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Box plots of the balance indices of food and feed items in eastern regions of China. The gray area represents the interval between −0.05 and 0.05
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Achieving food and feed self-sufficiency is important for both China and the world. While China's food self-sufficiency has been examined at the national and provincial levels, few studies consider lower administrative levels or different food and feed items. This study quantifies self-sufficiency in the eastern regions of China and examines correl...
Citations
... Some scholars have conducted food self-sufficiency research at small regional scales [17]. Li et al. quantifies self-sufficiency in the eastern regions of China and showed that most areas could achieve self-sufficiency in grains, vegetables, and meat, but milk and soybeans were extremely scarce [26]. Wang et al. ...
Food security is the foundation of sustainable human development, and the balance between food supply and demand in urban areas is highly important for promoting residents’ health and the sustainable development of cities. This paper takes the Urumqi Metropolitan Area (UMA), a typical oasis urban area, as the study area and uses the food production—demand gap indicator to assess the balance of food production and consumption in the region from 2000 to 2020 and projects food demand in 2030–2060. The results show, first, that residents’ food consumption is characterized by high carbohydrate, protein, and fat consumption, and that this put more pressure on food production. Second, different food consumption structures will have different impacts on food production, and the local food production capacity in UMA falls short of ensuring a balanced nutritional structure for residents. Third, food demand increases significantly in 2030–2060, and the pressure of population consumption structure on food production is much greater than that of population growth. Considering the environmental effects of food transportation and the loss of food nutrients, on the production side, the construction of the UMA should be accelerated by including Qitai County and Jimsar County in the UMA’s planning scope, strengthening city—regional connections, and improving the local food production and supply capacity of surrounding areas. On the consumption side, regional dietary guidelines should be developed based on local dietary culture and agricultural production conditions to help guide residents to adjust their dietary structures, thereby alleviating pressure on local food demand. Such measures are crucial for ensuring sufficient food supply and promoting balanced nutrition among the population.
... However, one of the main threats to soil health that reduces land production is soil salinization [2]. In light of consumer preferences for diets that require more resources [3,4], China must effectively utilize its foodproducing land, particularly the coastal saline cropland ecosystems that are progressively becoming more significant in maintaining food security. The degree of soil salinization may have an impact on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from cropland ecosystems [5]. ...
Coastal saline cropland ecosystems are becoming increasingly vital for food security in China, driven by the decline in arable land and the growing demand for resource-intensive diets. Although developing and utilizing saline land can boost productivity, it also impacts greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study uses the Yellow River Delta as a case study to analyze the spatial-temporal patterns of carbon footprints in saline croplands from 2001 to 2020 and their correlations with climate factors, cropland management scale, and agricultural mechanization. The results reveal that agricultural production in this region is characterized by high inputs, emissions,
and outputs, with carbon emission efficiency improving significantly due to a
reduction in net carbon emissions. Major sources of carbon emissions include electricity, chemical nitrogen fertilizers, nitrogen input, and straw return, which together account for 65.06% of total emissions. Based on these findings, three key principles have been proposed for policy recommendations to enhance carbon emission efficiency. First, adopt tailored strategies for regions with different salinization levels. Second, strengthen cropland drainage infrastructure to mitigate the adverse effects of heavy rainfall. Third, expand the scale of cropland management through land transfers and promote agricultural mechanization. These insights offer valuable guidance for mitigating GHG emissions in coastal saline cropland ecosystems.
... However, up to this point, research has mostly looked at country/nation-level food supply and self-sufficiency. Only a very few studies have focused on local/regional food self-sufficiency (See [1,5,24,28,29]). Data availability for regional studies is less than on the national level since regions are part of a political and institutional framework that is both national and supra-national. ...
Background
Analysis of food self-sufficiency at the regional level helps to better understand its dependency on, and vulnerability to, the food system. Moreover, achieving food self-sufficiency has gained prominence in the present policy agenda to increase resilience to adverse events and lower food resource footprint. Using a novel method, we estimated the food balance sheets of Scotland, the second-largest region in the United Kingdom, and assessed the self-sufficiency of major food commodities for the first time.
Methods
Data from 2003 to 2019 were obtained from Economic Reports on Scottish Agriculture and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA)’s family food statistics. Food import and export data are not readily available for Scotland. Therefore, we developed a consumption-based approach to estimate the net trade values of each commodity. We also assessed the contribution of domestic production toward nutrient security.
