Calculated and Actual Values of the Number of Murders in the Russian Federation in 2011  

Calculated and Actual Values of the Number of Murders in the Russian Federation in 2011  

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The paper gives the results of scientific research, which, being based on probabilistic and statistical modeling, identifies the relationship of certain socio-economic factors and the number of people killed in road accidents in the Russian Federation regions. It notes the identity of processes in various fields, in which there is loss of life. Sci...

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The design speed is one of the fundamental characteristics that defines many technical requirements to an urban street as an engineering structure. Changed traffic conditions in the major cities of the Russian Federation, including the growth of motorization, continuing processes of formation of agglomeration zones, development of theoretical appro...

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... It should be noted that the accident rates in the statistical databases are presented for a long-term period, which in general allows us to assess the dynamics of changes in the indicators under consideration in the country and draw a conclusion about the effectiveness of the measures taken in the field of road safety. Over the years, a large number of studies in this area are based on these indicators [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11], which consider various approaches to assessing both the number of incidents and the injured and injured in them. Within the framework of this article, a study was made of accident rates in Russia for the period 2015-2022. ...
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When working with accident rates, a specialist has to spend quite a lot of time to establish the main places of accidents, certain conditions in which they occurred, which is extremely necessary when determining measures aimed at reducing road accidents. As a result of the research, the authors processed a large amount of data - accident rates for 2015-2021, as a result of which certain dependencies were established between the considered indicators in relative data, which made it possible to develop a probabilistic model for calculating the necessary data with the ability to determine the required conditions. Based on the results obtained, the authors developed an algorithm, according to which procedures were determined when working with accident rates and an assessment of efficiency based on the calculation of the error was carried out. The results obtained allowed us to conclude that the developed probabilistic model and algorithm are effective, in view of the minimum error.
... Strength characteristics of covering of roadway depends on the "flexural bowl", that is, the maximum allowable deflection value, as well as it depends on the amount of applied load during the period of weakening of covering of roadway [2,4,5]. During the operation of the highway, all deformations firstly proceed in a latent form, so it is difficult to recognize and anticipate their development. ...
... Test units of foreign practice such as Dynatest 8000 FWD (measurement by deflection analysis of weight deflected), 8000 VMD (deflectometer installs in a camper van or а minibus); 8081 HWD (measurement of elastic vibrations under the influence of a large weight load) satisfies the required conditions. The conditions: amplitude and duration of effort are identical to the impact of a heavy moving wheel load and high accuracy of deformation measurements [1,2,4,6,11,12,13]. General technical characteristics with the main components of the complex and the test results are shown in Figure 3 Using of automated measuring, analytical and control engineering support and equipment (deflectometer with software) on site allows determining the level of deformation caused by a controlled load with the highest accuracy, inaccessible to other existing methods. ...
... The main advantage of Dynatest dynamic impact unit is that during the correlation process the impact on the values of peak loads and elastic vibrations from possible undesirable components of high frequency in the load cycle can be minimized. The Dynatest unit monitors the temperature on the surface of roadway, in the upper layers and the surrounding environment [4,8,9]. ...
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The article presents diagnostic possibilities for testing covering of roadway through dynamic and static loading units. The article presents features, advantages and principal characteristics of the equipment: die unit, Dina-3M, UDN-NK, Dynatest unit. The main parameters of the dynamic impact units. The article also presents results of tests by dynamic and static loading, defines «flexural bowls», elastic module and the coefficients of reduction of the elastic modulus to the static modulus.
