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ABSTRACT: We analyzed past and future trends in river export of dissolved nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) to the coastal waters of China,
for a selection of rivers, as calculated by the Global NEWS models (Nutrient Export from WaterSheds). Over the period 1970–2000, river export of dissolved nutrients increased considerably,
especially of dissolved inorganic N and P. Anthropogenic sources of N and P in rivers have become increasingly important,
in particular N and P losses from agriculture. We tested the sensitivity of calculated nutrient export by rivers to changes
in selected controlling factors. The calculated export of dissolved N and P is sensitive to changes in hydrology, synthetic
fertilizer use and manure excretion in river basins. Changes in sewage inputs have large effects on dissolved inorganic P
export. We analyzed future trends up to 2050 for several scenarios to illustrate the combined effects of selected management
options. In the Base Scenario, the N and P export by the selected rivers increases considerably between 2000 and 2030. The
increase continues from 2030 to 2050 except for DIP. Strategies to reduce N and P export by rivers include changes in agriculture,
sewage and energy use. Changes in agriculture have the largest impact on future dissolved N and P river export to the coastal
waters of China. The effectiveness of reduction strategies differs between nutrient forms and basins.
KeywordsNutrient export–River–Coastal waters–Management strategy–Sensitivity analysis–Scenario
Regional Environmental Change 05/2012; 12(1):153-167. · 3.00 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: We analyze options to reduce the future environmental impact of dairy cattle production, using an optimization model (DAIRY) applied to the Czech Republic. The DAIRY model can be used to calculate the overall environmental impact (OEI). We show that aquatic eutrophication and global warming are the 2 most important problems caused by dairy cattle. These problems are largely caused by nitrate leaching and emissions from animal housing. The DAIRY model indicates that the costs of reducing the OEI in 2020 by 20% are 12 MEuro. It is most cost effective to achieve this reduction by improving the efficiency of animal manure used as fertilizer. We tested the sensitivity of the model to assumptions about the following: 1) the relative importance of environmental problems as expressed in weighting factors, and 2) future cattle numbers and milk yield per milking cow. The first case indicates that disagreement on which problem is most urgent need not lead to disagreement about policies to be undertaken. Regardless of the weighting factors used, aquatic eutrophication and global warming are the most important problems. However, the overall costs of reducing the OEI differ with alternative sets of weighting factors, because the costs of emission reduction differ among pollutants. The second case shows that the DAIRY model results are more sensitive to changes in cattle numbers than to changes in milk yield. This study is the first integrated assessment of dairy cattle production for a Central European country and illustrates how systematic analyses may help to find optimal solutions.
Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management 07/2010; 6(3):367-77.
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Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management 04/2010; 6(2):315-7.
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ABSTRACT: We analyzed the past and future trends in river export of dissolved and particulate nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and carbon (C) to the coastal waters of China, for sixteen rivers, as calculated by the Global NEWS models (Nutrient Export from WaterSheds). Between 1970 and 2000, the dissolved N and P export increased significantly, while export of other nutrients changed less. We analyzed the future trends (2000-2050) for the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) scenarios. In general, the largest increases of dissolved nutrients export are projected for the Global Orchestration scenario, assuming a globalized world and a reactive approach toward environmental management. Future trends in river export of nutrients vary largely among basins, nutrient forms and scenarios. We calculate both increasing and decreasing trends between 2000 and 2050. We also identify the sources contributing to the nutrient export. For selected river basins we present results for alternative scenarios, which are based on the Global Orchestration scenario, but assume more environmental management. This illustrates how the NEWS models can be useful in regional analyses for decision making.
