Sandra Melnick

National Cancer Institute (USA), Maryland, United States

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Publications (25)154.57 Total impact

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    ABSTRACT: Little is known in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive women about how the combination of plasma HIV RNA level and CD4+ T-cell count is associated with the natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection or about HPV reactivation--whether it occurs and with what frequency in HIV-positive women. HIV-positive (n = 1848) and -negative (n = 514) women were assessed at semiannual visits (total person-years = 5661) for cervicovaginal HPV with polymerase chain reaction assays and for squamous intraepithelial lesions (SILs) by Pap smear. We studied the prevalent detection of HPV and SILs with generalized estimating equations and the incident detection and persistence of HPV and SILs with multivariable Cox models. All statistical tests were two-sided. We observed a strong interaction between the associations of CD4+ and plasma HIV RNA strata with both prevalent (P(interaction) = .002) and incident (P(interaction) = .001) detection of HPV. Indeed, the hazard ratio for incident HPV detection peaked between 4.0 and 5.0, with either a CD4+ count of less than 200 cells per mm3 or an HIV RNA level of more than 100,000 copies per mL. Although incident HPV detection in all women was associated with the number of recent sex partners (P(trend)<.001), 22% of sexually inactive HIV-positive women with a CD4+ count of less than 200 cells/mm3 also had at least one incidentally detected HPV type. The association between CD4+/HIV RNA strata and HPV persistence was statistically significantly smaller (P<.001) than for incident HPV detection. SIL prevalence, incident detection, and persistence had similar associations with CD4+/HIV RNA strata as HPV (above). In HIV-positive women, plasma HIV RNA level and CD4+ count in combination appear to have a strong and statistically interactive association with incident detection of HPV, some of which may reflect HPV reactivation (e.g., in sexually inactive women). The more moderate association between HIV coinfection and HPV persistence could partly explain why cervical cancer rates have not reached more epidemic proportions in HIV-positive women.
    CancerSpectrum Knowledge Environment 04/2005; 97(8):577-86. · 14.07 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: Recent cervical cancer screening guidelines state that the interval between screenings can be safely extended to 3 years in healthy women 30 years or older who have normal cytology results and have negative test results for oncogenic human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA. To determine the incidence of squamous intraepithelial lesions (SILs) in HIV-seropositive women with normal cytology results, by baseline HPV DNA results. Participants were HIV-seropositive (n = 855; mean age, 36 years) and HIV-seronegative (n = 343; mean age, 34 years) US women with normal baseline cervical cytology who were enrolled in the Women's Interagency HIV Study (WIHS), a large, multi-institutional prospective cohort study. Since their recruitment during 1994-1995, WIHS participants have been followed up semi-annually with repeated Pap smears for a median of 7 years. The cumulative incidence of any SIL and high-grade SIL or cancer (HSIL+) was estimated according to baseline HPV DNA results, stratified by HIV serostatus and CD4 T-cell count. Development of any SIL in women with negative HPV results (both oncogenic and nononcogenic) at 2 years was as follows: in HIV-seropositive women with CD4 counts less than 200/microL, 9% (95% CI, 1%-18%); with CD4 counts between 200/muL and 500/microL, 9% (95% CI, 4%-13%); and with CD4 counts greater than 500/microL, 4% (95% CI, 1%-7%). The CIs for these estimates overlapped with those for HIV-seronegative women with normal baseline cytology who were HPV-negative (3%; 95% CI, 1%-5%), indicating that at 2 years, there were no large absolute differences in the cumulative incidence of any SIL between groups. Furthermore, no HPV-negative participants in any group developed HSIL+ lesions within 3 years. Multivariate Cox models showed that on a relative scale, the incidence of any SIL among HIV-seropositive women with CD4 counts greater than 500/microL (hazard ratio [HR], 1.2; 95% CI, 0.5-3.0), but not those with CD4 counts less than or equal to 500/microL (HR, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.2-7.1), was similar to that in HIV-seronegative women. The similar low cumulative incidence of any SIL among HIV-seronegative and HIV-seropositive women with CD4 counts greater than 500/microL and who had normal cervical cytology and HPV-negative test results suggests that similar cervical cancer screening practices may be applicable to both groups, although this strategy warrants evaluation in an appropriate clinical trial.
