[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND Overall declines in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) mortality may mask patterns for subgroups, and prior studies of disparities in mortality have used area-level vs individual-level socioeconomic status measures. The aim of this study was to examine temporal trends in HIV mortality by sex, race/ethnicity, and individual level of education (as a proxy for socioeconomic status). METHODS We examined HIV deaths among non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, and Hispanic men and women aged 25 to 64 years in 26 states (1993-2007; N = 91 307) reported to the National Vital Statistics System. The main outcome measures were age-standardized HIV death rates, rate differences, and rate ratios by educational attainment and between the least- and the most-educated (≤12 vs ≥16 years) individuals. RESULTS Between 1993-1995 and 2005-2007, mortality declined for most men and women by race/ethnicity and educational levels, with the greatest absolute decreases for nonwhites owing to their higher baseline rates. Among men with the most education, rates per 100 000 population decreased from 117.89 (95% CI, 101.08-134.70) to 15.35 (12.08-18.62) in blacks vs from 26.42 (24.93-27.92) to 1.79 (1.50-2.08) in whites. Rates were unchanged for the least-educated black women (26.76; 95% CI, 24.30-29.23; during 2005-2007) and remained high for similarly educated black men (52.71; 48.96-56.45). Relative declines were greater with increasing levels of education (P < .001), resulting in widening disparities. Among men, the disparity rate ratio (comparing the least and the most educated) increased from 1.04 (95% CI, 0.89-1.21) during 1993-1995 to 3.43 (2.74-4.30) during 2005-2007 for blacks and from 0.98 (0.91-1.05) to 2.82 (2.34-3.40) for whites. CONCLUSION Although absolute declines in HIV mortality were greatest for nonwhites, rates remain high among blacks, especially in the lowest educated groups, underscoring the need for additional interventions.
Archives of internal medicine 10/2012; · 11.46 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Although overall cervical cancer incidence rates have decreased in both black and white women in the U.S. since the mid 1950s due to widespread screening, rates continue to be higher among blacks than among whites. However, whether this pattern differs by age is unknown. METHODS: Cervical cancer cases (1975-2009, N=36,503) were obtained from nine Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program registries. Age-standardized incidence rates for white and black women were calculated from 1975-1979 through 2005-2009 by age group (<50, 50-64, and ≥65years). Rate ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) evaluated differences in rates for blacks vs. whites by age group and stage at diagnosis during 1975-1979 and 2005-2009. RESULTS: Among women aged <50years, the black-to-white disparity RR decreased from nearly two-fold (RR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.7-2.1) during 1975-1979 to unity during 2005-2009 (RR, 0.9; 95% CI, 0.8-1.0). In contrast, rates remained significantly elevated for blacks vs. whites aged 50-64years (RR, 2.4; 95% CI, 2.1-2.7 and 1.7; 95% CI, 1.5-2.0), and for those aged ≥65years (RR, 3.3; 95% CI, 2.9-3.8 and 2.2; 95% CI, 1.9-2.7) during both time periods, although the disparities decreased over time. Similar disparities persisted for older black women with cervical cancer of all stages. CONCLUSION: Disparities in cervical cancer incidence rates were eliminated for younger blacks vs. whites but persisted for blacks aged 50years and older. Additional strategies are needed to increase follow-up and treatment of precancerous lesions among middle-aged and older black women.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: The current study was undertaken to evaluate the spatiotemporal projection models applied by the American Cancer Society to predict the number of new cancer cases.
Adaptations of a model that has been used since 2007 were evaluated. Modeling is conducted in 3 steps. In step I, ecologic predictors of spatiotemporal variation are used to estimate age-specific incidence counts for every county in the country, providing an estimate even in those areas that are missing data for specific years. Step II adjusts the step I estimates for reporting delays. In step III, the delay-adjusted predictions are projected 4 years ahead to the current calendar year. Adaptations of the original model include updating covariates and evaluating alternative projection methods. Residual analysis and evaluation of 5 temporal projection methods were conducted.
The differences between the spatiotemporal model-estimated case counts and the observed case counts for 2007 were < 1%. After delays in reporting of cases were considered, the difference was 2.5% for women and 3.3% for men. Residual analysis indicated no significant pattern that suggested the need for additional covariates. The vector autoregressive model was identified as the best temporal projection method.
