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1 A plot of soil showing that "peak soil" was reached in the year 2000, fitted to a Hubbert's curve. Adapted after Sverdrup et al. (2013a). Data from FAO (2010, 2011). The diamonds represent millions of hectares of tilled soil.
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... In the previous section, we discussed how resource availability is a historical constant, acting as the "nutrients" of social ecosystems [35]. Resources are essential for sustainable societies, and the SDGs are largely about redistributing them [26,31,36]. ...
The lexical analysis of seminal policy-to-diplomacy documents from the socio-environmental discourse of the last fifty years of agendas has allowed examining the contextual affinities between resources, pollution, and health. The central role of resource stewardship, according to nature’s physical limits, is highlighted in the context of the boundary systems for the biosphere and societies, and the carrying capacity and inclusive systemic health (one health, planetary health, …). To reframe a rather fragmented conceptual and methodological landscape, this work proposes choices that consider core values, purpose, and best practice developments, allowing us to compare the dynamics of socioecological states across the planet and in specific social, economic, political, and cultural contexts. The prioritization of resource justice and responsibility becomes a societal project, embedding the economy in social and ecological frames through institutional reframing and tangible action on resource management, pollution control, and health outcomes. How? By recognizing the primacy of the law and economy of life—the adequacy between basic needs and accessible resources for all— over the rules and economy of the market through socioecosystemic checks and balances.
... The mining rate is driven by profit from operations. The price is determined by how much metal is available in the market in the same way as in our earlier models (Sverdrup and Ragnarsdottir 2014;Sverdrup et al. 2017b;Sverdrup and Olafsdottir 2019). A high metal price will increase profits and promote larger supply to the market, and limit demand. ...
The scandium production rate and price data for scandium oxide and scandium metal was extracted from various sources. Data for extractable resources of scandium were found and evaluated by application of estimated yields. The feasible extractable resource is about 6.1 million ton, and with present technology, about 676,000 ton scandium appear as potentially extractable. The potential for scandium extraction is about 1500 ton/year at present, but only about 45 ton per year was produced in 2022. With improved extraction and access yields, production could be increased to about 450 ton per year, and the scandium resource would increase to about 1.5 million ton. The investigation suggests that there will be an increased demand for scandium metal in the future, but that it is limited by the high price and the lack of a properly functioning market and by a lack of production infrastructure. The scandium market show signs of being disorganized and unstructured. Modelling of future scandium production was done using the WORLD7 integrated assessment model, after development of a scandium module. Simulations show that the price will remain relatively high, but lower than in the past. The most uncertain factor for predicting the price is the size of the demand. The main limitation for making scandium metal is high energy costs and low extraction yields.
... In the available policy plans, there is planned a large capacity coming from the use of photovoltaic technologies. Earlier research has indicated (Sverdrup & Ragnarsdottir, 2014;Sverdrup et al., 2024) that the amounts of some of the key materials may come in limited supply (silver, indium, germanium, gallium and tellurium), limiting the installed capacity for a certain technology (Sverdrup et al., 2024). Based on silver, gallium and indium, it appears that about 23% of the demand may be covered with the available material. ...
... Figure 1 shows the cadmium production and market price in 1900-2022 and data from USGS 2019, pieced together from various other websites accessed by the authors. Cadmium production peaked in 2018 (Sverdrup & Ragnarsdottir, 2014;see Fig. 1) and is expected to decline to a very low level by 2030 according to the UN/ECE-LRTAP protocol (UN/ ECE, 1998). If cadmium production has peaked remains to be verified, but that should be the result of respecting the UN/ECE-LRTAP Århus 1988 Heavy Metals Protocol, ratified in 2013 and implemented after 2020. ...
... The Integrated Assessment Model WORLD7 was used for this study . The reserves and resource estimates for the source metals are based on geological estimates, the interpretation of geological data and the allocation of extractable amounts according to ore quality, stratified with extraction costs (Mudd et al., 2014;Sverdrup & Ragnarsdottir, 2014;Krautkraemer, 1988). ...