    JAMA The Journal of the American Medical Association 04/2005; 293(12):1471-6. · 29.98 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: The HIV epidemic has been associated with an increased incidence of specific cancers. However, less is known about cancers occurring in HIV-infected women than men. To determine the risk of cancer among HIV-infected and at-risk HIV-uninfected women, cancer incidence data from the Women's Interagency HIV Study (WIHS) were compared with data from the population-based United States Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry. Age- and race-adjusted standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were computed and exact statistical tests were used to measure significance. Among the 1950 women participants (1554 HIV infected, 391 HIV uninfected, and 5 HIV seroconverters), 48 cancers were diagnosed during study follow-up. Among HIV-infected women, significantly (P < 0.05) increased incidence rates were observed for all cancer types (SIR = 1.9), Kaposi sarcoma (SIR = 213.5), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) (SIR = 19.0), and lung cancer (SIR = 6.3) when compared with SEER rates. Lung cancer incidence was also elevated (P = 0.07) among the HIV-uninfected women (SIR = 6.9), when compared with SEER rates, and was similar to the SIR for HIV-infected women. While the incidence rate of NHL among HIV-infected women was significantly lower during the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) compared with the pre-HAART era (relative risk = 0.15, P = 0.005), the incidence of NHL among HIV-infected WIHS participants remained significantly higher than in the US population (SIR = 6.4, 95% CI = 1.3-15.5). In the HAART era, the higher rates of cancer among HIV-infected women, coupled with increased life expectancy, should lead to more intensive cancer screening and prevention efforts in this population.
    JAIDS Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes 08/2004; 36(4):978-85. · 4.65 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: To assess the utility of testing for high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA as a triage strategy for detecting cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 2/3 in women with human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV-1) infection and cytology read as atypical cells of uncertain significance (ASCUS). Conventional cervical cytology and cervicovaginal lavage were obtained at 6-month intervals between October 1, 1994, and September 30, 2002, from women enrolled in the Women's Interagency HIV Study, a multicenter cohort studying the natural history of HIV in women. HPV typing was performed by PCR. HPV types 16, 18, 31, 33, 35, 39, 45, 51, 52, 56, 58, 59, and 68 were classified as carrying high oncogenic risk. Women with ASCUS smears were referred for colposcopy. Analyses of the sensitivity of HPV testing were cross-sectional, using colposcopy results within 90 days of first ASCUS result. Of the 270 women evaluated, 7 (3%) had CIN 2, and 3 (1%) had CIN3 or adenocarcinoma in situ. High-risk HPV DNA was found in 81 (30%) of the 270 participants. The sensitivity of high-risk HPV DNA detection for CIN 2/3 was 50% (95% CI 0.19, 0.81), the specificity was 71% (95% CI 0.65, 0.76), the positive predictive value was 6% (95% CI 0.01, 0.11), and the negative predictive value was 97% (95% CI 0.95, 1.00). HPV of any risk type was found in 176 (65%) of the 270 women, including 9 of 10 women with CIN 2/3, for a sensitivity of 90% (95% CI 0.56, 1.00), a specificity of 36% (95% CI 0.30, 0.42), a positive predictive value of 5% (95% CI 0.02, 0.08), and a negative predictive value of 99% (95% CI 0.94, 1.00). For women with HIV and Papanicolaou smears read as ASCUS, DNA testing for high risk HPV may not be sensitive enough for clinical use.
    Journal of Women s Health 04/2004; 13(2):147-53. · 1.42 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: To measure the incidence of invasive cervical cancer (ICC) in US women infected with HIV. Multicenter prospective cohort study, conducted between October 1994, and September 2001. HIV research centers operating as six urban consortia in the Women's Interagency HIV Study. A total of 2131 women (462 HIV seronegative, 1661 HIV seropositive, and eight seroconverters). Women with a history of hysterectomy or of cervical cancer at baseline evaluation were excluded. Cervical cytology obtained at 6-month intervals, with a colposcopy referral threshold of atypia, followed by individualized treatment. ICC diagnoses obtained from study databases and regional cancer registries and confirmed by a gynecologic pathologist. No incident ICC were observed in HIV seronegative women during 2375 woman-years of observation. During 8260 woman-years of observation, eight putative incident cases of cervical cancer were identified in HIV seropositive women, but only one was confirmed, yielding an incidence rate of 1.2/10 000 woman-years (95% confidence interval, 0.3-6.7/10 000 woman-years). The difference in incidence between HIV seropositive and seronegative women was not significant (P = 1.0). ICC is uncommon in HIV-infected US women participating in a regular prevention program.
