European Union

European Union

  • Dony Saputra added an answer:
    Exchanging educational data: Are there any (emerging) international standards?

    Problem: More and more countries are getting involved in the globalized world, partly by strengthening such transnational communities as the European Union and the AEC (ASEAN Economic Comunity). The free movement of the workforce and of students is a fact in this regard. Besides the need for comparable transcripts there is also the need for the secure exchange of such data between national authorities. 

    What are current activities in setting up data international exchange standards (such as EDIFACT (Electronic Data Interchange For Administration, Commerce and Transport, United Nations) for educational institutions?

    Dony Saputra · Binus University

    dear prof i think you need to clarify which data that going to be exchange is it academicaly related with amount of student lecturer and operational activity or data related to teaching learning activity using lms.

    As far as i know if its data exchange have to be in same formated data or there are a generalize software that able to merge all type of data such as xml for web based related data or xbrl for finance and accounting.

    Maybe we can do joint research on creating this and its framework.

  • John C. Anyanwu added an answer:
    Does the European Union need closer fiscal integration, and in particular a stronger fiscal center to become more resilient to economic shocks?

    A new IMF book, Designing a European Fiscal Union: Lessons from the Experience of Fiscal Federations, published by Routledge, examines the experience of 13 federal states to help inform the debate on this issue. It analyzes in detail their practices in devolving responsibilities from the subnational to the central level, compares them to those of the European Union, and draws lessons for a possible future fiscal union in Europe.

    The book sets out to answer three sets of questions: (1) What is the role of centralized fiscal policies in federations, and hence the size, features, and functions of the central budget? (2) What institutional arrangements are used to coordinate fiscal policy between the federal and subnational levels? (3) What are the links between federal and subnational debt, and how have subnational financing crises been handled, when they occurred?

    John C. Anyanwu · African Development Bank Group

    The lessons of the last financial crisis and in particular, the long-drawn debt crisis in Europe, make fiscal centralization imperative. Without it, how can countries like Ireland, Spain, Greece, and even Italy survive?

  • Chrysa Leventi added an answer:
    Where can I find good articles on both the policies of austerity placed upon PIIGS and the effect it has had upon these countries?

    Sometimes coming by clear coherent literature on this subject is rather difficult as many articles are more concerned with explaining the causation of the Eurozone crisis rather than the policies being instituted at this current moment and the effects of them.

    Chrysa Leventi · University of Essex

    Hi Martin,

    In case you find it useful: our latest work with M. Matsaganis on the distributional impact of austerity and the recession in Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal from 2009 to 2013 can be foud here:

    The appendix of the article includes a comprehensive list of changes in tax-benefit policies that were implemented in these countries. 

    Best regards,


  • Anna-Lena Högenauer added an answer:
    What is the Subsdiarity Early Warning System of the Lisbon Treaty? What are the roles of parliaments within the new context of European integration?

    What are the roles of parliaments within the new context of European integration? 

  • Anna-Lena Högenauer added an answer:
    What are national parliaments' veto rights in the European legislative procedure?

    Can you explain and supply examples on the use of veto rights by national legislatures in blocking European legislation?

  • Xavier Querol added an answer:
    How European Commission calculates financial penalties to member states for air quality Infringements?

    Dear colleagues,

    I am trying to get information on this issue I saw a case in 2011:
    24/11/2011: Commission takes Poland to Court over air quality and marine policy legislation and urges compliance with the Nitrates Directive
    The European Commission is referring Poland to the Court of Justice of the European Union and asking for financial penalties to be imposed for two failures to transpose EU legislation into national law. Despite earlier warnings, Poland has failed to notify the Commission about the transposition of legislation on the Ambient Air Quality Directive, which should have been in place since 11 June 2010, and about a strategy to protect its seas, which should have been in place since 15 July 2010. On the recommendation of Environment Commissioner Janez Potočnik, the Commission is asking the Court to impose penalty payments. The penalty payments requested are 71,521€ per day for the Ambient Air Quality Directive, and 59,834€ per day in the case of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive. The penalties take into account the seriousness and duration of the infringements. They consist of daily penalty payments to be paid from the date of the judgment (assuming that there is no compliance by then) until transposition is completed.

