- Soumitra K Mallick added an answer:Is there a correlation between the volume of traded credit default swap (CDS) and the actual probability of default?
More precise: Is a company more likely to go bankrupt, if there are a lot CDS traded "betting on its default"?
Are there any researches about statistical and causal relations? I could not find publications and I am concerned that ones can not find reliable information about the volume, as CDS are traded OTC.
It would be great if one has an idea how to get these data or maybe knows about existing research.
Dear Prof. Wilkes,
I cannot answer your question about CDS but I can add that in the case of Indian Emerging Economy regime banks post globalisation, the bad loan assets which were swapped with regular loan assets by debt restructuring called NPA assets had an improvement in their probability of default over decades and actually when geometrically plotted showed continuous convergence by the larger banks overtaking the convergence of smaller banks, hence showing convergence by the "overtaking criterion" applied to turnpike models. You can if you want to take a look at my work with my coauthors on NPAs on my RG webpage. I hope that helps your research. SKMFollowing
- Subhash C. Kundu added an answer:Does media coverage of financial news affect stock market movements ?
media coverage and analyzing news affect people reaction to and new news.
Past research has shown mass media can influence people’s beliefs or behavior in general. Such studies are at least partly behind advertisers’ willingness to pay higher rates to ensure their spots appear in popular newspapers and magazines and on air during time slots when the largest audience is believed to be watching or listening.
Over the years, the media has devoted more and more attention to the stock market and its key players, such as analysts. Recent research shows the media plays an important role both in the stock price formation process and in accounting settings. Such research, however, focuses primarily on firms and not analysts.Following
- Soumitra K Mallick added an answer:Where is the state of financial risk management and financial supervision of large firms compared to six years ago?I have just returned from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's excellent 2013 Financial Markets Conference "Maintaining Financial Stability: Holding a Tiger by the Tail". Presenters included Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, Professor John Taylor (Taylor Rule fame), Columbia's Professor Calomiris, Bank of England's Andy Haldane among many others. Topics included stress tests, a new proposed bankruptcy chapter for financial firms, the usefulness or otherwise of VAR, Too Big to Fail (TBTF) and Dodd-Frank.
I came away with the impression that people don't think TBTF is fixed and that Dodd-Frank's orderly resolution authority would still lead to backdoor bailouts. That stress tests in the U.S. on banks and SiFis are improving and useful but there is room for more improvement. The push for simple rules over the complexity of Basle III is still alive. Everyone with an interest in the field should follow BoE's Haldance (Director of Financial Stability).
Thoughts on the topic?
With digitisation proceeding at a brisk pace information is becoming much more readily available so that you can calculate any kind of betas very quickly of course subject to certain discretionary assumptions at the top level. Hence Financial Stability has become much more a Financial Stability Algorithm problem not for.e.g. subjectivity wars problem over intrepretation of norms and statutes for e.g.Following
- managerial overconfidence and bank risk taking Hi everyone..
Could anybody help me to find literature related to managerial overconfidence and bank risk taking?
Perhaps i can provide you some information. You may have a look at the following papers:
Managerial Overconfidence and Bank Risk Taking: A Cross-Country Analysis, WP (2012-2013)
Hsiao-Jung Chen, Chao-Hung Chen. This paper investigates whether improvements in governance can help to mitigate the adverse effects of managerial overconfidence on bank risk taking.
Laeven, L. and R. Levine, 2009, “Bank governance, regulation, and risk-taking,”
Journal of Financial Economics 93, 259-275.
Levine, R., 2004, “The corporate governance of banks: A concise discussion of
concepts and evidence,” Working Paper, The World Bank.
Anderson, R. C. and D. R. Fraser, 2000, “Corporate control, bank risk taking,
and the health of the banking industry,” Journal of Banking and Finance 24,
Black, D. and J. Gallemore, 2012, “Bank executive overconfidence and
delayed expected loss recognition,” Working paper,
- Does a low correlation between cash flow and investment need to make a firm financially constrained?