    AIDS 02/2004; 18(1):109-13. · 6.41 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: Human papillomavirus (HPV) type 16 is etiologically associated with approximately half of all cervical cancers. It is important, therefore, to determine the characteristics that distinguish HPV16 from other HPV types. A preliminary result based on cross-sectional baseline data in the Women's Interagency Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Study (WIHS) suggested that the prevalence of HPV16 might have a weaker association with immune status in HIV-seropositive women than that of other HPV types. To address this issue, we examined HPV test results from repeated study visits in the WIHS and from an independent study, the HIV Epidemiology Research Study (HERS). HIV-seropositive women in the WIHS (n = 2058) and in the HERS (n = 871) were assessed semiannually. HPV DNA was detected in cervicovaginal lavage specimens by using polymerase chain reaction assays. Prevalence ratios were used to compare the prevalence of each HPV type in women with the lowest CD4+ T-cell counts (<200 T cells/mm3) with that of women with the highest CD4+ T-cell counts (> or =500 T cells/mm3). A summary prevalence ratio for each HPV type (i.e., across visits and studies) was estimated using generalized estimating equations. The association of CD4+ T-cell stratum with type-specific HPV incidence was measured using multivariable Cox regression models. All statistical tests were two-sided. The prevalence ratio for HPV16 was low compared with that of other HPV types at every study visit in both cohorts. The generalized estimating equation summary prevalence ratio for HPV16 (1.25, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.97 to 1.62) was the smallest measured, and it was statistically significantly lower than that of all other HPV types combined (P =.01). The association of CD4+ T-cell stratum with HPV16 incidence was also among the smallest measured (hazard ratio = 1.69, 95% CI = 1.01 to 2.81). The prevalent and incident detection of HPV16 is more weakly associated with immune status in HIV-seropositive women than that of other HPV types, suggesting that HPV16 may be better at avoiding the effects of immune surveillance, which could contribute to HPV16's strong association with cervical cancer.
    CancerSpectrum Knowledge Environment 07/2003; 95(14):1062-71. · 14.07 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: Although HIV-positive women may be less likely than women in general to receive mammography due to socioeconomic disadvantage, HIV diagnosis may increase opportunities for medical interactions which encourage mammography. HIV-positive (2,059) and HIV-negative (569) Women's Interagency HIV Study (WIHS) participants reported ever/never history of mammography at baseline (in 1994, 1995) and, at each 6-month follow-up visit, if they had been screened since their last visit. National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) data for 1994 were used to compare WIHS participants to U.S. women. Factors independently related to mammography were determined using logistic regression for baseline data and proportional hazards for follow-up data. Results were adjusted for age. Among women > or =40, fewer WIHS women, regardless of HIV status, reported screening than U.S. women (67% HIV-positive, 62% HIV-negative, 79% NHIS; P < 0.0001). First-time screening while on study was associated with being HIV-positive [rate ratio (95% confidence interval) = 1.6 (1.1, 2.3)]. Factors independently associated with screening were related to health care access and usage. WIHS women, a disadvantaged population, reported less mammography than the general population. HIV-positive women reported more screening than HIV-negative women, possibly because of greater opportunity to interact with the health care system.
