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Background
To put COVID-19 patients into hospital timely, the clinical diagnosis had been implemented in Wuhan in the early epidemic. Here we compared the epidemiological characteristics of laboratory-confirmed and clinically diagnosed cases with COVID-19 in Wuhan.
Methods
Demographics, case severity and outcomes of 29,886 confirmed cases and 21,9...
Contexts in source publication
Context 1
... COVID-19 was classified into mild type, moderate type, severe type as well as critical type according to disease severity, the detailed classification criteria were shown in Supplementary Table S1. The date of onset was defined as the day when the symptom was observed. ...Context 2
... epidemiological curves of clinically diagnosed cases were similar to that of confirmed cases, the peak of COVID-19 onset occurred between the Wuhan lockdown and February 8 ( Fig. 1). The baseline characteristics of cases were shown in Table 1. The sex ratio of confirmed cases and clinically diagnosed cases were 1.0 and 0.9, and the age distribution and occupation distribution of the two groups were similar ( Supplementary Fig. S1). ...Similar publications
Background
During the COVID-19 outbreak in Taiwan between May 11 and June 20, 2021, the observed fatality rate (FR) was 5.3%, higher than the global average at 2.1%. The high number of reported deaths suggests that hospital capacity was insufficient. However, many unexplained deaths were subsequently identified as cases, indicating that there were...
Citations
... By the investigation of Shi et al. (2021), at the beginning of January 1, 2020, there were at least 133 COVID-19 patients in Wuhan. In this paper, January 1, 2020 is selected as the initial time of numerical simulation, and the initial number of infected people is 133 at the initial time. ...
... We now determine the infection rate function β(a). Based upon the data from China Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the data in Shi et al. (2021) for the confirmed cases in Wuhan from January 1 to January 20, 2020 (divided by onset time), we show in Appendix Table 4 the age distribution of confirmed cases. Then the infection rate function β(a) is fitted from data on the daily incidence of infection per average initial case, where the case data, the distribution of the permanent population, the numbers of days of infection and the numbers of initial infected persons are used. ...
... See Tables 4 and 5. (Shi et al. 2021) and the total number of confirmed cases from January 1 to January 20 ...
Rational allocation of limited vaccine resources is one of the key issues in the prevention and control of emerging infectious diseases. An age-structured infectious disease model with limited vaccine resources is proposed to explore the optimal vaccination ages. The effective reproduction number Re of the epidemic disease is computed. It is shown that the reproduction number is the threshold value for eradicating disease in the sense that the disease-free steady state is globally stable if Re<1 and there exists a unique endemic equilibrium if Re>1. The effective reproduction number is used as an objective to minimize the disease spread risk. Using the epidemic data from the early spread of Wuhan, China and demographic data of Wuhan, we figure out the strategies to distribute the vaccine to the age groups to achieve the optimal vaccination effects. These analyses are helpful to the design of vaccination schedules for emerging infectious diseases.
... COVID-19 is a highly contagious respiratory disease with varying symptoms. According to the eighth edition of the COVID-19 Prevention and Control Plan, COVID-19 cases can be divided into mild, moderate, severe, and critical types (13). However, the symptoms at onset are relatively mild, and a significant proportion of patients do not display symptoms prior to the development of respiratory failure. ...
Introduction
In confronting the sudden COVID-19 epidemic, China and other countries have been under great pressure to block virus transmission and reduce fatalities. Converting large-scale public venues into makeshift hospitals is a popular response. This addresses the outbreak and can maintain smooth operation of a country or region's healthcare system during a pandemic. However, large makeshift hospitals, such as the Shanghai New International Expo Center (SNIEC) makeshift hospital, which was one of the largest makeshift hospitals in the world, face two major problems: Effective and precise transfer of patients and heterogeneity of the medical care teams.
Methods
To solve these problems, this study presents the medical practices of the SNIEC makeshift hospital in Shanghai, China. The experiences include constructing two groups, developing a medical management protocol, implementing a multi-dimensional management mode to screen patients, transferring them effectively, and achieving homogeneous quality of medical care. To evaluate the medical practice performance of the SNIEC makeshift hospital, 41,941 infected patients were retrospectively reviewed from March 31 to May 23, 2022. Multivariate logistic regression method and a tree-augmented naive (TAN) Bayesian network mode were used.
Results
We identified that the three most important variables were chronic disease, age, and type of cabin, with importance values of 0.63, 0.15, and 0.11, respectively. The constructed TAN Bayesian network model had good predictive values; the overall correct rates of the model-training dataset partition and test dataset partition were 99.19 and 99.05%, respectively, and the respective values for the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve were 0.939 and 0.957.
Conclusion
The medical practice in the SNIEC makeshift hospital was implemented well, had good medical care performance, and could be copied worldwide as a practical intervention to fight the epidemic in China and other developing countries.
