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In this study, the results of a new survey on attitudes and preferences towards electric
vehicles are reported. In addition, these results are compared with those of a similar survey conducted in 2012, so that the evolution of preferences towards electric cars by European drivers can be mapped.
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Context 1
... Figure 4 displays national statistics for car ownership and household characteristics. Inspection of the sample data and available national statistics, statistical tests and a sense check across the selection of countries suggests, on the basis of the indicator 'cars per household', that the samples drawn from the national panels are typical of conditions applying to each of the MS surveyed. ...
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Citations
... The reasons for this are many, varied, and can be found in the barriers perceived by users (Biresselioglu, Demirbag Kaplan and Yilmaz, 2018;Kumar and Alok, 2020). First, these include vehicle-related factors, such as higher acquisition costs (Abotalebi, Scott and Ferguson, 2019), lower ranges (Degirmenci and Breitner, 2017), or lower model diversity (Gómez et al., 2017) compared to conventional vehicles. In addition to the vehicle factors, the expansion state of the charging infrastructure is seen as a barrier by potential users or buyers (Gómez et al., 2017). ...
... First, these include vehicle-related factors, such as higher acquisition costs (Abotalebi, Scott and Ferguson, 2019), lower ranges (Degirmenci and Breitner, 2017), or lower model diversity (Gómez et al., 2017) compared to conventional vehicles. In addition to the vehicle factors, the expansion state of the charging infrastructure is seen as a barrier by potential users or buyers (Gómez et al., 2017). The perception of the availability of public charging infrastructure is positively related to the willingness to buy (Giansoldati, Danielis, Rotaris and Scorrano, 2018;Schulz and Rode, 2022). ...
To slow climate change down, a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is crucial. Part of the solution could be the electrification of cars, but market penetration is progressing slowly so far. It is still unclear to what extent specific user groups, e.g., without private parking/charging space, are willing to buy BEV in the long term. The present study is a first step to holistically measure the existing findings on perceived barriers in terms of their importance and to transfer them into a vehicle ownership model. In a two-stage approach, potential factors influencing the purchase decision were first ranked (MaxDiff), followed by a focus on some of the most relevant factors and a more precise measurement in decision simulations (ACBC). Even though this study is only an intermediate step towards a holistic model, the results show that building charging infrastructure is important for the purchase decision but not a panacea, as vehicle parameters such as range or acquisition costs are equally or more important. Furthermore, it becomes evident that a dependence on public charging infrastructure alone is seen more negatively for the purchase of an e-vehicle than the use of gas stations for vehicles with combustion engines, which leads to the conclusion that market penetration among users without the possibility of charging at home or at work will be slow or even non-existent given the current state of technology.
... In 2017, the JRC conducted a stated preference survey (a follow-up of a survey in 2012) among 1 248 European car owners to investigate the evolution of consumer attitudes and preferences towards low-and zero-emission power-train technologies (Gómez Vilchez et al., 2017). When asked about their next purchase, almost half of the sample decided against an electric or fuel cell car. ...
... Analysis of the NPFs (European Commission, 2019b) shows that 26 MS provided targets for publicly accessible recharging points for 2020 and that electricity is the preferred alternative fuel in most MS. Figure 19 shows the current supply of recharging points and EVs in different EU MS. Figure 19: Supply of recharging points and EVs across Europe Source: Tsakalidis and Thiel (2018) Year The existence of a sufficient and reliable recharging infrastructure is one of the main elements required for an electrified transport system as it increases people's confidence that BEVs will reliably meet their travel needs and helps to reduce range anxiety. In this context, it has been observed that the lack of available recharging infrastructure has been one of the main reasons affecting user acceptance of EVs (Gómez Vilchez et al., 2017). For consumers to experience mobility seamlessly, the infrastructure needs to be digitally connected, and consumers should have access to timely and reliable information about the location and availability of recharging points. ...
... The new European CO 2 targets for passenger cars set an ambitious 37.5 % reduction of CO 2 emissions in 2030 compared to 2020 levels -this cannot be achieved without a significant market share of PHEVs, BEVs and FCEVs. This will be possible thanks to a significant reduction in the vehicle price expected in the coming years (Gómez Vilchez et al., 2017;Arbib and Seba, 2017) and to the wide availability of recharging points for users (European Parliament and Council of the European Union, 2014). ...