What is the behavior of a "high-hedging needs" firm at refinancing points? What about its profitability impact on the financial package it will choose/ accept from the bank or the market? Do you know papers on that subject?
Thanks you Massimo!
Your paper is interesting and relevant. It is quite different from the Hadlock and Pierce approach (2010) RFS vol 23, N°5,p 1909 -1940 that tested the Kaplan and Zingales index (1997) or the Whited and Wu index (2006). Moreover as you said firm size and age are relevant for predicting financial constrants.
Thanks you one more timeFollowing
- Tobias Nell added an answer:Which methodologies or models can be applied to measure the quality of accounting information through the disclosure of financial statements?The quality shown in the financial statements accounting information (the conceptual framework of IFRS and FASB, as well as by standard-setting) is treated based on the relevance and faithful representation of the same, keeping the economic substance of the transactions summarized. To declare that it meets the IFRS or national GAAP is not enough to measure quality. Several studies conducted have focused on measuring the amount of disclosure made in accordance with the standards set and asked how we can measure the quality of mandatory disclosure and also generate inferences or proxies for voluntary disclosure, such as "Theories for Disclosure" (Verrecchia) and "Relevance of Accounting Information" (Barth et al).
I would like to answer your question in the field of disclosure quality.
There are some authors that differentiate between quantity and quality (e.g., content and presentation).
For a general discussion see:
- Hassan/Marston (2010), Disclosure measurement in the empirical accounting literature, (http://ssrn.com/abstract=1640598).
"New" or at least different approaches for measuring disclosure quality can be found in (e.g.):
- Beretta/Bozzolan (2008), Quality versus Quantity, Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance (23), p. 333-375
- Beattie et a. (2004), A methodology for analysing and evaluating narratives in annual reports, Accounting Forum (28), p. 205-236
- Bloomfield et al. (2015), Does Coordinated Presentation Help Credit Analysts Identify Firm Characteristics?, Contemporary Accounting Research (32), p. 507-527
- How do I characterize a board of directors primarily focused on advising and not on monitoring?
Boards of directors have two main activities: Advising and Monitoring. The last quoted role was extensively treated in the literature. For example, the auditing committee was examined with a lot of details. But what about the advising part of the role of the board of directors? How to measure the implication of directors in the advising side of the board's activity?
Thank you to al of you!
international experience, as well as professional experience in finance, or in communcation are precious to develop good advising. I think that too busy boards are detrimental. But some interlocking members between several boards may be useful. But I am concerned with the importance of committees (auditing, nominating, compensation,...) and their impacts on the advising task of the board.Following
- Bola Babajide added an answer:Anyone know any database(s) that hold information about financial derivative instruments used by UK firms for hedging purposes? - Annual data pleaseNeed annual foreign exchange, interest rate and commodity contracts committed to by UK non-financial firms
There seems to be no database for the data I was looking for I resulted to firms financial statements. Depending on your Data type, you may check Thomson One Banker for aggregate derivative usage.
- Mohd Hafizuddin Syah Bangaan Abdullah added an answer:The impact of Enterprise Risk Management on firm performanceI'm interested in this topic for my PhD research but haven't look into it in deep. Can anyone advise me?
modern finance theories posit that shareholder can diversified by themselves through diversification. But in the case of aggregate downfall e.g. economic crisis/ financial crisis, diversification might not works effectively or not work at all. So in my opinion, firm should implements ERM to protect its shareholder for economic aggregate downfall.Following
- Sergei Esipov added an answer:How can I manage too much volatility? What are the pricing implications?
We provide some insight and concerns about cross asset portfolio diversification in relation with increased market volatility. While generally across asset diversification reduces volatility, we need to re-calibrate models (reassign correlation values). What should we consider the general correlation between asset classes?Following
- Mark Vaughan added an answer:Do we need to categorize business lines as required by Basel when measuring required capital to account for operational risk or we can customize this?