Science of The Total Environment 04/2010; 408(9):2075-86. · 3.29 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: This study explores a model (MIKADO) to analyse scenarios for the reduction of the environmental impact of an aluminium die casting plant. Our model calculates the potential to reduce emissions, and the costs associated with implementation of reduction options. In an earlier paper [Neto, B., Kroeze, C., Hordijk, L., Costa, C., 2008. Modelling the environmental impact of an aluminium pressure die casting company and options for control. Environmental Modelling & Software 23 (2) 147-168] we included the model description and explored the model by applying it to a plant in which no reduction options are assumed to be implemented (so-called zero case, reflecting the current practice in the plant). Here, we perform a systematic analysis of reduction options. We analysed seven types of reduction strategies, assuming the simultaneous implementation of different reduction options. These strategies are analysed with respect to their potential to reduce emissions, environmental impact and costs associated with the implementation of options. These strategies were found to differ largely in their potential to reduce the environmental impact of the plant (10-87%), as well as in the costs associated with the implementation of options (-268 to +277keuro/year). We were able to define 11 strategies, reducing the overall environmental impact by more than 50%. Of these, two have net negative costs, indicating that the company may in fact earn money through their implementation.
Journal of Environmental Management 03/2008; 90(2):815-30. · 3.24 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: The study reported here focuses on the environmental pressure exerted by large-scale eucalyptus-based kraft pulp industry in Thailand. The objective of this study was to identify the most important sources of greenhouse gases, acidifying and eutrophying compounds and tropospheric ozone precursors, human toxicity compounds and solid waste associated with the kraft pulp industry. To this end, we performed an environmental systems analysis of the kraft pulp industry system in which we distinguished between two subsystems: the eucalyptus forestry subsystem and the kraft pulp production subsystem. The results indicate that the environmental pressure is caused by the kraft pulp production subsystem rather than by the eucalyptus forestry one. The chemical recovery unit was found to be the most important source of carbon dioxide (CO2) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) and responsible for more than one-half of the emissions of greenhouse gases and acidifying compounds from eucalyptus-based kraft pulp production in Thailand. Biomass combustion in the energy gene ration unit is an important source of nitrogen oxide (NO
x
) and carbon monoxide (CO) which in turn are responsible for over 50% of the emissions of tropospheric ozone precursors. About 73% of the eutrophication is caused by biological aerobic wastewater treatment emitting phosphorus (P). With respect to the eucalyptus forestry, only fertilizer use in eucalyptus plantations is a relevant source of pollution through the emission of nitrous oxide (N2O) and phosphate (PO
4
3−
).
Environment Development and Sustainability 04/2006; 8(2):289-311.
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ABSTRACT: This paper describes the application of an optimisation model for calculating cost-effective abatement strategies for the reduction of acidification in Europe while taking into account the dynamic character of soil acidification in a number of countries. Environmental constraints are defined in terms of soil quality indicators, e.g., pH, base saturation or the aluminium ion concentration in the soil solution within an optimisation model for transboundary air pollution.We present a case study for Ireland and the United Kingdom. Our results indicate that reduction of sulphur dioxide emission is more cost-effective than that of nitrogen oxides or ammonia. The reduction percentages for sulphur dioxide are highest, for two reasons: (i) marginal sulphur dioxide reduction costs are relatively low compared to marginal reduction costs of nitrogen oxides and ammonia and (ii) sulphur dioxide reduction is more effective in reducing acidification in physical terms than nitrogen oxides or ammonia abatement. Our dynamic analysis shows that a (fast) improvement of soil quality requires high emission reduction levels. These reduction levels are often higher than reduction levels that are typically deduced from the static critical loads approach. Once soil quality targets are reached, in our model, less stringent emission reductions are required to maintain the soil quality at a constant and good target level. Static critical load approaches that ignore dynamic aspects therefore may underestimate the emission reductions needed to achieve predefined soil quality targets.
Environmental Modeling and Assessment 08/2002; 7(3):163-178. · 0.97 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Environmental economics deals with the optimal allocation of production factors and correcting market failure in protecting the environment. Market failure occurs because of externalities, common property resources, and public goods. Environmental policy instruments include direct regulation, taxes/subsidies, tradable permits, deposit systems, voluntary agreements, and persuasion. Environmental policies usually focus on one pollutant or environmental issue but may have substantial impacts on other emissions and environmental problems. Neglecting these impacts will result in suboptimal policies. We present an integrated optimisation model for determining cost-effective strategies to simultaneously reduce emissions of several pollutants from several sources, allowing for interrelations between sources and abatement options. Our integrated approach in regard to acidifying compounds and greenhouse gases will be able to provide cost-effective policy options that will result in lower overall abatement costs. This paper shows that efficient emission reduction can be calculated, but we argue that, for transboundary air pollution and climate change, it is difficult to implement the socially optimal solution because strong incentives exist for "free-riding". In order to implement efficient policies, international environmental agreements like the Gothenburg or the Kyoto Protocol are necessary to establish stable coalitions. The stability of these agreements depends on the distribution of costs and benefits over countries and on the redistribution of the gains of cooperation.