    Preventive Medicine 03/2002; 34(3):386-92. · 3.50 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: Cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN), a common condition among HIV-infected women, has been linked to HIV load and immune status. Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) improves immunologic and virologic status. This study was undertaken to determine the relationship between HAART use and CIN. Cohort study. The Women's Interagency HIV Study (WIHS) in five cities in the USA (Bronx/Manhattan, New York; Brooklyn, New York; Chicago, Illinois; Los Angeles, California; San Francisco Bay area, California; Washington, District of Columbia). HIV-infected women were followed every 6 months with Papanicolaou smears and cervicovaginal lavage for human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing. To characterize exposures that changed over time and to capture the dynamic nature of cytologic changes, Papanicolaou smear findings from each participant's consecutive visits were defined as a pair. We determined the proportion of all pairs that exhibited either regression or progression, according to HAART exposure, HPV results and Papanicolaou smear status. As participants could contribute multiple pairs, inferences were based on robust methods to adjust for correlated observations. Women with persistent HPV infection were more likely to have progression of their lesions. After adjustment for CD4 cell count and Papanicolaou smear status, women on HAART were 40% (95% confidence interval, 4-81%) more likely to demonstrate regression and less likely (odds ratio, 0.68; 95% confidence interval, 0.52-0.88) to demonstrate progression HAART altered the course of HPV disease in HIV-infected women, reducing progression and increasing regression. As HPV disease is a common sex-specific manifestation of HIV disease this effect of HAART would be a major additional benefit from this modality of therapy.
    AIDS 12/2001; 15(16):2157-64. · 6.41 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: Abstract Objective. To determine associations among cervical cytology, colposcopy, and biopsy in HIV-seropositive women.Materials and Methods. HIV-seropositive women and uninfected comparison women in a multicenter prospective cohort study underwent colposcopy for protocol indications. Women were eligible if they had a cervix, satisfactory cytology, and colposcopy between October 1994 and September 1999. Cytology, colposcopic impression, and biopsy were compared using equivalent categorizations. Kappa statistics with bootstrap sampling assessed strength of associations.Results. Colposcopy was performed in 978/1370 HIV-seropositive women and in 154/224 seronegative women. Biopsies were performed on 603 (44%) seropositive women at least once during 1015 colposcopy visits and on 82 (37%) seronegative women at 116 visits. The positive predictive value of cytology was 72% for seropositive women and 60% for seronegative women. The positive predictive value of colposcopy was 71% for seropositive women and 55% for seronegative women.Conclusion. The correlation between either cervical cytology or colposcopic impression and colposcopic biopsy was poor.
    Journal of Lower Genital Tract Disease 09/2001; 5(4):212 - 218. · 1.21 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: To determine incidence, progression, and regression rates for abnormal cervical cytology and their correlates among women with HIV. In a multicenter prospective cohort study conducted October 1, 1994, through September 30, 1999 at university, public, and private medical centers and clinics, 1639 HIV-seropositive and 452 seronegative women were evaluated every 6 months for up to 5 years using history, cervical cytology, T-cell subsets, and quantitative plasma HIV RNA. Human papillomavirus (HPV) typing at baseline was determined by polymerase chain reaction. Cytology was read using the Bethesda system, with any smear showing at least atypia considered abnormal. Poisson regression identified factors associated with incident cytologic abnormalities whereas logistic regression identified those associated with progression and regression after an abnormality. At least one abnormal smear was found during all of follow-up among 73.0% of HIV-seropositive patients and 42.3% of seronegatives (p <.001). Only 5.9% of seropositives ever developed high-grade lesions, and the proportion with high-grade findings did not rise over time. Incidence of atypical squamous cells of uncertain significance (ASCUS) or more severe lesions among HIV-seropositive patients and seronegative patients was 26.4 and 11.0/100 woman-years (rate ratio [RR], 2.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.9-3.0), whereas that of at least low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (SIL) was 8.9 and 2.2/100 (RR, 4.0; CI, 2.6-6.1). HIV status, detection of the presence of human papillomavirus (HPV), CD4 lymphocyte count, and HIV RNA level predicted incidence of abnormal cytology (p <.05); HPV detection and HIV RNA level predicted progression (p <.01); and HPV detection, CD4 lymphocyte count, and HIV RNA level predicted regression (p <.001). Rates of incidence, progression, and regression of abnormal cytology did not differ between HIV seronegative women and seropositive women with CD4 lymphocyte counts >200/mm(3) and HIV RNA levels <4000/ml of similar HPV status. Although HIV infected women were at high risk for abnormal cytology, high-grade changes were uncommon. HIV status, HPV detection, CD4 lymphocyte count, and HIV RNA level predicted the incidence of cervical cytologic abnormalities. Progression was significantly increased only among the most immunosuppressed women, while regression was significantly reduced in all HIV seropositive women except those with the best controlled HIV disease.
