Publications (3)7.1 Total impact
- [show abstract] [hide abstract]
ABSTRACT: The objective of this study was to develop the stroke risk prediction model among Korean population with high risk of stroke. The data in this prospective cohort study came from 47,233 stroke events occurring over 13 years among 1,223,740 Koreans, aged 30-84 years, who were insured by the National Health Insurance Corporation (NHIC) and take a biennial medical examination from 1992 to 1995. The Cox proportional Hazard Model was used to develop the Korean Stroke Risk Prediction (KSRP) model for each sex. Also, the split-half method was applied for developing a model with the first half and for testing with the rest. The average 10-year risk for stroke was 3.52% for men and 3.66% for women. In general, actual stroke event rates were similar to the event rates predicted by the KSRP model. The discrimination using the KSRP model in the Korean cohort was high: the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.8165 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.7993-0.8337] for men and 0.8095 (0.7875-0.8315) for women. A graded association between predicted stroke risk and actual stroke event was observed in men [highest versus lowest deciles of the predicted risk (hazard ratio (HR) 63.17; 95% confidence interval (CI), 52.30-76.31)] and in women (HR, 120.34; 95% CI, 85.31-169.77). The KSRP model could be used to predict the risk of stroke and would provide a useful guide to identify the groups at high risk for stroke among Korean.Atherosclerosis 04/2008; 197(1):318-25. · 3.71 Impact Factor
- Korean Journal of Epidemiology. 01/2008; 30(1).
- [show abstract] [hide abstract]
ABSTRACT: To assess the reliability and accuracy of the Framingham coronary heart disease (CHD) risk function adapted by the Registre Gironí del Cor (REGICOR) investigators in Spain. A 5-year follow-up study was completed in 5732 participants aged 35-74 years. The adaptation consisted of using in the function the average population risk factor prevalence and the cumulative incidence observed in Spain instead of those from Framingham in a Cox proportional hazards model. Reliability and accuracy in estimating the observed cumulative incidence were tested with the area under the curve comparison and goodness-of-fit test, respectively. The Kaplan-Meier CHD cumulative incidence during the follow-up was 4.0% in men and 1.7% in women. The original Framingham function and the REGICOR adapted estimates were 10.4% and 4.8%, and 3.6% and 2.0%, respectively. The REGICOR-adapted function's estimate did not differ from the observed cumulated incidence (goodness of fit in men, p = 0.078, in women, p = 0.256), whereas all the original Framingham function estimates differed significantly (p<0.001). Reliabilities of the original Framingham function and of the best Cox model fit with the study data were similar in men (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve 0.68 and 0.69, respectively, p = 0.273), whereas the best Cox model fitted better in women (0.73 and 0.81, respectively, p<0.001). The Framingham function adapted to local population characteristics accurately and reliably predicted the 5-year CHD risk for patients aged 35-74 years, in contrast with the original function, which consistently overestimated the actual risk.Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health 01/2007; 61(1):40-7. · 3.39 Impact Factor