[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Reviewing the literature in many fields on proposed risk models reveals problems with the way many risk models are developed. Furthermore, papers reporting new risk models do not always provide sufficient information to allow readers to assess the merits of the model. In this review, we discuss sources of bias that can arise in risk model development. We focus on two biases that can be introduced during data analysis. These two sources of bias are sometimes conflated in the literature and we recommend the terms resubstitution bias and model-selection bias to delineate them. We also propose the RiGoR reporting standard to improve transparency and clarity of published papers proposing new risk models.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: AKI is a common and severe complication in patients with cirrhosis. AKI progression was previously shown to correlate with in-hospital mortality. Therefore, accurately predicting which patients are at highest risk for AKI progression may allow more rapid and targeted treatment. Urinary biomarkers of structural kidney injury associate with AKI progression and mortality in multiple settings of AKI but their prognostic performance in patients with liver cirrhosis is not well known.
Clinical Journal of the American Society of Nephrology 09/2014; · 5.25 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Adjudication of patient outcomes is a common practice in medical research and clinical trials. However minimal data exists on the adjudication process in the setting of Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) as well as the ability to judge different etiologies (e.g. Acute Tubular Necrosis (ATN), Pre-renal Azotemia (PRA)).
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: The field of nephrology is actively involved in developing biomarkers and improving models for predicting patients' risks of AKI and CKD and their outcomes. However, some important aspects of evaluating biomarkers and risk models are not widely appreciated, and statistical methods are still evolving. This review describes some of the most important statistical concepts for this area of research and identifies common pitfalls. Particular attention is paid to metrics proposed within the last 5 years for quantifying the incremental predictive value of a new biomarker.
Clinical Journal of the American Society of Nephrology 05/2014; · 5.25 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Interest in developing and using novel markers of kidney injury is increasing. To maintain scientific rigour in these endeavors, a comprehensive understanding of statistical methodology is required to rigorously assess the incremental value of novel biomarkers in existing clinical risk prediction models. Such knowledge is especially relevant, because no single statistical method is sufficient to evaluate a novel biomarker. In this review, we highlight the strengths and limitations of various traditional and novel statistical methods used in the literature for biomarker studies and use biomarkers of AKI as examples to show limitations of some popular statistical methods.
Journal of the American Society of Nephrology 05/2014; · 9.47 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a serious complication of cardiac operations for which there remains no specific therapy. Animal data and several observational studies suggest that statins prevent AKI, but the results are not conclusive, and many studies are retrospective in nature.
We conducted a multicenter prospective cohort study of 625 adult patients undergoing elective cardiac operations. All patients were taking statins and were grouped according to whether statins were continued or held in the 24 hours before operation. The primary outcome was AKI as defined by a doubling of serum creatinine or dialysis. The secondary outcome was the peak level of several kidney injury biomarkers. The results were adjusted for demographic and clinical factors.
Continuing (vs holding) a statin before operation was not associated with a lower risk of AKI, as defined by a doubling of serum creatinine or dialysis (adjusted relative risk [RR] 1.09; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.44, 2.70). However, continuing a statin was associated with a lower risk of elevation of the following AKI biomarkers: urine interleukin-18, urine neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin, urine kidney injury molecule-1, and plasma neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (adjusted RR 0.34; 95% CI 0.18, 0.62), (adjusted RR 0.41; 95% CI 0.22, 0.76), (adjusted RR 0.37; 95% CI 0.20, 0.76), (adjusted RR 0.62; 95% CI 0.39, 0.98), respectively.
Statins may prevent kidney injury after cardiac operations, as evidenced by lower levels of kidney injury biomarkers.
The Annals of thoracic surgery 04/2014; · 3.45 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Acute kidney injury (AKI) after pediatric cardiac operations is associated with poor outcomes and is difficult to predict. We conducted a prospective study to evaluate whether preoperative brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels predict postoperative AKI among children undergoing cardiac operations.
This was a three-center, prospective study (2007-2009) of 277 children undergoing cardiac operations (n = 121, aged <2 years) with available preoperative BNP values. Preoperative BNP was measured and categorized into tertiles. The performance of BNP was evaluated alone and in combination with clinical factors. AKI was defined as doubling of serum creatinine or need for acute dialysis.