Cadmium has appeared as an important element for certain types of solar cells and rechargeable batteries. It is possible that there will be a large increase in demand for technical cadmium in the future. This is in conflict with environmental policies for phasing out cadmium from any technical use worldwide because of its great toxicity to humans. Cadmium toxicity is on par with that of mercury, and data suggests that cadmium exposure has no safe lower limit. There is no shortage of cadmium to extract, and no shortage from lack of cadmium available in the future zinc flow is to be expected. There is a global treaty to ban it from all use. The Integrated Assessment Model WORLD7 was used to assess different aspects of the supply of cadmium to society. It would be possible to produce at least 250,000 tons/year; in reality, the 2023 production is about 24,000 tons/year. The price is about 3500–4500 $/ton and is volatile. Because there is a United Nations agreed global policy to phase out cadmium from all use, demand for cadmium will soon not be met, and there will be an actual shortage of cadmium for any use, including photovoltaic technologies and semiconductors. This is good news for nature, but bad news for the CdTe and CIGS types of photovoltaic panels. It is estimated that only 25% of the planned future capacity may not be available unless good substitutes for cadmium can be found.
... A number of pessimistic views concerning long-term global mineral supplies have appeared in the literature in the modern era, beginning with the Club of Rome treatise on 'The Limits to Growth' [26] and periodically by other authors since then, e.g., [27][28][29]. However, it is economics, not geology, that define what companies report as 'reserves' (these are legally defined as 'economically extractable' bodies of mineral resources), and it is these figures upon which pessimistic perspectives declaring that we are 'running out' are erroneously based. ...
Clean technologies and infrastructure for our low-carbon, green future carry intense mineral demands. The ambition remains to recycle and reuse as much as we can; however, newly mined resources will be required in the near term despite the massive improvements in the reuse and recycling of existing end-of-use products and wastes. Growth trends suggest that mining will still play a role after 2050 since the demand for metals will increase as the developing world moves toward a per capita usage of materials comparable to that of the developed world. There are sufficient geological resources to deliver the required mineral commodities, but the need to mine must be balanced with the requirement to tackle environmental and social governance issues and to deliver sustainable development goals, ensuring that outcomes are beneficial for both the people and planet. Currently, the lead time to develop new mines following discovery is around 16 years, and this needs to be reduced. New approaches to designing and evaluating mining projects embracing social, biodiversity, and life cycle analysis aspects are pivotal. New frontiers for supply should include neglected mined wastes with recoverable components and unconventional new deposits. New processing technologies that involve less invasive, lower energy and cleaner methodologies need to be explored, and developing such methodologies will benefit from using nature-based solutions like bioprocessing for both mineral recovery and for developing sustainable landscapes post mining. Part of the new ambition would be to seek opportunities for more regulated mining areas in our own backyard, thinking particularly of old mineral districts of Europe, rather than relying on sources with potentially and less controllable, fragile, and problematic supply chains. The current debate about the potential of mining our deep ocean, as an alternative to terrestrial sources needs to be resolved and based on a broader analysis; we can then make balanced societal choices about the metal and mineral supply from the different sources that will be able to deliver the green economy while providing a net-positive deal for the planet and its people.
... This makes PGMs very strategic for the automobile sector. Additionally, PGMs are essential in rechargeable batteries and superalloys (Degryse and Bentley, 2017;Sverdrup and Ragnarsdottir, 2014;Wäger et al., 2011). ...
... According to the International Energy Agency, the demand for Nickel is expected to double by 2040 in a conservative scenario and almost triple in the worst-case scenario (International Energy Agency, 2021). However, the maximum production peak of current Nickel reserves is expected between 2025 and 2033 (Calvo et al., 2017b;Sverdrup and Ragnarsdottir, 2014). ...
... Some authors have suggested that there could be enough PGM reserves for the next 200 years based on current production data and estimated reserves (Ndlovu, 2015). However, others have calculated that the maximum production peak for PGMs would occur in 2020 (Sverdrup and Ragnarsdottir, 2014). According to Valero et al. (2018) the demand for Co and PGMs could exceed their supply, creating a bottleneck. ...
