Publications (17)45.81 Total impact
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Article: An Ensemble Seasonal Forecast of Human Cases of St. Louis Encephalitis in Florida Based on Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasts
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ABSTRACT: We present a method for the ensemble seasonal prediction of human St. Louis encephalitis (SLE) incidence and SLE virus transmission in Florida. We combine empirical relationships between modeled land surface wetness and the incidence of human clinical cases of SLE and modeled land surface wetness and the occurrence of SLE virus transmission throughout south Florida with a previously developed method for generating ensemble, seasonal hydrologic forecasts. Retrospective seasonal forecasts of human SLE incidence are made for Indian River County, Florida, and forecast skill is demonstrated for 2–4 months. A sample seasonal forecast of human SLE incidence is presented. This study establishes the skill of a potential component of an operational SLE forecast system in south Florida, one that provides information well in advance of transmission and may enable early interventions that reduce transmission. Future development of this method and operational application of these forecasts are discussed. The methodology also will be applied to West Nile virus monitoring and forecasting.Climatic Change 04/2012; 75(4):495-511. · 3.38 Impact Factor -
Article: Twentieth Century Climate in the New York Hudson Highlands and the Potential Impacts on Eco-Hydrological Processes
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ABSTRACT: During the 20th century the northeastern U.S.A. has undergone an annual temperature increase of 1 °C, the combined effect of winter warming and an increase in daily summer minimum temperatures. A significant cooling of spring through autumn in maximum air temperatures is also evident since 1950. Therefore, the primary objective of this study is to document these climate trends and variability over the last century. A secondary objective is to provide a preliminary analysis of how these changes may have impacted hydrologic and ecosystem processes. Specifically, with respect to ecosystem processes, we examine how the cooling of daytime maximum temperatures may have impacted plant respiration and biomass accumulation. The study site is the Black Rock Forest, an experimental forest located in Hudson Highlands of New York that has been maintained as a conservation area over the last 100 years. For the region centered about the forest, there exists a climate/weather record and an extensively maintained biomass record that extends continuously from the early part of the 20th century through present. With such an extensive physical and biological record to draw from, this forest provides a microcosm for studying how changes in 20th century local and regional climate may have impacted ecosystem processes such as species adaptation, biomass growth, and 20th century carbon sequestration. In a subsequent paper we will more extensively explore the relationship between this record of changing climate and eco-hydrological processes.Climatic Change 04/2012; 75(4):455-493. · 3.38 Impact Factor -
Article: Processing arctic eddy-flux data using a simple carbon-exchange model embedded in the ensemble Kalman filter.
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ABSTRACT: Continuous time-series estimates of net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE) are routinely made using eddy covariance techniques. Identifying and compensating for errors in the NEE time series can be automated using a signal processing filter like the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). The EnKF compares each measurement in the time series to a model prediction and updates the NEE estimate by weighting the measurement and model prediction relative to a specified measurement error estimate and an estimate of the model-prediction error that is continuously updated based on model predictions of earlier measurements in the time series. Because of the covariance among model variables, the EnKF can also update estimates of variables for which there is no direct measurement. The resulting estimates evolve through time, enabling the EnKF to be used to estimate dynamic variables like changes in leaf phenology. The evolving estimates can also serve as a means to test the embedded model and reconcile persistent deviations between observations and model predictions. We embedded a simple arctic NEE model into the EnKF and filtered data from an eddy covariance tower located in tussock tundra on the northern foothills of the Brooks Range in northern Alaska, USA. The model predicts NEE based only on leaf area, irradiance, and temperature and has been well corroborated for all the major vegetation types in the Low Arctic using chamber-based data. This is the first application of the model to eddy covariance data. We modified the EnKF by adding an adaptive noise estimator that provides a feedback between persistent model data deviations and the noise added to the ensemble of Monte Carlo simulations in the EnKF. We also ran the EnKF with both a specified leaf-area trajectory and with the EnKF sequentially recalibrating leaf-area estimates to compensate for persistent model-data deviations. When used together, adaptive noise estimation and sequential recalibration substantially improved filter performance, but it did not improve performance when used individually. The EnKF estimates of leaf area followed the expected springtime canopy phenology. However, there were also diel fluctuations in the leaf-area estimates; these are a clear indication of a model deficiency possibly related to vapor pressure effects on canopy conductance.Ecological Applications 07/2010; 20(5):1285-301. · 5.10 Impact Factor -
Article: Inter-annual variability of NDVI in response to long-term warming and fertilization in wet sedge and tussock tundra.