Postoperative AKI occurred in 165 children (60%), with 118 cases (43%) being mild and 47 cases (17%) severe. Preoperative BNP was not associated with increased risk of mild or severe postoperative AKI and did not significantly improve AKI risk prediction when added to clinical models. Preoperative BNP was, however, associated with several clinical outcomes, including length of stay and mechanical ventilation. The results were similar when the analysis was repeated in the subset of children younger than 2 years of age or when the association of postoperative BNP and AKI was evaluated.
Preoperative BNP levels did not predict postoperative AKI in this cohort of children undergoing cardiac operations. Both preoperative and postoperative BNP levels are associated with postoperative outcomes. Clinical Trial Registration at Clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00774137.
The Annals of thoracic surgery 04/2014; · 3.45 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Urinary biomarkers of AKI provide prognostic value for in-hospital outcomes, but little is known about their association with longer-term mortality after surgery. We sought to assess the association between kidney injury biomarkers and all-cause mortality in an international, multicenter, prospective long-term follow-up study from six clinical centers in the United States and Canada composed of 1199 adults who underwent cardiac surgery between 2007 and 2009 and were enrolled in the Translational Research in Biomarker Endpoints in AKI cohort. On postoperative days 1-3, we measured the following five urinary biomarkers: neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin, IL-18, kidney injury molecule-1 (KIM-1), liver fatty acid binding protein, and albumin. During a median follow-up of 3.0 years (interquartile range, 2.2-3.6 years), 139 participants died (55 deaths per 1000 person-years). Among patients with clinical AKI, the highest tertiles of peak urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin, IL-18, KIM-1, liver fatty acid binding protein, and albumin associated independently with a 2.0- to 3.2-fold increased risk for mortality compared with the lowest tertiles. In patients without clinical AKI, the highest tertiles of peak IL-18 and KIM-1 also associated independently with long-term mortality (adjusted hazard ratios [95% confidence intervals] of 1.2 [1.0 to 1.5] and 1.8 [1.4 to 2.3] for IL-18 and KIM-1, respectively), and yielded continuous net reclassification improvements of 0.26 and 0.37, respectively, for the prediction of 3-year mortality. In conclusion, urinary biomarkers of kidney injury, particularly IL-18 and KIM-1, in the immediate postoperative period provide additional prognostic information for 3-year mortality risk in patients with and without clinical AKI.
Journal of the American Society of Nephrology 12/2013; · 9.47 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Using either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEi) or an angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) the morning of surgery may lead to 'functional' postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI), measured by an abrupt increase in serum creatinine. Whether the same is true for 'structural' AKI, measured with new urinary biomarkers, is unknown.
The TRIBE-AKI study was a prospective cohort study of 1594 adults undergoing cardiac surgery at six hospitals between July 2007 and December 2010. We classified the degree of exposure to ACEi/ARB into three categories: 'none' (no exposure prior to surgery), 'held' (on chronic ACEi/ARB but held on the morning of surgery) or 'continued' (on chronic ACEi/ARB and taken the morning of surgery). The co-primary outcomes were 'functional' AKI based upon changes in pre- to postoperative serum creatinine, and 'structural AKI', based upon peak postoperative levels of four urinary biomarkers of kidney injury.
Across the three levels (none, held and continued) of ACEi/ARB exposure there was a graded increase in functional AKI, as defined by AKI stage 1 or worse; (31, 34 and 42%, P for trend 0.03) and by percentage change in serum creatinine from pre- to postoperative (25, 26 and 30%, P for trend 0.03). In contrast, there were no differences in structural AKI across the strata of ACEi/ARB exposure, as assessed by four structural AKI biomarkers (neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin, kidney injury molecule-1, interleukin-18 or liver-fatty acid-binding protein).
Preoperative ACEi/ARB usage was associated with functional but not structural acute kidney injury. As AKI from ACEi/ARB in this setting is unclear, interventional studies testing different strategies of perioperative ACEi/ARB use are warranted.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: AKI is common and novel biomarkers may help provide earlier diagnosis and prognosis of AKI in the postoperative period. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: This was a prospective, multicenter cohort study involving 1219 adults and 311 children consecutively enrolled at eight academic medical centers. Performance of two urine biomarkers, kidney injury molecule-1 (KIM-1) and liver fatty acid-binding protein (L-FABP), alone or in combination with other injury biomarkers during the perioperative period was evaluated. AKI was defined as doubling of serum creatinine or need for acute dialysis. RESULTS: KIM-1 peaked 2 days after surgery in adults and 1 day after surgery in children, whereas L-FABP peaked within 6 hours after surgery in both age groups. In multivariable analyses, the highest quintile of the first postoperative KIM-1 level was associated with AKI compared with the lowest quintile in adults, whereas the first postoperative L-FABP was not associated with AKI. Both KIM-1 and L-FABP were not significantly associated with AKI in adults or children after adjusting for other kidney injury biomarkers (neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin and IL-18). The highest area under the curves achievable for discrimination for AKI were 0.78 in adults using urine KIM-1 from 6 to 12 hours, urine IL-18 from day 2, and plasma neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin from day 2 and 0.78 in children using urine IL-18 from 0 to 6 hours and urine L-FABP from day 2. CONCLUSIONS: Postoperative elevations of KIM-1 associate with AKI and adverse outcmes in adults but were not independent of other AKI biomarkers. A panel of multiple biomarkers provided moderate discrimination for AKI.