There are eight business lines when calculating required capital to account for operational risk
When you are measuring regulatory capital for a financial institution this would be the case, otherwise you are free to use different categories the best match the business model.Following
- Frank S. Skinner added an answer:Research on risk free curves in emerging markets?
African countries has limited data available, how to accurately price their financial instruments, how to go about this
If you have some sort of short term t-bill rate, say a prime rate or a bankers acceptance, and a few reasonably well priced bonds, you should be able to estimate a yield curve using Nelson and Seigle (1987). We have used this technique when estimating a AA bond yield curve so in principle you should be able to estimate a sovereign yield curve under fairly weak data requirements. See the paper below. You can Google Nelson and seigle (1987).
(2005) Skinner, FS. and Ioannides, M. , FRS17 and the sterling double a corporate yield curve, Journal of Business Finance and Accounting 32 (5-6) : 1141- 1169Following
- Stavros Stavroyiannis added an answer:Is there an expected Shortfall for log-returns?
When dealing with historical data and log-returns, if someone finds the Value-at-Risk then the translation to money via regular returns is $VaR=P(1-exp(-VaR)) where P is the portfolio value. Anybody knows how to translate Expected Shortfall (Conditional VaR) from historical log-returns?
Thanks. You are correct. Under this perspective, since the optimum weights have a small bias due to differences in the covariance matrix and returns, I should probably start from the beginning with regular returns.Following
- Satydev Yadav added an answer:What do you understand by Quantitative Risk Assessment?A dictionary definition says: "Quantitative Risk Assessment is Use of measurable, objective data to determine asset value, probability of loss, and associated risk(s)".
Nevertheless in various fields (Environment, Finance, Occupational Health and Safety etc) and in different countries the meaning attributed to QRA differs sometimes significantly. Being highly interested in the field I invite you to brainstorming around this question. Many professionals, researchers and experts should be interested and involved. Thank you.
Quantitative risk assessment may also be defined as the method to know the level of crisis incur due to unwanted factors in supply chain management. There is no unit to know the quantity of risk it represented in quantitative way by assuming a suitable scale for indicating the level of impact. I read the answer attached by Johnson Eze, and Roland they told very nice about QRA and I got a motivation that I am thinking in some way good about same. Thank you sir, Johnson and RolandFollowing
- E. Ray Canterbery added an answer:What's the meaning of detecting the cross-correlation of spot exchange rate and forward exchange rate?
I have read several papers on the cross-correlation between spot exchange rate and forward exchange rate, but find little economic meaning of that relationship.
In my opinion,export or import-company can avoid exchange rate risk by hedging with forward contracts. The central bank needs to adjust the monetary policy based on the changing relationship over time.
Any theory to analyze the meaning of spot and forward exchange rate?or any papers?
See E. Ray Canterbery, "The Modern Theory of Foreign Exchange and the Net Speculative Residual (Southern Economic Journal, Vol. 41, No. 2 (October 1974), pp. 182-187, and the articles cited therein.
E. Ray CanterberyFollowing
- Mari Latoja added an answer:What are the profitability determinants of Palestinian micro firms? how it can influence the profitability of the firm?
Firm profitability is generally regarded as an important precondition for long-term firm survival and success; moreover, the variable significantly affects the firm’s achievement of other financial goals. Another factor explaining the importance of firm profitability is its effect on economic growth, employment, innovation, and technological change. However, due to increasing competition, improved efficiency, and pricing pressure, firms are experiencing greater difficulty attaining the required profitability. The question of what factors determine profitability should accordingly be one of high priority for both researchers and practitioners, including managers, investors, debt holders, and policy makers.Following
- What is the effect of the securitization transactions on credit risk in an emerging economy?
There is no clear evidence regarding the effect of securitization transactions on the risk in the financial system. The literature about this subject is incipient for emerging economies and, in particular, for Latin American countries. A possible justification for this fact can be a lack of a developed financial system in these countries.
if credit risk is transferred by selling (securitizing) a loan, the bank's incentive to credit-screen and monitor declines. Keys and al (2010) QJE find that securitized pools of subprime loans had default rates hat were 10% to 25% higher than similar mortgages that were not securitized. Elul (2011) present additional evidence consistent with reduced screening of securitized mortgages.