Results
According to our estimates, Scotland is a net exporter of beef, exporting an average of 51.3 thousand tons per year. It is also a net exporter of cereal (wheat, barley, oats) and potatoes, although this was not always the case between 2003 and 2019. Scotland has a strong level of self-sufficiency in cereals, potatoes, lamb, beef, dairy, and eggs. However, there is room for improvement in achieving self-sufficiency in poultry and pork, where the self-sufficiency ratio is relatively low. Our analysis of nutrient security indicates that wheat and dairy sourced from Scotland play crucial roles in the food supply chain, markedly influencing total energy, dietary protein, and primary dietary fat sources.
Conclusions
Our assessment can serve as a foundation for evidence-based decision-making in Scotland's agricultural and food policy. It offers insights into where investments and support may be needed to enhance domestic production and promote a resilient and sustainable food system. Estimated self-sufficiency ratios provide a more accurate assessment of the extent of food localization in Scotland. The method we developed in this study has the potential to be a valuable tool for future research studies, allowing for the estimation of regional-level food self-sufficiency even when trade data and food balance sheets are unavailable.
... Consequently, a serious spatial mismatch exists between milk production and population distribution worldwide (Johnson, 1976;Herrero et al., 2013). For example, in China, which has a complex and diverse climate, only 3.8 % of 261 study regions located in southeast China can satisfy the demand for fresh milk (Li et al., 2021). Modern cold chain transportation can to some content overcome this critical issue, but it can lead to high market prices for fresh milk sales (Wang and Zhao, 2021). ...
climate regions. Fully-enclosed dairy farms act as a promising option while its economic and environmental performance is poorly studied. Here, we evaluated the potential of improvement on milk yield and milk supply inequality among regions by developing fully-enclosed dairy farms throughout China, as well as their economic feasibility and environmental impacts. Results showed that: (1) fully-enclosed dairy farms present a 33 % higher milk yield per lactating cow together with a 38 % lower coefficient of variation in milk production across climate regions than semi-enclosed ones; (2) greenhouse gas and NH 3 emissions of fully-enclosed dairy farms are effectively declined compared with semi-enclosed ones; (3) the inequality in fresh milk supply can be reduced by 51 % through strategically locating fully-enclosed dairy farms around cities; and (4) industrial optimization on the internal structure of fully-enclosed dairy farms is economically feasible across different climate regions in China, with an average improvement of 54 %. Our analysis suggests to develop fully-enclosed dairy farms surrounding urban areas for meeting milk demand alongside positive effects on environmental sustainability, which also offers a lens for the livestock sector to define better policies that improve the sustainability of milk production on the planet.
... First, the demand for animalsourced food in China, the largest emergent economy in the world, is gradually increasing, and the livestock quantity is also increasing, along with rising incomes and rapid urbanization (Bai et al., 2018;Huang and Tian, 2019;Lei and Shimokawa, 2020). Second, previous studies showed that more than 90% of the eastern regions of China produce more meat than the quantity needed based on healthy diet recommendations (Li et al., 2021a); also, 70.1% of adults in China exceeded the appropriate level of meat consumption (Lei and Shimokawa, 2020). Third, more than 80% of the total eastern regions of China have livestock manure N surplus (Li et al., 2022). ...
... In order to quantitatively analyze the effect of reducing the livestock quantity while considering the dual objectives of minimizing environmental impact and ensuring self-sufficiency in animal-sourced food, we used the theoretical framework introduced by Li et al. (2022), specifically considering the concepts of meat-optimal and manure-optimal livestock quantity. In addition to this, we involved the concepts of meat balance index and manure balance index using the definition provided by Li et al. (2021a). Scenarios are then defined and their outputs were measured and compared in terms of balance indices at different spatial scales. ...
... To quantitatively analyze the degree of meat self-sufficiency and manure N surplus in different scenarios, we used the balance index (BI) (Li et al., 2021a): ...
... On the one hand, according to national statistical data (NBS, 2021), from 1978 to 2020, crop production increased by 55% for rice, 149% for wheat, 366% for maize, and 159% for soybean, and China had been able to avoid hunger . On the other hand, referring to healthy dietary guidelines, food production and demand were unbalanced in the eastern regions of China; >90% of the regions could satisfy vegetable and meat demands, while the regions able to satisfy milk demand were lower than 5% (Li et al., 2021a). Although the uneven distribution of food items production is not a problem per se for food security, increasing self-sufficiency at the local level increases resilience to any disruption that might occur (for example the COVID crisis or an increase in the transportation price). ...
