Table 10 - uploaded by Nico Keilman
Content may be subject to copyright.
Citations
... Over the last 40 years, the intensity of internal migration-that is the proportion of individuals permanently changing their place of residence within national borders (Rees et al., 2000;Van Imhoff & Keilman, 1991)-has declined in a number of high-income countries, particularly so in the United States (Frey, 2009;Molloy & Smith, 2019) and Australia (Bell, Charles-Edward, et al., 2018), but also in some European countries (Bell, Wilson, et al., 2018). It is paramount to understand the drivers of this decline since internal migration plays an important role in population and labour market adjustments as well as in the realisation of personal aspirations. ...
The last few decades have seen the intensity of internal migration decline in Australia and other advanced economies including the United States. Recent evidence suggests that changes in the composition of the population alone do not account for this persistent downward trend. This has led migration scholars to suspect that more profound behavioural changes driven by social, economic, and technological transformations are at play and that shifts in migration behaviour are likely to be reflected in changes in reasons for migration. We use data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey to shed new light on the factors driving the decline in internal migration in Australia between 2002 and 2018. This is done by examining annual trends in self-reported reasons for intrastate and interstate migration and applying a series of pooled logistic regressions. Results reveal a decline across all reasons for migration, and not only employment-related migration contrary to explanations proposed in the extant literature. The decline in employment-related migration does not appear to be the result of a rise in alternative forms of mobility such as teleworking or substitution with inter-industry or occupation mobility. Furthermore, we also find that the negative effect of duration of residence has increased for family-related migration. Collectively, these findings suggest that behavioural change, particularly increased place attachment, may have contributed to the decline in internal migration.
... The three quarters immediately following quarter in which the first child is born, are considered separately, whereas subsequent quarters are grouped into 4-quarter intervals, i.e. quarters 4-7, quarters 8-11 and quarters 12-15. We also control for living arrangement (LIPRO-position), which is based on the categories of the LIPRO-typology (Imhoff and Keilman 1991). We distinguish (1) women without a partner (single), (2) women who live with their parents (child), (3) married women, (4) unmarried cohabiting women and (5) other types. ...
Motherhood negatively affects female employment in majority populations across Europe. Although employment levels are particularly low among women of migrant origin, little is known about the motherhood–employment link in migrant populations. This paper investigates whether family formation differentially affects the labour market position of migrant women and their descendants compared to natives. Using longitudinal microdata from the Belgian social security registers, 12,167 women are followed from 12 months before until 48 months after the birth of their first child for the period 1999–2010. Levels of activity (versus inactivity), employment (versus unemployment) and full-time employment (versus part-time employment) are compared between natives and first- and second-generation women of Southern European, Eastern European, Turkish and Moroccan origin. We find that activity and employment levels decrease to a larger extent following the transition to parenthood among women of migrant origin than among natives. With respect to activity levels, differences between second-generation women and natives are largely explained by socio-demographic and pre-birth job characteristics, while differences between first-generation women and natives are not, suggesting that other factors such as tied migration patterns determine labour market attachment among first-generation mothers. With respect to employment levels, unemployment is increasing more among women of migrant origin of both generations than among natives, also when controlling for background characteristics, which signals differential access to stable job positions as well as to family policies. In sum, the results draw attention to the challenge that parenthood creates for mothers of migrant origin in terms of retaining and gaining employment, but also to the role of labour market entry and early career positions.
... The three quarters immediately following the quarter in which the first child is born, are considered separately, whereas subsequent quarters are grouped into 4-quarter intervals, i.e. quarters 4 -7, quarters 8 -11 and quarters 12 -15. We also control for living arrangement (LIPRO-position), which is based on the categories of the LIPRO-typology (Imhoff & Keilman, 1991). We distinguish (1) women without a partner (single), (2) women who live with their parents (child), (3) married women, (4) unmarried cohabiting women and (5) other types. ...