... -new information on the specific ways in which the driver (D) changes vehicle (V) steering safety; discovery of reasons behind traffic safety violations (Evtjukov and Repin, 2015;Evtiukov et al., 2018); -a scientific and educational approach to determining vehicle (V) service life; developed optimization algorithms for the vehicle (V) maintenance and repair system (Domke and Zhestkova, 2011;Kapitanov et al., 2018); -results of studying the transport and operating conditions of roads (R), including the determination of a dynamic pattern in braking and adhesion characteristics of vehicle (V) wheels on the road surface at the stage of road operation and reconstruction (Brannolte et al., 2017;Novikov et al., 2019); -methods of analyzing RTA and creating RTA models for the purpose of RTS improvement (Brannolte et al., 2017;Evtjukov and Repin, 2015;Kurakina, 2014); -guidelines for conducting RTA expert analysis and improving the assessment methods and methods of examining vehicles involved in RTAs (including the technical condition of the vehicle (V) and road (R)), RTA BS study insights and suggestions for efficient RTS assurance (Evtyukov and Vasilyev, 2012;Kurakina, 2014Kurakina, , 2018Kurakina et al., 2018, Novikov et al., 2019Rajczyk et al., 2018). ...
... -new information on the specific ways in which the driver (D) changes vehicle (V) steering safety; discovery of reasons behind traffic safety violations (Evtjukov and Repin, 2015;Evtiukov et al., 2018); -a scientific and educational approach to determining vehicle (V) service life; developed optimization algorithms for the vehicle (V) maintenance and repair system (Domke and Zhestkova, 2011;Kapitanov et al., 2018); -results of studying the transport and operating conditions of roads (R), including the determination of a dynamic pattern in braking and adhesion characteristics of vehicle (V) wheels on the road surface at the stage of road operation and reconstruction (Brannolte et al., 2017;Novikov et al., 2019); -methods of analyzing RTA and creating RTA models for the purpose of RTS improvement (Brannolte et al., 2017;Evtjukov and Repin, 2015;Kurakina, 2014); -guidelines for conducting RTA expert analysis and improving the assessment methods and methods of examining vehicles involved in RTAs (including the technical condition of the vehicle (V) and road (R)), RTA BS study insights and suggestions for efficient RTS assurance (Evtyukov and Vasilyev, 2012;Kurakina, 2014Kurakina, , 2018Kurakina et al., 2018, Novikov et al., 2019Rajczyk et al., 2018). ...
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... However, no one even tries to count how many accidents and, moreover, emergency situations occur due to aggressive or dangerous driving [6][7][8]. Aggressive driving style is manifested as follows: ...
... − results of studying the transport and operating conditions of roads, including the determination of a dynamic pattern in braking and adhesion characteristics of vehicle wheels on the road surface at the stage of road operation and reconstruction (Brannolte et al., 2017;Domke and Zhetskova, 2011); − modeling of the mortality rate as a result of road accidents, considering the road factor and with regard to roads of regional significance (Vrubel et al., 2006); − results of studies aimed at reducing the number of jams and controlling the capacity of highways with account for the geometry of roads (Domke and Zhetskova, 2011); − results of studies on transport and pedestrian traffic management. Some researchers laid the groundwork for the use of special traffic lights increasing the efficiency of coordinated traffic management (Evtiukov et al., 2017;Kravchenko, 2013); − method of road accident reconstruction with account for the technical condition of a vehicle and road environment; results of analyzing accident clusters with the development of efficient traffic safety measures (Kravchenko and Oleshchenko, 2017;Kurakina, 2018;Kurakina et al., 2018;Rajczyk et al., 2018). ...
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... • results of studies on the road service quality, including the determination of a dynamic pattern in braking and adhesion characteristics of vehicle wheels on the road surface at the stage of road operation and reconstruction (Brannolte et al. 2017, Novikov et al. 2019); ...
... • improvement of vehicle RTS on the basis of accident risk analysis and RTA simulation (Brannolte et al. 2017, Kurakina et al. 2017, Novikov et al. 2019); ...
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The systemic approach described in the article is designed for the development of an effective approach and purposeful measures to ensure road traffic safety. The need for a systemic approach to auditing road traffic accident black spots is justified. A conceptual model of the systemic approach to auditing road traffic accident black spots is developed. This model includes interrelations of subsystems, factors of accident-prone situations, causes of the emergence of road traffic accident black spots in the system “road user – vehicle – road – external environment”. A hierarchy of interrelations and flows in the system ensuring road traffic safety is suggested. The authors suggest considering the “Road User – Vehicle – Road – External Environment” system that includes such subsystems as the Driver (D), Pedestrian (P), Child Pedestrian (PC), Vehicle Passenger (PassV), Child Passenger (PassVC). They also suggest using the traditional term “Car subsystem” as the Vehicle (V). To account for the entire content of the “external environment” (EE) subsystem, the following structure is suggested: road infrastructure (RI) reflecting the conditions and parameters of traffic management as well as existing weather and climatic conditions. The systemic approach to auditing road traffic accident black spots reveals the potential of improving this mechanism.