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ABSTRACT: This study explores the relationship between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and aboveground plant biomass for tussock tundra vegetation and compares it to a previously established NDVI-biomass relationship for wet sedge tundra vegetation. In addition, we explore inter-annual variation in NDVI in both these contrasting vegetation communities. All measurements were taken across long-term experimental treatments in wet sedge and tussock tundra communities at the Toolik Lake Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) site, in northern Alaska. Over 15 years (for wet sedge tundra) and 14 years (for tussock tundra), N and P were applied in factorial experiments (N, P and N+P), air temperature was increased using greenhouses with and without N+P fertilizer, and light intensity was reduced by 50% using shade cloth. during the peak growing seasons of 2001, 2002, and 2003, NDVI measurements were made in both the wet sedge and tussock tundra experimental treatment plots, creating a 3-year time series of inter-annual variation in NDVI. We found that: (1) across all tussock experimental tundra treatments, NDVI is correlated with aboveground plant biomass (r2 = 0.59); (2) NDVI-biomass relationships for tussock and wet sedge tundra communities are community specific, and; (3) NDVI values for tussock tundra communities are typically, but not always, greater than for wet sedge tundra communities across all experimental treatments. We suggest that differences between the response of wet sedge and tussock tundra communities in the same experimental treatments result from the contrasting degree of heterogeneity in species and functional types that characterize each of these Arctic tundra vegetation communities.Oecologia 06/2005; 143(4):588-97. · 3.41 Impact Factor -
Article: Drought-induced amplification and epidemic transmission of West Nile virus in southern Florida.
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ABSTRACT: We show that the spatial-temporal variability of human West Nile (WN) cases and the transmission of West Nile virus (WNV) to sentinel chickens are associated with the spatial-temporal variability of drought and wetting in southern Florida. Land surface wetness conditions at 52 sites in 31 counties in southern Florida for 2001-2003 were simulated and compared with the occurrence of human WN cases and the transmission of WNV to sentinel chickens within these counties. Both WNV transmission to sentinel chickens and the occurrence of human WN cases were associated with drought 2-6 mo prior and land surface wetting 0.5-1.5 mo prior. These dynamics are similar to the amplification and transmission patterns found in southern Florida for the closely related St. Louis encephalitis virus. Drought brings avian hosts and vector mosquitoes into close contact and facilitates the epizootic cycling and amplification of the arboviruses within these populations. Southern Florida has not recorded a severe, widespread drought since the introduction of WNV into the state in 2001. Our results indicate that widespread drought in the spring followed by wetting during summer greatly increase the probability of a WNV epidemic in southern Florida.Journal of Medical Entomology 04/2005; 42(2):134-41. · 1.76 Impact Factor -
Article: Hydrological consequences of Eucalyptus afforestation in the Argentine Pampas
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ABSTRACT: 1] The impacts of a 40 ha stand of Eucalyptus camaldulensis in the Pampas grasslands of Argentina were explored for 2 years using a novel combination of sap flow, groundwater data, soil moisture measurements, and modeling. Sap flow measurements showed transpiration rates of 2–3.7 mm d À1 , lowering groundwater levels by more than 0.5 m with respect to the surrounding grassland. This hydraulic gradient induced flow from the grassland areas into the plantation and resulted in a rising of the plantation water table at night. Groundwater use estimated from diurnal water table fluctuations correlated well with sap flow (p < 0.001, r 2 = 0.78). Differences between daily sap flow and the estimates of groundwater use were proportional to changes in surface soil moisture content (p < 0.001, r 2 = 0.75). E. camaldulensis therefore used both groundwater and vadose zone moisture sources, depending on soil water availability. Model results suggest that groundwater sources represented $67% of total annual water use.Water Resour. Res. 01/2005; 41. -
Article: Are big basins just the sum of small catchments?