    JAIDS Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes 08/2001; 27(5):432-42. · 4.65 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: Little is known about the epidemiology of human herpesvirus 8 (HHV-8) infections among women. A cross-sectional study was conducted of HHV-8 infection among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected and high-risk HIV-uninfected women. Serological tests with noninduced (latent) and induced (lytic) HHV-8 antigens were used to detect infection among 2483 participants of a multisite cohort. Reactivity to latent antigen was present in 4.1% and to induced antigens in 12.0% of women. Seven of 8 women who reported Kaposi's sarcoma had HHV-8 antibodies. Among HIV-positive women, HHV-8 infection was associated with use of crack, cocaine, or heroin (76% vs. 65%; P<.001), past syphilis (29% vs. 20%; P<.001), an injection drug-using male sex partner (61% vs. 53%; P=.014), black race (P=.010), and enrollment site (P=.015). In multivariate analysis, HIV infection, older age, past syphilis, black race, and enrollment site were independently associated with HHV-8 infection. In this cohort of North American women, HHV-8 infection was associated with HIV infection, drug use, and risky sexual behavior.
    The Journal of Infectious Diseases 05/2001; 183(7):1130-4. · 5.85 Impact Factor
  • Journal of Lower Genital Tract Disease - J LOW GENIT TRACT DIS. 01/2001; 5(4):212-218.
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    ABSTRACT: The relationship between the pattern of virus load response to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) and CD4 lymphocyte response was assessed in a cohort of 249 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) type 1-infected women at 3 times: 1 before and 2 after initiation of therapy, with follow-up of 6-12 months. Patients with a durable response to HAART (i.e., >1 log decrease in HIV-1 RNA sustained for the study periods) had a continuous and significant increase in CD4 cell counts over time, whereas those with no response (<0.5 log decrease in HIV-1 RNA) had a slight decline. Patients with a mixed response (initial decrease >1 log, followed by a subsequent decrease <0.5 log) had an increase in CD4 cell count, followed by a plateau. The trend in CD4 cell count differed significantly by response to HAART, with those patients who experienced a durable response having significantly higher CD4 cell counts than others.
    The Journal of Infectious Diseases 11/2000; 182(5):1527-30. · 5.85 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: Context: HIV-1 RNA and lymphocyte subset levels are the principal indications for antiretroviral treatment. Past reports have differed with regard to the effect of gender and race on these measures and in measures of disease progression. Objective: To assess racial and gender differences in HIV-1 RNA levels and CD4+ lymphocyte decline. Design: A longitudinal study based in the two largest HIV natural history cohort studies conducted in 7 metropolitan areas of the United States. Results: In all, 1256 adult women and 1603 adult men for whom multiple data points were available prior to initiation of antiretroviral therapy were included. Women were more likely to be nonwhite, to have a history of injection drug use, and to have HIV-associated symptoms. After adjustment for differences in measurement method, baseline CD4+ cell count, age, and clinical symptoms, HIV-1 RNA levels were 32% to 50% lower in women than in men at CD4+ counts >200 cells/mm3 (p < .001) but not at CD4+ cell counts <200 cells/mm3. HIV-1 RNA levels were also 41% lower in nonwhites than in whites (p < .001) and 21% lower in persons reporting a prior history of injection drug use (p < .001). Women had more rapid declines in CD4+ cell counts over time than men (difference in slope of 46 cells/year) and nonwhite individuals had slower decline in CD4 cell counts than whites (difference of 39 cells/year). Conclusions: Both race and gender influence the values of HIV-1 RNA and the rate of HIV-1 disease progression as indicated by decline in CD4 cell counts over time. These effects could provide clues regarding the factors that influence HIV-disease progression and may indicate that guidelines for therapy should be adjusted for demographic characteristics. (C) 2000 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Inc.
