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Aggregate Unemployment Rate
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This paper discusses the long run effect of changes in the age distribution of Spanish population on the unemployment rate, disaggregated by sex and age segments in the light of cointegration theory given the non stationarity of the series. Four main results are obtained. First, empirical analysis does not provide a clear scheme concerning the long...
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Citations
... In more specific terms, as soon as phase th j is entered at age x j , the worker begins a transition into the phase j +1 . When in jth phase, the worker is assumed to assign a (declining with age x ) share p x j i^` of his or her time to this phase (Eguía & Echevarría, 2004); the rest of the time, in an increasing share 1^p x j i is assigned to human capital accumulation requisite to access the next phase, j +1 (Eguía & Echevarría, 2004). Mathematically, ...
... In more specific terms, as soon as phase th j is entered at age x j , the worker begins a transition into the phase j +1 . When in jth phase, the worker is assumed to assign a (declining with age x ) share p x j i^` of his or her time to this phase (Eguía & Echevarría, 2004); the rest of the time, in an increasing share 1^p x j i is assigned to human capital accumulation requisite to access the next phase, j +1 (Eguía & Echevarría, 2004). Mathematically, ...
... , , , , , and all other factors of production posits to be fixed in short-run, representing the state of the economy (Eguía & Echevarría, 2004). ...
The debate on the nature of the relationship between cohort size and unemployment rate has been widely studied and generated a substantial body of literature in labor economics discourse. However, an in-depth reading of this literature suggests that, besides the fact that findings are mixed and do not provide conclusive evidences, one hardly ever comes across studies exclusively on African countries. Likewise, generalized studies across countries employing pooled data seem to dominate the literature. In light of these, the current study examines the nature of the said relationship, over the period 1970–2019, in Nigeria in a multivariate and dynamic framework. Employing Bounds testing procedure, the article finds that both the short-run and long-run impacts of cohort size on overall unemployment rate are positive and statistically significant. This suggests that aggregate unemployment rate tends to be higher when many young people supply labor. In view of these findings, the article recommends that government should collaborate with private sector to develop and implement functional microcredit schemes. Such schemes should be flexibly structured to avert institutional bottlenecks and enhance accountability and transparency in their management.
... With regard to cohort crowding hypothesis, premised on a career phase model (see Welch, 1979;Schmidt, 1993;Eguía and Echevarría, 2004), proponents of this view asserts that, firstly, there is a negative relationship between cohort size and its labour market prospects (Fuchs and Weyh, 2014). As postulated by the exponents of this view (in particular, Easterlin, 1961;Perry, 1970;Flaim, 1979), an increase in the size of a specifically defined age group-the proportion of young workers in the working age population -has repercussions on the (un-)employment outcomes of that particular group (Moffat and Roth, 2017;Roth, 2017). ...
... Basically, according to this model as postulated by Welch (1979), the simplest view of the way cohort size affects unemployment rate follows from the notion that work careers consist of a series of more or less distinct phases (Welch, 1979) and at any moment in the career, a member of the profession is in transit between two of these (Welch, 1979) phases (often viewed as a convex combination). For simplicity and in line with the objective of the study, following Schmidt (1993), Eguía and Echevarría (2004), and Ahn et al (2000), suppose each of these distinct phases is characterized by the age segment to which the individual belongs (that is, aged 15 to 24 years depicted by both sexes) and while there is imperfect substitutability across age segments, individuals sharing certain similar characteristics, primarily age, (though, in some studies, the level of education, gender, and/or experience) are perfectly substitutable. Besides, building on Easterlin's (1978) and Welch's (1979) views, suppose each of these three age segments/phases is, as well, associated with distinct degrees of expertise in the labour market. ...
... Thus, theoretically, as advanced by Welch (1979), as the worker commences the , is devoted to accumulating human capital to access the next stage, 1 + j (Eguía and Echevarría 2004). Mathematically, ( ) ...
The nature of the relationship between unemployment rate and the size of a specifically defined age group, or cohort, notably the young workers in the working-age population, has been a subject of an intense debate, widely studied and generated a sizable body of literature. However, while the debate is still inconclusive, an in-depth reading of these expansive extant and crescive literatures suggests that besides the contradictory findings, one of the major drawbacks with these literatures is that hardly any studies have been reported exclusively for African countries, as most of the extant literature principally focused on European, Asian, and American economies. Moreover, generalized studies across countries employing pooled data appears to dominate the literature. Thus, using annual time series secondary data spanning between the period 1970 and 2019, this study employs bounds testing approach to co-integration to examine the nature of the aforementioned relationship in Nigeria. Empirical results obtained revealed that cohort size has an overwhelming positive and statistically significant impact on unemployment rate both in the short- and long-run, suggesting that the size of one’s generation, has repercussions not only on (un)employment outcomes of that particular group but also on other age groups in Nigeria.
... In small samples, the Dickey-Fuller tests above can lack power to reject the null hypothesis of non-stationarity (Baum 2001;Eguía and Echevarría 2004). Several complementary tests can be used that alleviate this problem. ...