TheScientificWorldJOURNAL 06/2002; 2:1254-66. · 1.66 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: In this paper, present-day emissions of greenhouse gases and acidifying compounds from agriculture are analysed at the farm
level. Quantitative estimates are given for these emissions from three nested systems in the Netherlands: the agricultural
sector, greenhouse horticulture, and tomato cultivation under glass. Total emissions are subdivided into emissions from biogenic
sources and abiogenic sources. We conclude that, although most of the emissions from the agricultural sector have biogenic
sources, those from abiogenic sources should not be neglected. Abiogenic emissions are mainly from greenhouse horticulture.
The cost-effectiveness of options to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions from on-farm combustion of natural gas in tomato cultivation under glass is analysed. An inventory is given of
technical reduction options that are presently available in practice. Based on information about the costs and the reduction
potential of each option, cost-efficiency curves are derived for both types of emissions. Relative to a situation where none
of the described options were applied (early nineties), CO2 and NOx emissions from tomato cultivation can be reduced at most by about 70% and 75%, respectively, by combinations of technical
options.
Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems 01/2001; 60(1):209-218. · 1.79 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: This study describes a model (MIKADO) to analyse options to reduce the environmental impact of aluminium die casting. This model will take a company perspective, so that it can be used as a decision-support tool for the environmental management of a plant. MIKADO can be used to perform scenario analyses to analyse the impact on the environment of different strategies, while taking into account both economical and ecological consequences of decision-making. The MIKADO approach is based on relevant parts of Life Cycle Assessment, environmental systems management and Multi-Criteria Analysis. One of the strengths of MIKADO is the integrated approach that it takes in analysing, simultaneously, a set of eight environmental problems, including: human toxicity, abiotic depletion, global warming, solid waste production, acidification, terrestrial ecotoxicity, photochemical ozone formation and aquatic toxicity, caused by the aluminium die casting plant. The model is developed for and applied to a specific aluminium die casting plant supplying car manufacturers with aluminium die casting products. We present model results for a reference case, indicating that most of the environmental impact of the plant is associated with releases of compounds during the melting and casting of alloy, as well as with the use of natural gas. Finally, we present results of a partial sensitivity analysis, indicating the sensitivity of the model to changes in parameter values.
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ABSTRACT: This study gives an overview of selected Industrial Ecology (IE) tools in current use by industry and that could be used to assess the environmental performance. The tools selected are considered to be useful for a decision support tool (DST) that takes a company perspective, while considering environmental and economic aspects on the decision-making process. We define criteria for a first selection of IE tools. The criteria are related to the usefulness of a tool in an analysis that: 1) takes a company perspective; 2) includes environmental and economic aspects of decision making; 3) includes a complete coverage of the potential environmental impacts and 4) allows for an assessment of the consequences of pollution reduction strategies. Based on the purpose of our DST, together with the criteria, we identified twelve tools. These twelve tools are reviewed with respect to their purpose, methodology, final product, strengths, weaknesses and relevance for an environmental analysis taking a company perspective. Next, we present the characteristics of the DST. These characteristics allow for identifying the IE tools that are a promising basis for the DST. These seven characteristics are: the tool considers a gate-to-gate approach; the tool considers the processes within the company that are relevant for the assessment of the environmental impact; the tool uses company specific data easily available from the process owner; the tool considers up-to-date and company specific pollution reduction options; the tool provides information on the cost-effectiveness of the reduction options; the tool can be used to express the company’s environmental performance in one overall environmental indicator; and lastly the tool can be used to explore possible user-defined pollution reduction strategies. Finally, a selection of the tools that are useful for our particular DST is made. We conclude that a combination of the following seven tools is most promising: Life Cycle Assessment, Substance Flow Analysis, Multi-Criteria Analysis, Technology Assessment, Sensitivity Analysis, Scenario Analysis and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.