... Mobile cabin hospitals help solve the issues of bed shortages and separate mild cases from serious ones (5). According to the clinical manifestations, COVID-19 cases can be divided into mild, moderate, severe, and critical types (6). Approximately 80% of the COVID-19 cases are of the mild or moderate types that do not require intensive care, and these patients are able to walk around by themselves. ...
The healthcare systems in China and globally have faced serious challenges during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. The shortage of beds in traditional hospitals has exacerbated the threat of COVID-19. To increase the number of available beds, China implemented a special public health measure of opening mobile cabin hospitals. Mobile cabin hospitals, also called Fangcang shelter hospitals, refer to large-scale public venues such as indoor stadiums and exhibition centers converted to temporary hospitals. This study is a mini review of the practice of mobile cabin hospitals in China. The first part is regarding emergency preparedness, including site selection, conversion, layout, and zoning before opening the hospital, and the second is on hospital management, including organization management, management of nosocomial infections, information technology support, and material supply. This review provides some practical recommendations for countries that need mobile cabin hospitals to relieve the pressure of the pandemic on the healthcare systems.
... A total of 26 studies assessed risk factors for death [11,23,24,26,27,29,33,34,[37][38][39][40][46][47][48]50,57,58,60,63,68,70,[72][73][74][75]. ...
Background
This study provides the first systematic review and meta-analysis to identify the predictors of unfavorable prognosis of COVID-19 in children and adolescents.
Methods
We searched literature databases until July 2021 for studies that investigated risk factors for unfavorable prognosis of children and adolescents with COVID-19. We used random-effects models to estimate the effect size with 95% confidence interval (CI).
Findings
We identified 56 studies comprising 79,104 individuals. Mortality was higher in patients with multisystem inflammatory syndrome (MIS-C) (odds ratio [OR]=58.00, 95% CI 6.39–526.79) and who were admitted to intensive care (OR=12.64, 95% CI 3.42–46.68). Acute respiratry distress syndrme (ARDS) (OR=29.54, 95% CI 12.69–68.78) and acute kidney injury (AKI) (OR=55.02, 95% CI 6.26–483.35) increased the odds to be admitted to intensive care; shortness of breath (OR=16.96, 95% CI 7.66–37.51) increased the need of respiratory support; and neurological diseases (OR=5.16, 95% CI 2.30–11.60), C-reactive protein (CRP) level ≥80 mg/L (OR=11.70, 95% CI 4.37–31.37) and D-dimer level ≥0.5ug/mL (OR=20.40, 95% CI 1.76–236.44) increased the odds of progression to severe or critical disease.
Interpretation
Congenital heart disease, chronic pulmonary disease, neurological diseases, obesity, MIS-C, shortness of breath, ARDS, AKI, gastrointestinal symptoms, elevated CRP and D-dimer are associated with unfavourable prognosis in children and adolescents with COVID-19.
... This result is in agreement to the findings of Mahmoud et al. [10] who estimated the fatality ratio to be 1.40 in Libya in a particular period of time. Shi et al. [11] in China reported the risk factors for death were older age, male, severe or critical cases. In Ecuador, Ortiz-Prado et al. [12] found the presence of comorbidities, being male and older than 65 years were important determinants of mortality. ...
Epidemiology of SARS-COV-2 and Emergence of UK Variant Zintan City of Libya
... Desde que el Síndrome Respiratorio Agudo Severo Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emergió a finales del 2019 en la provincia de Wuhan, China, este se extendió rápidamente por todo el mundo y fue declarado a los pocos meses por la OMS como pandemia y emergencia en salud pública (1,2). En Colombia se reportó el primer caso de la enfermedad el 6 de marzo del 2020, y a través del decreto 420 del 18 de marzo, se declaró el estado de emergencia sanitaria (3). ...
... Hasta el momento los estudios observacionales han intentado evaluar factores de riesgo para ingreso a unidad de cuidado intensivo (UCI) y/o tener una mayor mortalidad ante la enfermedad, encontrando por ejemplo que una mediana de edad mayor (>60 años), ser hombre, tener comorbilidades como la hipertensión arterial o la diabetes, son aquellos con un mayor riesgo de presentar estos desenlaces (1,5,6). El comité de asesoría nacional en inmunización de Canadá, realizó una revisión sistemática de la literatura con el fin de determinar los grupos poblacionales con un mayor riesgo y que debieran ser priorizados, encontrando resultados similares en el incremento de la probabilidad de hospitalización entre pacientes con obesidad grado III (IMC: >40), falla cardiaca, diabetes, ERC y demencia, mientras que aquellos pacientes mayores de 60 años tuvieron mayor riesgo de necesitar ventilación mecánica y presentar enfermedad severa (7). ...