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ABSTRACT: Many challenges remain in extending our understanding of how hydrologic processes within small catchments scale to larger river basins. In this study we examine how low-flow runoff varies as a function of basin scale at 11 catchments, many of which are nested, in the 176 km2 Neversink River watershed in the Catskill Mountains of New York. Topography, vegetation, soil and bedrock structure are similar across this river basin, and previous research has demonstrated the importance of deep groundwater springs for maintaining low-flow stream discharge at small scales in the basin. Therefore, we hypothesized that deep groundwater would contribute an increasing amount to low-flow discharge as basin scale increased, resulting in increased runoff. Instead, we find that, above a critical basin size of 8 to 21 km2, low-flow runoff is similar within the Neversink watershed. These findings are broadly consistent with those of a previous study that examined stream chemistry as a function of basin scale for this watershed. However, we find physical evidence of self-similarity among basins greater than 8 km2, whereas the previous study found gradual changes in stream chemistry among basins greater than 3 km2.We believe that a better understanding of self-similarity and the subsurface flow processes that affect stream runoff will be attained through simultaneous consideration of both chemical and physical evidence. We also suggest that similar analyses of stream runoff in other basins that represent a range of spatial scales, geomorphologies and climate conditions will further elucidate the issue of scaling of hydrologic processes. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.Hydrological Processes 10/2004; 18(16):3195 - 3206. · 2.49 Impact Factor -
Article: The spatial-temporal distribution of drought, wetting, and human cases of St. Louis encephalitis in southcentral Florida.
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ABSTRACT: Using a dynamic hydrology model, we simulated land surface wetness conditions at 42 sites in 28 counties in southcentral Florida from 1990 to 1998 and compared these simulations with the incidence of human cases of St. Louis encephalitis (SLE) within these counties. Within counties, drought four months prior and wetting one-half month prior were significantly associated with human cases of SLE. Simulated land surface wetness conditions resolved transmission loci in both space and time, and May drought was significantly associated with the subsequent occurrence of human SLE cases. These findings are consistent with previous results associating simulated land surface wetness conditions with the transmission of SLE virus as measured in sentinel chickens, and support our working hypothesis that springtime drought facilitates SLE virus amplification in mosquito and wild bird populations.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene 10/2004; 71(3):251-61. · 2.59 Impact Factor -
Article: Seasonal forecast of St. Louis encephalitis virus transmission, Florida.
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ABSTRACT: Disease transmission forecasts can help minimize human and domestic animal health risks by indicating where disease control and prevention efforts should be focused. For disease systems in which weather-related variables affect pathogen proliferation, dispersal, or transmission, the potential for disease forecasting exists. We present a seasonal forecast of St. Louis encephalitis virus transmission in Indian River County, Florida. We derive an empiric relationship between modeled land surface wetness and levels of SLEV transmission in humans. We then use these data to forecast SLEV transmission with a seasonal lead. Forecast skill is demonstrated, and a real-time seasonal forecast of epidemic SLEV transmission is presented. This study demonstrates how weather and climate forecast skill-verification analyses may be applied to test the predictability of an empiric disease forecast model.Emerging infectious diseases 06/2004; 10(5):802-9. · 6.17 Impact Factor -
Article: St. Louis encephalitis virus in wild birds during the 1990 south Florida epidemic: the importance of drought, wetting conditions, and the emergence of Culex nigripalpus (Diptera: Culicidae) to arboviral amplification and transmission.
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ABSTRACT: We analyzed the prevalence of hemagglutination inhibition (HI) antibodies to St. Louis encephalitis (SLE) virus in wild birds during the 1990 SLE epidemic in Indian River County. The initial presence of SLE HI antibody was associated significantly with modeled drought 15 wk prior, wetting conditions 1 wk prior, and the emergence of the Florida SLE virus vector, Culex nigripalpus, 5 wk prior. Our findings indicated that three factors conspired to create the 1990 epidemic: (1) a large population of susceptible wild birds; (2) severe springtime drought, which facilitated amplification of the SLE virus among the Cx. nigripalpus and a portion of the wild bird population; and (3) continued rainfall and wetting of the land surface in the summer and early fall, which sustained a large, host-seeking Cx. nigripalpus population. The continued biting and reproductive activity of Cx. nigripalpus maintained epizootic transmission throughout the summer and early fall in Indian River County. The high level of SLE virus amplification resulted in spillover transmission to humans. We hypothesize that without the continued reproductive activity of the vector mosquito, brought about by excessive summer and fall wetness, the unprecedented SLE virus amplification and consequent transmission to humans would not have been realized in 1990.Journal of Medical Entomology 08/2003; 40(4):547-54. · 1.76 Impact Factor -
Article: Response of NDVI, biomass, and ecosystem gas exchange to long-term warming and fertilization in wet sedge tundra.
