[show abstract][hide abstract] ABSTRACT: This paper examines empirical relationship between financial development and economic growth while incorporating the inflation rate effect on financial development for low income countries. The study focuses on both the indirect finance and the direct finance, separately as well as collectively. We apply most appropriate econometric methodology of Weinhold (1999) and Nair-Reichert and Weinhold (2001) for causality analysis in heterogeneous panel data. Two sets of results are reported. First, the relationship between financial development and economic growth from contemporaneous non-dynamic fixed effects panel estimation can at best be interpreted as mixed. Negative and statistically significant estimates of coefficient of the inflation and financial development interaction variable indicate that financial sector development is actually harmful for economic growth when inflation is rising. Second, in contrast with the recent evidence of Beck and Levine (2003), use of more appropriate econometric methodology of dynamic heterogeneous panel for causality analysis and a refined model reveal that there is no definite indication that finance spurs economic growth or growth spurs finance. Our findings are in line with the Lucas (1988) view on finance that the importance of financial matters is very badly over-stressed in popular and even much professional discussion.
[show abstract][hide abstract] ABSTRACT: This study estimates degree of intrinsic inflation persistence in Pakistan using aggregate price index, group level price indices, and individual commodity prices. Monthly data from 1959 to 2011 is used for the analysis. [SBP WP no. 52].
[show abstract][hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Standard errors (S.Es.) of month on month and year on year inflation in Pakistan are estimated based on data for the period of July 2001 to June 2010 using stochastic approach as well as extended stochastic approach to index numbers. A mechanism is developed to estimate S.E. of period average headline inflation using these approaches. This mechanism is then applied to estimate S.Es. of 12-month average inflation in Pakistan for July 2003 to June 2010. The systematic changes in the relative prices of different groups in the CPI basket for Pakistan are also estimated. [SBP No. 46]. URL:[http://www.sbp.org.pk/publications/wpapers/2012/wp46.pdf].
[show abstract][hide abstract] ABSTRACT: This paper estimates the size of informal economy in Pakistan by using monetary approach with some modifications, electricity consumption approach and MIMIC model. Under monetary approach, we take care of the issue of the stationarity of variables and use autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model instead of simple OLS and add education as an additional factor affecting the size of informal economy along with some other technical improvements in the standard monetary models. The electricity consumption approach and
MIMIC models are used for the first time in case of Pakistan. The results show that the informal economy in Pakistan has been about 30 percent of the total economy which declined considerably in 2000s. Currently, about 20 percent of the economic transactions are taking place in the informal sector.