The increasing efficiency of the transport system during the last 100 hundred years has fuelled and sustained the unprecedent economic growth of our society. It has shaped our livestyles and influenced the development of our cities and town. At the same time it has posed several challenges to our world as the provision of transport opportunities has heavily contribuitred to the depletion of natural resources, pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, etc. Road transport in particular has had a major role into this. Several policies have been introduced during the last 50 years in the attempt to limit the impact of the transport system, but they have been effective only to a certain extent. During the last years, however, new technologies and social trends are promising to disrupt the transport system and make it substantially more efficient and more sustanable. The present paper discusses the possibile environmental impacts of some of the new technologies applied to transport, in particular highlighting how its complexity may jeopardize the possible improvements that the new technologies promise without properly governing their use.
... This article makes use of data from a stated preference survey carried out in 2017 to understand the factors that influence users' car type choice in Europe. Such a study is reported in [32], where the generation of the survey is thoroughly explained, along with its structure and objectives. There were in total more than 1200 respondents from six European countries-France (200), Germany (200), Italy (248), Poland (200), Spain (200) and the United Kingdom (200). ...
... Example of stated preference question. Based on[33] with data from[32]. ...
... Input parameters used for testing ANN model. Based on[32]. ...
This paper presents an artificial neural network (ANN) model that simulates user’s choice of electric or internal combustion engine automotive vehicles based on basic vehicle attributes (purchase price, range, operating cost, taxes due to emissions, time to refuel/recharge and vehicle price depreciation), with the objective of analyzing user behavior and creating a model that can be used to support policymaking. The ANN was trained using stated preference data from a survey carried out in six European countries, taking into account petrol, diesel and battery electric automotive vehicle attributes. Model results show that the electric vehicle parameters (especially purchase cost, range and recharge times), as well as the purchase cost of internal combustion engine vehicles, have the most influence on consumers’ vehicle choices. A graphical interface was created for the model, to make it easier to understand the interactions between different attributes and their impacts on consumer choices and thus help policy decisions.
... Again, others state that the charging infrastructure is also of major importance. Rohr et al. (2017) for example focused on the evaluation of two surveys in France, Germany, Italy, the UK, Poland, and Spain in 2012 and 2016. The key hurdle for the acquisition of EVs identified was the high price compared to common fossil engines. ...
To meet current targets for greenhouse gas emissions in Europe, emissions, especially those originating from the road transport sector, need to be reduced. Plans are to achieve this goal by substituting fossil fuel vehicles with electric vehicles (EVs). This article first discusses conceptually the impact of an increasing share of EVs on the electricity grid and suitable locations for charging stations with examples from a Case Study in Lower Bavaria. Secondly, the impact of purchase subsidies on EV purchases in Germany, a high-income country characterized by an important automotive industry and an increasing share of private vehicles is examined. To achieve this, yearly information on EV purchases were analyzed by applying the Synthetic Control Method. Combining data from different sources including the European Alternative Fuels Observatory, Eurostat, and the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association, an overall picture was developed. Results indicate a difference between private, semi-public, and public charging infrastructures. Its spatial distribution does not correspond to a specific development strategy. Moreover, EV subsidies have a limited effect in Germany when controlling for market size. Limiting the discussion to a trade-off between subsidizing infrastructures or EV purchases obviates the multidimensionality of the problem as neither of them may be sufficient to accelerate the transition per se. Furthermore, if electricity provided for EVs comes mainly from fossil carriers, the changes in the road transport sector will not yield the expected emission reductions. The transition towards renewables is directly intertwined with the effects of EVs on emission reductions in the road transport sector.
... Within the TCO, the purchase price and depreciation costs are still dominant for EVs [10,50]. A key improvement needs to come from reducing the costs of batteries. ...
Electric vehicles (EVs) have been around for more than a hundred years. Nevertheless, their deployment has not been a sustainable success up until now. Many scientists, engineers and policymakers argue that EVs are a promising, maybe even indispensable option to achieve ambitious decarbonization goals, if powered by electricity from renewable energy sources. At the moment, the EVs market is gaining a lot of momentum and we may be near the point of no return for a sustained mass market deployment of electric vehicles. Many papers exist that describe future prospects of EVs. In our commentary we try to provide a bigger picture view and look at market and societal aspects. We analyze why previous generations of EVs were not successful and how current electric vehicles could become a sustainable success. We perform a semi-quantitative Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats (SWOT) analysis and find that current electric vehicle designs are technologically on par with or better than conventional alternatives. Car buyers go electric when the economics make sense to them. We conclude that incentives are needed for electric vehicles until battery costs lower-as much as to allow EVs to become cheaper-from a total cost of ownership (TCO) perspective, than other alternatives. Other policy measures are needed to overcome remaining barriers, especially in supporting the setup and operation of publicly accessible recharging points to overcome range anxiety. EVs in isolation may not be the next mobility killer app. The real next mobility killer app may emerge as an autonomous shared EV in a world where the border between public and private transport will cease to exist. The findings of our commentary are relevant for scientists, policymakers and industry.