    I would like to know the procedure for calculation of the fine and how the number of days is determined.
    Do you know if the fine was paid¡ and how much was it?

    Xavier Querol · Spanish National Research Council, in Barcelona, Spain

    10000 Thanks Marcel

  • Rafał Rosiński added an answer:
    Who would cooperate in field of tobacco taxation?

    I am interested in excise duty. I did an analysis of tobacco taxation in the European Union. Maybe you are interested in working in this field and write a joint article. I wait for feedback

    Rafał Rosiński · Koszalin University of Technology

    Thank you very much for your feedback. I'll hope that we'll stay in contact. If anybody would to write common article in tobacco excise or going to write project about tobacco excise - please contact with me -

  • Francis A Beer added an answer:
    Are "Globalization" and "Regionalization" principally market-based phenomena that fortuitously have unintended social and political consequences?

    What I am pondering with this question is whether nation-states enter into extraterritorial pacts (WTO, NAFTA, EU, MERCOSUR, etc.) solely on the basis of perhaps deriving economic benefit  from these liaisons; i.e., without giving consideration to the social and political implications of becoming inter-connected with other sovereign states, all of whom relinquish some of their autonomy to a supranational body.

    This would, for instance, explain why Norway refuses to join the European Union citing the possibility of (a) loss of national sovereignty and (b) a diminishment of the quality of citizenship secured by Norway's Constitution (which establishes a 'horizontal union of free and equal citizens'); and yet Norway had no qualms about signing onto the European Economic Area (EEA) which, according to Erik Erikson ("Norway's Rejection of EU Membership has given the country less self-determination, not more" - weds Norway to the EU economically by granting it access to  Europe's internal market on an equal basis with EU member states.  Seemingly, Norway is willing to accept an economic union, but stops short of a political and social union with the EU member states.  In fact, the inability of EU members to agree on a European Constitution may be a reflection of other EU members having the same hesitance as Norway to become bound  politically and socially to each other.

    In fact, one might view the "Margin of Appreciation" rule applied by the European Court of Human Rights wherein the Court bows to local customs (no matter how discriminatory these local practices may be) as the Court's recognition that member states are only fully committed to the economic benefits that can be derived from a union creating a market of over 450 million people.  Therefore, it is best for the Court to allow member states some wiggling room -- 'to cut them some slack'.


    Francis A Beer · University of Colorado

    Economics are not everything. Not everything is reducible to economics. Man is more than homo economicus. See, for example" my recent "NATO Now and Then" and Norman Fairclough's recent piece on critical discourse analysis of globalization and development.

  • Knud Erik Jørgensen added an answer:
    Is there (or was there) a law requiring the destruction of thistles (e.g. Carduus spp. and Cirsium spp.) in your country (Europe)?

    Dear everyone,

    I’m writing a study about the impact of the law requiring the destruction of thistles on populations of bumblebees in Europe. To do this, I’m looking for information about this law in each country of the European Union. I would be very pleased if you could provide these few information:
    - Is there (or was there) a law on the destruction of thistles (e.g. Carduus spp. and Cirsium spp.) in your country?
    - If so, since when?
    - Does it apply to the whole country or just to a region?
    - Which species are involved?
    - Would you know any studies that have already dealt with the consequences of such a law on biodiversity?

    Many thanks in advance for your help !


    Knud Erik Jørgensen · Aarhus University

    I also do not know of a ban on thistles but heavy use of pesticides has made life very difficult for thistles, cf. /tff_2012_5_4_tidsler_mv.pdf

  • Ade Olaiya added an answer:
    How best can the SDGs succeed where the MDGs have failed in deterring conflict, social injustice and inequality in European urbanisms?

    Terrorism, extremist anti immigrant ideology and populism have recently contributed to greater inequality within western european democracies. Can the UN Post  2015 Development Agenda ensure inclusive sustainable development and poverty alleviation in practice for vulnerable socioeconomically marginalised European ethnic and religious minorities?