... The depletion of natural resources and its negative impacts have accelerated rapidly since the beginning of the 2000s. Without developing globally effective policies, the material consumption will increase to 190 billion tonnes by 2060 (UNEP SDG's Report 2019, Sverdrup and Ragnarsdottir 2014). The debate about the increasing consumption of resources and the associated consequences has shifted from the scientific community into the public and political debate in the last 30 years. ...
... 1. Global average life satisfaction has not significantly improved since 1975 , Kubiszewski et al. 2013). If wealth were distributed more equally on a global scale, it would appear to be economically possible to support a population of 9 billion people at about 7,000 $ per capita with the current world GDP, but this is assuming the natural resources for this to be available (Bardi 2013, Bardi et al. 2019, Kubiszewski et al. 2013, Sverdrup and Ragnarsdottir 2014. ...
... Additionally, the economic contraction approach is necessary to delegate resource consumption and emissions towards the planetary boundaries. From a materials mass balance perspective, there does not appear to be any sustainable population size above 3 billion people in the long run (Ehrlich et al. 1992, Sverdrup and Ragnarsdottir 2011, Sverdrup et al., 2014, 2020a. 4. Redistribution of opportunities for income, with it the linked resource use as an opposing strategy of constant growth to lift the living standards in the poorest countries, has been suggested. ...
... Studies in the PSC have included quantitative models, and their results pointed toward P scarcity (Nedelciu et al., 2020;Ragnarsdóttir et al., 2011;Sverdrup & Ragnarsdottir, 2011;Sverdrup & Ragnarsdóttir, 2014). In these researches, a system dynamics model was proposed and mentioned the growing population as a primary driver for P consumption and demand. ...
Phosphorus is an unsustainable substance that plays an essential role in modern agricultural systems and crop yield. Due to phosphorus growing demand and the importance of sustainable application of this critical resource, there is increasing concern about its supply chain network sustainability and resiliency. In this paper, a multi-objective, multi-product, multi-period mathematical model is developed for the sustainable phosphorus supply chain management in an uncertain environment. The parametric uncertainties such as demand and supply are aggravated by disruptions with devastating effects on strategic, tactical, and operational decisions. Given the potential adverse effects of the phosphorus supply chain on the environment and human beings, a sustainable-resilient supply chain network of the fertilizer industry is designed by considering the related environmental, social, and economic challenges of the phosphorus managing. A reactive strategy is adapted to encounter the disruptions and breakdowns along with the network, while a robust stochastic programming is extended and solved using genetic algorithm to cope with the real-world uncertainties. The proposed model effectively controls the uncertainty and risk-aversion of output decisions and confronts the adverse effects of disruptions. The effectiveness and applicability of the model are validated through a real case study. Besides, the performance and reliability of the model are proved by the realization under new scenarios. The results indicate that the proposed model performs well in capturing real-world uncertainties and promoting the sustainability and resiliency of the network.
... It has already been well documented that environmentally sustainable consumer behavior is clearly an important aspect of pro-social consumption activities [1]. Instead of spending time and money on waste disposal, the concept of "zero waste" that has emerged in modern waste management is on the way to being implemented worldwide [2,3]. Zero waste management, which aims at the management of resources and waste, requires well-targeted interventions that can help minimize waste. ...
Abstract: Due to increasing demand on earth sources in all areas, some materials have come under pressure for effective recovery and reuse. In this sense, the management of waste materials has become an important need for effective utilizations. In this regard, the waste management behaviour of individuals towards zero waste was studied using a scale and included pre-testing and administering a survey, and reducing the number of items with the determination of factors. The scale was evaluated using all necessary statistical measures. The IBM SPSS and IBM SPPS AMOS were utilized for confirmatory and expository factor analyses, respectively. It was found that the Cronbach’s alpha coefficient determined the reliability level of the improved scale, at 0.909, while the Kaiser– Meyer–Olkin coefficient was determined as 0.887. The Bartlett’s sphericity test result was found to be p < 0.000. The test results clearly indicated that the sample size was adequate for the measurement of the construct and a patterned relationship among the items was detected. However, the reliability and validity of the developed scaled were confirmed by the goodness of fit indices used. It is important to note that education, profession, level of income, and place of residence significantly influenced the participants’ zero waste management behaviour, but the gender and age of the participants were not influential factors. By having these experimental results, it is suitable to suggest that a model consisting of three factors (knowledge, facilities, and motivation) was capable of measuring the waste management behaviour of people towards zero waste in Turkey.