... The aforementioned characteristics are related to vehicle development, apart from the last one that is related to the supporting infrastructure. The latter has a key role for prospective PEV customers since sufficient and reliable recharging infrastructure increases confidence that Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) will reliably meet their travel needs and help reduce range anxiety, a factor affecting user acceptance of PEVs [4,5]. This paper focuses on the role of infrastructure in electric passenger car uptake in Europe. ...
... The real-driving energy consumption was found approximately 38% higher than the type-approved, while the energy consumed was considerably dependent on the ambient temperature. Gómez Vilchez et al. (2017) [4] quantified the factors influencing people's car type choices in Europe, with the results proving that lack of recharging infrastructure is one of the main reasons for buyers not choosing PEVs and highlighting the need for related policies supporting transport electrification. ...
... The real-driving energy consumption was found approximately 38% higher than the type-approved, while the energy consumed was considerably dependent on the ambient temperature. Gómez Vilchez et al. (2017) [4] quantified the factors influencing people's car type choices in Europe, with the results proving that lack of recharging infrastructure is one of the main reasons for buyers not choosing PEVs and highlighting the need for related policies supporting transport electrification. ...
Plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) can be a main lever towards a decarbonised road transport
system. The PEV market uptake needs to be nurtured by appropriate support measures for users, for technological advances related to the vehicle and its components, and for all relevant recharging infrastructure deployment. This paper focuses on the role of PEV recharging infrastructure for electric passenger car uptake in Europe. It examines the status of road transport electrification, relevant policies, incentives and national plans. We find that the status and plans of PEV and recharging infrastructure and the corresponding support measures vary significantly between countries. The PEV share in the various analysed countries ranged in 2017 from 0.01% to 5.49% and is estimated to reach values between 0.05% and 12.71% in 2020. The corresponding ratio of PEV per one publicly accessible recharging point ranged between 1 and 60 and is estimated to vary between 3 and 161 in 2020. Diverging plans could lead to market fragmentation in the European Union (EU) and impede the EU-wide circulation of PEVs. The appropriate level of recharging infrastructure should be determined to both support PEV deployment and to prevent sunk investments. Different country experiences vis-à-vis PEV and infrastructure support could be useful to identify best practices.
... The objective of our work is to provide evidence on and quantify the factors that influence the European market for zero-and low-emission car technologies. This paper builds upon Gómez Vilchez et al. [5] and Rohr et al. [6]. Whereas [5] focused on describing the survey (see Section 3.1) and illustrating the representativeness of the sample; [6] introduced the statistical model estimated and willingness-to-pay values. ...
... This paper builds upon Gómez Vilchez et al. [5] and Rohr et al. [6]. Whereas [5] focused on describing the survey (see Section 3.1) and illustrating the representativeness of the sample; [6] introduced the statistical model estimated and willingness-to-pay values. Thus, the present article complements these papers and deviates from them by showing remaining results that were not reported previously. ...
... Thus the survey is not representative of the whole population. Instead, it exhibits a reasonable degree of representativeness of car-owning households (see Section 2.2 in [5] for a discussion on sample representativeness, where data of the countries' populations and survey samples are compared). In terms of education, the sample from France, Poland and Spain contained higher proportions of respondents who only had primary school education (or less). ...
The deployment of zero-emission vehicles has the potential to drastically reduce air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions from road transport. The purpose of this study is to provide evidence on, and quantify the factors that influence, the European market for electric and fuel cell car technologies. The paper reports the results of a stated preference survey among 1,248 car owners in France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the United Kingdom. The variables that influence powertrain choice are quantified in a nested multinomial logit model. We find that the electric car purchase price continues to be a major deterrent to sales in the surveyed countries. The majority of the respondents considered government incentives as fundamental or important for considering an electric car purchase. Because of the differences in the socio-economic characteristics of consumers in each country, the effectiveness of government incentives may vary across Europe.
... There is also room for simplifying the behavioral assumptions related to how probable it is that consumers will choose each powertrain. An update of PTTMAM is ongoing to reduce the set of alternatives and improve the users' powertrain choice by incorporating the results of a survey conducted among European car drivers (see [30]). ...