... To build the model, the factors are broken down into three groups -socio-economic, administrative, and others. We used an algorithm of building the main components described in the paper (Kapitanov et al. 2017(Kapitanov et al. , 2020. ...
... As to the list of socio-economic indicators, the main components look as follows (Kapitanov et al. 2017, 2020, Silyanov 2020): ...
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This paper sets forth the findings of the research on the traffic accident rate in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, based upon respective regional statistical data for the four-year period from 2015 to 2018. In order to achieve the goal of the research — to identify the main factors affecting the accident rate, — the methods of correlation and regression analysis were used. We obtained regression equations relating the main indicators of the accident rate to the most relevant factors. The quality of the regression equations is characterized by means of the coefficients of correlation between actual and estimated values of the number of RTAs (road traffic accidents), the number of RTA fatalities and injuries. We assessed the role of each factor under consideration by means of confidence estimates and confidence probabilities, and determined factors that have both a positive and a negative influence on the accident rate.
... Their purpose is to deliver and remove granulated construction materials and waste, and while carrying out this task, they may travel long distances through the city's street and road network, sometimes even venturing out into suburban areas. The situation becomes particularly challenging during the rush hour, when an extremely dense and intense traffic flow leaves or enters the city (Brannolte et al. 2017). If the rules of transporting granulated materials are violated under these conditions, this creates a tangible threat of an accident involving a dump truck . ...
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This paper reviews how the technical transport traffic density impacts the safety of the overall urban traffic near road construction and repair sites. We demonstrate that there is a correlation between the load capacity of the dump trucks that are used in construction, the cost of construction, and traffic safety along the granular construction materials’ transportation route. We propose a safety evaluation for the traffic flow that includes construction dump trucks, based on the route safety index. We also develop a methodology for rationalizing the preferable load capacity of dump trucks as part of an excavation and transportation machine fleet operating in an urban environment, accounting for the traffic safety along their routes. Our study includes a practical example of using our methodology, based on road repair works at a specific site in Saint Petersburg.
... And this has several positive aspects. First of all, it would be safer for the wider public (Nikolaev et al., 2016a(Nikolaev et al., , 2016b(Nikolaev et al., , 2017Chubukov et al., 2017b). Secondly, it would improve the vehicle efficiency. ...
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For the last 15 years, the assessment of consumer properties of products at the automobile market has been considering multimedia system specifics instead of dynamic properties or design safety. Is this new global trend anomalous or is this another step towards autonomous control? To answer this question, the authors analyzed the evolutionary development of automobile control systems where adaptation, automation and synthesis were defined as three primary trends. The authors determined several stages of technical and man-made adaptation. Some associated issues are formulated, in particular, an inverse effect of implementing vehicles with automatic control.
... During the study, approaches of social audit were used, which included the following (Chubukov et al., 2017a(Chubukov et al., , 2017b: To compare the efficiency of measures in the field of ensuring regional children's safety in traffic (i.e. to conduct a performance audit) and determine the degree of risk in the region, an equation (model) correlating the population size and the number of vehicles in a constituent entity of the Russian Federation with the number of minors killed in road accidents (see Figure 1). ...
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Nowadays, deaths and injuries of people in road accidents represent an important issue of global healthcare. In the Russian Federation, main causes of death and disability among people of various age include road accident injuries. Such injuries are also high on the list of factors which affected the significant number of severe accidents and their consequences. The vast majority (95.7%) of those accidents occurred in cities and villages. Nearly two-thirds (61.2%) of the total number of minors (pedestrians) who became victims of road accidents were constituted by students of secondary schools at the age of 7–14. Road accident injuries in children can be prevented with the help of active forms of teaching to behave safely on roads of inhabited localities.