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Suleiman Sa'ad
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ABSTRACT: This paper used annual time series data for the period 1973 to 2007 in two econometric techniques [the structural time series model (STSM) and unrestricted error correction model (UECM)] developed to estimate petroleum products (gasoline and diesel) and demand functions for the transportation sector of Indonesia and make a forecast of per capita consumption of the total products until the year 2030 under three scenarios. The results from both models revealed that the demand for petroleum products are price inelastic, with an estimated long-run price elasticity of - 0.19 in the STSM and - 0.16 in the UECM. However, total petroleum is income elastic in the long run with a long-run income elasticity of 0.97 under the STSM and 0.88 in the UECM. The estimated demand functions are used to construct a projection of future transportation demand for petroleum products until 2030 under three alternative scenarios: business as usual, low case scenario and high case scenario. The results of this exercise suggests that by 2030, the demand for total petroleum products per capita for Indonesia will increase to about 0.498 toe in the STSM and 0.476 toe in the UECM under the baseline scenario, 0.197 toe in the STSM and 0.186 toe in the UECM under low case scenario and finally, 0.976 toe in the STSM and 0.886 toe under high case scenario. Copyright 2009 The Author. Journal compilation 2009 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
OPEC Review. 01/2009; 33(2):140-154.
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Suleiman Sa'ad
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ABSTRACT: This paper uses selection criteria from various models in a bounds testing approach to cointegration to estimate the price and income elasticities of demand for total petroleum products (gasoline and diesel) and gasoline share in total products in Indonesia. The results suggest that both total products and gasoline share estimates are more responsive to changes in income than changes in the real price of petroleum products. These results have important policy implications as they suggest that policy makers may need to use market-based pricing policies and other policies such as public enlightenment in addition to regulations like minimum energy efficiency standards to promote efficiency and conservation and curb the rising consumption of petroleum products in Indonesia.
Energy Policy. 01/2009; 37(11):4391-4396.
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Suleiman Sa'ad
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ABSTRACT: This study estimates the electricity demand function for the residential sector of South Korea with the aim of examining the effects of improved energy efficiency, structural factors and household lifestyles on electricity consumption. In the study, time series data for the period from 1973 to 2007 is used in a structural time series model to estimate the long-term price and income elasticities and annual growth of underlying energy demand trend (UEDT) at the end of the estimation period. The result shows a long-term income elasticity of 1.33 and a long-term price elasticity of -0.27% with -0.93% as the percentage growth of UEDT at the end of the estimation period. This result suggests that, in order to encourage energy efficiency in the residential sector, the government should complement the market based pricing policies with non-market policies such as minimum energy efficiency standards and public enlightenment.
Energy Policy. 01/2009; 37(12):5469-5474.
