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![CO 2 concentration for various SRES climate change scenarios [IPCC, 2007].](profile/Arpad-Rozsas/publication/296147907/figure/fig2/AS:669431344685066@1536616278453/CO-2-concentration-for-various-SRES-climate-change-scenarios-IPCC-2007.png)
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Due to mainly human activity in the following decades we are facing increasing mean global temperature and rising CO 2 concentration. This paper investigates the effect of these changing environmental parameters on the durability of concrete structures. We restrict our attention to the examination of carbonation process and to environmental data ap...
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Context 1
... a reference concentration level (reference 2000) is chosen which represent the CO 2 level in 2000 on which the current experiences and standards are roughly based. The predicted global atmospheric CO 2 concentrations corresponding to the selected scenarios are depicted in Figure 2. The shaded areas show the ±σ range considering lower, medium and higher carbon cycle feedbacks. ...
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Citations
... The corrosion model and probabilistic description of basic variables provided by fib -the International Federation for Concrete Structures is adopted (CEB/fib, 2006). The corrosion model based on Fick's law of diffusion was extended by the authors to the case of time-varying CO 2 concentration (Rózsás and Kovács, 2013b). Six SRES climate change scenarios are considered: three scenarios within the rapid economic growth family A1: the A1FI (fossil intensive), A1T (predominantly non-fossil), and A1B (balanced) scenarios, and additionally the A2 (regionally oriented economic), B1 (global environmental sustainability), and B2 (local environmental sustainability) scenarios (IPCC, 2007) with probabilistic representation of CO 2 level, number of rainy days, and relative humidity. ...
Climate change affects not only the natural but also the built environment. The latter comprises large part of societal wealth, and it is a crucial component of developed economies. The focus of this paper is the quantitative assessment of the reliability of load bearing structures in changing climate. Despite its significance, relatively few quantitative studies are available on this topic, and particularly the Carpathian Region has been analyzed insufficiently. Therefore, the aim of this paper is (i) to present two quantitative studies on structures and climate change for the Carpathian Region, and (ii) to give an overview about approaches in civil engineering in relation to climate sciences, thus to trigger and facilitate future cooperation. The first part of the study is about the carbonation-induced corrosion of reinforced concrete structures analyzed considering six climate change scenarios. The results show that the depassivation probability can double from the beginning to the end of the 21st century. For structures executed in 2000, the effects will be subtle within the first half of the century, whilst the considerable changes are expected in the other 50 years. The second part of the study is about ground snow load and its effect on structural failure probability. It focuses on probabilistic models and statistical uncertainties, and draws attention to the significance of uncertainties arising from the insufficient number of observations. These uncertainties are typically neglected in current civil engineering practice, and they are especially important for climate change, for which the historical observations are not representative of the future environment. Bayesian statistical approach is used to handle these uncertainties. The analyses show that statistical uncertainties can have several order of magnitude effect on failure probability, thus their neglect is not justified. Additionally, long-term trends in historical snow observations are analyzed using stationary and nonstationary generalized extreme value distributions. Statistically significant decreasing trends (p < 10%) are found for numerous locations, but they are practically significant only for a few in respect of structural reliability. The results of both studies indicate that climate change can have significant practical consequences on structures and should be considered by civil engineering profession. Revision of design standards and further research in cooperation with meteorologist seem to be needed to explore and reduce the impacts of climate change on load bearing structures in the Carpathian Region.
... The above model can only approximately consider the time-varying CO 2 concentration since it provides a point-in-time estimation of carbonation. To overcome this issue the carbonation depth is determined by numerically solving the governing differential equation of diffusion while using the described CEB-fib model [5]. ...
The costs related to corrosion are immense and they are expected to rise in the following decades due to human induced climate change. This paper examines a slice of this problem: the carbonation process-which is the most common corrosion type of concrete structures-in the light of climate change. Since current durability specifications are prevalently based on historical data, experience and do not consider the effect of climate change, there is a pressing need to assess the reliability of them. For this purpose full-probabilistic, time-dependent reliability analyses are performed utilizing Monte Carlo simulation technique. According to the recommendations of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change multiple future scenarios are used to assess the effects of altering climate. The calculations indicate that the carbonation depth could increase by 21% compared to constant CO 2 level of year 2000 as a reference. The risk of depassivation for structures built per Eurocode and the superseded Hungarian bridge standard (ÚT) may increase by 115% and 55% respectively up to the end of the century, due to rising CO 2 level. The findings reinforce that the effects of climate change should be reflected in the standards and the revision of current durability specifications is required.