This volume provides new insights into the determinants of the gender division of work and migrant-native differentials in labour force attachment over the process of family formation. The first paper adopts a European comparative cross-sectional perspective investigating how life course stage, national context and individual characteristics influence the gender division of housework. Given the limitations of a cross-sectional approach, the subsequent three papers use Belgian longitudinal data to assess the gender division of paid work and migrant-native differences in mothers’ employment and parental leave use following the transition to parenthood. Results demonstrate that parents of young children better succeed in converting their progressive gender ideas into a gender equal division of housework in more progressive gender contexts. With regard to mothers’ employment and parental leave use, results show that socio-economic differences between women of migrant origin and natives are reproduced and accentuated over the transition to parenthood. This volume is of interest to family, gender and labour sociologists, social demographers, migration researchers, policy makers and anyone interested in work-family trajectories following the transition to parenthood.
... We defined lung cancer mortality following the International Classification of Diseases Version 10 (ICD-10 codes C33-C34). Relationship status was derived from the LIPRO-classification, which holds information on the relationship status (single or in a married or cohabiting relationship), as well as on the presence of children in the household [34]. The inclusion of cohabitants is an added value of this study because of the favorable trend towards cohabitation instead of marriage, especially in the younger age groups. ...
Background:
Ample studies have observed an adverse association between individual socioeconomic position (SEP) and lung cancer mortality. Moreover, the presence of a partner has shown to be a crucial determinant of health. Yet, few studies have assessed whether partner's SEP affects health in addition to individual SEP. This paper will study whether own SEP (education), partner's SEP (partner's education) and own and partner's SEP combined (housing conditions), are associated with lung cancer mortality in Belgium.
Methods:
Data consist of the Belgian 2001 census linked to register data on cause-specific mortality for 2001-2011. The study population includes all married or cohabiting Belgian inhabitants aged 40-84 years. Age-standardized lung cancer mortality rates (direct standardization) and mortality rate ratios (Poisson regression) were computed for the different SEP groups.
Results:
In men, we observed a clear inverse association between all SEP indicators (own and partner's education, and housing conditions) and lung cancer mortality. Men benefit from having a higher educated partner in terms of lower lung cancer mortality rates. These observations hold for both middle-aged and older men. For women, the picture is less uniform. In middle-aged and older women, housing conditions is inversely associated with lung cancer mortality. As for partner's education, for middle-aged women, the association is rather weak whereas for older women, there is no such association. Whereas the educational level of middle-aged women is inversely associated with lung cancer mortality, in older women this association disappears in the fully adjusted model.
Conclusions:
Both men and women benefit from being in a relationship with a high-educated partner. It seems that for men, the educational level of their partner is of great importance while for women the housing conditions is more substantial. Both research and policy interventions should allow for the family level as well.
... In that case, a commonly-used approach is simply to keep the parameters of interest constant over the forecast period. One example is the multi-state approach to modelling household dynamics (Van Imhoff & Keilman, 1991), in which the transition probabilities that describe changes among household positions for individuals are kept constant . In the current paper, however, we are able to use time series data over a longer period. ...
We formulate a time series model of household dynamics for different age groups. We model the shares of the population who are in certain household positions (living alone, living with a partner, etc.). These household positions have very pronounced age patterns. The age profiles change slowly over time, due to changes in the home leaving behaviour of young adults, differences in survival rates of men and women, etc. When forecasting household positions to 2040, we want to preserve the characteristics of the age profiles. We test the Lee–Carter model and the Brass relational method using household data for the Netherlands for the period 1996–2010. Annual shares of the population by household position, age, and sex are modeled as random walks with a drift (RWD). While the Brass model has its limitations, it performs better than the Lee–Carter model in our application. The predicted age patterns based on the Brass model look more reasonable, because the Brass model is a two-parameter model, while the Lee–Carter model contains only one parameter. Also, the model parameters and standard errors of the Brass model are easier to estimate than those of the Lee–Carter model.
... It is a model for a stochastic process which, at any given time, occupies one of a set of discrete states defined by the group of characteristics considered. The state transitions, also referred to as events, lead to changes in the composition of the population, linking the individual life history with consequences at the population level (Imhoff and Keilman 1991; Schoen 1988; Willekens 1999 Willekens , 2005). A common approach is to assume that, with respect to the observed life trajectory, only the state occupied at time t contributes to explain the behaviour in a subsequent instant; we are thus dealing with a Markov process with finite state space (Imhoff and Keilman 1991; Willekens 2006). ...