Clinical Journal of the American Society of Nephrology 04/2013; · 5.07 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is common after cardiac surgery and is associated with adverse patient outcomes. Urinary cystatin C (CysC) level is a biomarker of proximal tubule function and may increase earlier in AKI than serum creatinine level. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTINGS & PARTICIPANTS: The TRIBE AKI (Translational Research Investigating Biomarker Endpoints in AKI) Consortium prospectively enrolled 1,203 adults and 299 children and adolescents at 8 institutions in 2007-2009. INDEX TEST: Urinary CysC (in milligrams per liter) within the first 12 hours after surgery. OUTCOME: Serum creatinine-based AKI was defined as AKI Network stage 1 (mild AKI) and doubling of serum creatinine from the preoperative value or need for dialysis during hospitalization (severe AKI). OTHER MEASUREMENTS: Analyses were adjusted for characteristics used clinically for AKI risk stratification, including age, sex, race, estimated glomerular filtration rate, diabetes, hypertension, heart failure, nonelective surgery, cardiac catheterization within 72 hours, type of surgery, myocardial infarction, and cardiopulmonary bypass time longer than 120 minutes. RESULTS: Urinary CysC level measured in the early postoperative period (0-6 and 6-12 hours postoperatively) correlated with both mild and severe AKI in adults and children. However, after analyses were adjusted for other factors, the effect was attenuated for both forms of AKI in both cohorts. LIMITATIONS: Limited numbers of patients with severe AKI and in-hospital dialysis treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Urinary CysC values are not associated significantly with the development of AKI after cardiac surgery in adults and children.
American Journal of Kidney Diseases 01/2013; · 5.76 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Evidence supports early use of non-biologic DMARDs to prevent irreversible damage in inflammatory arthritides, including rheumatoid arthritis (RA), psoriatic arthritis (PsA), and possibly ankylosing spondylitis (AS). However, there is a paucity of data exploring their effects on pain as a primary outcome in these conditions. This systematic literature review investigated the effect of non-biologic DMARDs on pain levels in IA and examined whether disease duration impacted efficacy. We searched Medline, Embase, Cochrane Central, and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, abstracts from the 2008 to 2010 American College of Rheumatology annual congresses, and citation lists of retrieved publications. Only randomized, double-blind controlled trials were analyzed. Quality was assessed with the Risk of Bias tool. Descriptive statistics were used in meta-analysis. 9,860 articles were identified, with 33 eligible for inclusion: 8 in AS, 6 in PsA, 9 in early RA (ERA), and 10 in established RA. In ERA and established RA, all studies of DMARDs (monotherapy and combination therapies) consistently revealed statistically significant reductions in pain except three oral gold studies. In AS, sulfasalazine studies showed significant pain reduction, whereas use of other DMARDs did not. In PsA, 5 of 6 studies reported VAS-pain improvement. From the studies included, we were unable to assess the influence of disease duration on pain outcomes in these rheumatic conditions. DMARDs improve pain in early and established RA. Sulfasalazine may improve pain in AS and PsA. Further study is needed to assess the relationship between disease duration and DMARD efficacy in reducing pain in these conditions.