Keywords: scale development; survey; zero waste
... Reserves, resources, and current (2017) annual production of the metals (to increase rapidly due to low carbon technologies) used in calculations of Watari et al (2018) who provide references for source data, particularly United States Geological Survey (2017) and Sverdrup and Ragnarsdóttir (2014) . ( Clout and Simonson, 2005 ) for steel production and the previous limited use of lithium plus potentially large resources in the salars of western South America ( Ahmad, 2022 ) argue against iron and lithium terminal depletion by 2060. ...
Over the past two decades, concerns about anthropogenic CO2 emissions have led to computer-based climate models of the consequences, first on global warming and then on more general climate change. The more extremes of these models have been used to engender concerns about climate events that could be catastrophic for global populations even though natural climate change has always been incremental with only periodic large volcanic eruptions producing short-term catastrophic changes due to massive additions of aerosols to the atmosphere. Climate change accords have led to widespread acceptance of Net Zero by 2060 targets. However, indicative modelling of the nexus between clean energy and the critical metals required for low carbon solar and wind technologies and electric vehicles and their chargers indicates that many metals, particularly Co, Ni, Cu, Se, Ag, Cd, In, Te, and Pt, may be severely to terminally depleted by 2060, making further low carbon technology production impossible. Mineral exploration and currently unmined deposits with high risk factors are only likely to be able to replace these non-renewable metals at lower grades in more inaccessible or deeper mines, leading to even further increases in conventional energy for mining and metallurgy and consequent cost of the low carbon technology revolution. There is no current indication that recycling can replace the critical metal stocks. The heterogeneous global distribution of both mineral deposits containing the critical metals and production points could become a geopolitical issue if global security declines. These factors combined with the slow incremental, rather than catastrophic, changes related to climate change, suggest that a reset in Net Zero ambitions should be made to consider a more multicomponent plan for the future that involves a balanced portfolio of least polluting energy sources that do not cause serious depletion of affordable metal resources for the future.
... Although global Cr reserve is sufficient to meet conceivable demand of modern society, its geographical distribution is heavily concentrated (95%) in Kazakhstan, South Africa, and Turkey. 4 Recent statistics show that South Africa, Kazakhstan, and Turkey accounted for 44,17, and 17% of the global Cr production, respectively. 5 Besides, anthropogenic Cr cycles are closely associated with both energyintensive (e.g., ferrochrome production) and emissionintensive activities (e.g., treatment of chromium-containing waste), 6 leading to concerns on sustainable Cr resource management. ...
Chromium (Cr) is a critical metal due to its non-substitutable application in the metallurgy industry and highly uneven distribution of global reserve. However, there is a lack of in-depth analysis of global Cr flow patterns and its trade networks among individual cycles, which leaves the potential barriers and opportunities unexplored for improving chromium resource efficiency. Here, we employ a trade-linked multilevel material flow analysis (MFA) to map the global anthropogenic Cr cycle for year 2019. Social network analysis is also used to identify the key countries involved in the global Cr trade network. The results highlight that the global Cr cycle depends substantially on international trade in different forms, of which stainless steel is the leading application. Although South Africa, Kazakhstan, and Turkey are the major Cr primary resource suppliers, China and India play substantial roles in manufacturing Cr-containing products. Regional disparities exist in the scrap contents of individual country cycles, varying from 7% (uncertainty ranges from 4 to 11%) in China to 88% (uncertainty ranges from 87 to 89%) in India. Additionally, several countries are essential in the global Cr redistribution and in the connectivity of the Cr trade network, which may lead to their strong import dependence and even supply disruption.