Introducción: Hasta el momento el sobrepeso y la obesidad han sido descritos como factores de riesgo para infectarse, requerir hospitalización y morir por COVID-19. Sin embargo, la literatura no es siempre congruente con estos resultados.
Objetivo: Evaluar el impacto del IMC >25 kg/m2 en el ingreso hospitalario para el manejo de la enfermedad por COVID-19, en pacientes pertenecientes a un programa de riesgo cardiovascular en la ciudad de Cali, Colombia, durante el año 2020.
Métodos: A través de un estudio observacional analítico, se evaluó el riesgo de requerir hospitalización ante la infección por SARS-CoV2 en dos cohortes de pacientes pertenecientes a un programa de riesgo cardiovascular, incluyendo en el grupo expuesto sujetos con IMC >25 kg/m2. Se calculó el riesgo relativo y para evaluar posibles variables confusoras se utilizó el test de homogeneidad de Mantel-Haenszel.
Resultados: El IMC >25 Kg/m2 se encontró como un factor protector para el ingreso hospitalario (RR: 0.5; IC 95%: 0.30-0.80), sin identificarse modificación o confusión en el desenlace por otras variables clínicas como la edad >60 años, el sexo masculino, HTA, DM2 o la obesidad.
Conclusión: el IMC >25 kg/m2 se encontró como un factor protector para el ingreso hospitalario entre pacientes adultos pertenecientes a un programa de riesgo cardiovascular
Objectives
Early in the outbreak, to predict the final size of the COVID-19 outbreak in Dalian, Liaoning province, China, the finding can be used to provide a scientific reference for timely adjustment of prevention and control strategies.
Methods
Data from COVID-19 patients were collected from August 26 to September 14 2022. Early in the outbreak, a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Quarantine-Recovered (SEIQR) dynamics model with an epidemic amplifier effect, based on the basic model, was developed to fit the data and predict the final size of the COVID-19 outbreak in Dalian, Liaoning province, China. The mean absolute relative error(MARE), root mean squared error(RMSE) and mean absolute error(MAE) were used to assess the predictive capacity of the model.
Results
From 26 August to 14 September 2022, 1132 confirmed cases and infected asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 (558 males and 574 females) were reported in Dalian. There were two epidemic amplifiers in this outbreak, namely, T Market and H Hotel. The outbreak size predicted by the combined application of the SEIQR model with these two amplifiers is 1168.34 cases, and MARE, RMSE and MAE compared to the actual value from September 1 to 14 is 1.894%, 21.473 and 17.492 respectively According to the fitting results of the basic SEIQR model, if there was no epidemic amplifier in this outbreak, the final outbreak size was 349.96 cases, which means that the T Market and H Hotel increased 822 infections through amplification.
Conclusions
Early in the outbreak, it was effective and reliable to use the SEIQR transmission dynamics model with the amplifier effect to predict the final size of the COVID-19 outbreak in Dalian, Liaoning province, China, and the result can provide a theoretical basis for the early closing of the COVID-19 epidemic amplifier sites. Furthermore, the epidemic amplifier effect added to the model can solve the homogeneous mixing hypothesis problem that does not match the actual spread of infectious diseases but commonly used by researchers in the construction process of the dynamic model.
In a recent prominent study, Worobey et al. (2022. The Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan was the early epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic. Science, 377(6609), 951–959) purported to demonstrate statistically that the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market was the epicentre of the early COVID-19 epidemic. We show that this statistical conclusion is invalid on two grounds: (a) The assumption that a centroid of early case locations or another simply constructed point is the origin of an epidemic is unproved. (b) A Monte Carlo test used to conclude that no other location than the seafood market can be the origin is flawed. Hence, the question of the origin of the pandemic has not been answered by their statistical analysis.
More than 3 years have passed by since the COVID-19 pandemic was sparked by an outbreak of
the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the city of Wuhan, China sometime in late 2019; despite the scientific and
geopolitical importance of understanding how the pandemic began, the question remains unanswered, in
stark contrast to the earlier SARS & MERS outbreaks. Most of the focus in the origin debate has been
centered upon the Huanan Seafood Market in Jianghan District, where the earliest known major cluster of
cases emerged in early December 2020. As a result, a vast amount of published epidemiological research
has been ignored and an inordinate amount of attention and weight has been given to the pre-2020 set of
174 COVID-19 cases described within the China Annex2 of the World Health Organization’s origin
report published on March 31st, 2021. A careful analysis of the extant literature shows that the “official”
final case statistics differ in their geospatial distribution by approximately 10,710 – a massive shift that
artificially exaggerated the Huanan Market side of the Yangtze River, which separates the western side of
Wuhan from the east, where the Wuhan Institute of Virology resides.
Discrepancies between epidemiological data from the WHO COVID-19 Origins Report and
other published studies are dichotomous, with potentially major consequences for the COVID-19 origin investigation
