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Areas susceptible to permanent inundation in the Grefi and Gbegbeyise communities. 

Areas susceptible to permanent inundation in the Grefi and Gbegbeyise communities. 

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Conference Paper
Full-text available
Inundation and the episodic flooding caused by spring tide in low-lying coastal environments are expected to increase due to sea level rise caused by global warming. This development threatens both human settlement and natural habitats within such vulnerable areas. Sea level rise is a significant and growing danger to the coastal communities worldw...

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Context 1
... inundation caused by high waves and gradual inundation by sea level rise within the Dansoman coastal communities are expected to increase. This will move the shoreline inland and thereby submerge the coastal lands and properties. From Table 2, shoreline retreat under sea level rise scenarios with baseline from 1970 to 1990 average is likely to occur at the Panbros, Grefi and Gbegbeyise communities in the Dansoman coastal area of Accra. The shoreline for the best-case scenario could recede from 64.24 m in 2025, to 104.96 m in the 2050s, and up to 189.63 m by the year 2100 (refer to Table 2). In the worst-case scenario, there could be a shoreline recession of 151.75 m by the year 2075 and a major recession of 202.06 m by the year 2100. This corroborate the study by [7], which reported that between 200 m and 600 m of shoreline will be eroded by next 250 years under sea level rise scenarios in Accra in the worst case scenario. This implies that over 200 m of coastal land could be lost in the Accra by 2100. The trend of the shoreline recession scenarios displayed by the SimCLIM system depict greater recessional rate beyond the year 2050 both for the best case and the worst case. The projections do not include the additional extent of the periodic spring tides that occur in the area. This indicates that some areas beyond the 2100 simulated shoreline position are vulnerable to inundation. The flood period could affect wide areas of land which would also adversely affect a number of small scale industries, businesses, residents and the mangrove vegetation within the area. The coastal area can be described as an important ecological, industrial site and densely populated area that extends from Panbros to Gbegbeyise. On the whole, a relatively narrow coastal strip would be permanently inundated below the 2100 simulated shoreline position. However, flooding due to storms and high spring tides could periodically engulf a much greater area. Due to the highly populated nature of the coastal area of Dansoman as reported by [46], a large population and considerable private property and infrastructure will be potentially at risk to gradual inundation and high tidal waves. Figure 4 reveals the position of the shoreline for the years 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100 overlaid on an aerial photograph. The shoreline indicates the baseline from 2005. Figure 5 further shows the built up areas, mangrove vegetation spots and the beach areas at risk to gradual inundation of the coast. Under the A1F1 scenario (refer to Table 4) nearly 6.0 ha of vegetated land and approximately 25.0 ha of built up area are expected to be submerged due to inundation by the year 2050. This is however expected to increase considerably by the year 2100, where about 8.0 ha of vegetation land and 40.0 ha of the built up area would be submerged. High population densities are presently concentrated near the coastline at Grefi and Gbegbeyise. The housing structure of the local population in the area is made up of sandcrete buildings which are indiscriminately built along the coast. These are likely to be destroyed in the event of coastal inundation. If population density coupled with housing habit should keep on growing at the current trend in the area, the flood periods will pose a major disaster in the future and evacuation of vulnerable people would be difficult since the few routes separating the buildings would be choked up with ...
Context 2
... shoreline response to sea level rise based on the various scenarios is provided in Table 3 below. Figures 2 and 3 are the sea level projections based on CSIRO_MK2_GS A1F1 and the B2 emission scenarios. Figure 4 shows the simulated shoreline positions overlaid on aerial photographs to reveal the potential impact of flooding on the Dansoman coastal communities that are susceptible to permanent inundation in future using the various sea level rise projections. Figure 5 shows estimated settlement and vegetated areas susceptible to permanent inundation in the study ...

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