Earthquake Forecasting and Geocataclysm

Earthquake Forecasting and Geocataclysm

  • Max Wyss added an answer:
    What are everyone's thoughts after the verdict for the L'Aquila trial?
    Given the verdict and subsequent discussions on the topic, I'd be interested in thoughts on probabilities in risk mitigation and hazards assessment
    Max Wyss · International Centre for Earth Modeling Foundation, Geneva

    Justice has finally been served in this case. The only person who committed errors has been convicted. However, the general problem of inadequate and misleading information of the world population on seismic risk remains.

    Wyss, M. (2012). The Earthquake Closet: Rendering Early-Warning Useful. Natural Hazards, 62(3), 927-935. doi: 10.1007/s11069-012-0177-6.

    Wyss, M., & Rosset, P. (2012). Mapping seismic risk: The current crisis. Natural Hazards. doi: 10.1007/s11069-012-0256-8.

    Wyss, M. (2015). Do probabilistic seismic hazard maps address the need of the population? In M. Wyss & S. Peppoloni (Eds.), Geoethics: Ethical Challenges and Case Studies in Earth Sciences (pp. 239-249). Waltham, Massachusetts: Elsevier. (published 25 Nov. 2014)

             
  • Gabriele Bernardini added an answer:
    What is the popular software to model evacuation in the aftermath of an earthquake?
    Evacuation.
    Gabriele Bernardini · Università Politecnica delle Marche

    Dear Umma,

    both geosimulation and @RISK seems to be very interesting tools. However, I think that the actual evacuation models denote many problems in simulation, expecially for their poor bases about human behaviors. The definition of model should be founded on experimental analysis of real cases. At the same time, the agent-based techniques (ABM) are able to effectively define the theoretical and operative simulation models for their rules-based aspects. This is very important especially in complex evacuation simulations, where people desires are not only connected to motion phenomena. Our research group was recently involved in a similar problem, and we provided a tool for simulating an earthquake evacuation in urban scenarios: EPES. This is based on the analysis of real world evacuations. EPES offers a combination between ABM for describing people desires and the Social Force model for describing people motion. EPES was validated through a cross-comparison with real evacuation data, and now we are trying to improve it from an operational point of view! I hope my answer will be useful for your question!

  • Fatih Bulut added an answer:
    Can we trust the density of earthquake events as an indicator for future events?
    We can plot the density of earthquake events, see attached file.
    The plots have been done with R packages 'sp' and 'spstat'.
    Can we export reliable results from such a plot?

    sometimes high density of earthquakes might even mean that there is an aseismic creep/slow earthquake lasting for hours/days. So you might interpret such an earthquake density to represent an upcoming earthquake while it might have already occurred during your precursory pattern. Please keep in mind that we are looking at a composite of very complex processes/interaction of structures that cannot be simply generalised. Please look at: Lohman, R. B., and J. J. McGuire (2007). Earthquake swarms driven by aseismic creep in the Salton Trough, California, J. Geophys. Res. 112, B04405, doi 10.1029/2006JB004596.

  • Julian Andres Lopez Isaza added an answer:
    Can pseudotachylites be related to mineralization trigger events?

    It's understood that earthquakes can be triggers of mineralizing events, but there is no evidence of a direct relationship between these events and the generation of pseudotachylites

    Julian Andres Lopez Isaza · National University of Colombia

    Hi Ioannis

    Thank you very much for your answer. Now is more clear.

    Best wishes

    jl

  • Shahid Ullah added an answer:
    Could someone please guide me on the process of generating synthetic seismic catalog?

     A link to some study materials with example/ publication /or software would be great.  

    Thanks a lot.

    Shahid Ullah · Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ

    Thanks Gabriele..Its very helpful..

  • S. Mohsen Haeri added an answer:
    Is there a laboratory in one of the Gulf countries performing cyclic direct simple shear & resonant column test?

    For research into geotechnical earthquake engineering analysis

    S. Mohsen Haeri · Sharif University of Technology

    Yes we do cyclic simple shear test and instead of resonant column we do bender element test that is a better substitution for resonant column test

