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1. Calculated variations in insolation from the sun based on the Milankowitch theory. It includes variations in Earth orbit and angle changes in earth axis. The figure shows past and future variations at 65 degrees north (Berger and Loutre 2002).  

1. Calculated variations in insolation from the sun based on the Milankowitch theory. It includes variations in Earth orbit and angle changes in earth axis. The figure shows past and future variations at 65 degrees north (Berger and Loutre 2002).  

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Glacier mass balance is heavily influenced by climate, with responses of individual glaciers to various climate parameters varying greatly. In northern Sweden, Rabots Glaciär’s mass balance has decreased since it started being monitored in 1982. To relate Rabots Glaciär’s mass balance to changes in climate, the sensitivity to a range of parameters...

Citations

... Geophysical surveys on sub marine landand rock slides and on alpine glaciers The future climate evolution and the impact it might have on a repository for radioactive waste is important when assessing the longterm safety. In a project funded by SSM (Holmlund et al. 2016), bathymetric data from the Southern Quark area between Sweden and Åland, provided by the Swedish Maritime Administration, were analysed, as well as terrestrial data from a glacial morphological mapping campaign. A broad range of landforms could be observed in these data and the overall glacial morphology pointed towards a powerful glacial impact involving an abundance of meltwater. ...
... This study examined the bottom conditions in the Southern Quark, with a particular focus on indications from the previous study by Holmlund et al. (2016) on submarine mass wasting. Furthermore, in order to increase the understanding of the underlying processes that have shaped the glacial traces observed in the Southern Quark area, a study were performed on present glaciers in northern Sweden. ...
... The important question is how big the impact could be. In a project funded by SSM (Holmlund et al. 2016), bathymetric data from the Southern Quark area between Sweden and Åland, provided by the Swedish Maritime Administration, were analyzed, as well as terrestrial data from a glacial morphological mapping campaign. A broad range of landforms could be observed in these data and the overall glacial morphology pointed towards a powerful glacial impact involving an abundance of meltwater. ...
Technical Report
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The future climate evolution and the impact it might have on a repository for radioactive waste is important when assessing the long-term safety. In a project funded by SSM (Holmlund et al. 2016), bathymetric data from the Southern Quark area between Sweden and Åland, provided by the Swedish Maritime Administration, were analysed, as well as terrestrial data from a glacial morphological mapping campaign. A broad range of landforms could be observed in these data and the overall glacial morphology pointed towards a powerful glacial impact involving an abundance of meltwater. Traces of mass wasting on the bottom of the deep trough through the Southern Quark were found. The genesis, timing and size of these deposits are important to resolve in order to assess their potential impact on nuclear facilities in the Forsmark area. This study examined the bottom conditions in the Southern Quark, with a particular focus on indications from the previous study by Holmlund et al. (2016) on submarine mass wasting. Furthermore, in order to increase the understanding of the underlying processes that have shaped the glacial traces observed in the Southern Quark area, a study were performed on present glaciers in northern Sweden.
... The impacts of climate change on high-latitude alpine lake environments and associated hydrological, biological and chemical processes are therefore expected to be especially noticeable (Smol et al., 2005;Karlsson et al., 2010;Rosqvist et al., 2013;Arp et al., 2015, Lundin et al., 2015Bring et al., 2016). In response to changing climatic factors, including the currently observed retreat of glaciers in Sweden (Holmlund et al., 2016;Williams et al., 2016;Holmlund and Holmlund, 2019) but encompassing also potential glacial advances, ice contact lakes may become ice distal lakes and vice versa. Evidence of glacial fluctuations, on contemporary timescales as well as on those preceding the period of direct observational and instrumental records, may be preserved in the geomorphological and sedimentological record held at the lakefloor (Karlén, 1976;Van Rensbergen et al., 1998;Bennett et al., 2000;Evans, 2003;Røthe et al., 2015;Fitzsimons and Howarth, 2018). ...
