018;da Silva et al. 2024;Salazar et al. 2015;Spera et al. 2016) and the construction of large hydroelectric reservoirs (Leli et al. 2023;Panta et al. 2023;Stevaux et al. 2009). In this context, statistical methods (Mann-Kendall test, Spearman RHO test and Pettitt test) are applied to assess abrupt changes in hydroclimatic data (dos Santos et al. 2020b;Ferraz et al. 2021;Ferreira et al. 2020;Hussain et al. 2021;Salehi et al. 2020;Tamagnone et al. 2019;Teixeira et al. 2020). The results indicate that urbanization, demographic growth, and the expansion of agricultural areas are the main factors for alterations in the statistical behaviors of hydroclimatic series. ...
The intensification of water resource usage, correlated with changes in land use and cover as well as climate variability, has led to significant alterations in the hydrological cycle, impacting water availability in basins. This study assesses hydrological trends in the section of the Janeiro River basin located in the Brazilian savannah (Cerrado biome), focusing on the influence of anthropogenic activities and climate variability between 1985 and 2017. Using precipitation, actual evapotranspiration, streamflow, land use and cover, and water use authorization data, we applied statistical tests (Mann–Kendall, Sen's slope, Pettitt, and RHO Spearman) to identify trends, abrupt changes, and correlations. The results show a decreasing trend in average and minimum flows, with reductions of 30 to 40%, respectively, compared to the historical series average, not attributable to significant changes in precipitation but rather to an expansion of agricultural areas and an intensification of water consumption for irrigation. There was a reduction from 76.5% to the sum of Natural and Forest Formation areas and an increase of 71.1% in Agricultural areas. The correlation between land use changes and streamflows suggests that the conversion of natural vegetation into agricultural lands is directly associated with the decline in water availability. This study highlights the need for sustainable planning and management of water resources, considering the seasonality of water availability and agricultural demands, to mitigate the negative impacts on the hydrological cycle and ensure water sustainability in the Brazilian savannah region.
... In doing so, they followed their internal instructions, but also the recommendations of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). To ensure the homogeneity of the data, the Mann-Kendall (MK) and Pettitt tests, a non-parametric method often used to detect change points in time series data (Ferraz et al. 2022) was applied. The Pettitt test is particularly useful for detecting shifts in median values and thus assessing the consistency of hydrological data over time (Kocsis et al. 2020). ...
Hydrological drought poses significant challenges to water resources, ecosystems, and human activities, necessitating comprehensive investigation. Monthly streamflow data from 12 monitoring stations across the Sava River basin were utilized to compute the streamflow drought index (SDI). The Mann–Kendall test evaluated trends, and the SDI's hydrological states were classified based on cumulative streamflow volumes. The study identified an alarming 83.3% of stations exhibiting statistically significant decreases in summer streamflow, indicating a widespread and concerning trend of declining water availability in the Sava River basin. Drought severity was particularly pronounced in tributaries such as the Vrbas and Bosna rivers, emphasizing the heterogeneous nature of hydrological changes. These findings underscore the urgent need for adaptive water resource management strategies in the face of escalating hydrological drought risks, especially given the far-reaching consequences on agriculture, industry, ecosystems, and social well-being. The study provides crucial insights for developing targeted resilience measures tailored to the specific challenges presented by the diverse hydrological conditions in the Sava River basin.
... This region is part of one of the largest agricultural frontiers in Brazil, accounting for a large part of Brazilian grain production. However, even though expansion of agricultural land has shaped the region's landscapes in recent decades (Ferraz et al., 2021b), the environmental consequences of these transformations in the Correntina River basin are still poorly evaluated. Due to intense agricultural development, the basin is susceptible to several environmental impacts, such as increased risks of erosion, predatory water use, and soil and water contamination (Grecchi et al., 2014;Parris, 2011.). ...
... The temperature ranges from 17 • C to 35 • C, and average annual precipitation is approximately 1100 mm. The region has typical Cerrado vegetation, with areas of natural vegetation divided between forest, savanna and grassland (Ferraz et al., 2021b). ...