Rheumatology International 01/2013; 33(5). · 1.63 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Escherichia coli O157:H7 is a common cause of acute bacterial gastroenteritis, which can be devastating in outbreak situations. We studied the risk of cardiovascular disease following such an outbreak in Walkerton, Ontario, in May 2000. METHODS:In this community-based cohort study, we linked data from the Walkerton Health Study (2002-2008) to Ontario's large healthcare databases. We included 4 groups of adults: 3 groups of Walkerton participants (153 with severe gastroenteritis, 414 with mild gastroenteritis, 331 with no gastroenteritis) and a group of 11 263 residents from the surrounding communities that were unaffected by the outbreak. The primary outcome was a composite of death or first major cardiovascular event (admission to hospital for acute myocardial infarction, stroke or congestive heart failure, or evidence of associated procedures). The secondary outcome was first major cardiovascular event censored for death. Adults were followed for an average of 7.4 years. RESULTS:During the study period, 1174 adults (9.7%) died or experienced a major cardiovascular event. Compared with residents of the surrounding communities, the risk of death or cardiovascular event was not elevated among Walkerton participants with severe or mild gastroenteritis (hazard ratio [HR] for severe gastroenteritis 0.74, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.38-1.43, mild gastroenteritis HR 0.64, 95% CI 0.42-0.98). Compared with Walkerton participants who had no gastroenteritis, risk of death or cardiovascular event was not elevated among participants with severe or mild gastroenteritis. INTERPRETATION:There was no increase in the risk of cardiovascular disease in the decade following acute infection during a major E. coli O157:H7 outbreak.
Canadian Medical Association Journal 11/2012; · 5.81 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The primary aim of this study was to compare the sensitivity and rapidity of acute kidney injury (AKI) detection by cystatin C level relative to creatinine level after cardiac surgery. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTINGS & PARTICIPANTS: 1,150 high-risk adult cardiac surgery patients in the TRIBE-AKI (Translational Research Investigating Biomarker Endpoints for Acute Kidney Injury) Consortium. PREDICTOR: Changes in serum creatinine and cystatin C levels. OUTCOME: Postsurgical incidence of AKI. MEASUREMENTS: Serum creatinine and cystatin C were measured at the preoperative visit and daily on postoperative days 1-5. To allow comparisons between changes in creatinine and cystatin C levels, AKI end points were defined by the relative increases in each marker from baseline (25%, 50%, and 100%) and the incidence of AKI was compared based on each marker. Secondary aims were to compare clinical outcomes among patients defined as having AKI by cystatin C and/or creatinine levels. RESULTS: Overall, serum creatinine level detected more cases of AKI than cystatin C level: 35% developed a ≥25% increase in serum creatinine level, whereas only 23% had a ≥25% increase in cystatin C level (P < 0.001). Creatinine level also had higher proportions meeting the 50% (14% and 8%; P < 0.001) and 100% (4% and 2%; P = 0.005) thresholds for AKI diagnosis. Clinical outcomes generally were not statistically different for AKI cases detected by creatinine or cystatin C level. However, for each AKI threshold, patients with AKI confirmed by both markers had a significantly higher risk of the combined mortality/dialysis outcome compared with patients with AKI detected by creatinine level alone (P = 0.002). LIMITATIONS: There were few adverse clinical outcomes, limiting our ability to detect differences in outcomes between subgroups of patients based on their definitions of AKI. CONCLUSIONS: In this large multicenter study, we found that cystatin C level was less sensitive for AKI detection than creatinine level. However, confirmation by cystatin C level appeared to identify a subset of patients with AKI with a substantially higher risk of adverse outcomes.
American Journal of Kidney Diseases 07/2012; · 5.76 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Current tools to predict outcomes after kidney transplantation are inadequate. The objective of this study was to determine the association of perioperative urine neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin and IL-18 with poor 1-year allograft function (return to dialysis or estimated GFR<30 ml/min per 1.73 m(2)).
Neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin and IL-18 from early post-transplant urine was measured in this prospective, multicenter study of deceased-donor kidney transplant recipients. The outcome of poor allograft function at 1 year relative to these biomarkers using multivariable logistic regression and net reclassification improvement was examined. Also, the interaction between delayed graft function and the biomarkers on the outcome were evaluated, and the change in biomarkers over consecutive days related to the outcome using trend tests was examined.
Mean age for the 153 recipients was 54 ± 13 years. Delayed graft function occurred in 42%, and 24 (16%) recipients had the 1-year outcome. Upper median values for neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin and IL-18 on the first postoperative day had adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence interval) of 6.0 (1.5-24.0) and 5.5 (1.4-21.5), respectively. Net reclassification improvement (95% confidence interval) was significant for neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin and IL-18 at 36% (1%-71%) and 45% (8%-83%), respectively. There was no significant interaction between biomarkers and delayed graft function on the outcome. Change in biomarkers moderately trended with the outcome.