  • Álvaro González added an answer:
    Can someone supply data on effective dates of operation for seismic stations used in the centennial database?
    Can someone please help me obtain the effective dates of operation, location and sensitivities for seismic stations used to create the centennial catalog? I am analyzing ~90 regions of the world for completeness of the series (including potential clumping or trends) for events >= M6.5? I have requested this from the USGS, but the request appears to be lost with no answer.
    Álvaro González · University of Zaragoza
    You are welcome!
    Best regards,
    Álvaro
  • Hardev Singh Virk added an answer:
    Why EQ prediction has not become possible even after 50 years when Radon precursory signals were recorded for Tashkent earthquake in 1966?
    Multi-parametric approach is better than a single precursor.
    Hardev Singh Virk · Sri Guru Granth Sahib World University (SGGS WU), Fatehgarh Sahib, India
    Mounir: I am sending U my Papers also using Radon as a Precursor.
  • Hirday Nath Dutta added an answer:
    Can dogs predict earthquakes ?
    Some articles tell us about animals can predict earthquakes, but I don't know how they can and what are the methods of measuring this.
    Kindly be clear in mind about the two words-prediction and precursor. Prediction is based on data and knowledge gathered in the past and certainly, animals do not have such a stock to have any kind of inference. They are concerned with precursor or precursors, which refer to the changes in physical, chemical, EM waves, infrasonic waves etc. These changes give us a feeling or a measurable signal so as to infer that there is going to be an earthquake within a reasonable time.

    We do not predict a thunderstorm but many times, when we come out of our office in the afternoon, the sky condition gives us a feeling that there is going to be rain or thunderstorm. This is what is called precursor. Each and every geophysical phenomenon has a precursor and we are mostly correct in our apprehensions.

    Thus, animals like elephant and dogs have better sensitivity to detect infrasonic waves and based on such precursory signals, we feel that they are able to sense an impending earthquake before we do. Thus, it is wrong to assume that dogs or for that matter any other animal, insect etc. can predict an earthquake. Yes, they are better equipped by nature to sense precursory signals much before the humans can sense. But, humans are developing sensors and systems and I am sure, the days are not far off when we will have a proven technology. If you are keen to have more on this subject, kindly write to me on my email hndutta@gmail.com
  • Amin Rashidi asked a question:
    Can we use vertical and horizontal components of earthquake records for relocation by HypoDD program?
    HypoDD.
  • Amin Esmail Khalil added an answer:
    How do we discriminate between deep and shallow small earthquakes?
    In a convergent margin, besides a good location (which is difficult), is there another analysis (spectral?) to perform to answer about the true location (interface contact or upper plate events)?
    Amin Esmail Khalil · University of Science Malaysia
    Qualitatively observe the surface wave amplitude. Shallow earthquakes usually have higher surface wave energy than deeper one
  • Michael Clark added an answer:
    How can astrometric observations be used to predict earthquakes, and how reliable are they?
    I'm preparing a presentation on earthquake prediction and trying to find new and improved methods. Any suggestions?
    Michael Clark · New Mexico State University
    Earthquakes frequency, especially the bigger ones have a tendency to be
    cyclical when the applied forces from the Sun and the Moon act in concert to
    apply larger gravitational forces than usual to the Earth, as when the
    Sun and Moon are both closer than usual, and there is a Full Moon.

    Certain peak forces occur in both 9 year, and 51 year cycles. These
    cycles and the associated larger earthquakes, and larger tides are
    explored extensively in the articles available from New Concepts In
    Global Tectonics in the issues in the last few years.

    The access to back issues is currently free on the Web.
    Use a Google Search for NCGT.
  • Pushan Dutta added an answer:
    Can anyone help with a wireless sensor for earthquake monitoring?
    I am highly interested in designing and developing a wireless sensor routing protocol for seismic analysis whereby data is acquired using sensor networks and is sent for analysis, there are two things which are to be kept in mind, location and data sensitivity. Is there anyone working on this theme who can share ideas as how to proceed in a efficient way.
    Pushan Dutta · Jadavpur University
    Can anybody share some data sets I am an electronics engineer
  • Hermann M. Fritz added an answer:
    Relation of earthquakes to sea floor ground motion and submarine slides?
    We are working on a manuscript on submarine strike-slip earthquakes, and whether they trigger turbidites that are seen in cores. The fault (North branch North Anatolian fault) cuts along the edges of 1200 m-deep bathymetric basins, in deep water...except through the center of one of the basins. The question is whether M7+ quakes 50 or 100 km away at the closest can trigger turbidites by seismic waves, including strong ground motion on the sea floor...like the near the shelf break a km shallower than the fault. One or more of the co-authors think that it would be tilting and sea floor deformation related to the quake, and I say no way except for local slumps.

    I brought up Los Angeles and the fact that engineers have presented and published that the ground motion from distant San Andreas quakes can be so strong and so long that it will bring down tall buildings. That is because of the post-Miocene sedimentary basin 5 km-deep beneath Los Angeles. The co-author said that this is related to free-surface effects between rock and air, while for the sea floor, it is often young sediment with velocity almost the same as velocity in water (P waves).

    Does anyone know of submarine slides triggered by quakes whose closest rupture is >50 km? Comments on the theory of how submarine slides are triggered?