    Ade Olaiya · University of the West of England, Bristol

    Thanks Detlef, I am already aware of the work of ENAR and the FRA, and have in fact attended the General Assembly of ENAR in 2013.  Take care.

  • Joaquín Sarrión added an answer:
    Is someone working on UK's opting out from the Prüm decision?

    Next 1 December 2014 finish the transitional period in respect of certain third pillar measures in the field of police co-operation and judicial co-operation in criminal matters (full ECJ jurisdiction for instance). UK opted out on June 2014, and it is possible to rejoin until 30 September 2015.

    Joaquín Sarrión · University of Valencia

    Dear Barry, many thanks for your answer and your comment. Actually I am working on the topic of DNA data exchange between EU Member States, and this question is linked to the UK's right to opt out of all the police and criminal justice measures provided by the Protocol 36 of the Lisbon Treaty (measures adopted after the Maastricht Treaty). I am not sure about the consequences of the full ECJ jurisdiction in this matter. In fact, I am starting to study this question in this moment, and to see how UK can rejoin tho the policie and criminal measures... 

    The EGLE project seems very interesting, so I would like to keep in touch with you, maybe I could ask you some questions after my research... 

    Thanks and regards, 

    Joaquín Sarrión. 

  • Shivan A.M Doski added an answer:
    Do you know any studies relating EU funds injection and the construction industry?

    I identify the relationship between the available resources from EU funds and the increase of public and private sectors’ value of fixed assets and in consequence identify the benefits of participation in the European Union structures from construction sector perspective. I want to expand my research outside my national context therefore looking for the evidence of experiences in the other countries when similar funds had been injected to the construction industry. What research methodologies have been used by other scholars to identify the impact of injecting such finding?

    Shivan A.M Doski · University of Duhok

    for example, you can refer to:

  • Walter Demmelhuber added an answer:
    Why can companies limited points of sale according to border lines within the EU?

    Digital content can be purchased nowadays principally in three ways:

    • downloadable files (being e.g. mp3 or executable programs)
    • data carriers like DVD, Blueray, etc. shipped by mail
    • online streaming usually for visual content

    Looking at the post-purchase situation

    • there are no legal constraints to move legally correctly purchased data carriers or downloadable files with you from one country to the next
    • if you sign up for an online streaming service in one country and want to see it e.g. during a trip in another country it is quite typical that the service is not available

    Looking at the pre-purchase situation

    • for downloadable files and streaming, a cross-border purchase usually does not work (I tried e.g. with Amazon Spain to purchase a certain mp3 (spanish film musik) while being in Spain and it did not work with my German account - although other stuff I could purchase - I had to open a Spanish account. From Germany obviously it did not work at all)
    • DVDs and Bluerays (except for English and in my case German) in foreign languages are usually not available locally for purchase. Rarely you find a DVD with Spanish language track here

    The European Commission for the Interior Market and Services is presently investigating this and asking for public and company opinion because it is contrary to the free mobility of services in the EU. The licensing regulations at national level are clearly intended to limit access and make the data content more profitable.

    I personally believe that it also constitutes discrimination because it withholds easy access to multi-language diversity - something the European Commission acknowledges as well.

    I certainly know the case of C-403/08 Karen Murphy but does anybody also hold other legal knowledge or theories?

    Walter Demmelhuber · Friedrich-Alexander Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg

    Hello Carsten,

    the best example where the EU meddles with private enterprises is in reducing and actually starting in 2016 killing roaming cost for mobile phones.

    Another example would be that grey imports of cars are completely legalized and what a mess the car manufacturers made out of this in the beginning.

    So why should this not apply to digital content?

    Regards, Walter

  • Does anyone know any literature concerning the workings of the GUE-NGL group in the European Parliament before 2008?

    I have evidence to show how they have increased in their representation but I would like literature to demonstrate how this group uses committees and resolutions to attempt to achieve their outcomes.

    Cristina Blanco Sío-López · European University Institute

    Some possibly useful secondary sources:


    Insstitutional data:

  • Tamir Libel added an answer:
    Where can I find the most up-to-date information on current EU Peace Operations (data and stats)?