The importance of electric car purchase incentives is starting to be questioned. The objective of this paper is to explore the potential effect of reducing or removing electric car purchase public subsidies in the European Union. To this end, the system dynamics Powertrain Technology Transition Market Agent Model is used. The size and timing of purchase incentives for this technology in European countries are investigated under eight scenarios and sensitivity analysis performed. The simulations suggest that, in the short-run, the electric car market share is higher when the subsidies remain in place. In the medium-run, a purchase subsidy scheme granting €3000 for plug-in hybrid electric cars and €4000 for battery electric cars over the period 2020–2024 yields the fastest electric car market uptake of all the scenarios considered. We conclude that, though the current evolution of the battery price is favorable, electric car purchase subsidies remain an effective policy measure to support electro-mobility in the next years.
... In 2017, the JRC conducted a stated preference survey (a follow-up of a survey in 2012) among 1 248 European car owners to investigate the evolution of consumer attitudes and preferences towards low-and zero-emission power-train technologies (Gómez Vilchez et al., 2017). When asked about their next purchase, almost half of the sample decided against an electric or fuel cell car. ...
... Analysis of the NPFs (European Commission, 2019b) shows that 26 MS provided targets for publicly accessible recharging points for 2020 and that electricity is the preferred alternative fuel in most MS. Figure 19 shows the current supply of recharging points and EVs in different EU MS. Figure 19: Supply of recharging points and EVs across Europe Source: Tsakalidis and Thiel (2018) Year The existence of a sufficient and reliable recharging infrastructure is one of the main elements required for an electrified transport system as it increases people's confidence that BEVs will reliably meet their travel needs and helps to reduce range anxiety. In this context, it has been observed that the lack of available recharging infrastructure has been one of the main reasons affecting user acceptance of EVs (Gómez Vilchez et al., 2017). For consumers to experience mobility seamlessly, the infrastructure needs to be digitally connected, and consumers should have access to timely and reliable information about the location and availability of recharging points. ...
... The new European CO 2 targets for passenger cars set an ambitious 37.5 % reduction of CO 2 emissions in 2030 compared to 2020 levels -this cannot be achieved without a significant market share of PHEVs, BEVs and FCEVs. This will be possible thanks to a significant reduction in the vehicle price expected in the coming years (Gómez Vilchez et al., 2017;Arbib and Seba, 2017) and to the wide availability of recharging points for users (European Parliament and Council of the European Union, 2014). ...
A perfect storm of new technologies and new business models is transforming not only our vehicles, but everything about how we get around, and how we live our lives.
The JRC report “The future of road transport - Implications of automated, connected, low-carbon and shared mobility” looks at some main enablers of the transformation of road transport, such as data governance, infrastructures, communication technologies and cybersecurity, and legislation. It discusses the potential impacts on the economy, employment and skills, energy use and emissions, the sustainability of raw materials, democracy, privacy and social fairness, as well as on the urban context.
It shows how the massive changes on the horizon represent an opportunity to move towards a transport system that is more efficient, safer, less polluting and more accessible to larger parts of society than the current one centred on car ownership. However, new transport technologies, on their own, won't spontaneously make our lives better without upgrading our transport systems and policies to the 21st century. The improvement of governance and the development of innovative mobility solutions will be crucial to ensure that the future of transport is cleaner and more equitable than its car-centred present.
... This is consistent with a recent survey of consumer in six EU member states (that represent more than 78% of new car sales in the EU in 2016), where Gómez Vilchez et al. (2017) have shown that the respond- ents' perceptions of the purchase and operating costs of electric cars has evolved positively since 2012. ...
The new Belgian CAr Stock MOdel, which is linked to the national transport demand model PLANET, is structured as follows: (a) The total desired car stock in each future year is a function of the country's population and GDP per capita. (b) The probability that a car is scrapped is modelled as a function of its age and accumulated mileage. The desired car stock is then confronted with the remaining car stock to determine total car purchases. (c) Total sales are allocated to individual emission classes, using the parameter values of a Stated Preference discrete choice model. The model is then calibrated in order to reflect the current market and policy context in Belgium (d) The results are mapped into an inventory that is aggregated according to the EURO emission class. (e) In order to represent that the non-price barriers to electrified cars will decrease over time, we have implemented an alternative approach where the perceived acquisition costs decrease over time. Alternatively, this approach can be used to explore what would be the required decrease in subjective costs to reach a given future market share.