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In Arctic alpine regions, glacio‐lacustrine environments respond sensitively to variations in climate conditions, impacting, for example,glacier extent and rendering former ice‐contact lakes into ice distal lakes and vice versa. Lakefloors may hold morphological records of past glacier extent, but remoteness and long periods of ice cover on such lakes make acquisition of high‐resolution bathymetric datasets challenging. Lake Tarfala and Kebnepakte Glacier, located in the Kebnekaise mountains, northern Sweden, comprise a small, dynamic glacio‐lacustrine system holding a climate archive that is not well studied. Using an autonomous surface vessel, a high‐resolution bathymetric dataset for Lake Tarfala was acquired in 2016, from which previously undiscovered end moraines and a potential grounding line feature were identified. For Kebnepakte Glacier, structure‐from‐motion photogrammetry was used to reconstruct its shape from photographs taken in 1910 and 1945. Combining these methods connects the glacial landform record identified at the lakefloor with the centennial‐scale dynamic behaviour of Kebnepakte Glacier. During its maximum 20th century extent, attained c. 1910, Kebnepakte Glacier reached far into Lake Tarfala, but had retreated onto land by 1945, at an average of 7.9 m year –1.
... Rabots glaciär, five kilometres west of Storglaciären, is estimated to have lost 30% of its volume during the period 1910-2003 based on area-volume relationships (Björnsson 1981;Brugger et al. 2005). Mikkaglaciären in Sarek, 65 km south west, experienced a 24% volume loss in the period 1960-2008 (Holmlund et al. 2016), and was considerably larger in the 1910s (Holmlund 1986). Kårsaglaciären, 50 km north, had a more extreme loss of 87% of its volume from 1926 to 2010 (Williams et al. 2016), illustrating the variation in volume change in the Swedish mountain range, and further motivating the use of more early 1900s data. ...
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Geodetic volume estimates of Storglaciären in Sweden suggest a 28% loss in total ice mass between 1910 and 2015. Terrestrial photographs from 1910 of Tarfala valley, where Storglaciären is situated, allow for an accurate reconstruction of the glacier's surface using Structure-from-Motion photogrammetry, which we used for past volume and mass estimations. The glacier's yearly mass balance gradient and net mass balance was also estimated back to 1880 using weather data from Karesuando, 170 km north-east of Storglaciären, through neural network regression. These combined reconstructions provide a continuous mass change series between the end of the Little Ice Age and 1946, when field data become available. The resultant reconstruction suggests a state close to equilibrium between 1880 and the 1910s, followed by drastic melt until the 1970s, constituting 76% of the 1910–2015 ice loss. More favourable conditions subsequently stabilized the mass balance until the late 1990s, after which Storglaciären started losing mass again. The 1910 reconstruction allows for a more accurate mass change series than previous estimates, and the methodology can be used on other glaciers where early photographic material exists.
... Rabots glaciär, five km west of Storglaciären, is estimated to have lost 30% of its volume from 1910-2003 based on area-volume relationships (Björnsson, 1981;Brugger et al., 2005). Mikkaglaciären in Sarek, 65 km south west, experienced a 24% volume loss in the shorter period of 1960-2008 (Holmlund et al., 2016), and was considerably larger in the 1910s (Holmlund, 1986). Kårsaglaciären, 50 km north, had a more extreme loss of 87% of its volume from 1926-2010 (Williams et al., 2016), exemplifying the variation of change in the Swedish mountain range, and further motivating the use of more early 1900s data. ...
Thesis
Full-text available
Geodetic estimates of Storglaciären in Sweden suggest a 23% loss of its total ice mass between 1910 and 2015. Extensive photographic material since late 1800s exist from Tarfaladalen, the valley where Storglaciären is situated , and terrestrial photographs from 1910 allow for an accurate reconstruction of the glacier's surface using Structure-from-Motion photogrammetry. This 1910 glacier surface was then compared with elevation data from 2015, together with additional aerial surveys from intermediate years, to produce a reliable series of its changes in volume and mass. The glacier's yearly mass balance gradient and net balance was also estimated back to 1880 using weather data from Karesuando, 170 km north east of Storglaciären, through neural network regression, a form of Machine Learning. With these components, a continuous mass change series since the end of the Little Ice Age is shown, using photogrammetrical estimates as constraints in mass, together with field measured mass balance data beginning in 1946. The resultant mass balance reconstruction suggests a state close to equilibrium between 1880 and the 1910s. After this supposedly stable period, the years 1920-1970 displayed a drastic loss of ice, with 80% of the mass loss seen in 1910-2015 occurring over those years. A subsequent stabilisation of the glacier's mass balance then occurred until late 1990s, probably due to increasing winter precipitation and a more favourable basal topography setting, before Storglaciären started losing mass again. The 135 year long estimated mass balance series, constrained using photogrammetrical volume and mass measurements, provides a clear representation of the glacier's changes occurring over the last century. The results can suggestively be used to predict the changes of other glaciers nearby, and the method be applied in more localities containing historic photographic and mass balance data.
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