    Thanks!
    Hermann M. Fritz · Georgia Institute of Technology
    The 12 January 2010 Haiti strike-slip earthquakes triggered two tsunamis, an obvious one near the source with a coastal landslide and an obscure one originating off the south coast of the southern peninsula - the latter source would be some 40 to 50 km south of the epicenter but remains to be identified on the seafloor. The below can be downloaded from my profile
    Fritz, H.M., J.V. Hillaire, E. Molière, Y. Wei, and F. Mohammed (2013). Twin tsunamis triggered by the 12 January 2010 Haiti earthquake. Pure Appl. Geophys., 170(9-10):1463-1474, doi:10.1007/s00024-012-0479-3.
  • Brandon Rapson added an answer:
    Can anyone point me in the right direction for an EWS specifically related to Bucharest/Varenca?
    I am working on a report looking at current Early Warning Systems in place in Romania relating to earthquakes.
    Brandon Rapson · Coventry University
    That's very interesting Alexander, I've been working on a small report for my degree in Disaster Management and Emergency Planning based on the Early Warning System in Bucharest. I will contact J.R. Ritter as you have suggested! Thank you very much for the help!
  • Pushan Dutta added an answer:
    Earthquake forecasting and observational research?
    Earthquake forecasting is an elusive goal many seismologist including me think could be made possible in the near future.A difficult approach earthquake forecasting will become simple if shearing strain of the environment and the bearing stress of the rock locally is known in advance. however the laboratory and real time seismic environments shows a different environment to the entire earthquake exogenetic and endogentic mechanisms.I have established that various quasi-static nucleation mechanisms exist which shows that earthquake short term forecasting is always in contrary to the elastic rebound hypothesis.There is always a triggering mechanism which works for earthquake nucleation process which is again occurs in a matter of few days. Please read my opinions and please suggest how I should proceed with further research work.
    It would be helpful if you can suggest where I may be able to apply for further research including phd and postdoc. Please read my study carefully and also suggest what other points could be included...
    Pushan Dutta · Jadavpur University
    I think if a triggering mechanism exist a function earthquake warning system based on location error analysis can be designed for the near future .If a location sensitive sensor network can be set up we can say when earthquake will take place.
  • Andreas Tzanis added an answer:
    Can P-wave velocity variation in shallow subsurface be related to electrical resistivity variation?
    For micro seismic zonation, lateral variation in the P-wave velocity is an important parameter because the unconsolidated zones having lower velocities are supposed to have higher amplitude response during the earthquakes. Sometimes, for shallow subsurface investigations, procuring equipments for seismic surveys prove to be cost prohibitive. However, electrical resistivity is a much cheaper means to investigate shallow subsurface stratigraphy. The problem is can we compare the velocity information with resistivity?
    Andreas Tzanis · National and Kapodistrian University of Athens
    Your question was: "The problem is can we compare the velocity information with resistivity? " To this problem, both Joerg and I gave proper answers. What you are asking above is an altogether different thing, which could not have been understood from the original question. So, if you need good answers, ask the right questins and give your correspondent sufficient information to understand your problem... Now, I say this because the calculation of the resistivity of your LVL layer may NOT be straightforward, depending on the thickness of the "thinner" interlacing layers. If these are many and very thin with respect to the applied field (e.g. of centimetric order and less), you could be facing a fat fractal structure for which I do not know if there is an analytical solution and if there is, it is going to be a distribution, not a scalar! If they are of decimetric or higher order, you are dealing with a vertically anisotropic structure (see Telford et al, Applied Geophysics, for some additional introductory info). In this case you need detailed well logs to calculate the effective resistivity from the component resistivities using the series resistivity rule. In both cases, you might constrain the thickness of the LVL on the basis of your seismic data and try to obtain an effective resistivity for the LVL on the basis of in situ electrical measurements. Mind you, however, that because the electrical properties of fat fractal or anisotropic structures are in reality distributions, your estimated effective resistivity may NOT reflect the true properties of the LVL and may be misleading... Well logs are your best bet, I think...
  • Prasanna Waichal added an answer:
    Is it right to record Strong Motion Accelerograph near huge dam site either in continuous mode or trigger mode if so throw some light - Willy. Y.A.
    Is it right to record Strong Motion Accelerograph near huge dam site either in continuous mode or trigger mode if so throw some light - Willy. Y.A.
    Prasanna Waichal · Fiji National University
    Dear Mr. Yesurathenam A.W.
    Namaskar!

    * It is very interesting to know that you are carrying out some experimentation related to earthquake studies in the vicinity of a dam site.

    This is really important to understand whether the dam causes earthquake (due to build-up of the water pressure) or there is some other cause for this.

    The Koyna Dam in western Maharashtra is a famous site in India where earthquakes are experienced. Some local residents say that they did not experience tremors prior to the construction of this project.