Perioperative urine neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin and IL-18 are associated with poor 1-year allograft function, suggesting their potential for identifying patients for therapies that minimize the risk of additional injury.
Clinical Journal of the American Society of Nephrology 06/2012; 7(8):1224-33. · 5.07 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Being able to predict whether AKI will progress could improve monitoring and care, guide patient counseling, and assist with enrollment into trials of AKI treatment. Using samples from the Translational Research Investigating Biomarker Endpoints in AKI study (TRIBE-AKI), we evaluated whether kidney injury biomarkers measured at the time of first clinical diagnosis of early AKI after cardiac surgery can forecast AKI severity. Biomarkers included urinary IL-18, urinary albumin to creatinine ratio (ACR), and urinary and plasma neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL); each measurement was on the day of AKI diagnosis in 380 patients who developed at least AKI Network (AKIN) stage 1 AKI. The primary end point (progression of AKI defined by worsening AKIN stage) occurred in 45 (11.8%) patients. Using multivariable logistic regression, we determined the risk of AKI progression. After adjustment for clinical predictors, compared with biomarker values in the lowest two quintiles, the highest quintiles of three biomarkers remained associated with AKI progression: IL-18 (odds ratio=3.0, 95% confidence interval=1.3-7.3), ACR (odds ratio=3.4, 95% confidence interval=1.3-9.1), and plasma NGAL (odds ratio=7.7, 95% confidence interval=2.6-22.5). Each biomarker improved risk classification compared with the clinical model alone, with plasma NGAL performing the best (category-free net reclassification improvement of 0.69, P<0.0001). In conclusion, biomarkers measured on the day of AKI diagnosis improve risk stratification and identify patients at higher risk for progression of AKI and worse patient outcomes.
Journal of the American Society of Nephrology 03/2012; 23(5):905-14. · 9.47 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Acute kidney injury (AKI) after cardiac surgery is associated with poor outcomes and is difficult to predict. We conducted a prospective study to evaluate whether preoperative brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels predict postoperative AKI among patients undergoing cardiac surgery.
The Translational Research Investigating Biomarker Endpoints in Acute Kidney Injury (TRIBE-AKI) study enrolled 1139 adults undergoing cardiac surgery at 6 hospitals from 2007 to 2009 who were selected for high AKI risk. Preoperative BNP was categorized into quintiles. AKI was common with the use of Acute Kidney Injury Network definitions; at least mild AKI was a ≥0.3-mg/dL or 50% rise in creatinine (n=407, 36%), and severe AKI was either a doubling of creatinine or the requirement of acute renal replacement therapy (n=58, 5.1%). In analyses adjusted for preoperative characteristics, preoperative BNP was a strong and independent predictor of mild and severe AKI. Compared with the lowest BNP quintile, the highest quintile had significantly higher risk of at least mild AKI (risk ratio, 1.87; 95% confidence interval, 1.40-2.49) and severe AKI (risk ratio, 3.17; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-9.48). After adjustment for clinical predictors, the addition of BNP improved the area under the curve to predict at least mild AKI (0.67-0.69; P=0.02) and severe AKI (0.73-0.75; P=0.11). Compared with clinical parameters alone, BNP modestly improved risk prediction of AKI cases into lower and higher risk (continuous net reclassification index; at least mild AKI: risk ratio, 0.183; 95% confidence interval, 0.061-0.314; severe AKI: risk ratio, 0.231; 95% confidence interval, 0.067-0.506).
Preoperative BNP level is associated with postoperative AKI in high-risk patients undergoing cardiac surgery. If confirmed in other types of patients and surgeries, preoperative BNP may be a valuable component of future efforts to improve preoperative risk stratification and discrimination among surgical candidates.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Acute kidney injury (AKI) occurs commonly after pediatric cardiac surgery and associates with poor outcomes. Biomarkers may help the prediction or early identification of AKI, potentially increasing opportunities for therapeutic interventions. Here, we conducted a prospective, multicenter cohort study involving 311 children undergoing surgery for congenital cardiac lesions to evaluate whether early postoperative measures of urine IL-18, urine neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), or plasma NGAL could identify which patients would develop AKI and other adverse outcomes. Urine IL-18 and urine and plasma NGAL levels peaked within 6 hours after surgery. Severe AKI, defined by dialysis or doubling in serum creatinine during hospital stay, occurred in 53 participants at a median of 2 days after surgery. The first postoperative urine IL-18 and urine NGAL levels strongly associated with severe AKI. After multivariable adjustment, the highest quintiles of urine IL-18 and urine NGAL associated with 6.9- and 4.1-fold higher odds of AKI, respectively, compared with the lowest quintiles. Elevated urine IL-18 and urine NGAL levels associated with longer hospital stay, longer intensive care unit stay, and duration of mechanical ventilation. The accuracy of urine IL-18 and urine NGAL for diagnosis of severe AKI was moderate, with areas under the curve of 0.72 and 0.71, respectively. The addition of these urine biomarkers improved risk prediction over clinical models alone as measured by net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement. In conclusion, urine IL-18 and urine NGAL, but not plasma NGAL, associate with subsequent AKI and poor outcomes among children undergoing cardiac surgery.