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ABSTRACT: Agricultural emissions of NH3, N2O, and CH4 come, to a large extent, from common sources. It has been demonstrated that controlling NH3 emissions through application of technical measures might have an impact on emissions of N2O and CH4. This paper presents estimates of NH3, N2O and CH4 emissions from European agriculture for 1990 and four scenarios for the year 2010. The first scenario assumes no specific NH3 abatement, but emissions of all three gases decline between 1990 and 2010 as a result of projected reductions in animal numbers and fertiliser consumption in Europe. The other three scenarios assume different levels of NH3 abatement in Europe, including the maximum feasible reduction case. They are compared with respect to their effect on emissions of N2O and CH4. The results indicate that in Europe, abating agricultural emissions of NH3 may cause releases of N2O from this sector up to 15% higher than in the case of no NH3 control. There may be substantial differences in the observed effects between various countries depending on the degree and type of NH3 control options applied. The effect of NH3 abatement on CH4 emissions was found to be negligible.
Atmospheric Environment.
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ABSTRACT: This article focuses on the science–policy interaction in international negotiations in the context of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe's Convention for Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP). It addresses the question how participants in the assessment process divide and co-ordinate work between science and policy and how this enhances credibility, legitimacy and relevance with multiple audiences. For this purpose the article combines an analytical framework to approach effectiveness of scientific assessment in policy making, with the notion of boundary work and co-production of science and policy. The article argues that knowledge produced within the CLRTAP process and the institutional setting in which this knowledge production takes place cannot be separated from each other. Furthermore credibility, legitimacy and relevance are to a large extent determined by boundary work in an early stage of the process. At the same time boundary work has to take place continuously in order keep the assessment process credible, legitimate and relevant for new audiences. The application of a combined framework for analysing credibility, legitimacy and relevance and for analysing boundary work turns out to be helpful in describing in detail what happens in practice at the science–policy interface. In particular it helps to address the question of the way participants in the assessment process divide and co-ordinate work, how this shapes design elements and how this enhances credibility legitimacy and relevance of an assessment.
Global Environmental Change.
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ABSTRACT: Rubber production has been taking place in Thailand for many decades. Thailand is currently the world's largest natural rubber producer. We present emissions of greenhouse gases associated with the production of fresh latex, and three primary rubber products, including concentrated latex, block rubber (STR 20), and ribbed smoked sheet (RSS) in Thailand. Besides industrial activities in the rubber mills, the agricultural activities in rubber tree plantation are taken into account. The overall emissions from the production of concentrated latex, STR 20, and RSS amount to 0.54, 0.70, and 0.64 ton CO2-eq/ton product, respectively. This is for the case that rubber plantations have been located on cultivated lands for more than 60 years, which is current practice in most of Thailand. Emissions are largely associated with energy use and the use of synthetic fertilizers. We also quantify emissions for the case that tropical forests have been converted to rubber plantations relatively recently, which is a recent trend in Thailand. In this case the emissions are much higher because of carbon loss from land conversion: 13, 13, and 21 ton CO2-eq/ton product for concentrated latex, STR 20, and RSS, respectively. We discuss the implications of our results for strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from rubber production.
Journal of Cleaner Production.
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ABSTRACT: Agriculture contributes to global warming through emissions of nitrous oxide, and methane, and to acidification mainly through emissions of ammonia. Measures to reduce one of these gases may affect emissions of others. Policies neglecting these interrelations may be sub_optimal. This study investigated interrelations between abatement of ammonia, nitrous oxide, and methane from European agriculture. We first studied how emission reduction technologies simultaneously affect the emissions of these three gases. Next, we analyzed for the Netherlands how the costs of emission reduction are affected when these interrelations are included in the analysis. Cost_effectiveness analysis of emission reductions in agriculture in the Netherlands indicates that increased nitrous oxide emissions due to ammonia abatement can be avoided at low cost. Finally we calculated at the European level the side_effects on ammonia emissions and the greenhouse gases nitrous oxide and methane of various emissions scenarios for European agriculture. We estimated that nitrous oxide emissions from European agriculture may increase as a side_effect of ammonia abatement, whereas ammonia emissions may decrease due to nitrous oxide and methane mitigation. The conclusion is that simultaneous reductions in emissions can be realized at lower overall costs using an integrated approach.
