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ABSTRACT: In this paper, we present a method to automatically segment chromospheric fibrils from Hα observations and further identify their orientation. We assume that chromospheric fibrils are aligned with the magnetic field. By comparing the orientation of the fibrils with the azimuth of the embedding chromospheric magnetic field extrapolated from a potential field model, the shear angle, a measure of nonpotentiality, along the fibrils is readily deduced. Following this approach, we make a quantitative assessment of the nonpotentiality of fibrils in two NOAA active regions (ARs): (1) the relatively simple AR 11092, observed with very high resolution by Interferometric Bidimensional Spectrometer, and (2) a β-γ-δ AR 9661, observed with median resolution by Big Bear Solar Observatory before and after an X1.6 flare.
The Astrophysical Journal 09/2011; 739(2):67. · 6.02 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: In this paper, we investigate whether incorporating sunspot-groups classification information would further improve the performance of our previous logistic regression based solar flare forecasting method, which uses only line-of-sight photospheric magnetic parameters. A dataset containing 4913 samples from the year 2000 to 2005 is constructed, in which 2721 samples from the year 2000, 2002 and 2004 are used as a training set, and the remaining 2192 samples from the year 2001, 2003 and 2005 are used as a testing set. Experimental results show that sunspot-groups classification combined with total gradient on the strong gradient polarity neutral line achieve the highest forecasting accuracy and thus it testifies sunspot-groups classification does help in solar flare forecasting.
Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union 07/2010; 6:446 - 450.
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ABSTRACT: We present a new method for automatically forecasting the occurrence of solar flares based on photospheric magnetic measurements. The method is a cascading combination of an ordinal logistic regression model and a support vector machine classifier. The predictive variables are three photospheric magnetic parameters, i.e., the total unsigned magnetic flux, length of the strong-gradient magnetic polarity inversion line, and total magnetic energy dissipation. The output is true or false for the occurrence of a certain level of flares within 24 hours. Experimental results, from a sample of 230 active regions between 1996 and 2005, show the accuracies of a 24-hour flare forecast to be 0.86, 0.72, 0.65 and 0.84 respectively for the four different levels. Comparison shows an improvement in the accuracy of X-class flare forecasting.
Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics 07/2010; 10(8):785. · 1.32 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: In this study, the photospheric vector magnetograms, obtained with the Spectro-Polarimeter of the Solar Optical Telescope on board Hinode, are used as the boundary conditions to extrapolate the three-dimensional nonlinear force-free (NLFF) coronal magnetic fields. The observed non-force-free photospheric magnetic fields are preprocessed toward the nearly force-free chromospheric magnetic fields. The performance of the preprocessing procedure is evaluated by comparing with chromospheric magnetic fields obtained by the Vector SpectroMagnetograph instrument located on the Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigations of the Sun Tower. Then, the weighted optimization method is applied to the preprocessed boundary data to extrapolate the NLFF fields with which we are able to estimate the free magnetic energy stored in the active regions. The magnitude scaling correlation between the free magnetic energy and the soft X-ray flare index (FI) of active regions is then studied. The latter quantifies the impending flare production of active regions over the subsequent 1, 2, and 3 day time windows. Based on 75 samples, we find a positive correlation between the free energy and the FI. We also study the temporal variation of free magnetic energy for three active regions, of which two are flare-active and one is flare-quiet during the observation over a period of several days. While the magnitude of free magnetic energy unambiguously differentiates between the flare-active and the flare-quiet regions, the temporal variation of free magnetic energy does not exhibit a clear and consistent pre-flare pattern. This may indicate that the trigger mechanism of flares is as important as the energy storage in active regions.
The Astrophysical Journal 03/2010; 713(1):440. · 6.02 Impact Factor
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Astrophysical Journal, v.713, 440-449 (2010).
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Astrophysical Journal, v.719, L56-L59 (2010).