If investors in mortgage and asset-backed Securities recognize the loan-selling bank's suboptimal-screening, they should discount the value of securitizred loans, forcing the bank to internalize this inefficiency.
In others words, a bank de cision to sell or retain a loan would weight the economic benefits of risk transfer against the economic costs of inefficient screening. (see Han and al (2015) Journal of finance.
- Ola Sholarin added an answer:Does the deposit insurance system increase financial risks or not?
Many counties adopted the explicit insurance deposit system, and some think it works well because it may decrease the tendency of high risk activity taken by banks. however, it seems some guys don't agree with that and they mentioned it may trigger more risks, like moral hazard. Can anyone share your opinions or recommmend some materials?
Deposit insurance provides protection to savers against the risk of loss of their deposits. As such, it offers incentives for savers. This, in turn, enables financial insterediaries (such as banks) to channel the deposit to deficit areas to engender economic growth.
Although deposit insurance could trigger morral hazard, it does not pose risk to an economy, provided financial markets are efficient and sound regulatory measures are in place.Following
- Dávid Zibriczky added an answer:What do you think of the "health" of the Capital Asset Pricing Model?
The CAPM is based on a robust theoretical framework, but empirically demonstrated weakness. The beta does not seem to be the only factor that can explain the risk-return relationship. Do you really think that the CAPM is dead?
We have studied CAPM whether it's linearity holds in extreme conditions or not. We found that in come cases the nullhypothesis of CAPM linearity should be rejected. You can find more details here: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/227358232_Non-parametric_and_semi-parametric_asset_pricing
We also studied the capability of capturing risk in one meausre and predicting future returns for securities. We compared one factor models, like standard deviation, CAPM beta, and additional two entropy based methods. Based on the results we found both advantages and disadvantages. CAPM beta is good for explaining returns in short term, but it less effective predict them for the next period because the value of CAPM beta for each securities is changing with a high variance over the time. More details here: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/270221149_Entropy-based_financial_asset_pricing
Overally I think the theory is usable, however it has weaknesses. It can be a good basis for a more efficient multi-factored models, like Fama-French model (SMB-HML), Carhart model (SMB-HML-Moment) or additional factors like liquidity or entropy.Following
- Bo Jellesmark Thorsen added an answer:Does anyone have experience with research in infrastructure finance risks?I am undertaking a research on risk in Infrastructure project finance where I have ranked questions developed for my questionnaire. My interest is to see which risks are more severe within each of the nine categories that I have profiled (ie each category has 5 sub risks). What would be the best statistical outputs to analyse this data? Besides wanting to know which risks are more severe within each risk category, I would be interested in knowing the differences in the responses between the public and private sector. Your thoughts?
Following up on Pauls second point about the ability/willingness of officials to answer in a usefull way, I think that you would be well adviced to study Professor Bent Flybjergs work on risks and failures in large infrastructure projects. Flyvbjerg is professor at Oxford these days. The problem is, that one reason why risks appear large is that they are often ignored (and hence not planned for/adapted to) in the initial stages of the decision making. Flyvbjergs work is not as much quantitatve as an anthropological/sociological study of a phenomenon, but if you could take his finding sinto account somehow, and perhaps elicit information of value to that discussion, that could improve your contribution to the field.Following
- Amin Babaei falah added an answer:How can I measure the real systematic risk in an industry where not all the related companies have published their financial reports?
Imagine I am to determine the systematic risk of pharmaceutical industry in a certain country, but more than 20 percent of the active companies have not provided their financial information. Is there any option for at least a good estimation?
But lets for the sake of argument, say that there are other good indicators for measuring the systematic risk besides Beta. How can I compare them and come to a conclusion that which indicator is showing systematic risk better in a certain short or long time horizon?Following
- Paul Koszarny added an answer:Should we consider at present the OTC Derivatives level a Macroeconomic threat?