The current spatiotemporal prediction model is adequate to provide reasonable estimates of case counts. To project the estimated case counts ahead 4 years, the vector autoregressive model is recommended to be the best temporal projection method for producing estimates closest to the observed case counts.
Cancer 02/2012; 118(4):1100-9. · 5.20 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: A study was undertaken to evaluate the temporal projection methods that are applied by the American Cancer Society to predict 4-year-ahead projections.
Cancer mortality data recorded in each year from 1969 through 2007 for the United States overall and for each state from the National Center for Health Statistics was obtained. Based on the mortality data through 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2003, Projections were made 4 years ahead to estimate the expected number of cancer deaths in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, respectively, in the United States and in each state, using 5 projection methods. These predictive estimates were compared to the observed number of deaths that occurred for all cancers combined and 47 cancer sites at the national level, and 21 cancer sites at the state level.
Among the models that were compared, the joinpoint regression model with modified Bayesian information criterion selection produced estimates that are closest to the actual number of deaths. Overall, results show the 4-year-ahead projection has larger error than 3-year-ahead projection of death counts when the same method is used. However, 4-year-ahead projection from the new method performed better than the 3-year-ahead projection from the current state-space method.
The Joinpoint method with modified Bayesian information criterion model has the smallest error of all the models considered for 4-year-ahead projection of cancer deaths to the current year for the United States overall and for each state. This method will be used by the American Cancer Society to project the number of cancer deaths starting in 2012.
Cancer 02/2012; 118(4):1091-9. · 5.20 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Each year, the American Cancer Society estimates the numbers of new cancer cases and deaths expected in the United States in the current year and compiles the most recent data on cancer incidence, mortality, and survival based on incidence data from the National Cancer Institute, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries and mortality data from the National Center for Health Statistics. A total of 1,638,910 new cancer cases and 577,190 deaths from cancer are projected to occur in the United States in 2012. During the most recent 5 years for which there are data (2004-2008), overall cancer incidence rates declined slightly in men (by 0.6% per year) and were stable in women, while cancer death rates decreased by 1.8% per year in men and by 1.6% per year in women. Over the past 10 years of available data (1999-2008), cancer death rates have declined by more than 1% per year in men and women of every racial/ethnic group with the exception of American Indians/Alaska Natives, among whom rates have remained stable. The most rapid declines in death rates occurred among African American and Hispanic men (2.4% and 2.3% per year, respectively). Death rates continue to decline for all 4 major cancer sites (lung, colorectum, breast, and prostate), with lung cancer accounting for almost 40% of the total decline in men and breast cancer accounting for 34% of the total decline in women. The reduction in overall cancer death rates since 1990 in men and 1991 in women translates to the avoidance of about 1,024,400 deaths from cancer. Further progress can be accelerated by applying existing cancer control knowledge across all segments of the population, with an emphasis on those groups in the lowest socioeconomic bracket.
CA A Cancer Journal for Clinicians 01/2012; 62(1):10-29. · 153.46 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Colorectal cancer (CRC) mortality rates have been decreasing for many decades in the United States, with the decrease accelerating in the most recent time period. The extent to which this decrease varies across states and its influence on the geographic patterns of rates is unknown.
We analyzed the temporal trend in age-standardized CRC death rates for each state from 1990 to 2007 using joinpoint regression. We also examined the change in death rates between 1990-1994 and 2003-2007 using rate ratios with 95% confidence intervals and illustrated the change in pattern using maps. The relationship between the change in mortality rates and CRC screening rates for 2004 by state was examined using Pearson's correlation.
CRC mortality rates significantly decreased in all states except Mississippi between 1990 and 2007 based on the joinpoint model. The decrease in death rates between 1990-1994 and 2003-2007 ranged from 9% in Alabama to greater than 33% in Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New York, and Alaska; Mississippi and Wyoming showed no significant decrease. Generally, the northeastern states showed the largest decreases, whereas southern states showed the smallest decreases. The highest CRC mortality rates shifted from the northeastern states during 1990 to 1994 to the southern states along the Appalachian corridor during 2003 to 2007. The decrease in CRC mortality rates by state correlated strongly with uptake of screening (r = -0.65, P < 0.0001).
Progress in reducing CRC mortality varies across states, with the Northeast showing the most progress and the South showing the least progress.
These findings highlight the need for wider dissemination of CRC screening.