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Administrative regions in Morocco TR1* Guelmim-Es Semara, Laayoune-Boujdour-Sakia El Hamra and Oued Eddahab-Lagouira TR8 Rabat-Sale-Zemmour-Zaer 

Administrative regions in Morocco TR1* Guelmim-Es Semara, Laayoune-Boujdour-Sakia El Hamra and Oued Eddahab-Lagouira TR8 Rabat-Sale-Zemmour-Zaer 

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Conference Paper
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Climate change is one of the major risks facing developing countries in Africa for which agriculture is a predominant part in the economy. Alterations in rainfall patterns and increasing temperatures will most likely translate into yield reductions in many crops (Gommes et al. 2009). The early literature of economic impact assessment of climate cha...

Contexts in source publication

Context 1
... model was developed to include a number of features critical to analyses focusing on developing countries such as including household consumption of non-marketed (or "subsistence") commodities, and multi input-output production structure that allows for any activity to produce multiple commodities and any commodity to be produced by multiple activities. The IFPRI CGE modeling infrastructure allows for a regionalized disaggregation that would support the regional structure chosen for this analysis, and which is based on the regional disaggregation of Moroccan territory at the administrative regional scale (Table 1, Appendix A). The data to be used in the model is taken from the compilation of a national social accounting matrix for 2003 based on the work of Dr. Rachid Doukkali of IAV/Hassan II in Rabat, Morocco, and which identifies 60 activities and 68 commodities. ...
Context 2
... previously mentioned, the model regional disaggregation is based on the administrative and economic regional disaggregation of Morocco (Table 1, Appendix A). ...
Context 3
... PMV is the new agricultural strategy adopted in Morocco in 2008, and which lays down a vision of transforming the agricultural sector by 2020 to ensure a sustainable path of productivity growth, consolidate integration with local and international markets, job creation and mitigate poverty impacts (especially in the rural areas). The PMV includes well-defined productivity targets at the subnational level, i.e. at the level of the administrative and economic regions identified in Table 1, achievable through a series of policy reforms centered on public-private partnerships for investment programs divided into "Pilier I" and "Pilier II" programs. 21 The PMV is mainly an investment program. ...
Context 4
... impact on sectorial GDP in other sectors follows a similar trend, but with varying degrees depending on the strength of their link to the agricultural sector. Historically, these results were observed in the wake of severe droughts, e.g. in the wake of the 1981 and 2000 severe droughts (Table 10, Appendix A). ...
Context 5
... consumption falls substantially following the increase in prices and the negative impact on household income. Indeed, household income decreases substantially, with effects more or less equally distributed across regions (Table 11, Appendix). This is driven by the decline in returns on factor payments to households due to decreased productivity captured by declining factor wages, which in turn is caused by the climate-induced contraction in factor demand from all sectors (Tables 13-16, Appendix A). ...
Context 6
... household income decreases substantially, with effects more or less equally distributed across regions (Table 11, Appendix). This is driven by the decline in returns on factor payments to households due to decreased productivity captured by declining factor wages, which in turn is caused by the climate-induced contraction in factor demand from all sectors (Tables 13-16, Appendix A). Hence, the observed decline in GDP is mainly driven by the negative impacts of climate change on agricultural crop production and sectors closely related to agriculture, such as the food processing sector. ...
Context 7
... of CO 2 fertilization effects 24 on crop yields under the "high productivity" scenario (Table 17, Appendix A). Factor employment drastically increases to compensate the loss in production due to declining yields. ...
Context 8
... is depicted by our results (Table 8, Appendix A), where we observe a substantial positive impact when we include the PMV adaptation targets and also the CO 2 fertilization effects. Indeed, including the PMV targets boosts agricultural production significantly, and especially under the scenario including the CO2 fertilization effects (Table 17, Appendix). The increase reaches up to 20 percent under the best case scenario of "A2_wCO 2 _High", which is mainly due to increased yield. ...

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