Considering BIS current data on the amount of OTC derivatives contracts , the "betting game" might be valued 10 times the world GDP value.
Do you see any further finantiarization risk related to the present main Central Banks monetary policies , deferring the end of QE and low interest rates?
I entirely agree with you. The problem will become acute as soon as hot money evaporates. That's best described in the Minkovsky space how suddenly "strong" trends break and crashes follow when liquidity disappears. We have seen a harbinger already. On January 15 EURCHF crashed in the matter of a few minutes leaving a lot to think what were HFT funds doing then, actually why they disappeared from the market like the Chinese Wall in a Copperfield's trick? Prepare for the worst, the best will take care of itself. Quite recent developments on DJIA show that when the market is purposefully left by big hands to the public for a sentiment test, the index goes down quite fast. People do not give trust to the present uptrend which began from the lows of 2009. Is it supported by some crutches? I am of the opinion that we may have some new legislative initiative disallowing large leveraging when things start looking very nasty and provided there is someone who can imagine even the worst possible meltdowns underway. After all, what do you think about reducing the financial risk by onetime forced change of leveraging rules applicable to all uncovered open positions? The public would cheer to the idea and hail the saviors. I think that financial engineering tools will be considered sooner than later. Catastrophies deferred like deferred payment.
- Nazeeh Ghatasheh added an answer:Risk measurement in banking - do you know any examples of classification for risk measurement?I am looking for the classification of risk measurement in banking (credit, liquidity, market, operational). I have some ideas, but maybe I am reinventing the wheel. For example, you can measure risk directly (eg. probabilities) or indirectly (LTV or maturity mismatch). Any suggestions?
You may take a look at these publicationsFollowing
- Dr Mamunur Rashid added an answer:Could you refer me some studies on micro-equity experiences (success, failures) particularly in developing countries and MENA region?
For example Micro-equity vs. microcredit? or Micro-equity vs. islamic microfinance?
Email me at email@example.comFollowing
- Ekow Yamoah added an answer:How do I measure the asymmetrical information between stakeholders?
In general, it is acknowledged that the managers are better informed than the shareholders. Also, controller shareholders seem to be better informed than the minority shareholders. How to measure the information asymmetry? Can we connect information asymmetry with the dividend policy of companies?
For instance, some studies prove that "Firms that pay consistently high dividends have lower insider returns than do firms that pay consistently low dividends" (e.g., Kenneth Khang and Tao-Hsien Dolly King, Financial Management, Vol. 35, No. 4, 2006).
Thank you in advance!
i will concur with the bid-ask-spread. Simply, the spread will be a good theory to measure information asymmetryFollowing
- Pierre Mévellec added an answer:How can Cost Driver be identified, beside brain storming methodology?
- Identifiying Cost Driver for Activity Based Costing (ABC) in Management Accounting (for internal controlling)
- Cost Driver (in German: "Kostentreiber") in addition to Cost Type ("Kostenart"), Cost Center ("Kostenstelle") and Cost Object ("Kostenträger")
- Cost Driver as defined by AccountingCoach: http://www.accountingcoach.com/blog/what-is-a-cost-driver
I am surprise by the wording of the question.
A driver is always the expression of a law of causality. A law of causality cannot be sought by brainstorming. It is the direct expression of what is experienced by the people concerned.
It must be recognized that the literature on the ABC is sometimes ambiguous. It evokes the choice of the driver, suggesting that the options are multiple.
There are actually several options but which have nothing randomness. The analyst or project group is facing two options:
- The first relates to the quality of the desired causal relationship, and it can be put in relation with the homogeneity of the activity. If we take as an example the activity “Vendors accounting” two drivers are always cited by the accountants: the number of invoices and number of invoice lines. Referring to the words of Kaplan quoted by G. Cokins in a recent comment, the question is then whether we prefer a simple and rough driver (the number of invoices) or an accurate system requiring new data (the number of invoice lines). The choice between these two options can of course rely on a statistical analysis of the composition of the invoices. If the establishment of the ABC aims to the simple calculation of cost and local productivity measurement, one of these options will probably preferred.
