[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Background: From the mid-1980s to mid-1990s, the WHO MONICA Project monitored coronary events and classic risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) in 38 populations from 21 countries. We assessed the extent to which changes in these risk factors explain the variation in the trends in coronary-event rates across the populations.
Methods: In men and women aged 35—64 years, non-fatal myocardial infarction and coronary deaths were registered continuously to assess trends in rates of coronary events. We carried out population surveys to estimate trends in risk factors. Trends in event rates were regressed on trends in risk score and in individual risk factors.
Findings: Smoking rates decreased in most male populations but trends were mixed in women; mean blood pressures and cholesterol concentrations decreased, bodymass index increased, and overall risk scores and coronary-event rates decreased. The model of trends in 10-year coronary-event rates against risk scores and single risk factors showed a poor fit, but this was improved with a 4-year time lag for coronary events. The explanatory power of the analyses was limited by imprecision of the estimates and homogeneity of trends in the study populations.
Interpretation: Changes in the classic risk factors seem to partly explain the variation in population trends in CHD. Residual variance is attributable to difficulties in measurement and analysis, including time lag, and to factors that were not included, such as medical interventions. The results support prevention policies based on the classic risk factors but suggest potential for prevention beyond these.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: SUMMARY: The WHO MONICA Project is designed to measure the trends in mortality and morbidity from coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke, and to assess the extent to which they are related to changes in known risk factors in different populations in 27 countries. Risk-factor data are collected from population samples examined in at least two population surveys (one at the beginning of the study and the other at the end). The results of the baseline population surveys are presented. In populations studied, the proportion of smokers varied between 34-62% among men and 3-52% among women. The population median of systolic blood pressure varied between 121-146 mmHg in men. In women the figures were 118 mmHg and 141 mmHg respectively. In diastolic blood pressure, the variation of median was from 74 mmHg to over 91 mmHg among men and from 72-89 mmHg among women. The third major risk factor considered was total cholesterol, with the population median ranging between 4.1-6.4 mmol/l among men and 4.2-6.3 mmol/l among women. Caution is required when making cross-sectional comparisons between the risk-factor levels as the MONICA Project was not designed for this purpose. Nevertheless, these data demonstrate clearly the large variety of baseline risk-factor patterns in populations studied in the MONICA Project.
MeSH Terms: Adult; Australia; Blood Pressure; Body Weight; China; Cholesterol/blood; Coronary Disease/etiology*; Data Interpretation, Statistical; Europe; Female; Humans; Male; Middle Aged; Population Surveillance*; Quality Control; Risk Factors; Smoking/statistics & numerical data; USSR; World Health Organization;
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: It is well established that hypertensive patients benefit from drug treatment of their disorder. In recent years three major out-come studies of antihypertensive treatment in elderly hypertensives have shown substantial benefits, i.e. a reduction in the risk of stroke and other cardiovascular mortality and morbidity. In all these studies β-blockers and/or diuretics were used in comparison with placebo. Newer therapeutic alternatives have, however, at least theoretically, many advantages which could result in further improvements in prognosis. The initial Swedish Trial in Old Patients with Hypertension (STOP-Hypertension 1) was conducted in men and women aged 70–84 years. STOP-Hypertension 2 will evaluate the therapy used in STOP-Hypertension 1 against therapy based on either ACE-inhibitors (enalapril and lisinopril) or on calcium antagonists (isradipine and felodipine), using the PROBE design (Prospective, Randomised, Open, Blinded Endpoint evaluation). The primary aim will be to assess the effect on cardiovascular mortality. Statistical calculations indicate that 6,600 patients, followed for four years will be needed (2p < 0.05, power 90%) to obtain significance if there is a 25% difference between the new and the established therapy. Patients in primary health care (300 centres) will be included if their supine blood pressure is ≥ 180/105 mmHg (and/or). Recruitment of patients started in September 1992 and so far more than 100 patients/week have been included.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: A non-intensive stroke unit of 10 beds has been started in the Medical Department, Serafimerlasarettet, Stockholm. The aim is to make diagnostic and therapeutic studies in unselected stroke patients. Patients with suspect cerebrovascular disease in the Casualty Department are admitted to the unit non-selectively and without any age limit. Relevant physical findings and laboratory data are followed and registered by code on special charts to make evaluation by computer possible. A preplanned investigative programme is adhered to. Strict criteria for diagnosis and treatment are followed. The experience and results from the first 100 patients treated in the Stroke Unit indicate that the unit is a good basis for both education and research.
Journal of Internal Medicine 04/2009; 205(1‐6):231 - 235. · 6.46 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Priorities in the care of stroke patients are often intuitive. An open and translucent priority-setting procedure would benefit patients, professionals, and decision-makers. Prioritization is an innovative part of the new Swedish national stroke guidelines.
