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A simple numerical example of Bayes' rule

A simple numerical example of Bayes' rule

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Justice systems are sometimes called upon to evaluate cases in which healthcare professionals are suspected of killing their patients illegally. These cases are difficult to evaluate because they involve at least two levels of uncertainty. Commonly in a murder case it is clear that a homicide has occurred, and investigators must resolve uncertainty...

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Context 1
... assume that it is a rare disease found in only 1 person in 1,000 in people like the patient. With this additional information, we can draw conclusions, as laid out in the following paragraph, and depicted in Figure 1 and Table 2. ...
Context 2
... the chances that a person with a positive test result actually has the disease is only 900/10,890 or about 1 in 12. These calculations are illustrated in Figure 1 and Table 2. ...