- The second choice is relative to the preference for immediate (short-term) causality law or the underlying causality (long term). To continue the same example, the lines of invoices correspond to specific part numbers. The number of part number is therefore a potential driver. But it varies under the influence of factors unrelated to activity ‘Vendors accounting” but will have an indirect impact on it. If the establishment of the ABC aims to develop a transversal vision of the organization and cooperation between activities within process, this choice should be preferred.
I hope that these explanations, gained from a long field experience, will convince you that the choice of a driver is not an exercise of brainstorming but a confrontation to the field supplemented by questioning on the ambition pursued through the implementation of ABC.Following
- Sergei Esipov added an answer:Can I use Real Default Probabilities in Wrong Way Risk analysis?
I am writing a master thesis and I am stuck on a question, therefore I would be more than thankful if any of you could help me.
I am modeling Wrong Way Risk. I use an over the counter forward contract between two counterparties. Let's say that I want to know how much I can lose due to my counterpart defaulting. The basic formula would be:
Probable Loss=Prob. of default*Expected Value of the contract*(1-Recovery rate)
To compute the value of the contract I use risk neutral valuation method. My issue is that I want to calibrate the probability of default from real default events, thus I will have a real world probability of default (not the one implied by the market spreads). I am allowed to do so? If no, what would be the alternative, valuing the forward contract under real world expectations?Following
- Ting Fa Margherita Chang added an answer:What is the prospect of success for the "internationalization" of the Chinese currency: RMB?
China's global economic activities account for 12% of global GDP, yet the Chinese currency is used only in about 2 - 3% of global trade volumes. Currently, the US dollars, Euro and Yen still dominates the international trade scenes.
-What are the implications of the "internationalization" of RMB?
-How would the US dollar and Euro be affected?
-What challenges are/will be faced by China if RMB is internationalized?
Dear Bruno & David,
interesting is the question of the Central Bank. The Fed can make use of the monetary policy with the operation of the monetary base (increase in the money supply by buying bonds) to finance the deficit. So the US has bailed out the banks and have come out of the crisis.
Until recently, the European Central Bank could not buy the bonds to cover the deficit of the countries in crisis. The EU countries had only the lever of fiscal policy. To cover the deficit, the income and assets of households and businesses have been squeezed (very high levels of taxation). The latter, by reaction, have opted for the liquidity preference and have fallen into a liquidity trap. The result was the reduction of the velocity of circulation of money, and the deepening of the crisis with firm failures and higher unemployment.
Moral: it is not enough that there is a central bank, but it must have the power to expand the monetary base and then to do a real monetary policy. If a country do not have this power, they do not trigger neither investments nor consumptions and the Keynesian multiplier can not operate.
Have a good night.Following
- Are there any empirical models incorporating risks while re-issuing a debt offering?
Many companies extend their debt maturities by re-issuing debt. Proceeds of the new debt are used to pay off existing debt. More and more companies might be tempted to follow this trend.
However, this re-issuing has certain risks involved. Are there any research papers which add some color on the above topic?
I can advise you to have a look at the following papers:
J. Harford, S. Klasa W. Maxwell, 2014, "Refinancing risk and cash holdings" Journal of Finance, Vol 69, N°3, p 975 – 1012. (change of interest rate structure)
M. Faulkender, M. Flannery, K. Hankins J. Smith, 2012, "Cash flows and leverage adjustments", Journal of Financial Economics, Vol 103, 632 – 646. They speak about market timing and liquidity of the market at the end of the paper.
Tewari, Byrd, Ramanlal 20125 "Callable bonds, reinvestment risk, and credit rating improvements: role of the call premium" Journal of financial economoics 2015, 115 p 349 -360. They speak about credit risk change)Following
About Financial Risk Management
This group aims to be a link between researchers interested by financial risk management and modelisation.