Ecological Economics.
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ABSTRACT: This study presents an overview of options aiming to reduce emissions to air, soil and water from an aluminium die casting plant located in Portugal. We identify eighteen pollution reduction options and then estimate their potential to reduce the pollution, and the costs associated with their implementation to the die casting plant. The different types of options considered include typical end-of-pipe solutions, as well as alternative techniques or modifications in process operations of the plant. Finally, we calculate the implementation costs for the company of each reduction option.We conclude that there are promising opportunities to reduce the pollution from aluminium pressure die casting. Our inventory includes options with net negative costs, indicating that the company may in fact gain from implementing these options. Even though our study specifically focuses on one particular plant, the results may be interesting for the aluminium pressure die casting sector industry in general.
Resources, Conservation and Recycling.
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ABSTRACT: Kraft pulp industry contributes to several environmental problems, including global warming, acidification, eutrophication, smog, toxicity and the production of solid waste. The objective of this study is to identify options to reduce the environmental pressure caused by Kraft pulp industry in Thailand, and to describe a model that quantifies the environmental impact. The model can be used to evaluate the effects of the options on the environmental impact, and the associated costs. The model includes 14 groups of options to reduce emissions and the production of waste.
Journal of Cleaner Production.
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ABSTRACT: This study explores possible future trends in the environmental impact of the Kraft pulp industry in Thailand between 2000 and 2020. Scenarios were developed to analyze the effect of different options to reduce the future environmental impact, and the costs associated with the implementation of these options. The analysis indicates that without currently applied reduction options the environmental impact would be twice as high as it currently is. For a Business-as-Usual scenario, in which no additional pollution reduction options are assumed to be implemented, the overall environmental impact is calculated to increase between 2000 and 2020 by a factor of two. Next, five Environmental Policy scenarios reflecting different strategies were defined to reduce the environmental impact. The results indicate that it is theoretically possible to reduce the overall environmental impact by almost 50% relative to the BAU 2020 levels. This scenario, however, may not be feasible because of the high costs involved. Four other Environmental Policy scenarios result in a reduction of the impact by 24–37% relative to the BAU scenario. Based on these results, it can be concluded that there are different ways to reduce the overall environmental impact by about one-third relative to BAU trends. Relatively large differences in the costs of the options included in the scenarios were also observed. We conclude that combining the most cost-effective options may be the most interesting strategy for reducing the overall environmental impact of Kraft pulp industry in Thailand.
Environmental Science & Policy.
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ABSTRACT: Agriculture is an important source of NH3, which contributes to acidification and eutrophication, as well as emissions of the greenhouse gases CH4 and N2O. Because of their common sources, emission reduction measures for one of these gases may affect emissions of others. These interrelations are often ignored in policy making. This study presents an analysis of the effects of measures to reduce NH3 emissions on emissions of N2O and CH4 from agriculture in Europe. The analysis combines information from the NH3 module of the Regional Air pollution INformation and Simulation (RAINS) model for Europe with the IPCC method for national greenhouse gas inventories. The IPCC method for estimating agricultural emissions of N2O and CH4 is adjusted in order to use it in combination with the RAINS database for the European agricultural sector. As an example, we applied the adjusted method to the agricultural sector in the Netherlands and found that application of several NH3 abatement options may result in a substantial increase in N2O emissions while the effect on CH4 emissions is relatively small. In Part 2 of this paper we focus on the resulting emissions for all European countries for 1990 and 2010.
Atmospheric Environment.
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ABSTRACT: This paper reviews 20 acid rain models, with special emphasis on integrated assessment models. Most integrated assessment models for acid rain are developed as tools to assist policy makers in evaluating different abatement options. Such models therefore typically deal with the problem from causes to environmental effects. In this overview, we only include models that at least cover three of the following five components: (i) sources of emissions, (ii) atmospheric transport and transformations, (iii) environmental effects, (iv) abatement and mitigation options and (v) monetary evaluation.
European Journal of Operational Research.