... The state transitions, also referred to as events, lead to changes in the composition of the population, linking the individual life history with consequences at the population level (Imhoff and Keilman 1991; Schoen 1988; Willekens 1999 Willekens , 2005). A common approach is to assume that, with respect to the observed life trajectory, only the state occupied at time t contributes to explain the behaviour in a subsequent instant; we are thus dealing with a Markov process with finite state space (Imhoff and Keilman 1991; Willekens 2006). The multistate demographic model is usually applied to cohorts, describing the life course of groups of individuals that were born in the same period (typically, a year or 5-year period), which is usually referred to as the cohort biography (Rogers 2008; Willekens 2006). ...
Educational attainment is an attribute that leads to a great distinction between the members of a population, including when considering their health and well-being, which are features to pursue within an aging society. The aim of this work was to produce demographic projections for the Portuguese population by sex, age group and level of educational attainment, for the period 2011–2031. Considering fertility, mortality and migration differentials by level of education, the population was projected using the multistate cohort-component method with a block Leslie matrix. Two scenarios were considered, one where educational attainment before 2011 remains constant and another in which educational attainment will follow the trend observed over the last decade, being the trend in the state proportion modelled using continuation ratio models. The results show an increase in the proportion of individuals who complete higher educational levels in almost all age groups of both sexes. Among women, only 13.6 % had completed some level of higher education in 2011, a figure that will rise to approximately 23.4 % in 2031, whereas among men this value was only 9.7 % and will also rise by 2031, reaching 15.5 %. We can expect the proportion of people with higher educational levels to continue to rise as the education of younger cohorts seems to evolve positively. This work will be particularly useful to study how the aging population and the rising levels of education can contribute to the planning and monitoring of public policies, although these findings can also be used in other research contexts.
... From this perspective, it is the overall level or incidence of migration and the way this varies among particular groups that are of interest. Following van Imhoff and Keilman (1991) we describe this as the intensity of migration. Second, migration is a central mechanism driving change in the pattern of human settlement at a range of scales, so spatial redistribution is also pertinent. ...
Compared with other demographic processes, remarkably little attention has been given to the way internal migration varies between countries around the world. We set out the rationale for such comparisons and identify the impediments which have constrained prior work, including a global review of the types of migration data collected. We then draw upon an extensive repository of data assembled through the IMAGE (Internal Migration Around the Globe) project to compare countries with respect to the overall intensity of migration over one- and five-year intervals, the age profile of migration, and the spatial patterns of population movement. We identify marked variations both between and within world regions on each of these dimensions, and document a general decline in mobility over the period 1990-2000. Analysis reveals close links between migration and some aspects of national development but also underlines the significance of history, culture, and social context in shaping mobility behavior. We stress the need for greater harmonization of national practice in collection of internal migration data in order to enhance cross-national comparisons.
... Unfortunately the data, budgets, timeframes, or staff resources available for preparing household projections regularly preclude the use of these model types. In Australia and many other countries there are no readily available data on household transitions, making it difficult for sophisticated models such as LIPRO (van Imhoff and Keilman 1991; NIDI 1999) to be implemented. The multidimensional model PROFAMY (Zeng et al. 1997Zeng et al. , 1999; Jiang and O'Neill 2007), whilst possessing many attractive features, would also be difficult to apply. ...