    Therefore, I believe that your work will be able to shed some light on this topic.

    Coming back to your question -

    The Triggered Mode is one which waits for a strong earthquake event and the data recording starts there after.

    In continuous mode the data is always recorded. This may be then limited only by the data recording mechanism or storage.

    I would suggest for a continuous mode with several of your sensors connected to a network (internet if possible) and the data recording takes place at a remote site (in your laboratory).

    I hope my views would help you in your project.

    Thanks,
  • Prasanna Waichal added an answer:
    How to forecast earthquake
    Brief explaination about fore casting earthquakes with related videos
    Prasanna Waichal · Fiji National University
    Many researchers are trying the same - Can we really predict earthquake/s?

    Studies in different fields are carried out all over the world but as of today there is no mechanism in place to accurately predict an earthquake event. If you search for literature, there was a news that some Italian researchers were put-to-task about (false/correct) prediction of an event.
  • Prasanna Waichal added an answer:
    EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING
    Is there any connection between earthquake and Electromagnetic waves?
    will the waves effect the Ionosphere?and how does it works??
    Prasanna Waichal · Fiji National University
    Hello Hengsheng Chang,
    Yes, there are indeed some observed phenomenon related to earth-quake, ionosphere and electromagnetic wave propagation.

    M. Parrot of France is working with the Dmeter (sorry if name in incorrectly spelled) satellite.
    Prof. Hayakawa of Japan and some group from Russia, India have detected early pre-cursors on VLF reception. Many papers are available in this regard.

    But these are really precursors and whether such data can be used as a Early Earth-quake Warning is still in doubts.
  • Wajahat Ali added an answer:
    Can any one give some idea about earthquake modelling or simulation ?
    Please kindly provide a tutorial or book name which deals with earthquake modelling or simulation........................... Thnk u in advance
    Wajahat Ali · The University of Western Ontario
    What type of modeling you are looking for ? Please see IRIS web for all information. If you would like to prepare a seismic model then you will need seismic events recorded by stations more then 1000Km from epicenter. Once you will get time series next step is to use SAC (Seismic analysis code) in this way you will get velocity for different depths (Focal depths) and can construct a velocity model. Other type of modeling includes response spectra which will give you PGA, PGV and PGD . This will involve some FMS and simple processing. Cheers
  • Zhigang Li added an answer:
    3D fault view
    I am looking for a script or free domain software to display and save 3D fault views. The input data: strike,dip, rake from EQ focal mechanisms or outcrops. Can anyone suggest a kind of rotating block diagram (and NOT a beach ball), which shows the apparent displacement?
    Zhigang Li · Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration

    3-D Modeling Using Gocad, please check the link: http://www.pdgm.com/products/gocad/.

  • Ozgur Kozaci added an answer:
    Anyone working on earthquake prediction by simulating the shifting of rivers, guided by the movement of tectonic plates?
    If a huge area of land is covered by rivers spreading through the area as a net, then the shifting of river paths are similar to each other. As the tectonic plates move, there is a possibility of giving an effect of those releasing energy to the ground surface. By monitoring the river shifting direction and speed, we can predict the future earthquake possibility by developing an empirical formula. What are your ideas?
    Ozgur Kozaci · Fugro Consultants Inc.
    The affects of tectonic deformation on fluvial systems have been studied for quite some time. These studies, however, inform us about the past earthquake movements' style, size, and potentially recurrence interval which in turn enables us to make mid to long-term predictions. Monitoring ongoing deformation of certain geomorphic patterns are done by using space-based geodesy (GPS) and interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR). These methods can cover vast amounts of landscape and can yield accuracy at millimeter-centimeter level. Any deformation you might capture looking at changes in river patterns can already be captured at a much greater accuracy using these long-established methods. Please also note that fluvial drainage systems will have annual/seasonal fluctuations, which can be on the order of meters based on regional climatic dynamics. The observed signal solely monitoring drainage patterns at any time would likely be much greater than any tectonic deformation signal.
  • Issam Sinjab added an answer:
    A 5.8m earthquake occurred in Mineral, Virginia on 8/23/11- any knowledge as to if this was a planned and controlled experiment or natural?
    As early as January 2010, I predicted that on August 23, 2011 the entire East Coast of the USA would shake from an earthquake from the Carolinas all the way to Canada. I am attaching a random screenshot from my Facebook offering warnings.
    When you say "planned and controlled experiment" do you mean an underground controlled nuclear explosion?
  • Rakhi Bhardwaj asked a question:
    if any work in India is done by anybody on Earthquake Early warning System (EEW)
    EEW gives us a pre information of few sec at a place far away from the epicenter.

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