... In 2017, the arable land per capita ranged from 2.97 × 10 -4 ha ‧ person -1 to 6.91 × 10 -1 ha ‧ person − 1 in these regions, the population density ranged from 6.78 persons ‧ km − 2 to 6448.60 persons ‧ km -2 , and the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) per capita ranged from 18,134-177,033 Yuan ‧ person − 1 (average value: 51,379 Yuan ‧ person -1 ). Detailed information on these study regions is provided by Li et al. (2021a). ...
... To quantitatively analyse the levels of food and feed self-sufficiency and manure N surplus in region j, we used the Balance Index (BI j ) defined by Li et al. (2021a): ...
CONTEXT
As the largest emerging economy globally, China is facing crop-livestock disconnection, which causes unnecessary synthetic fertiliser use, local food and feed unsatisfied demand, and manure nitrogen (N) surplus.
OBJECTIVE
We investigated how crop-livestock regional integration combined with inter-regional transportation of food, feed, and manure, can contribute to food self-sufficiency of easter China (whole and regional level) while avoiding manure N excess. We also investigated how this could increase the local soybean production without harming the self-sufficiency of other food commodities.
METHODS
We proposed an optimisation model of integrated crop-livestock production in eastern China, including the production of food, feed, and livestock manure N in each region and the demand for food (according to healthy diet recommendations), feed and manure N. We optimised the supplier cost-benefit balance considering food and feed production, domestic transportation, and foreign trade, taking food and feed demand satisfaction and manure N surplus avoidance as constraints. This optimisation exercise was performed under different scenarios: optimisation without soybean subsidies (scenario O), optimisation with increasing soybean subsidies (scenario OS+). The two scenarios were compared with the baseline scenario B (non-optimised without soybean subsidies) using balance indices (BI, the gap between production and demand divided by demand) of food, feed, and manure N and transportation indices.
RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS
Results showed that, for the whole of eastern China, BI were positive for cereals (1.523), vegetables (2.789), meat (0.002), eggs (0.002), milk (0.102), and maize (0.244), and negative for manure N (−0.016) in scenario O. This indicated that most of the food and feed items except soybean were self-sufficient and manure N surplus was avoided after optimisation. Some regions lowered their self-sufficiency for some commodities. As soybean subsidies increased from 0 Yuan ‧ ton-1 to 6000 Yuan ‧ ton−1, the BI of soybeans increased by 66.37%.
SIGNIFICANCE
Our results suggested that crop and livestock can be integrated in China for an improved level of food self-sufficiency and manure N surplus avoidance. However, regional self-sufficiency could not be achieved in all regions for all items, and transportation is necessary. In particular, three strategies seem relevant for policy-making: (i) decreasing livestock quantity, for strengthening feed self-sufficiency and avoiding manure N surplus; (ii) increasing soybean production through subsidies; (iii) reducing regional-level self-sufficiency and increasing the transportation for meat and eggs, which would avoid manure N surplus in densely populated regions, while decreasing the maize transportation.
... Indeed, few countries can be fully sufficient in food production. Due to climatic conditions (Misra, 2014;Kogo et al., 2021), population density (Kalantari et al., 2020;Li et al., 2021), soil quality (Gupta, 2019;Lal, 2020) and other issues (Romeo et al., 2020), most countries are reliant on food supply chains of various length which typically cross state borders. ...
Responding to disruptive events is important to maintain supply chain viability. It is of the utmost importance to maintain functioning of agrifood supply chains as they provide essential goods for maintaining the population. However, there is a diverse pool of possible strategies to ensure the viability of agribusiness and agrifood supply chains. This paper seeks to identify the most relevant strategies for ensuring agrifood supply chain viability amid disruptive events. The case of Lithuania is analysed with a focus on the sustainability of the whole agri-food supply chain. Expert interviews involving farmers, associations, public sector representatives and academia are carried out to identify an effective policy path. Innovation, cooperation, diversification and knowledge-building are assessed as the candidate strategy options.
... Due to accelerated urbanization during the past half-century, under the trend of globalization, the PRD has become an MCR, in which the population and its density have dramatically increased, and large areas of agricultural land have been converted into built-up urban areas [32,38]. The PRD-MCR, as it has a high population density and less agricultural land, faces the most difficult challenges with regard to regional food system sustainability compared to those of other regions [39,40]. ...
... Compared to the evaluation of all agricultural land types as a whole, significant differences were observed in the self-sufficiency levels of the three different agricultural land types in the PRD; however, self-sufficiency cannot be achieved from arable land and water body production, while it is achieved in the horticultural regions, which, due to the surplus, also have the capacity for food exports. Our research results share similarities with the findings of Li et al. [40] in analyzing food self-sufficiency in eastern China-that is, one region could be self-sufficient in one food commodity but not another. Along with their findings, we point out the importance of distinguishing between different types of agricultural land for estimating self-sufficiency and the substantive insights that it provides for self-sufficiency estimation at the regional level. ...
