Publications (2)11.41 Total impact
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Article: Predicting complications of percutaneous coronary intervention using a novel support vector method.
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ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE: To explore the feasibility of a novel approach using an augmented one-class learning algorithm to model in-laboratory complications of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from the Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan Cardiovascular Consortium (BMC2) multicenter registry for the years 2007 and 2008 (n=41 016) were used to train models to predict 13 different in-laboratory PCI complications using a novel one-plus-class support vector machine (OP-SVM) algorithm. The performance of these models in terms of discrimination and calibration was compared to the performance of models trained using the following classification algorithms on BMC2 data from 2009 (n=20 289): logistic regression (LR), one-class support vector machine classification (OC-SVM), and two-class support vector machine classification (TC-SVM). For the OP-SVM and TC-SVM approaches, variants of the algorithms with cost-sensitive weighting were also considered. RESULTS: The OP-SVM algorithm and its cost-sensitive variant achieved the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the majority of the PCI complications studied (eight cases). Similar improvements were observed for the Hosmer-Lemeshow χ(2) value (seven cases) and the mean cross-entropy error (eight cases). CONCLUSIONS: The OP-SVM algorithm based on an augmented one-class learning problem improved discrimination and calibration across different PCI complications relative to LR and traditional support vector machine classification. Such an approach may have value in a broader range of clinical domains.Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association 04/2013; · 3.61 Impact Factor -
Article: Looking beyond historical patient outcomes to improve clinical models.
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ABSTRACT: Conventional algorithms for modeling clinical events focus on characterizing the differences between patients with varying outcomes in historical data sets used for the model derivation. For many clinical conditions with low prevalence and where small data sets are available, this approach to developing models is challenging due to the limited number of positive (that is, event) examples available for model training. Here, we investigate how the approach of developing clinical models might be improved across three distinct patient populations (patients with acute coronary syndrome enrolled in the DISPERSE2-TIMI33 and MERLIN-TIMI36 trials, patients undergoing inpatient surgery in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program registry, and patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention in the Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan Cardiovascular Consortium registry). For each of these cases, we supplement an incomplete characterization of patient outcomes in the derivation data set (uncensored view of the data) with an additional characterization of the extent to which patients differ from the statistical support of their clinical characteristics (censored view of the data). Our approach exploits the same training data within the derivation cohort in multiple ways to improve the accuracy of prediction. We position this approach within the context of traditional supervised (2-class) and unsupervised (1-class) learning methods and present a 1.5-class approach for clinical decision-making. We describe a 1.5-class support vector machine (SVM) classification algorithm that implements this approach, and report on its performance relative to logistic regression and 2-class SVM classification with cost-sensitive weighting and oversampling. The 1.5-class SVM algorithm improved prediction accuracy relative to other approaches and may have value in predicting clinical events both at the bedside and for risk-adjusted quality of care assessment.Science translational medicine 04/2012; 4(131):131ra49. · 7.80 Impact Factor