BACKGROUND The standard method of projecting living arrangements and households in Australia and New Zealand is the 'propensity model', a type of extended headship rate model. Unfortunately it possesses a number of serious shortcomings, including internal inconsistencies, difficulties in setting living arrangement assumptions, and very limited scenario creation capabilities. Data allowing the application of more sophisticated dynamic household projection models are unavailable in Australia. OBJECTIVE The aim was to create a projection model to overcome these shortcomings, whilst minimising input data requirements and costs and retaining the projection outputs users are familiar with. METHODS The sequential propensity household projection model is proposed. Living arrangement projections take place in a sequence of calculations, with progressively more detailed living arrangement categories calculated in each step. In doing so the model largely overcomes the three serious deficiencies of the standard propensity model noted above. PROJECTIONS The model is illustrated by three scenarios produced for one case-study State, Queensland. They are: a baseline scenario in which all propensities are held constant to demonstrate the effects of population growth and ageing, a housing crisis scenario where housing affordability declines, and a prosperity scenario where families and individuals enjoy greater real incomes. A sensitivity analysis in which assumptions are varied one by one is also presented. CONCLUSIONS The sequential propensity model offers a more effective method of producing household and living arrangement projections than the standard propensity model, and is a practical alternative to dynamic projection models for countries and regions where the data and resources to apply such models are unavailable.
... Le modèle utilisé simule les événements démographiques essentiels que les personnes sont susceptibles de rencontrer de l'âge de 60 ans à leur décès avec plus de détails que ne le feraient d'autres méthodes telles que les tables ou les projections multi-états (Palloni, 2005 ;Van Imhoff et Keilman, 1991 ;Willekens, 1982). Un exemple type est la prise en compte de la différence d'âge entre conjoints : au lieu d'utiliser une simple moyenne, elle a été intégrée en tenant compte de distributions de différences d'âge selon l'âge à l'union et le type d'union (légal ou de fait ; premier mariage ou remariage…). ...
L’objectif essentiel de cet article est de quantifier l’evolution de la duree de l’isolement matrimonial (annees vecues dans le celibat, le veuvage ou le divorce), periode durant laquelle les personnes âgees sont plus vulnerables surtout en cas de dependance. Nos analyses s’appuient sur un modele de microsimulation qui a permis d’evaluer l’evolution des durees de vie dans les differents etats matrimoniaux pour les generations de personnes âgees de 60 ans et plus nees entre 1900 a 1950. Au fil des generations, les durees passees dans le mariage des hommes et des femmes se sont allongees et rapprochees. Toutefois, ce sont, pour l’essentiel, les generations passees et presentes d’aines qui ont beneficie de cette tendance. A partir de la generation 1930, le temps passe dans le mariage devrait davantage s’allonger chez les femmes que chez les hommes, l’inverse valant pour l’isolement matrimonial.
... The models we used to determine the Canadian and French future populations aged 75 and older differ from the traditional component projection model. In both countries, microsimulation models were used -LIPRO for France (Van Imhoff & Keilman, 1991 ) and LifePaths for Canada (Statistics Canada, 2004 ) 2 -to estimate populations by marital status, using transition matrices. The models were used simultaneously to project a large number of individual characteristics while incorporating dynamic elements in order to factor in the differential behaviour of each individual according to his/her characteristics. ...
RÉSUMÉ
L’ensemble des sociétés occidentales connaissent actuellement une croissance considérable des personnes âgées de 75 ans et plus. De nombreux changements familiaux affectant ces sociétés, il est pertinent de se demander qui prendra en charge les aînés de demain en cas de besoin d’assistance. Cet article compare les projections démographiques du réseau familial des personnes âgées de 75 ans et plus jusqu’en 2030 au Canada et en France. Au cours des 25 années prochaines, le vivier des aidants familiaux potentiels, constitué des conjoint(e)s et des enfants, s’élargira en raison des effets du Baby Boom (dont l’ampleur a été particulièrement forte au Canada) et de la proportion croissante de femmes qui ont un conjoint. Les populations les plus tributaires de l’aide formelle – sans soutien potentiel provenant d’un enfant ou d’un conjoint – augmenteront à un rythme beaucoup plus soutenu au Canada (123 pour cent) qu’en France (34 pour cent), mais moins rapidement toutefois que l’ensemble des personnes âgées. Les politiques publiques de ces deux pays devront être adaptées afin de soutenir adéquatement des effectifs croissants de personnes âgées confrontés à la dépendance de leurs conjoints. Au Canada, ces politiques devront, de plus, faire face à une hausse, plus forte qu’en France, du nombre d’aînés qui dépendront des services d’aide formelles.