Journal of the American Society of Nephrology 08/2011; 22(9):1737-47. · 9.47 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a frequent complication of cardiac surgery and increases morbidity and mortality. The identification of reliable biomarkers that allow earlier diagnosis of AKI in the postoperative period may increase the success of therapeutic interventions. Here, we conducted a prospective, multicenter cohort study involving 1219 adults undergoing cardiac surgery to evaluate whether early postoperative measures of urine IL-18, urine neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), or plasma NGAL could identify which patients would develop AKI and other adverse patient outcomes. Urine IL-18 and urine and plasma NGAL levels peaked within 6 hours after surgery. After multivariable adjustment, the highest quintiles of urine IL-18 and plasma NGAL associated with 6.8-fold and 5-fold higher odds of AKI, respectively, compared with the lowest quintiles. Elevated urine IL-18 and urine and plasma NGAL levels associated with longer length of hospital stay, longer intensive care unit stay, and higher risk for dialysis or death. The clinical prediction model for AKI had an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.69. Urine IL-18 and plasma NGAL significantly improved the AUC to 0.76 and 0.75, respectively. Urine IL-18 and plasma NGAL significantly improved risk prediction over the clinical models alone as measured by net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). In conclusion, urine IL-18, urine NGAL, and plasma NGAL associate with subsequent AKI and poor outcomes among adults undergoing cardiac surgery.
Journal of the American Society of Nephrology 08/2011; 22(9):1748-57. · 9.47 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Acute kidney injury (AKI) after cardiac surgery is associated with poor outcomes, but is challenging to predict from information available before surgery.
Prospective cohort study.
The TRIBE-AKI (Translational Research Investigating Biomarker Endpoints in Acute Kidney Injury) Consortium enrolled 1,147 adults undergoing cardiac surgery at 6 hospitals from 2007-2009; participants were selected for high AKI risk.
Presurgical values for cystatin C, creatinine, and creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were categorized into quintiles and grouped as "best" (quintiles 1-2), "intermediate" (quintiles 3-4), and "worst" (quintile 5) kidney function.
The primary outcome was AKI Network (AKIN) stage 1 or higher; ≥0.3 mg/dL or 50% increase in creatinine level.
Analyses were adjusted for characteristics used clinically for presurgical risk stratification.
Average age was 71 ± 10 years (mean ± standard deviation); serum creatinine, 1.1 ± 0.3 mg/dL; eGFR-Cr, 74 ± 9 mL/min/1.73 m(2); and cystatin C, 0.9 ± 0.3 mg/L. 407 (36%) participants developed AKI during hospitalization. Adjusted odds ratios for intermediate and worst kidney function by cystatin C were 1.9 (95% CI, 1.4-2.7) and 4.8 (95% CI, 2.9-7.7) compared with 1.2 (95% CI, 0.9-1.7) and 1.8 (95% CI, 1.2-2.6) for creatinine and 1.0 (95% CI, 0.7-1.4) and 1.7 (95% CI, 1.1-2.3) for eGFR-Cr categories, respectively. After adjustment for clinical predictors, the C statistic to predict AKI was 0.70 without kidney markers, 0.69 with creatinine, and 0.72 with cystatin C. Cystatin C also substantially improved AKI risk classification compared with creatinine, based on a net reclassification index of 0.21 (P < 0.001).
The ability of these kidney biomarkers to predict risk of dialysis-requiring AKI or death could not be assessed reliably in our study because of a small number of patients with either outcome.
Presurgical cystatin C is better than creatinine or creatinine-based eGFR at forecasting the risk of AKI after cardiac surgery.
American Journal of Kidney Diseases 05/2011; 58(3):366-73. · 5.76 Impact Factor