... Certain initiatives can be undertaken to improve regional self-sufficiency to achieve a more sustainable and resilient food system. According to Li et al. [40], the agricultural land in the PRD is typically characterized by small, fragmented farms, fields, and non-flat fields. In recent years, some local governments have introduced a series of policies to reduce the fragmentation of arable land and have attempted to increase the amount of arable land and its quality. ...
Food self-sufficiency has long been regarded as essential for understanding and managing urban and regional food systems; however, few studies have examined the food self-sufficiency of megacity regions within a comprehensive framework that distinguishes different types of agricultural land (i.e., arable land, horticultural landscapes, and waters). To fill these gaps, we took the Pearl River Delta as a case study and quantified the foodsheds of different types of agricultural land by calculating the land footprint of food consumption. On this basis, food self-sufficiency is defined as the ratio of available and required agricultural area for regional food demand. The results indicated that the self-sufficiency level provided by the arable land in the Pearl River Delta is low and cannot realize self-sufficiency at the regional and urban levels. The horticultural landscapes can provide self-sufficiency at the regional level, whereas the regions with water cannot, as their foodsheds extend over the boundary of the Pearl River Delta. For arable land, establishing a localized regional food system requires expanding the foodshed size. These findings provide evidence that megacity regions may face increasing difficulties in achieving self-sufficiency in the near future. This research can improve policymakers' understanding of the sustainability and resilience of regional food systems in megacity regions.
... The positive projections of China's food security often underestimated the rising demand for meats and feed grains [39]. Although many studies have assessed food security in China from different perspectives and methods and have provided useful general quantitative and qualitative results, few studies focus on feed grains and meats [45]. There are some studies examine the production and consumption of feed grains from a specific point in time, lacking a comprehensive analysis of the long-term supply and demand dynamics and future projections [12]. ...
... Achieve feed grain security and meat security holds significance for China. feed grains play a crucial role in meat production, and achieving self-sufficiency in meat is mostly contingent upon availability of feed grains [45]. Quantitative and detailed assessment of feed grains and meat security, as well as production challenges and experiences are necessary, which also provide a comprehensive understanding of the key issue related to the overall food security. ...
... Especially after 2000, it accelerated and was significantly higher than before. A similar trend can Table 2 Pillars and indicators of the food security index [45,51]. Measure the capability of agricultural production and food supply, assess a region's expose to the nature risks affecting food production and provision Natural hazard ...
... Based on China's agricultural resource endowment, dietary structure, and dietary habits, China's food security strategy is to ensure "the absolute security of staple foods and the basic selfsufficiency of grains" (Niu et al., 2021;State Council Information Office of the People's Republic of China, 2019). Therefore, grain self-sufficiency, grain cultivation, and grain processing are highly emphasized in China (Cao et al., 2021;Chen et al., 2011;Hang, 2021;Li, Sun, et al., 2021;Niu et al., 2022). Thus, this study focused on China's food processing industry mainly including flour, rice, oil, feed, and other cereal derivative food using data from "Statistics of Grain and Oil Processing Industry". ...
Faced with the pressure of slowing industrial growth and industrial transformation requirements, it is crucial to analyze the changes and the corresponding driving factors of the food processing industry in China. An analysis using traditional and spatial shift‐share models was conducted to decompose the changes in the food processing industry in each region of China from 2009 to 2019 into five effects: national growth effect (NG), industrial mix effect (IM), competitive effect (CE), neighbor‐nation competitive effect (NNC), and region‐neighbor competitive effect (RNC). Among the five effects from 2009 to 2019, the NG contributed the most to the growth in most regions, indicating that the development of the food processing industry in China was greatly influenced by the industrial base and that China's food processing industry has entered a “growth bottleneck period.” During the period 2009–2014 to period 2014–2019, compared to the IM and CE, the influence of spatial spillover effects was stronger and significantly enhanced. Moreover, the IM, CE, NNC, and RNC in most southern regions were stronger than those in most northern regions. Therefore, China's food processing industry needs and is transforming into high‐quality development. It is necessary to innovate the mode of development of food processing industry and strengthen interregional exchanges and cooperation. An analysis using traditional and spatial shift‐share models was conducted to decompose the changes in food processing industry in each region of China from 2009 to 2019 into five effects. This study found that from 2009 to 2019, the output value growth of the food processing industry in most regions of China was most affected by the industrial base, followed by the spatial spillover effect, and the least by the industrial structure.