    JAIDS Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes 06/2000; 24(3). · 4.65 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence and effect of domestic violence and childhood sexual abuse in women with HIV or at risk for HIV infection. Participants with HIV or at risk for HIV infection enrolled in the Women's Interagency HIV Study. Childhood sexual abuse; all physical, sexual, and coercive violence by a partner; HIV serostatus; demographic data; and substance use and sexual habits were assessed. The lifetime prevalence of domestic violence was 66% and 67%, respectively, in 1288 women with HIV and 357 uninfected women. One quarter of the women reported recent abuse, and 31% of the HIV-seropositive women and 27% of the HIV-seronegative women reported childhood sexual abuse. Childhood sexual abuse was strongly associated with a lifetime history of domestic violence and high-risk behaviors, including using drugs, having more than 10 male sexual partners and having male partners at risk for HIV infection, and exchanging sex for drugs, money, or shelter. Our data support the hypothesis of a continuum of risk, with early childhood abuse leading to later domestic violence, which may increase the risk of behaviors leading to HIV infection.
    American Journal of Public Health 05/2000; 90(4):560-5. · 3.93 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: Background We used data from Europe, North America, and Australia to assess the effect of exposure category on the AIDS incubation period and HIV-1 survival and whether the effect of age at seroconversion varies with exposure category and with time since seroconversion. Methods 38 studies of HIV-1-infected individuals whose dates of seroconversion could be reliably estimated were included in the analysis. Individual data on 13 030 HIV-1-infected individuals from 15 countries were collated, checked, and analysed centrally. We calculated estimates of mortality and AIDS incidence rates and estimated the proportions of individuals surviving and developing AIDS at each year after seroconversion from the numbers of observed deaths or cases of AIDS and the corresponding person-years at risk. Analyses were adjusted for age at seroconversion, time since seroconversion, and other factors as appropriate. Findings Mortality and AIDS incidence increased strongly with time since seroconversion and age at seroconversion. Median survival varied from 12.5 years (95% CI 12.1-12.9) for those aged 15-24 years at seroconversion to 7.9 years (7.4-8.5) for those aged 45-54 years at seroconversion, whereas for development of AIDS the corresponding values were 11.0 years (10.7-11.7) and 7.7 years (7.1-8.6). There was no appreciable effect of exposure category on survival. For AIDS incidence, the exposure category effect that we noted was explained by the high incidence of Kaposi's sarcoma in those infected through sex between men. We estimated that among people aged 25-29 years at seroconversion 90% (89-91) and 60% (57-62) survived to 5 years and 10 years, respectively, after seroconversion, whereas 13% (12-15) and 46% (44-49), respectively, developed AIDS (excluding Kaposi's sarcoma). Interpretation Before widespread use of highly-active antiretroviral therapy (before 1996), time since seroconversion and age at seroconversion were the major determinants of survival and development of AIDS in Europe, North America, and Australia.
    Lancet. 01/2000; 355(9210):1131-1137.
  • Journal of Lower Genital Tract Disease - J LOW GENIT TRACT DIS. 01/2000; 4(4):190-194.
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    ABSTRACT: To determine factors associated with survival and to assess the relative strength of CD4 cell count and HIV-1 RNA in predicting survival in a cohort of HIV-1-infected women. Prospective cohort, enrolled during 1994-1995, with median follow-up of 29 months Of 1769 HIV-infected women 252 died. In multivariate analyses, lower CD4 cell count, higher quantitative plasma HIV-1 RNA, and the presence of a self-reported AIDS-defining (Class C) condition were significantly associated with shorter survival: the relative hazard (RH) of dying was 1.17, 3.27, and 8.46, respectively for women with baseline CD4 cell count of 200-349, 50-199, and < 50 x 10(6) cells/l, compared with women with CD4 cell count of > or = 350 x 10(6) cells/l. Compared with women with HIV-1 RNA levels of < 4000 copies/ml plasma, the RH of dying for women with baseline quantitative HIV-1 RNA measurements of 4000-20,000, 20,000-100,000, 100,000-500,000 and > 500,000 copies/ml, was 2.19, 2.17, 3.16, and 7.25, respectively. CD4 cell count had as strong a prognostic value as HIV-1 RNA level, particularly among participants with more advanced immunodeficiency. When the analysis was adjusted to eliminate the distortion created by having disproportionately sized strata of the categorized variables, the relative hazard of death associated with CD4 cell count became even larger in comparison with that for HIV-1 RNA. Eliminating from the analysis all follow-up time during which participants could have received highly active antiretroviral therapy did not change these findings. Age was not a predictor of survival after adjustment for covariates. CD4 cell count and HIV-1 RNA had similar prognostic value in this cohort of HIV-1-infected women. Even in the presence of a low viral burden, a substantially decreased CD4 cell count remained a strong predictor of mortality.
