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A typical setting of the LUDO game: Green has drawn a “one” with a die Which move should Green make to reduce the risk of losing a token? 

A typical setting of the LUDO game: Green has drawn a “one” with a die Which move should Green make to reduce the risk of losing a token? 

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... YOUNG CHILDREN IN RISK ASSESSMENT What is risk? Risk analysts have given complex definitions of this term. For common usage in everyday life it can also be defined quite simply as a characteristic of experiments, in which at least one of the outcomes is coupled with a substantial loss of resources. Risks are usually described in terms of gambles, like the following: and 0 if it turns “tails“? Gambles like these appear to be well understood by a good portion of children. This is, at least what findings of an empirical study by Engel, Kuntze, Martignon and Gundlach (RIKO-STAT, 2009) reveal. Children in fourth grade (aged nine to ten years) appear to grasp that the offer is not unfair and that the second option involves “risk”. In order to instruct young children on the difference between absolute and relative risks, Engel, Kuntze, Martignon and Gundlach (RIKO-STAT, 2009) have devised simple tasks associated to decisions in typical ritualized games, like LUDO, that are played in most western countries. Consider the following situation in LUDO: there only two players left, namely “Blue” and “Green”. Blue is two squares behind Green and at another position Blue is three squares behind Green. Assume it is Green’s turn. He draws a “one”. Which token should Green move? Which move is riskier? The risk of losing one token can have a probability of “one out of three” if one moves further with the right token (Figure 4) or “one out of six” if one moves with the left token. How do we compare the risk in the two scenarios? Would it be correct to say, that “the expectancy of Green keeping a token has been increased by 100%” , when actually the risk of The test results with four graders were encouraging as far as the understanding of risk is concerned. Moreover, with older children in ninth grade, we had the positive experience that not only did they understand the risk involved in the decision to be made by Green but also grasped, that risk can be expressed in two very different ways, which may cause quite different reactions. DISCUSSION This paper is aimed at convincing future teachers that it makes great sense to prepare children for an adult life that can deal with risks with the help of simple statistical instruments learned at school. It also aims at presenting possible ways for en-actively instructing children on basic issues about validities of features for decisions under uncertainty and for reckoning with risks. It motivates the instruction on different ways for communicating about risks, so as to make clear that some forms of communication can be transparent while others may be opaque and amenable to unnecessary ...

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... The most advanced operation required for constructing fast and frugal trees is estimating cue validities. It has been demonstrated that children as young as fourth grade can understand the concept of cue validity through enactive education approaches, manipulating towers of colored tinker cubes to represent the relationship between cues and outcomes (Martignon and Monti 2010). Children can apply their understanding to can answer questions on the validity of cues. ...
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Zusammenfassung: Wir schlagen eine Lehr-Lernum-gebung vor, die erste Kompetenzen für den Umgang mit Risiko von Viertklässlern fördern kann. Es geht dabei primär um erste Konzepte für einen Diskurs über Risiko, die anhand von einfachen Aufgaben und die Diskussion, die sie entfachen können, von Kin-dern aufgenommen werden. Diese Lehr-Lernumgebung ist bereits in 6 vierten Klassen in Berlin realisiert worden.