In this paper short- and long-run price elasticities of residential water demand are estimated using co-integration and error-correction methods. Unit root tests reveal that water use series and series of other variables affecting use are non-stationary. However, a long-run co-integrating relationship is found in the water demand model, which makes it possible to obtain a partial correction term and to estimate an error correction model. Using monthly time-series observations from Seville, Spain, we find that the price-elasticity of demand is estimated as around -0.1 in the short run and -0.5 in the long run. These results are robust to the use of different specifications.
... In words of Freeman (1979), ''apparently because younger and older male workers are imperfect substitutes in production, changes in the number of young male workers relative to older male workers substantially influence the ratio of the earnings of younger men to the earnings of older men''. For the specific case of the Spanish economy the lack of data on wages by age has not allowed researchers to test these effects although there is some empirical evidence (Eguia and Echevarria (2004) ) concerning the relative higher unemployment rate experienced by those individuals that belong to the baby-boom generation. In this sense, it is worth noting that in highly regulated labor markets one should expect the adjustment of the labor market to be done through a change in quantities (employment) instead of prices (wages) following a change in the relative supply of workers with different levels of work experience. ...
We introduce a new hybrid approach to joint estimation of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) for high quantiles of return distributions. We investigate the relative performance of VaR and ES models using daily returns for sixteen stock market indices (eight from developed and eight from emerging markets) prior to and during the 2008 financial crisis. In addition to widely used VaR and ES models, we also study the behavior of conditional and unconditional extreme value (EV) models to generate 99 percent confidence level estimates as well as developing a new loss function that relates tail losses to ES forecasts. Backtesting results show that only our proposed new hybrid and Extreme Value (EV)-based VaR models provide adequate protection in both developed and emerging markets, but that the hybrid approach does this at a significantly lower cost in capital reserves. In ES estimation the hybrid model yields the smallest error statistics surpassing even the EV models, especially in the developed markets.
... In small samples, the Dickey-Fuller tests above can lack power to reject the null hypothesis of non-stationarity (Baum 2001;Eguía and Echevarría 2004). Several complementary tests can be used that alleviate this problem. ...
The purpose of this paper is to measure the short- and long-run effect ofthe price of water on residential water use. Unit root tests reveal that water use series and series of other variables affecting use are non-stationary. However, a long-run co-integrating relationship is found in the demand model, which makes possible to obtain a partial correction term and to estimate an error correction model. The empirical application uses monthly time-series observations from Seville (Spain). The price-elasticity of demand is estimated as around -0.1 in the short run and -0.5 in the long run. These results are robust to the use of different specifications.
Purpose: This research aims to analyze whether the development of sharia banking and several other variables such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), population and social factors have a significant effect on the unemployment rate and poverty alleviation in Indonesia. Method: this research uses quantitative research with the research object being Indonesian macroeconomic data using semiannual data for the period 2010 – 2020. The analysis used is multivariate analysis based on the Partial Least Square-Structural Equation Model (PLS-SEM). Results and conclusions: This research finds that social variables have a negative influence on the unemployment rate compared to population, Islamic banking, or GDP. Another finding is that GDP and Islamic banking have a very detrimental impact on poverty levels. This is different from the unemployment rate which has a positive impact. Regarding the use of mediating factors, namely the unemployment rate, it turns out that sharia banking, population and GDP do not have a significant effect on the poverty rate. However, the amount of poverty is negatively influenced by social variables. implications: This research provides implications for government policy to continue to strengthen capital policies, networks, education and socialization of sharia banking. Apart from that, systematic, conducive, serious and measurable positive efforts in various economic sectors will have an impact on poverty alleviation. Originality/value: This research offers novelty in the form of connecting Islamic banking with poverty levels and is found to have a negative relationship. We use data from 2010 to 2020. We suspect that this condition is caused by a lack of Indonesian government policies regarding capital, networks and education.
Virtusa Incorporated, one of the leading ICT companies operating an office in Sri Lanka, has resorted to electricity saving strategies over a period of time, and has taken steps to bring about a green revenue stream to its operations. In this effort, electrical energy consumption by the company has been among the main focuses, and attempts had been made since 2008 to manage electricity consumption by way of resorting to demand management and conservation methods. A post-evaluation study has been conducted to appraise the effectiveness of the conservation measures, of which an econometric assessment based on a time series analysis was an integral component. This paper exposes the methodological aspects of this exercise, the results obtained, as well as the investigative insights it could make with regard to the relative effectiveness of the electricity consumption management techniques adopted by the company. The study has identified the main electricity saving strategies adopted by the Company and their respective timing. Intervention of these measures was modeled against the monthly data on company's electricity consumption to trace their significance. A long run relationship between the selected strategic variables and the electrical energy consumption was estimated using Johanson Cointegration methodology and their respective causalities were appraised using Toda-Yamamoto Granger test. The appraisal concluded that shutting down of machines when not in use and the use of energy efficient technology such as LED screens have been effective as electricity conservation measures, and therefore, that the ICT corporates in Sri Lanka could aim at achieving significant energy saving benefits by practicing such strategies. The econometric study also diagnosed the presence of strong, but unidentified, determinant behind energy consumption patterns of the company for the fact that the time variable, when introduced, became overwhelmingly dominant in the model. Through this revelation, further investigations into management practices of the company were made, which enabled identification of the centrally managed airconditioning which had effectively been subject to control though the records on such intervention had not been maintained.