Working groups identified diagnostic procedures, interventions and therapies in stroke care, assessed each one according to severity (needs), effect of action, level of scientific evidence and cost-effectiveness. The items were then ranked into priority groups from 1 (highest) to 10 (lowest). Procedures lacking evidence for routine clinical use were also identified (and entered a do-not-do list), as well as procedures in research and development. Resource allocations resulting from the priority-setting process were identified.
Of 102 core procedures identified, 50 were assigned to high-priority groups (1-3), 29 to moderate priority groups (4-7) and 23 to low priority groups (8-10). Almost a quarter were graded 8 to 10, indicating that they may not necessarily be applied if resources are scarce. Twenty-eight procedures were assigned to the do-not-do list and 16 to the research and development list.
In stroke services, it is possible to identify not only diagnostic procedures and interventions with high priority, but also a considerable number of items used today that have low priority or should not be used at all. Strict adherence to the guidelines would result in a substantial reallocation of resources from low-priority to high-priority areas.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: The National Board of Health and Welfare together with Riks-Stroke (the Swedish National Registry for Quality Assessment of Acute Stroke Care) initiated a follow-up 2 years after a stroke event in 10,303 individuals, registrated in Riks-Stroke during the first 6 months of 2001. The aim was to evaluate the health status of the patients and the burden and needs of the spouses. 6,695 patients (65 percent) were alive. 4,729 patients (71 percent) answered the questionnaire. 2,367 spouses answered a separate questionnaire. This study was compared with an almost identical study performed four years earlier. The results showed that more patients lived at home and were satisfied with help and support. Rehabilitation was still deficient for 30 percent, and more patients were highly dependent on support from next-of-kin. Thirty percent could stay alone less than half a day. These results will be used for improving rehabilitation for the stroke patients and support for their spouses.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: In this paper present two methods of estimating the trend, seasonality and noise in time series of coronary heart disease events. In contrast to previous work we use a non-linear trend, allow multiple seasonal components, and carefully examine the residuals from the fitted model. We show the importance of estimating these three aspects of the observed data to aid insight of the underlying process, although our major focus is on the seasonal components. For one method we allow the seasonal effects to vary over time and show how this helps the understanding of the association between coronary heart disease and varying temperature patterns.
Statistics in Medicine 11/2004; 23:3505-3523. · 2.04 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Background Cohort studies have shown that smoking has a substantial influence on coronary heart disease mortality in young people. Population based data on non-fatal events have been sparse, however.
Objective Study the impact of smoking on the risk of non-fatal acute myocardial infarction (MI) in young middle age people.
Methods From 1985 to 1994 all non-fatal MI events in the age group 35–64 were registered in men and women in the WHO MONICA (multinational monitoring of trends and determinants in cardiovascular disease) project populations (18 762 events in men and 4047 in women from 32 populations from 21 countries). In the same populations and age groups 65 741 men and 66 717 women participated in the surveys of risk factors (overall response rate 72%). The relative risk of non-fatal MI for current smokers was compared with non-smokers, by sex and five year age group.
Results The prevalence of smoking in people aged 35–39 years who experienced non-fatal MI events was 81% in men and 77% in women. It declined with increasing age to 45% in men aged 60–64 years and 36% in women, respectively. In the 35–39 years age group the relative risk of non-fatal MI for smokers was 4.9 (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.9 to 6.1) in men and 5.3 (95% CI 3.2 to 8.7) in women, and the population attributable fractions were 65% and 55%, respectively.
Conclusions During the study period more than half of the non-fatal MIs occurring in young middle age people can be attributed to smoking.
Tobacco Control 03/2004; 13:244–250. · 4.11 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Thrombolysis is a highly promising treatment in acute ischaemic stroke. There is evidence of positive effects at least up to three hours and most probably up to six. The risk of intracranial haemorrhage is increased fourfold with thrombolysis; risk factors other than the treatment as such have not been identified for certain; the risk is not related to giving thrombolysis during the 0-3 as opposed to the 3-6 hour time window. There is a non-significant excess of deaths, ranging from a small reduction to a substantial excess. There is not enough evidence to answer several questions regarding the influence of patient- and stroke characteristics on effectsize; death; and risk of intracranial haemorrhage. Giving priority to new large randomized controlled trials is essential to achieve this knowledge.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Background and Purpose— Mortality from stroke has been declining over recent decades in most countries, except in Eastern Europe. In this analysis, based on the World Health Organization Monitoring Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Disease (WHO MONICA) Project, we explored to what extent these trends are due to changes in stroke event rate and to changes in case fatality.
Methods— The WHO MONICA Project collected standardized data from 14 populations in 9 countries. All acute strokes occurring in men and women 35 to 64 years of age were included. Registration was carried out between 1982 and 1995, resulting in time spans from 7 to 13 years. Trends in event rates and case fatality were calculated as average annual percentage change.
