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Anonymized expert matrix for the Real-Time Delphi approach (futures and foresight). A total of 5 futures and foresight experts participated in both eDelphi stages. The expertise of these experts covered the following 6 cells in the matrix.
Source publication
Weak signals, the first signs of a potentially emerging issue that could disrupt current trends and megatrends, are hidden among disconnected pieces of information. Analyzing weak signals can help decision makers generate preparedness and a rapid-response capacity for possible systemic changes in the forest bioeconomy, where weak signals have not b...
Contexts in source publication
Context 1
... is typical in Delphi research, this study started by planning the selection of an expert panel. The selection of panel members involved the creation of two expert matrices: forest bioeconomy experts (Table 1) and futures research and foresight specialists ( Table 2). In the expert matrix, stakeholder categories are in the columns, and expertise is in the rows to outline the potential futures as comprehensively as possible. ...Context 2
... forest bioeconomy areas of expertise were (1) forests and forestry, (2) processing, refining, and products, and (3) markets and consumers (Table 1). The futures research and foresight column also had three areas of expertise: (1) societal/socio-cultural foresight, (2) technology foresight, and (3) creativity and imagination (Table 2). ...Context 3
... the expert matrices (Tables 1 & 2), the goal was to obtain sufficient information from the experts on the subject under investigation. Another goal was for the insights of futures and foresight specialists to help forest bioeconomy experts answer future-oriented questions more creatively. ...Context 4
... change Cross-sectoral Diversity Sustainability Number of references 5 3 2 2 3 Considering this summary and other information, what is the nature of weak signals in general? Second stage Question 5: What do you think what might be some key features and characteristics of weak signals in general? ...Citations
... Here, the process of identifying these signals was guided by a conceptual framework of key attributes and indicators for interpreting and evaluating signals (e.g. prevalence, novelty, probability of occurrence and perceived impact, adapted from van Veen and Ortt 2021; Nash et al. 2022;Mauno et al. 2023 ...
Essay 1: Foresight Visions: Embracing Community-led and Indigenous Perspectives
... Because little is known about the topic studied, the mode of selecting experts had to be adapted. Typically, Delphi methods would utilize a structured and pre-determined approach to selecting experts, e.g., via an expert matrix (Mauno et al., 2023;Rintamäki et al., 2016). However, this comparatively unexplored nature of the phenomenon studied rendered this approach not viable. ...
Highlights
• Analysis of the Latvian forest sector for transition to a knowledge-based bioeconomy.
• Identifying niche products with higher added value to promote the forest sector.
• SWOT/TOWS analysis of niche wood-based products and foresight of future scenarios.
• Methodology for policy and decision makers to analyse and develop strategic pathways for bioeconomy.
Subject. We investigate the current state of the timber industry complex of the Russian Federation. Objectives. The purpose is to identify and substantiate strategically important priorities for the development of the domestic timber industry, taking into account the current economic conditions and geopolitical situation. Methods. The study draws on methods of systems and comparative analysis. Results. The paper revealed the main trends and problems of the current stage of development of the domestic timber industry complex. We formulated practical recommendations to solve the problems of the timber industry development, in the face of sanctions pressure. Conclusions. The main priorities for further development of the timber industry complex should be entering to new markets, increasing sales of products in the Russian market, increasing the production of import-substituting products with high added value, modernizing the industry through the supply of equipment from friendly countries.
