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AOD (a), RF (b) and temperature response (c) time series to the four tropical volcanic eruption cases, C2W↓, C2W−, C2W↑, and C2W↑↑. The time series have been normalised to have peak values at unity, where C is the normalisation constant. Black lines indicate the median across the ensembles, while shading marks the 5th and 95th percentiles.
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We investigate the climatic effects of volcanic eruptions spanning from Mt.\ Pinatubo-sized events to super-volcanoes. The study is based on ensemble simulations in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) climate model using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 6 (WACCM6) atmosphere model. Our analysis focuses on the impa...
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... A provides a description of the simulation setup and utilised output vari-A notable feature across the subfigures of Fig. 1 is the peak occurrence of the C2W↓ 195 case compared to the larger eruption cases. The peak of C2W↓ arrives earlier for both 196 AOD (Fig. 1a) and temperature (Fig. 1c), while the RF time series in Fig. 1b are all in-197 distinguishable. Cases C2W−, C2W↑, and C2W↑↑ are indistinguishable in their tem-198 perature development, and while ...
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... A provides a description of the simulation setup and utilised output vari-A notable feature across the subfigures of Fig. 1 is the peak occurrence of the C2W↓ 195 case compared to the larger eruption cases. The peak of C2W↓ arrives earlier for both 196 AOD (Fig. 1a) and temperature (Fig. 1c), while the RF time series in Fig. 1b are all in-197 distinguishable. Cases C2W−, C2W↑, and C2W↑↑ are indistinguishable in their tem-198 perature development, and while C2W↓ peaks at an earlier time, it decays similarly to 199 the other cases. Interestingly, the same development between C2W− and C2W↑ is not 200 ...
Context 3
... A provides a description of the simulation setup and utilised output vari-A notable feature across the subfigures of Fig. 1 is the peak occurrence of the C2W↓ 195 case compared to the larger eruption cases. The peak of C2W↓ arrives earlier for both 196 AOD (Fig. 1a) and temperature (Fig. 1c), while the RF time series in Fig. 1b are all in-197 distinguishable. Cases C2W−, C2W↑, and C2W↑↑ are indistinguishable in their tem-198 perature development, and while C2W↓ peaks at an earlier time, it decays similarly to 199 the other cases. Interestingly, the same development between C2W− and C2W↑ is not 200 found in the AOD time ...
Context 4
... A provides a description of the simulation setup and utilised output vari-A notable feature across the subfigures of Fig. 1 is the peak occurrence of the C2W↓ 195 case compared to the larger eruption cases. The peak of C2W↓ arrives earlier for both 196 AOD (Fig. 1a) and temperature (Fig. 1c), while the RF time series in Fig. 1b are all in-197 distinguishable. Cases C2W−, C2W↑, and C2W↑↑ are indistinguishable in their tem-198 perature development, and while C2W↓ peaks at an earlier time, it decays similarly to 199 the other cases. Interestingly, the same development between C2W− and C2W↑ is not 200 found in the AOD time series. C2W↓ peaks at an earlier time, ...
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... is not included. Likewise, after three years both time series are almost fully equi-244 librated (Fig. 1a,b). The data is further divided into two periods; a pre-peak period where We also note that while the aerosol forcing efficiency is decreasing for tropical M20 275 data in the pre-peak period, the full dataset shows increasing efficiency. This is in line 276 with what we find from C2WN↑, which is the only eruption case that does not show ...
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Citations
The global food trade system is resilient to minor disruptions but vulnerable to major ones. Major shocks can arise from global catastrophic risks, such as abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios (e.g., nuclear war) or global catastrophic infrastructure loss (e.g., due to severe geomagnetic storms or a global pandemic). We use a network model to examine how these two scenarios could impact global food trade, focusing on wheat, maize, soybeans, and rice, accounting for about 60% of global calorie intake. Our findings indicate that an abrupt sunlight reduction scenario, with soot emissions equivalent to a major nuclear war between India and Pakistan (37 Tg), could severely disrupt trade, causing most countries to lose the vast majority of their food imports (50-100 % decrease), primarily due to the main exporting countries being heavily affected. Global catastrophic infrastructure loss of the same magnitude as the abrupt sunlight reduction has a more homogeneous distribution of yield declines, resulting in most countries losing up to half of their food imports (25-50 % decrease). Thus, our analysis shows that both scenarios could significantly impact the food trade. However, the abrupt sunlight reduction scenario is likely more disruptive than global catastrophic infrastructure loss regarding the effects of yield reductions on food trade. This study underscores the vulnerabilities of the global food trade network to catastrophic risks and the need for enhanced preparedness.