    I am looking for realiable data and statistics on current EU Peace Operations, specially in subsaharan Africa (EUTM Mali, EUCAP Sahel, EUFOR RCA...). Also about Member States operations in Africa (France's Serval-Barkhane and so on).

    Tamir Libel · Universität Trier

    In case you are interested to compare also the member states' armed forces than the website of the European Defence Agency may be of interest.

  • Ines Ciolli added an answer:
    How do Euro crisis countries experience differentiated integration and to what extent are their policies predetermined by the ECB or troika?

    Hey all,

    I am currently working on two contributions dealing with Euro crisis countries. I have been able to review some literature on the matter at hand, but I was wondering whether there already is academic analysis on the following subjects:

    1. Are Euro crisis countries, which are receiving support under an adjustment programme a sort of "second-class state", causing differentiated integration within the Euro area? One thing I noticed is that some provisions of the Two-pack are being applied differently to programme countries, so I was wondering whether there is further analysis on that subject.

    2. Countries such as Greece and Spain have signed Memoranda of Understanding in dealing with the crisis. In this regard I would like to know whether there is analysis focusing on the political influence, the ECB receives in this setting.

    Ines Ciolli · Sapienza University of Rome

    Giovanni Boggero, Pasquale Annicchino, '‘Who Will Ever Kick Us Out?’: Italy, the Balanced Budget Rule and the Implementation of the Fiscal Compact' (2014) 20 European Public Law, Issue 2, pp. 247–261 ;

    Ain't necessarily so...useful? the balanced bidget rule in Italan constitution,  (or in my site in research gate) ad my paper in reseacrh gate presented in Oslo association of internaitonal constitutional law....

  • Lasha Markozashvili added an answer:
    Does the current crisis negatively affect the democratic quality of the European Union?
    The democratic deficit of the EU has been discussed for about twenty years. Although, latest reforms have strengthened the EU-Parliament, the democratic weaknesses still seem to be relevant in times of crisis. What does the crisis tell us about the democratic functioning of the EU?
  • Lasha Markozashvili added an answer:
    When and how will the given European integration really be ended ?
    Whether reading the old Balassa’s foreseeing model of economic integration, the current stage of the EU would show as already ended, but reality is much different.
  • Oliver Watteler added an answer:
    What could we learn from adoption of single currency in European Union?
    Regional integration.
    Can it be applied to other regional blocs?
    Oliver Watteler · GESIS - Leibniz-Institute for the Social Sciences

    For the European Union it was a major *political* project as well (de Grauwe 2013).* I think the Nobel Prize lecture by Thomas Sargent on "United States then and Europe now" holds valuable insights. He discusses the challenges of monetary and fiscal union:


  • Oliver Watteler added an answer:
    Is anyone conducting research on public opinion on regional integration?
    I would like to know if there are researchers conducting studies on public opinion on regional integration - whether in the European Union or in other regions.
    Oliver Watteler · GESIS - Leibniz-Institute for the Social Sciences

    There is a rich host of studies concerning European integration beginning in the 1950s. The United States Information Agency began asking citizens of the original European Coal and Steel Community in 1952. Based on that experience and some forerunners, the Information Service of the European Commission set up the Eurobarometer survey series in 1973. All surveys are available at GESIS:

    The European Social Survey (ESS) asks regular questions concerning European integration:

    There are literally hundreds of articles on "public support", "attitudes toward", or "public opinion" concerning European integration. Sara Hobolt's chapter in the 'The Oxford Handbook of the European Union' gives you a good overview of the topic:

    There are also critical aspects about public opinion toward European integration reflected in the following volume:

  • Robert Stephen Higgins added an answer:
    Should the CoE ensure universal human rights become more accessible in accordance with the Vienna Declaration, in the Post 2015 Development Agenda?

    The UN Post 2015 Development Agenda includes fundamental transformative shifts of poverty alleviation and sustainable development for all including vulnerable groups.  Can this be realistically achieved where universal human rights remain accessible unequally, and are not realised generally and globally by all UN member states? Should regional human rights bodies such as the Council of Europe play a greater role in the promotion and protection of universal human rights ? 