... The intense advance of agribusiness has caused several environmental and social impacts, especially on the Cerrado water resources. These impacts have generated serious conflicts over water use, intensified by increasingly frequent water shortages (Ferraz et al., 2022). Episodes such as "The Water War" highlight the critical scenario of conflicts between the population and agribusiness over the use of water resources, a situation occurring in the western region of the State of Bahia, one of the largest agricultural frontiers in Brazil (Porto-Gonçalves and Chaves, 2018). ...
... The land use maps of the 1990s, 2000s and 2015 were used (Souza et al., 2020) for calibration and validation for the different periods, due to being the median year of the calibration and validation periods defined. The strategy of separating calibration and validation into shorter time periods was adopted to increase the representativeness of the simulation, since land use plays an important factor in the response of water resources (Heo et al., 2015) and the region under study displays considerable variations in land cover from 1980 to the present day (Ferraz et al., 2022), observing the decline of natural areas and the advance of anthropic influence surfaces (Fig. 4). The areas identified by MapBiomas for the region and their respective compatibility with the SWAT model database were Forest Formations (FRSD), Savannah Formations (RNGB), Field Formations (RNGE), Pasture (PAST), Agriculture (AGRR) and Urban Areas (URBN). ...
... Multiperiod calibration using different land use and cover maps enables drainage to be represented closer to reality (Fig. 7) since variations in the landscape were significant in the area under study (Ferraz et al., 2022). However, there are differences between some maximum values where the model could not represent extreme events well, as was especially evident in period 1. ...
... Land use maps were obtained from the MapBiomas Project Collection 6 (2022) project (Souza et al. 2020) based on 30 m resolution Landsat images. This product has been used for land use trend analysis in many locations over Brazil (Serrão et al. 2021(Serrão et al. , 2022Ferraz et al. 2021) from 1985 to 2015. Agriculture areas in each basin were used to link the impacts caused by anthropogenic activities in the hydrological regime of the basins. ...
This study quantified hydrological impacts caused by climate and anthropogenic changes in nine basins in the Upper Grande River Basin (URGB) region and estimated potential future impacts on runoff based on climate model projections. The Budyko framework was used as a conceptual approach to estimate the causes of runoff variation by the decomposition method. Assuming that land use will not change in future, the runoff was estimated for 2006–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2099 time-slices using regionalized projections from four different climate models. The decomposition method indicated a strong influence of both climate and land-use changes in the hydrological regime in the URGB, with the expansion of the agricultural areas being the most important driver of anthropogenic impacts. Future climate projection multi-model ensembles indicated a reduction in average runoff. The Budyko framework performance on future projections presented similar trends to hydrological modeling estimations from previous studies in the same region, indicating the suitability of the method as an additional tool for assessing future climate change impacts on water availability.
Reconciling environmental conservation with growing demands for food, water, and energy is a global challenge. Brazil, a major agricultural producer, grapples with deforestation’s environmental costs. The Araguaia River basin, vital for Brazil’s economic growth, undergoes significant land use changes. Assessing data from 1987 to 2019, we studied annual water surface variations, considering deforestation, agriculture, livestock farming land, and central pivot irrigation, and historical water flow series from 1980 to 2020 from 21 monitoring stations. We observed notable reductions in flooded areas (angular coefficients from 130 a 2,276 ha/year) and water flow the entire basin (b = − 13.84; t = − 4.8; P < 0.001) and its regions (Upper Araguaia: b = − 3.32; t = − 4.5; P < 0.001; Middle Araguaia: b = − 8.70; t = − 4.8; P < 0.001; Lower Araguaia: b = − 45.49, t = − 4.7; P < 0.001) over recent years. Water flow reductions persist year-round, with a marked decrease during low water periods (F3,8 = 8.82; P = 0,006), aligning with heightened water demand for intensive agriculture. Tributaries and the main channel show similar reduction processes (t = 0.16; g.l. = 19; P = 0.873). Ensuring the basin’s ecological flow is imperative for the aquatic ecosystem’s minimum requirements.