Results— Up to 6-fold differences were observed in stroke mortality. Mortality declined in 8 of 14 populations in men and in 10 of 14 populations in women. An increase in mortality was observed in Eastern Europe. In the populations with a declining trend, about two thirds of the change could be attributed to a decline in case fatality. In populations with increasing mortality, the rise was explained by an increase in case fatality.
Conclusions— In most populations, changes in stroke mortality, whether declining or increasing, were principally attributable to changes in case fatality rather than changes in event rates. Whether this was due to changes in the management of stroke or changes in disease severity cannot be established on the basis of these results.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Background and Purpose— Previous studies have indicated a reasonably strong relationship between secular trends in classic cardiovascular risk factors and stroke incidence within single populations. To what extent variations in stroke trends between populations can be attributed to differences in classic cardiovascular risk factor trends is unknown.
Methods— In the World Health Organization Monitoring of Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Disease (WHO MONICA) Project, repeated population surveys of cardiovascular risk factors and continuous monitoring of stroke events have been conducted in 35- to 64-year-old people over a 7- to 13-year period in 15 populations in 9 countries. Stroke trends were compared with trends in individual risk factors and their combinations. A 3- to 4-year time lag between changes in risk factors and change in stroke rates was considered.
Results— Population-level trends in systolic blood pressure showed a strong association with stroke event trends in women, but there was no association in men. In women, 38% of the variation in stroke event trends was explained by changes in systolic blood pressure when the 3- to 4-year time lag was taken into account. Combining trends in systolic blood pressure, daily cigarette smoking, serum cholesterol, and body mass index into a risk score explained only a small fraction of the variation in stroke event trends.
Conclusions— In this study, it appears that variations in stroke trends between populations can be explained only in part by changes in classic cardiovascular risk factors. The associations between risk factor trends and stroke trends are stronger for women than for men.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: The National Board of Health and Welfare together with Riks-Stroke (the Swedish National Registry for Quality Assessment of Acute Stroke Care) were commissioned by the government to study the circumstances of 4,023 stroke patients, two years after the event. Both physical and psychological impairments together with psychosocial consequences were common. Approximately one fifth of the patients did not receive enough help and support, and the most common reason for this was the high cost. Instead many were dependent upon next-of-kin. This indicates that the long-term care of stroke patients needs to be improved.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: The long-term beneficial effects of stroke unit care have been proved in several randomized trials. However, there is a question of large-scale applicability in routine clinical practice of interventions used by dedicated investigators in small randomized trials. The objective of this study was to compare, 21/2 years after stroke, patients who had been treated in stroke units and those treated in general wards in routine clinical practice.
This is a prospective cohort study based on 8194 patients who were included, during the first 6 months in 1997, in Riks-Stroke, the Swedish National Register for quality assessment of acute stroke. Two years after the event, 5189 patients were still alive and 5104 were followed up with a postal questionnaire to which 4038 responded.
Among the group of patients who were independent in activities of daily living (ADL) functions before the stroke, patients who were treated in stroke units were less often dependent in ADL functions, after adjustment for case mix (OR, 0.79; CI, 0.66 to 0.94). If they also lived at home before the stroke, then they had a lower case-fatality rate 2 years after the stroke (OR, 0.81; CI, 0.72 to 0.92).
Long-term beneficial effects of treatment in stroke units were shown for patients who were independent in ADL functions before the stroke. No benefits were shown for patients who were dependent on help for primary ADL before the stroke. Further studies on this group of patients with more detailed outcome measures are needed.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: The benefits of treating hypertension in elderly diabetic patients, in terms of achieving reductions in cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, have been documented in several recent prospective trials. There has, however, been some controversy regarding the effect of different antihypertensive drugs on the frequency of myocardial infarction in this group of patients.
STOP Hypertension-2 was a prospective, randomized, open trial with blinded endpoint evaluation.
We studied 6614 elderly patients aged 70-84 years; 719 of them had diabetes mellitus at the start of the study (mean age 75.8 years). Patients were randomly assigned to one of three treatment strategies: conventional antihypertensive drugs (diuretics or beta-blockers), calcium antagonists, or angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors.
Reduction in blood pressure was similar in the three treatment groups of diabetics. The prevention of cardiovascular mortality was also similar; the frequency of this primary endpoint did not differ significantly between the three groups. There were, however, significantly fewer (P = 0.025) myocardial infarctions during ACE inhibitor treatment (n = 17) than during calcium antagonist treatment (n = 32; relative risk 0.51, 95% confidence interval 0.28-0.92); but a (non-significant) tendency to more strokes during ACE inhibitor treatment (n = 34 compared with n = 29; relative risk 1.16, 95% confidence interval 0.71-1.91).
Treatment of hypertensive diabetic patients with conventional antihypertensive drugs (diuretics, beta-blockers, or both) seemed to be as effective as treatment with newer drugs such as calcium antagonists or ACE inhibitors.
Journal of Hypertension 12/2000; 18(11):1671-5. · 4.22 Impact Factor