    Robert Stephen Higgins · Human Rights League of the Horn of Africa

    Ade,  I perused the referenced web site and first have to tell you that I don't believe "social and economic rights" are true human rights. They can be traced to the proposition that need begets a right to have that need fulfilled by other people. I don't see an implicit link between need and a right. Rather, that link must be put in place by those who want it to exist. In doing so they will refer to their morality (which is chosen), values (also chosen), ability to help, the priority of the matter, and in some cases the danger of helping. The decision to help is optional and optional rights cannot be universal rights which are compelling on everyone.

    The actions and inactions of the government in the reference do transgress real human rights, however. It would be too long to elaborate on this here. Instead, I refer to  my web site and my book on rights that is available there.

  • Michael Bruter added an answer:
    Where can I find an overview or the data of the voter turnout of Young Europeans (16-29) at European elections (1979-2014)?

    Neither the commission, nor the parliament (or Eurostat) are providing this information in a comprehensive way.

    For the elections of 2004 onwards post-election reports exist (

    So I would rather need information for the elections before 2004. Thank your for your support!


    Michael Bruter · The London School of Economics and Political Science

    Bear in mind that any such information is always based on survey evaluation and not actual electoral roll data. As a result, different surveys can come up with fairly different estimates of participation by age groups (on some election types, differences can easily reach 10 percentage points). This is especially the case to the extent that turnout is a "socially desirable" behaviour and we do not always agree on the specific extent to which different types of individuals are likely to lie about their vote. This is still the best we can get so it is fine to use it ,but the distinction is important to bear in mind.

  • Is the European Union democratic?
    This question is vital for each european citizen. I was one of the two million of signatories of the European Citizens’ Initiative, “One of Us”, which was vetoed by the European Commission illegitimately and anti-democratically.
    Alfonso Diestro Fernández · National Distance Education University

    Dear all, 

    I think that the European Union will be truly democratic when the EU belongs to the citizens and not ("only") to the members States. They can easily ignore European initiatives in the cooperation politics areas... Usually, they have never shown sufficient forward-looking vision to go beyond national interests in favour of a greater convergence, such as occurs with common policies. Right now, the austerity's strategy seems to be against civil (and Human) rights in Europe and their welfare state.

    Best regards. 

  • Could you recommend key publications on social network analysis for the study of socio-political relations and democratic decision-making?

    I would also be interested in interrelated network visualisation tools as a point of departure for the analysis of evolving patterns of democratic decision-making. The main case study is the European Union, but it will be enlarged to relations with third countries as part of EU International Relations, thus including a comparative regional integration and global governance perspective.

    Cristina Blanco Sío-López · European University Institute

    Thabk you for this very useful reply, as well as for your advice regarding the introduction to Ucinet. I totally agree on the very promising research potential of modelling evolution patterns. Thanks again.

  • Kevin Stoda added an answer:
    In terms of educational system integration, how does the ASEAN strategy differ from that of the European Union?

    The ASEAN Integration 2015 compels member countries to align and harmonize their educational system with each other.  How will it affect an individual's preferred profession or career?  How much will be the financial burden of a country in relation to its capacity to pay, i.e., cost of schooling per capita?  What would be its expected impact to the culture and social standing of the population?  In what way will an educational system integration empower the people to make them active participants of political processes and governance?

    Kevin Stoda · Salalah College of Technology

    Dear Gerry,

    Would you say that some countries are much further along in following ASEAN guidelines in education than others?  For example, let us say we would or could  compare all the ASEAN countries--which are the most often attempting to follow the guidelines in various fields

  • Petra Schneider added an answer:
    Does “waste hierarchy” policy really work across EU countries?

    This question derives from following link  which reveals that 99 percent of Sweden’s waste is now reused ! Ops… in Romania is quite opposite.. 99 percent of waste is disposed in landfills ?! ...The core issue is: how can New Member States face with the same EU requirements as old ones... which have many years of experience in the recycling & treatment sector  supported by a wealthy economy ? 