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ABSTRACT: This study explores the relationship between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), aboveground plant biomass, and ecosystem C fluxes including gross ecosystem production (GEP), ecosystem respiration (ER) and net ecosystem production. We measured NDVI across long-term experimental treatments in wet sedge tundra at the Toolik Lake LTER site, in northern Alaska. Over 13 years, N and P were applied in factorial experiments (N, P and N + P), air temperature was increased using greenhouses with and without N + P fertilizer, and light intensity (photosynthetically active photon flux density) was reduced by 50% using shade cloth. Within each treatment plot, NDVI, aboveground biomass and whole-system CO(2) flux measurements were made at the same sampling points during the peak-growing season of 2001. We found that across all treatments, NDVI is correlated with aboveground biomass ( r(2)=0.84), GEP ( r(2)=0.75) and ER ( r(2)=0.71), providing a basis for linking remotely sensed NDVI to aboveground biomass and ecosystem carbon flux.Oecologia 06/2003; 135(3):414-21. · 3.41 Impact Factor -
Article: Drought-induced amplification of Saint Louis encephalitis virus, Florida.
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ABSTRACT: We used a dynamic hydrology model to simulate water table depth (WTD) and quantify the relationship between Saint Louis encephalitis virus (SLEV) transmission and hydrologic conditions in Indian River County, Florida, from 1986 through 1991, a period with an SLEV epidemic. Virus transmission followed periods of modeled drought (specifically low WTDs 12 to 17 weeks before virus transmission, followed by a rising of the water table 1 to 2 weeks before virus transmission). Further evidence from collections of Culex nigripalpus (the major mosquito vector of SLEV in Florida) suggests that during extended spring droughts vector mosquitoes and nestling, juvenile, and adult wild birds congregate in selected refuges, facilitating epizootic amplification of SLEV. When the drought ends and habitat availability increases, the SLEV-infected Cx. nigripalpus and wild birds disperse, initiating an SLEV transmission cycle. These findings demonstrate a mechanism by which drought facilitates the amplification of SLEV and its subsequent transmission to humans.Emerging infectious diseases 07/2002; 8(6):575-80. · 6.17 Impact Factor -
Article: Using a dynamic hydrology model to predict mosquito abundances in flood and swamp water.
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ABSTRACT: We modeled surface wetness at high resolution, using a dynamic hydrology model, to predict flood and swamp water mosquito abundances. Historical meteorologic data, as well as topographic, soil, and vegetation data, were used to model surface wetness and identify potential fresh and swamp water breeding habitats in two northern New Jersey watersheds. Surface wetness was positively associated with the subsequent abundance of the dominant floodwater mosquito species, Aedes vexans, and the swamp water species, Anopheles walkeri. The subsequent abundance of Culex pipiens, a species that breeds in polluted, eutrophic waters, was negatively correlated with local modeled surface wetness. These associations permit real-time monitoring and forecasting of these floodwater and nonfloodwater species at high spatial and temporal resolution. These predictions will enable public health agencies to institute control measures before the mosquitoes emerge as adults, when their role as transmitters of disease comes into play.Emerging infectious diseases 02/2002; 8(1):6-13. · 6.17 Impact Factor -
Article: Seasonal forecast of St. Louis Encaphilitis Virus transmission, Florida
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ABSTRACT: Disease transmission forecasts can help minimize human and domestic animal health risks by indicating where disease control and prevention efforts should be focused. For disease systems in which weather-related variables affect pathogen proliferation, dispersal, or transmission, the potential for disease forecasting exists. We present a seasonal forecast of St. Louis encephalitis virus transmission in Indian River County, Florida. We derive an empiric relationship between modeled land surface wetness and levels of SLEV transmission in humans. We then use these data to forecast SLEV transmission with a seasonal lead. Forecast skill is demonstrated, and a real-time seasonal forecast of epidemic SLEV transmission is presented. This study demonstrates how weather and climate forecast skill-verification analyses may be applied to test the predictability of an empiric disease forecast model. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Headquarters under the Earth System Science Fellowship, grant NGT5-50323. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Postdoctoral Program in Climate and Global Change, administered by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. NAtional Aeronautics and Space Administration Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project at Goddard Space Flight Center. -
Article: Representation of a subsurface storm flow and a more responsive water table in a TOPMODEL-based hydrology model