    AIDS 10/1999; 13(13):1717-26. · 6.41 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: Objectives: To determine factors associated with survival and to assess the relative strength of CD4 cell count and HIV-1 RNA in predicting survival in a cohort of HIV-1-infected women. Design: Prospective cohort, enrolled during 1994-1995, with median follow-up of 29 months Results: Of 1769 HIV-infected women 252 died. In multivariate analyses, lower CD4 cell count, higher quantitative plasma HIV-1 RNA, and the presence of a self-reported AIDS-defining (Class C) condition were significantly associated with shorter survival: the relative hazard (RH) of dying was 1.17, 3.27, and 8.46, respectively for women with baseline CD4 cell count of 200-349, 50-199, and <50×106 cells/l, compared with women with CD4 cell count of ≥350×106 cells/l. Compared with women with HIV-1 RNA levels of <4000 copies/ml plasma, the RH of dying for women with baseline quantitative HIV-1 RNA measurements of 4000-20000, 20000-100000, 100000-500000 and >500000 copies/ml, was 2.19, 2.17, 3.16, and 7.25, respectively. CD4 cell count had as strong a prognostic value as HIV-1 RNA level, particularly among participants with more advanced immunodeficiency. When the analysis was adjusted to eliminate the distortion created by having disproportionately sized strata of the categorized variables, the relative hazard of death associated with CD4 cell count became even larger in comparison with that for HIV-1 RNA. Eliminating from the analysis all follow-up time during which participants could have received highly active antiretroviral therapy did not change these findings. Age was not a predictor of survival after adjustment for covariates. Conclusions: CD4 cell count and HIV-1 RNA had similar prognostic value in this cohort of HIV-1-infected women. Even in the presence of a low viral burden, a substantially decreased CD4 cell count remained a strong predictor of mortality.
    AIDS 09/1999; 13(13):1717-1726. · 6.41 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: Effective HIV-1 therapies may directly or indirectly impact the development of AIDS-associated malignancies. Using data from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study, a longitudinal cohort study of the natural history of HIV-1 infection among homosexual men, the incidence rates of Kaposi's sarcoma (KS) and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) over calendar time were determined for the 1813 HIV-1-seropositive men enrolled in 1984 through 1985. Poisson regression models were used to identify statistically significant temporal trends. Nested case control studies were used to assess whether recent cases of these malignancies represented treatment breakthroughs. The incidence of KS as a presenting AIDS illness significantly (p = .003) declined from 25.6 cases per 1000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI], 21.8-29.9) in the early 1990s to an average incidence of 7.5 per 1000 person-years (95% CI, 3.4-16.7) in 1996 through 1997. In contrast, the incidence of NHL has continued to increase significantly (p < .001) at a rate of 21% per year since 1985, although a possible recent decrease is suggested. None of the recent KS cases and only 1 of 8 NHL cases had used the potent antiretroviral therapies, compared with >70 percent of the HIV-1-seropositive men who were free of malignancies and observed over the same time period. These results may be due to an indirect protection against developing KS by the boosting of the immune system by antiretroviral therapies. However, it is important to clarify the direct therapeutic effect on the pathogenic disease mechanism of human herpesvirus type 8 (HHV-8), the agent postulated to be important in the causal pathway of KS. The absence of a similar effect on NHL may be due to a lack of effect on its pathogenesis or because potent antiretroviral therapies need to be administered early in the disease process and the cases that have occurred represent outcomes following a long latency period. With additional follow-up, an impact on NHL may yet be observed.
    JAIDS Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes 09/1999; 21 Suppl 1:S34-41. · 4.65 Impact Factor