    Dear Florin,

    this answer comes from a practitioner, who is working for the implementation of integrated waste management systems in Europe and also worked long time in Romania. The project "Technical Assistance for Preparation of 5 Projects in the Environmental Sector (Integrated Waste Management Systems for the Counties Botosani, Calarasi, Vaslui, Suceava, Olt, Romania), ISPA 2005/RO/16/P/PA/001-04" we prepared from 2008 to 2011 and the project "Technical Assistance for Management and Supervision ISPA Contracts in the Solid Waste Sector in Arges” EuropeAid/122694/D/SER/RO" from 2007 to 2011. Form this activities we have a quite good overview on the waste management situation in Romania, especially as there were three 5-counties projects in parallel (all projects included a survey of the existing situation). As short summary to answer your question I can state the following: for the moment there are not quite good recycling activities in Romania, but they will be very soon. The current financing and implementation period of the EU ends in the end of 2015 (even there is alsready asked a prolonging of time, because the tendering of the works goes slowly), but all waste management investments are designed to be in compliance with the European recycling targets. As usual, things are going a bit more slowly in Romania, but they go forward, and in this regard I can give you an update of the projects mentioned above (this is the project "Technical assistance during implementation of the Integrated Waste Management within 5 Counties (Botosani, Calarasi, Vaslui, Suceava, Olt) which is going from 2011 to 2015, financed by the EU funds through the county councils. The current status is that in Botosani and Suceava the project implementation is nearly finished, the recycling facilities are implemented, the new landfills are built, only some closures of old landfills are not fully ready yet. In Vaslui, Olt and Calarasi the new landfill is under construction, the recycling infrastructure (bins, sorting plant, composting facilities) are under implementation. Also all the waste management facilities in Arges are mostly implemented, I visited some of them this summer, and I was very glad. The Romanian collegues there told me that the infrastructure works very well. This status is true for a lot of counties in Romania. A collegue of mine worked in a parallel project in Mures (he worked before also in Piatra Neamt), there the project was finalised this summer, so we have the overview also for other counties, and we see good progress. Some counties are in delay, like Baia Mare, but in general, there will be a modern infrastructure for integrated waste management implemented in the next years in all the Romania. For "our" counties I can tell you, that even there will maybe be a prolonging of time latest in 2016 all the infrastructure and the accompanying public awareness activities will be implemented. I think, this is a reason to look optimistic in the future. And coming to your question: how can New Member States face with the same EU requirements as old ones ? I think, this is possible because the implemented systems will have the same standard like in the old EU member states, but are adapted to the local requirements. What I can tell you from my experience as a German (in Germany the strategy is "Zero-Waste until 2020") is, that the education of the public to use the waste management infrastructure sufficiently will take longer, but also there I am optimistic, because I worked with very engaged people in the county councils in Romania.

    Best regards,


  • Eddie Seva See added an answer:
    Is anyone aware of studies that have addressed the specific issue of knowledge transfer impact on productivity in agricultural in recent times?

    To see trends in world and EU countries in last 40-50 years, money amounts in R&D and knowlegde transfer according agriculture (crop and cereals particularly) and where can be proven positive impact on productivity growth rate. 

    Eddie Seva See · Bicol University

    Magdalena, please try or and search impact assessment, or

  • Pierantonios Papazoglou added an answer:
    Does anyone have an experience in studying the problem of academic mobility in European Union and in CIS?
    I am going to study opportunities of academic mobility implementation in Ukraine.
    Pierantonios Papazoglou · University of Glasgow

    As the Coordinator of the EURAXESS Cyprus Services, I would suggest that you look into the policy documents available on "Mobility" (of researchers), in the Library of the pan-European EURAXESS Network, at:

    It may not be exactly on Ukraine, but it should provide you with a solid "background" on policies and studies regrading academic and research mobility at the European level.

  • Pierantonios Papazoglou added an answer:
    Are Brokerage and partnering events targeting for EU funding useful?

    One more interesting event connecting actors in business and research in order to establish consortia for EU grat applications has been announced (see below).

    On one hand, it reads very promising for researchrs who would like to enter the EU scene and become part of a consortium. On the other hand, I have my doubts whether  experienced consortia leaders would go there in order to find new partners.

    What do you think? Will someone other than newcomers join this event?