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ABSTRACT: This study presents two new modeling strategies. First, a methodology for representing the physical process of subsurface storm flow within a TOPMODEL framework is developed. In using this approach, discharge at quick flow timescales is simulated, and a fuller depiction of hydrologic activity is brought about. Discharge of water from the vadose zone is permitted in a physically realistic manner without a priori assumption of the level within the soil column at which subsurface storm flow saturation can take place. Determination of the subsurface storm flow contribution to discharge is made using the equation for groundwater flow. No new parameters are needed. Instead, regions in excess of field capacity that develop during storm events, producing vertical recharge, are also allowed to contribute to soil zone discharge. These subsurface storm flow contributions to river runoff, as for groundwater flow contributions, are a function of catchment topography and hydraulic conductivity at the depth at which such regions in excess of field capacity occur. The second approach improves groundwater flow response through a reduction of porosity and field capacity with depth in the soil column. Large storm events are better captured and a more dynamic water table develops with application of this modified soil column profile (MSCP). The MSCP predominantly reflects soil depth differences in upland and lowland regions of a watershed. Combined, these two approaches, subsurface storm flow and the MSCP, provide a more accurate representation of the timescales at which discharge responds and a more complete depiction of hydrologic activity. Storm events large and small are better simulated, and some of the biases previously evident in TOPMODEL simulations are reduced. NASA Earth System Science Fellowship. NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project at Goddard Space Flight Center. NASA's Global Modeling and Analysis Program under RTOP 622-24-47. NSF grants from the division of Environmental Biology (Arctic LTER Project) and the Office of Polar Programs (Arctic Natural Sciences, Arctic Systems Science). -
Article: An approach to understanding hydrologic connectivity on the hillslope and the implications for nutrient transport
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ABSTRACT: Hydrologic processes control much of the export of organic matter and nutrients from the land surface. It is the variability of these hydrologic processes that produces variable patterns of nutrient transport in both space and time. In this paper, we explore how hydrologic ‘‘connectivity’’ potentially affects nutrient transport. Hydrologic connectivity is defined as the condition by which disparate regions on the hillslope are linked via subsurface water flow. We present simulations that suggest that for much of the year, water draining through a catchment is spatially isolated. Only rarely, during storm and snowmelt events when antecedent soil moisture is high, do our simulations suggest that mid-slope saturation (or near saturation) occurs and that a catchment connects from ridge to valley. Observations during snowmelt at a small headwater catchment in Idaho are consistent with these model simulations. During early season discharge episodes, in which the mid-slope soil column is not saturated, the electrical conductivity in the stream remains low, reflecting a restricted, local (lower slope) source of stream water and the continued isolation of upper and mid-slope soil water and nutrients from the stream system. Increased streamflow and higher stream water electrical conductivity, presumably reflecting the release of water from the upper reaches of the catchment, are simultaneously observed when the mid-slope becomes sufficiently wet. This study provides preliminary evidence that the seasonal timing of hydrologic connectivity may affect a range of ecological processes, including downslope nutrient transport, C/N cycling, and biological productivity along the toposequence. A better elucidation of hydrologic connectivity will be necessary for understanding local processes as well as material export from land to water at regional and global scales. NSF grants DEB 9810222, OPP 9911681, OPP 9911278 and OPP 0002369. USDA NRI award 2001-35102-11031. NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project at Goddard Space Flight Center. NASA's Global Modeling and Analysis Program under RTOP 622-24-47. NSF Biocomplexity award ATM 0221835. -
Article: A hydrologically driven model of swamp water mosquito population dynamics
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ABSTRACT: We develop a swamp water mosquito population model that is forced solely by environmental variability. Measured temperature and land surface wetness conditions are used to simulate Anopheles walkeri population dynamics in a northern New Jersey habitat. Land surface wetness conditions, which represent oviposition habitat availability, are derived from simulations using a dynamic hydrology model. Using only these two density-independent effects, population model simulations of biting Anoph. walkeri correlate significantly with light trap collections. These results suggest that prediction of mosquito populations and the diseases they transmit could be better constrained by inclusion of environmental variability.Ecological Modelling.
Top co-authors
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Institutions
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2004–2010
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Georgia Institute of Technology
- School of Civil & Environmental Engineering
Atlanta, GA, USA
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2004–2005
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Harvard University
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences
Cambridge, MA, USA
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2002
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Columbia University
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
New York City, NY, USA
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