    Here are the data:

    Healthcare Brokerage Event MEDICA 2014

    On the occasion of MEDICA 2014, the global No. 1 meeting place for the medical sector, ZENIT GmbH together with the Healthcare Sector Group of the Enterprise Europe Network will organise the international Brokerage Event. The aim is to assist enterprises, universities and research institutions in finding partners in Europe for product development, manufacturing and licensing agreements, joint ventures or other types of partnership.

    This international Healthcare Brokerage Event at MEDICA fair has a tradition of more than 15 years now. In 2013 the brokerage event had more than 240 participants from about 30 countries with more than 800 meetings.

    Pierantonios Papazoglou · University of Glasgow

    As a National Contact Point for FP7 and now Horizon 2020, I would say that - if properly organised (e.g. pre-scheduled meetings, short presentations, "speed-dates", academia-private sector interaction, etc) -  then such Brokerage events are quite useful and could be fruitful in terms of creating partnerships for potential submissions to EU grants. For networking of the sort (that is; with the scope of creating potential consortia for EU proposals), it is also very good to consider the COST actions ( 

  • Magali Gravier added an answer:
    What would happen if the UK left the EU?
    I know this is an incredibly complex and multifaceted issue. At this moment I am looking for ideas on how to approach this question.
    Magali Gravier · Copenhagen Business School

    Regarding the impact of a BREXIT on the UK and the likelihood of it, it seems to me that we first need to grasp a bigger/broader picture: the UK, as a state, is in a very difficult and challenging phase of its history. In other words, I would not separate this from next week’s referendum on the Scottish independence. Indeed, taken together, both issues show that the UK as a political unit is undergoing a phase of extreme turbulence where its identity and cohesion is challenged internally (who wants to “play” the UK “game”?) and externally (with whom does the UK want to “play” a “bigger game”?). Although it is difficult to say how the SCOTIND (;-) ) referendum will impact on the BREXIT issue, this is certainly a part of the equation. As Renan wrote in Qu’est-ce qu’une nation? a nation is a daily plebiscite. This daily plebiscite is put in question at the moment in the UK. The capacity of UK people and decision makers to renew the plebiscite of the UK as a political entity (internally) and of the UK as part of a bigger political entity (externally – with the EU) is a very important step in order to prevent SCOTIND and BREXIT. Failure to do so could lead to a collapse internally (SCOTIND) and externally (BREXIT). Impacts would be difficult to assess because there would be direct and indirect (domino) effects. Banks are starting to elaborate scenarios of relocation outside of the City (Dublin? Paris?) to remain in the EU and why, by the same token, set foot in the Eurozone. What would a UK-minus-Scotland-and-outside-of-the-EU with a very much reduced financial sector look like? What kind of deal would the UK be able to maintain with the EU? With whom would it play? The EFTA again? If the UK chooses to stay in the EU, on which basis would it do so? Here to, the plebiscite needs to be renegotiated. The present “deal” doesn’t seem satisfactory anymore. So stay and continue without changing stuff could be just like postponing the divorce without having a serious talk about mariage. In other words, should the UK wish to remain a member state of the EU, on which grounds would it do this? You can’t just through a potential divorce at the head of your spouse and end up saying “Well, I’ve thought about it, and, uh, nope, I prefer not to divorce, come on, honey, let’s forget about it and stay together.” That can’t be a sustainable strategy.
    It is also important to realize that the EU would be impacted by the BREXIT. I am very fond of using the concept of empire to analyse the EU. Empires expand and shrink. Up to now, the only experience of losing territory was when Greenland left the EU in 1985. BREXIT would be a phase of territorial shrinkage for the EU. BREXIT could be a blow to the EU like the loss of Egypt was to the Byzantine Empire. I.e. losing a territory of significant importance (Egypt “fed” the empire with wheat; the UK brings significant financial and industrial wealth in the EU). Both units survived the separation. They were impacted by it, but they survived it. But the question is the same as for the UK. If the UK decides to stay, what will the EU do? Accepting the threat of a divorce and a change of mind, because “Nope, the UK prefers not to divorce.” can’t be enough. The EU should engage in serious talks with the UK about the basis for a renewed relationship and commitment.

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